Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2552.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2594.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.65%, an increase of 41.49% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, and there is an upward trend at the weekend. On January 9, the urea commodity index was 120.65, the same as yesterday, down 16.55% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 117.00% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Cost support was strengthened, downstream demand improved, and urea supply was insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea is quoted at 2780 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2560 yuan / ton this weekend, up 70 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2560 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Yangmei plain urea quoted 2520 yuan / ton this weekend, up 40 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 4710.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5013.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.44%, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal rose slightly. The quotation increased from 822.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 853.75 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.80%, down 1.73% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 4410.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4443.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.76%, a year-on-year increase of 35.74% compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the upstream support of urea is good, which has a positive impact on the price of urea. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was adjusted at a low level, and the quotation was 9666.67 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the bidding for summer pipe fertilizer was implemented, which boosted market confidence in Pakistan’s export. The market price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. In terms of supply, Ruixing phase III unit was shut down for maintenance, mingshengda unit was shut down for a short time, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, urea cost support was strengthened, downstream demand improved, urea supply was insufficient, and urea increased slightly in the future.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In mid and late January, the domestic urea market may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have increased slightly, and the cost support is good. The bidding for Xiaguan fertilizer was launched, and the export of 150000 tons of urea to neighboring countries boosted market confidence. At the same time, some urea enterprises stopped their units for a short time, the supply was tight, the shipment was limited near the Spring Festival, the manufacturers had a strong attitude of supporting the price, and the urea market price in the future may fluctuate slightly.