Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong increased this week. The quotation increased from 2740.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2750 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.36%, a year-on-year increase of 56.25%. Overall, the urea market rose this week, and the urea commodity index was 127.91 on August 20.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week is temporarily stable. Yangmei plain urea has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2750 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Open water chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 5433.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5633.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.68%, a year-on-year increase of 129.62% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell. The quotation fell from 1055.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1040.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.42%, up 85.88% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell, and the quotation fell from 4766.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4683.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.75%, up 51.08% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 13533.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 13966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 3.20%.

From the perspective of demand: the transaction is mainly just needed, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. From the perspective of supply: urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, and the early maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed production, with a daily output of about 155000 tons, which has increased. However, the follow-up of new orders is not smooth, and the shipping pressure increases. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is slow.

The future price of urea is bearish

In late August, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, the urea plant has recovered and the supply is slow, but at present, the agricultural demand everywhere is declining, the industrial demand is general, the downstream merchants buy up or not buy down, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high-priced urea, and the future market price may fluctuate or fall slightly.