Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell this week, with a decrease of 4.44%. The average market price dropped from 112.5 yuan/ton last weekend to 107.5 yuan/ton this Friday, and the weekend price fell by 51% year-on-year.

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have fallen this week, with manufacturers operating normally and some companies accumulating inventory, resulting in excessive inventory. The manufacturer maintains stable equipment and is more proactive in shipping goods.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has been operating steadily recently, and cost support has further weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been experiencing a continuous decline in recent times. This week, the price slightly decreased by 0.35%, during the weekend, and the market price was 1780 yuan/ton. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

Future Market Forecast

In late May, the market price of hydrochloric acid may remain stable with some decline. The upstream liquid chlorine market lacks support, and there is still room for further decline in the downstream polyaluminum chloride market. Downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent weak and volatile hydrochloric acid market is the main trend.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 19th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 105800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% compared to last Monday’s price.

Recently, the domestic lithium hydroxide market has declined. Recently, the price of spodumene concentrate has been narrow and weak, with upstream lithium carbonate prices falling and cost support showing weakness. The supply side is mainly stable, while downstream high nickel ternary demand has limited follow-up. The demand side has decreased compared to the previous period, and the market inquiry atmosphere is still acceptable. However, there is a clear wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw materials, and caution is needed to enter the market. The actual transaction volume in the market is still weak, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is falling.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 17th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 106800.00, a decrease of 1.48% compared to May 1st (108400.00). Through observing market changes, the spot market for lithium carbonate has shown a weak decline recently, which lacks support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, short-term demand may still be insufficient in the face of market support, with most businesses adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide market may continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term, while still needing to pay attention to changes in upstream lithium carbonate prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 17th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8483 yuan/ton, and on May 11th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%.

In terms of cost

This week’s break in crude oil prices has a guiding effect on the market, with a slight decline in the white oil market.

In terms of supply and demand

On the supply side, some upstream refineries underwent maintenance in May, resulting in a slight reduction in supply. Light white oil manufacturers have made adjustments to individual models this week. On the demand side, consumption entered the traditional off-season in May, and the transaction atmosphere was light. Downstream low-priced essential purchases were the main focus.

Future Market Forecast

At present, although the trading atmosphere in the market is average, the production costs of refineries are still high. The cost support is strong, and it is expected that the price trend of white oil market will be stable, moderate, and weak, with narrow price fluctuations.

This week, the domestic glycerol market prices remained weak and stable. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 16th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Business Society was 4275.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.16% compared to the beginning of this month (4325.00 yuan/ton).

Influencing factors: The price of palm oil in the market has risen. According to data from Business Society, as of May 16th, the benchmark price of palm oil in Business Society was 8020.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% compared to the beginning of this month (7960.00 yuan/ton). On the external side, the price of glycerol is stable, with a small quantity and not many offers. The domestic downstream market demand for epichlorohydrin is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere is not strong. At present, the market trading volume is insufficient and orders are limited, with a focus on wait-and-see.

Post forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst from Business Society, the market price of raw palm oil has risen, downstream demand is cold, and procurement is not active. In the near future, domestic glycerol has been operating weakly and steadily. For more information, please pay attention to the dynamics of external quotation and market guidance.

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, with an average market price of 3350 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, a decrease of 4.29% compared to the same period last year. On May 10th, the chlor alkali index was 1004 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 52.82% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 41.01% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Upstream caustic soda

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.63% compared to the same period last year. The prices of caustic soda in Shandong region have been consolidating, with a mainstream market quotation of around 690-810 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market quotation of around 810-880 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. In the near future, downstream purchases will be made on demand, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly volatile in the later stage.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week, and downstream demand is average. Traders are actively shipping, but downstream alumina is mostly purchased on demand. Based on the overall supply-demand game, the price of caustic soda may remain volatile in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

The price of boric acid has been weak and stable recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 10th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market is 7275 yuan/ton. At present, domestic boric acid traders offer prices ranging from 6700 to 7800 yuan/ton (actual transaction prices for different brands, specifications, and products are mainly negotiated), with mainstream prices ranging from 6900 to 6950 yuan/ton based on sales volume.

In terms of overseas imported goods, the current foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated at 7500-7800 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 10th, the average market price of imported boric acid was 7656.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the average market price of 7662.5 yuan/ton in early April.

