According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 31st, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate was 43000 yuan/ton. Overall, lithium iron phosphate showed a broad downward trend in January, with the mainstream price currently around 43000 yuan/ton. The price in early January was 46000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of January was 43000 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 6.52% for the entire month of January, putting pressure on both cost and demand. Lithium iron phosphate is moving forward under pressure.

In January, the price of lithium iron phosphate mainly experienced a narrow decline, with an overall price drop of 6.52%, reaching 3000 yuan/ton. Currently, lithium iron phosphate is showing a continuous downward trend, mainly influenced by upstream lithium carbonate, passively following the decline. Upstream lithium carbonate is experiencing a cliff like decline, and lithium iron phosphate faces enormous cost pressure. The cost side is almost unsupported, and downstream demand is significantly insufficient. The demand for power vehicles is slowing down, and the demand is insufficient. Coupled with cost pressure, lithium iron phosphate manufacturers continue to lower prices, resulting in a significant decline. The operating load of enterprises continues to decrease, making it difficult for industry demand to improve and market sentiment is low.

Commodity index: On February 1st, the chemical index was 866 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that the market for lithium iron phosphate is mainly in a downward trend, and it is difficult for lithium iron phosphate to have a turning point in the short term.

In January, the domestic MIBK market experienced a significant decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the market reported a price of 15033 yuan/ton on January 1st, but dropped to 13666 yuan/ton on January 31st, a decrease of 9.09% for the month.

In early January, with tight spot resources, traders pushed up their offers. In the latter half of the year, with lower acceptance of high priced MIBK by downstream and intermediaries, a weak buying atmosphere, coupled with insufficient confidence in the future market, traders increased their enthusiasm for shipping, and prices gradually declined.

The raw material acetone market has risen narrowly. As of now, the negotiated price of acetone in the East China region is between 6950-7000 yuan/ton. As the holiday approaches, the trading atmosphere in the market is average. At the beginning of the month, due to the shortage of port supply, domestic factories are still in a loss making state, and traders are firm in their offers. After the market surged, with insufficient downstream demand support, the market quickly fell and transactions were flat.

From a terminal perspective, the intention to purchase large orders has decreased, and the demand is mostly for small orders to follow up. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and tend to operate targeted contracts, but traders are holding onto the market and reluctant to sell, resulting in a significant increase in small order prices.

It is expected that the weak and volatile operation will be the main trend in February. As the spring break approaches, the trading enthusiasm of manufacturers in the market is not high. Factories will mainly deliver orders, and inventory pressure is not high. It is expected that factory inventory may rise during the Spring Festival period, and downstream demand for replenishment will be the main trend after the holiday. There may be a slight increase but the cycle is relatively short. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream work and the production of new equipment in Anhui.

Introduction: Neopentanediol (NPG), a white crystalline solid, odorless, and hygroscopic. It is mainly used to produce plasticizers, surfactants, insulating materials, printing inks, polymerization inhibitors, synthetic aviation lubricant oil additives, etc. of unsaturated resins, oil-free alkyd resins, polyurethane foam plastics and elastomers; Meanwhile, neopentyl glycol is also an excellent solvent that can be used for the selective separation of aromatic hydrocarbons and cycloalkane hydrocarbons; Its amino baking paint has good light retention and does not turn yellow; It can also be used as a raw material for producing stabilizers and insecticides.

The market situation of new pentanediol in 2023 has fluctuated widely

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic market for new pentanediol in 2023 has experienced ups and downs, with a wide range of fluctuations. The average price at the beginning of the year was 9133.33 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 9800 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 7.30%. From the price trend chart of neopentyl glycol, it can be seen that the highest price of neopentyl glycol in 2023 was 11200 yuan/ton in early March, and the lowest price was 9133.33 yuan/ton in early January, with a maximum annual amplitude of 22.63%.

From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that in 2023, the price of new pentanediol increased more than decreased, and the market trend showed a first rise, then fall, then rise and then fall. The highest increase was 16.14%, and the largest decrease was 8.95% in June. In the first quarter of 2023, the downstream operating rate increased after the holiday, and demand was good. The price increased from 9133.33 yuan/ton on January 1st to 10666.67 yuan/ton on March 31st, an increase of 16.79%. In the second quarter, the upstream isobutyraldehyde price plummeted significantly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream paint market was average, and demand weakened. The market had a strong bearish atmosphere, and the price of neopentyl glycol dropped significantly. The price dropped from 10666.67 yuan/ton on April 1st to 9500 yuan/ton on June 30th, a decrease of 10.94%. In the third quarter, the market circulation of goods decreased, and manufacturers had a strong intention to raise prices. The price increased from 9500 yuan/ton on July 1st to 10450 yuan/ton on September 30th, an increase of 10.00%. In the fourth quarter, the price of isobutyraldehyde plummeted, cost support weakened, and the price of neopentyl glycol fluctuated and fell. The price dropped from 10450 yuan/ton on October 1st to 9800 yuan/ton on December 31st, a decrease of 6.22%.

