1、 Price trend

The price of toluene fell this week, according to the data from the business news agency’s block list. On July 11, the price of toluene was 5860 yuan / ton; The price of this Sunday (July 18) was 5780 yuan / ton, down 80 yuan / ton or 1.37% compared with last week; It was 69.5% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, the toluene market was driven by the rise of crude oil, and the demand remained weak. This week, the international crude oil showed a decline as a whole, and Sinopec’s listing price was lowered, which aggravated the wait-and-see situation of toluene Market. In terms of external market, as of July 16, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 756 US dollars / ton, up 15 US dollars / ton, or 2.02%, from July 9.

In terms of crude oil, it is reported that OPEC + has reached an agreement or will further increase production from August. In addition, the spread of the mutated virus also depressed oil prices, and crude oil showed a downward trend this week. On July 9, Brent fell by $1.96 per barrel, or 2.59%; WTI fell $2.75 per barrel, or 3.69%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China remained stable this week, with domestic goods at 14333.33 yuan / ton, up 36.51% over the same period last year. The domestic TDI market is deadlocked in consolidation operation, the atmosphere in the market is rather wait-and-see, the enthusiasm of the downstream is not high, the purchase is mainly rigid demand, the offer of the goods holder is high, and the intention to sell is not high, and the market transaction is general.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable for two consecutive weeks this week, at 7100 yuan / ton, up 47.92% year-on-year. As of July 16, the closing prices in Asia were US $903-905 / T FOB Korea and US $921-923 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Downstream demand maintains just demand, crude oil has downward pressure, and toluene is expected to hold a stalemate next week. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene port inventory and downstream demand (gasoline blending market) on toluene prices.