The price of boric acid began to decline from its high point in June 2022, and began to bottom out and fluctuate horizontally in May 2023. Currently, it is still operating in the range of bottom box fluctuations. If there is no positive news, it is expected to be difficult to change in the short term.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the CPP market prices have been weak and stable this week. As of May 9th, domestic producers and traders have reached 25% μ The mainstream quoted price for m’s CPP film is around 10133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.16% from last week’s average price and about 0.16% from the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and fallen this week. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7821.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week (7842.86 yuan/ton), and a decrease of 0.27% compared to the beginning of this month (7842.86 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PP is weak and there is insufficient support on the cost side.

In terms of supply: the membrane enterprise has sufficient inventory and still has surplus. The pressure on the supply side is still in place.

In terms of demand: Enterprise replenishment operations are mainly based on demand, terminal inquiries are cautious, and there is no significant improvement in the trading atmosphere on the market.

Future Market Forecast

The market demand is weak, and the release of inventory is limited. Although prices have weakened, there is not much room for film companies to make concessions. It is expected that CPP film prices may experience weak fluctuations in the near future.

In April, the domestic ABS market rose at a high level, with most brands experiencing an increase in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12475 yuan/ton, a+2.57% increase or decrease from the price level on April 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: The low load pattern of the domestic ABS industry has continued this month, and the operating rate at the end of the month has decreased from 62% at the beginning of the month to around 55%. In the first half of the month, enterprises underwent centralized maintenance, and in the second half, there was also varying degrees of load reduction. The synchronous reduction in production has led to a decrease in on-site supply, resulting in strong support for ABS spot goods from the supply side throughout the month.

Cost factor: The overall trend of ABS upstream three materials in April was positive, with acrylonitrile market maintaining a positive trend throughout the month. The equipment load of the enterprise decreased within the month, and the news of resuming work in the future is uncertain. The supply is declining, providing supplier support for acrylonitrile, and the main enterprises are actively raising prices; The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have strengthened, providing strong support for acrylonitrile; Downstream, there is a surge in pre holiday stocking and consumption, with many bulls gathering in the market. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to operate strongly in the future.

This month, the domestic butadiene market has reached a high level of consolidation and operation. In the first half of the year, the external market rose, with a premium in bidding sources, providing support to the market. In late October, the terminal will replenish its position before the holiday and support spot prices. It is expected that the fluctuation of butadiene prices during the May Day period may be limited.

In terms of styrene market, it improved after rising in April. At the beginning of the month, driven by six consecutive increases in international oil prices, the cost of styrene was strongly supported. Combined with the decline in social inventory, the styrene market continues to rise. During the month, the supply and demand of styrene increased, but at the end of the month, there was pressure on the supply side due to port arrivals, while crude oil fell, leading to a reversal in the market. The future prices may be mainly organized and operated.

In terms of demand: In April, the main terminal demand for ABS remained stable with a slight decrease, and the overall factory load remained generally stable. The stocking operation was mainly focused on buying in demand. The supply of low-end goods in the market decreased within the month, and traders actively raised prices. Due to the high price of ABS, the pre holiday stocking situation is not significant. On exchange trading is average, and the demand side provides average market support.

Future Market Forecast

The domestic ABS prices have risen at a high level this month. From a fundamental perspective, all three upstream materials of ABS have seen price increases, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant is expected to remain at a low level, and supply tends to be tight. At the end of the month, the demand side has just entered the market, and the support for spot goods has slowed down. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will continue to remain strong at high levels in the short term.

After a long 2-3 year decline, the domestic adipic acid market stopped falling and rebounded in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the monthly increase in adipic acid was 1.48%, indicating a significant shift in the market’s trading focus. At present, the market quotation range for adipic acid is between 9500-9700 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100-200 yuan from the beginning of the previous month. The main reason is the positive cost boost and the relief of supply pressure.

Industrial chain

The above chart shows that the adipic acid industry chain has significantly improved this month, with a focus on growth. Upstream pure benzene and cyclohexane have seen significant increases, while cyclohexanone has remained relatively stable. Adipic acid is often driven up by costs. Downstream demand is sluggish, and product trends have not changed significantly. PA66 operates in a stalemate. Maintain in a relatively weak range.

Cost side: Both pure benzene and cyclohexane have increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has increased this month, with a growth rate of 2.16%. Since the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene has been rising, and after mid month, the price has remained stable. However, towards the end of the month, the price has fallen slightly. As the end of the month approaches, the price of pure benzene in East China ranges from 8600 to 8700 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexanone has slightly declined, with a decrease of only 0.06% this month. Overall, the cost side is mostly favorable.