How will the market situation of new pentanediol develop in 2024?

From the perspective of production capacity: Data shows that in the first half of 2023, the domestic new pentanediol industry added 100000 tons of production capacity. Currently, the total domestic production capacity has reached 680000 tons, with a growth rate of 17.2%. Despite the continuous increase in downstream demand, the satellite chemistry and BASF Zhanjiang integrated base still have plans for production and capacity expansion. It is expected that the production capacity of new pentanediol will exceed 700000 tons by 2024.

From the perspective of market demand, the development of the polyester industry has slowed down in the past two years, but the terminal coating industry is slowly recovering. The tone of the national real estate stabilization policy remains unchanged, which is beneficial for the paint industry. At the same time, under environmental protection policies, the country’s control of VOC emissions is becoming increasingly strict, and the powder paint industry has entered a period of rapid growth. There is still room for growth in the development of the new pentanediol industry.

Looking at the future: With increasing demand, the price center of new pentanediol may shift upwards in 2024

From January 19 to January 26, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices this week at 90750 yuan/ton, up 1.97%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been continuously rising in recent times.

This week’s European strategic small metal antimony price situation (unit: USD/ton)

Variety/ January 19th/ January 26th/ Rise and fall

European small metal antimony/ 12450./12750./+300

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has risen, reaching $12750/ton as of January 26th, up $300/ton. Currently, supply is tight and the market atmosphere is strong.

The antimony ingot market has been continuously rising since mid December, reaching 90750 yuan/ton this week, breaking through the 90000 yuan/ton mark. From the perspective of supply and demand, due to the increasing difficulty of importing antimony ore from overseas, the domestic supply at the mining end is still tight, and the reluctance of smelters to sell is further strengthened. The mentality of price support is strong, and as overseas prices continue to rise, the overall sentiment of the domestic spot market is also strong. In the future, Business Society predicts that antimony ingots will continue to maintain a slight upward trend in the short term and continue until the end of January. As antimony ingot manufacturers increase their production, this increase will gradually come to an end.

The price trend of antimony oxide this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety/ January 19th/ January 26th/ Rise and fall

99.5% antimony trioxide./77500./77500/-

99.8% antimony trioxide./79500./79500/-

The antimony oxide market is currently operating steadily this week. At present, the domestic spot market atmosphere is good, and overseas sales are showing positive performance. Antimony oxide enterprises have been actively inquiring recently, and the market supply is tight, resulting in a strong market atmosphere.

Related data:

On January 28th, the base metal index was 1183 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 26.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 84.27% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 28th, the non-ferrous index was 1104 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.22% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 81.88% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 4th week of 2024 (1.22-1.26), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (3.95%), nickel (2.95%), and zinc (2.61%). There are a total of 7 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are dysprosium oxide (-1.03%), lead (-0.79%), and praseodymium neodymium oxide (-0.62%). The average increase and decrease this week was 0.49%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 833 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 883 yuan/ton on January 29th. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 6.00% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate has increased this month. At the beginning of the month, the domestic market price of ammonium sulfate was lowered. Foreign orders are relatively low, domestic market demand is poor, downstream delivery capacity is weakened, and market bearish sentiment is strong. In mid January, the bidding price for ammonium sulfate significantly increased. The ammonium sulfate market has seen an increase in inquiries and an improved trading atmosphere. The rise in international urea prices has indirectly benefited the ammonium sulfate market. In late January, the ammonium sulfate market saw a narrow consolidation and operation. Export orders are supported, with downstream restocking mainly based on demand. As of January 29th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei region is around 810 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 890-930 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from October 30, 2023 to January 22, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle has seen mixed ups and downs. There was a significant increase in January, with the maximum increase being 8.62% in the week ending January 15th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the ammonium sulfate market has recently seen a slight consolidation and operation. Downstream on-demand procurement, market transactions are still acceptable. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, ammonium sulfate enterprises have a clear attitude towards shipping. It is expected that the trend of ammonium sulfate market will slightly decrease in the short term.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market has shown an upward trend this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, on January 26th, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 20666.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+0.65% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market turned sideways, with low production line operating rates. The overall industry load was around 61%, unchanged from last week. The supply of goods in the market was tight during the week, and the inventory position was average. The pricing operation of enterprises was increased, and the support from suppliers was still sufficient. Downstream textile, electrical, and modification enterprises mainly maintain production as their main source of goods, with pre holiday stocking centered around weak and rigid demand, and weak support for spot goods on the demand side. On the upstream side, the price of hexamethylene diamine has been consolidating and running, but the news of international major factories raising prices in the future has been implemented, boosting market confidence. The market price of adipic acid has risen with the rise of upstream pure benzene, providing stronger support for PA66. Overall, the support from the cost side for the PA66 market is relatively strong. At present, the market supply and demand are weak, and the price of PA66 is mainly guided by the cost side.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 rose over the weekend after a sideways trend this week. The prices of raw materials have both increased, providing stronger support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a low level of horizontal load, and the inventory position is still acceptable. The demand side still focuses on maintaining production and has poor feedback on high priced sources of goods. It is expected that the weak supply-demand pattern before the holiday will be difficult to change, and the main positive news for PA66 in the future will still come from the cost side, which may continue to be strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda was weak this week, with an average market price of 2591.8 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2509.8 yuan/ton on the weekend, a price drop of 3.16% and a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. On January 21st, the baking soda commodity index was 166.59, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.36% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 88.73% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is weak and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is strong, with a mainstream market quotation of around 2200-2700 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the upstream soda ash prices for baking soda have been weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2500 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the weekend was 2440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.4%, a decrease of 8.48% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, with weak performance in the upstream raw material soda ash sector. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other sectors of baking soda have been purchasing on demand in recent times, and there is a supply-demand game. Overall, it is expected that baking soda prices will be weak in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of PVC carbide method SG5 fluctuated and fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic PVC price was 5550 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price was 5538 yuan/ton, with a 0.22% increase in price during the week.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC spot market prices fluctuated this week. At present, the spot market situation is still good, and the trading situation is average. The manufacturer’s quotation is mainly stable. Downstream just needs to pick up goods, considering that the end of the year is approaching, some small processing plants are considering a holiday. Downstream demand is slowing down, enterprise inventories are high, and actual transactions are cautious. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 carbide materials in China is mostly around 5280-5750 yuan/ton.