Supply side: Temporary maintenance of equipment, supply pressure relief

From the perspective of market supply: In terms of equipment, the overall operating rate of adipic acid slightly decreased in the first half of this month, especially with some equipment undergoing temporary inspections and scar cleaning, resulting in production damage and a slight decrease in supply. The supply pressure was alleviated, helping adipic acid rebound from the market trend. But as the production of the equipment gradually resumed and the supply increased, the trend of adipic acid did not continue to rise in the latter half of the year.

Demand side: Downstream demand is the biggest constraint on adipic acid

Adipic acid downstream still shows lukewarm and lukewarm behavior. The caprolactam and TPU industries are still performing poorly. Downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and there has been no improvement in orders to ensure normal start-up demand. Taking PA66 as an example, according to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of PA66 this month was 0, and the market was hovering at the bottom. At the end of the month, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang Province was around 22500-23000 yuan/ton. At present, weak demand is the fundamental reason why adipic acid has not been able to continue its upward trend.

Future prospects

Business Society Adipic Acid Analysts believe that on the cost side, there is still geopolitical support for crude oil in the near future, as well as the strengthening of the US dollar due to the decreasing probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. Pure benzene has fallen slightly at the end of the month, and it is not ruled out that prices may continue to decline. The cost side may experience a shift from positive to negative in the later period. The supply and demand sides tend to balance in the short term, and a large number of repaired devices will suppress the weak demand. Overall, it is expected that adipic acid will continue to consolidate the market in May, with weak and stagnant fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of trichloroethylene in barrels decreased in April, while the factory price of loose water increased. On April 30th, the average market price of trichloroethylene in barrels in China was 6500 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the average market price of trichloroethylene in barrels was 6600 yuan/ton. The market price of trichloroethylene in barrels decreased by 1.52% within the month, and the mainstream ex factory price of trichloroethylene bulk water was quoted at 4800-5000 yuan/ton, increasing by 150 to 200 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis and Review

In early April, the demand trend in the trichloroethylene market warmed up, and the increase in the factory price of loose water drove the barrel packaging market to narrow rebound, shifting the overall focus of the market upwards. In the middle of the year, the market for trichloroethylene has stabilized, with stable production and a stable trading atmosphere in the market. Downstream demand based procurement is the main focus, and the trichloroethylene market is maintaining stable operation. Manufacturers have a strong mentality of price support. At the end of the month, some dealers sorted out their inventory before the holiday, and the market price of trichloroethylene in barrels was slightly reduced.

The following is the price situation of mainstream manufacturers of trichloroethylene dispersion water in April:

The factory quotation for loose water in Shandong region is 4800-5000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month;

The factory quotation for loose water in the southwest region is around 4800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month;

The factory quotation for loose water in Inner Mongolia is 4800-5000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.

Cost side:

The market for raw material calcium carbide has stabilized after a decline. After entering April, the domestic calcium carbide market has experienced a continuous decline and has recently stabilized and consolidated. The focus of the ethylene market has slightly shifted downwards. The current average price of ethylene CFR in Northeast Asia is 905 US dollars per ton, while the average price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia is 1010 US dollars per ton, and the market remains strong. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The main focus is on pre holiday factory inventory, and the trading atmosphere is average. The liquid chlorine market has a volatile trend, fluctuating up and down. The current factory price in Shandong region is 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

Supply side:

In April, the domestic trichloroethylene plant started normal operation and the supply was stable. Trichloroethylene is a net export product. According to customs data, the export volume of trichloroethylene from China in March 2024 was 2115 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 3% and a month on month increase of 69%. The total export volume from January to March 2024 was 6102.96 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 1%.

Demand side:

The market focus of refrigerant R134a remains high. On April 30th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 31000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from the beginning of the month’s price of 30666.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 22.37% compared to the same period last year. The market supply is stable, and R134a is mainly used as a refrigerant for automotive air conditioning systems. In the first quarter of 2024, China’s automobile production and sales reached 6.606 million and 6.72 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 10.6%, respectively. The industry prosperity index has rebounded, and downstream demand remains unchanged. However, the price competition in the automotive industry is exceptionally fierce, with a profit margin of only 4.3%. At present, the refrigerant R134a market will continue to operate steadily.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The trichloroethylene analyst from Shengyishe believes that the downward shift of the cost center is limited, and the demand side is strong at a high level. It is expected that the trichloroethylene market will operate steadily in the later stage.