On January 18th, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $73.95 per barrel, with an increase of $1.47 or 2.0%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $79.10 per barrel, an increase of $1.22 or 1.6%.

In terms of calcium carbide, according to data monitored by Business Society, the prices of calcium carbide manufacturers have remained stable this week, with an average domestic price of 3000 yuan/ton. The upstream blue charcoal market is consolidating at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall narrowly in late January, with consolidation being the main trend.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society PVC analysts believe that the PVC spot market has had average trading this week. The upstream calcium carbide is temporarily stable with average support. The downstream procurement situation is cautious, and the market has a general demand for PVC spot goods, mainly based on demand. It is expected that the PVC spot market will experience slight fluctuations and consolidation in the short term, and we will closely monitor changes in the news.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of butyl rubber in the domestic market remained stable this week, with a market price of around 17675 yuan/ton as of the 12th.

High purity isobutylene raw material: Recently, international crude oil prices have fluctuated upwards, leading to a 0.9% increase in the price of high-purity isobutylene raw material.

In terms of demand: The domestic semi steel tire industry has a load rate of over 78% this week, while the full steel tire industry has a load rate of over 62%. The load rate of the steel tire industry is higher than last week.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that both the cost and demand sides of butyl rubber have good support, and it is expected that the butyl rubber market will fluctuate and rise in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has fluctuated slightly recently. At the beginning of the month, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8560.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8550.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%. The price has increased by 2.50% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has fallen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and consolidating in the past three months, and this week’s market is still fluctuating within a small range. The price of raw material pure benzene has slightly increased, and cost support is still acceptable. Downstream demand has not improved, while styrene supply is relatively abundant, inventory decline is slow, and the rise is weak, with limited market fluctuations.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On January 8th, the price of pure benzene was 7413 yuan/ton. On Friday (January 12th), the price of pure benzene was 7480 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.8% from last week and 7.39% from the same period last year. The pure benzene market in East China is still relatively active, with far month and month difference transactions being the main focus. Shandong’s low-priced sources of goods are trading actively, while the high priced sources of goods are trading less than expected.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9600 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of PS was 9566 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% and a decrease of 1.71% compared to the same period last year. The cost support for PS is weak, and demand is weak. It is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price will mainly fluctuate downward in the short term.

The EPS market has slightly increased this week, with an average price of 10000.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials at the beginning of the week and 10050.00 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. Upstream support has weakened, with a focus on market transactions. Terminal profits are meager, and buying follow-up is limited. Overall transactions are average, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere on the market. Buying is mainly in demand.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has remained stable with minor fluctuations, and spot prices of various brands have adjusted narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 12th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10662.5 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price level at the beginning of the month. In the early stage, the domestic ABS industry had a high load, and due to supply pressure, some enterprises had a reduced load. This week, the operating rate of ABS aggregation enterprises has been lowered to below 68%, resulting in stable production and a decrease in inventory due to factory destocking operations. However, the improvement of the company’s profit situation is limited, and there is still pressure on the supply side.

In recent times, international oil prices have continued to rise, with good cost support. Downstream demand is strong for essential goods but weak for spot goods. Specifically, it depends on the market’s situation of buying at low prices before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the short-term volatility of the styrene market will mainly rise.