The market for nitrile rubber slightly increased in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 31st, the price was 15450 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.48% from 15225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In March, the prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials for nitrile rubber slightly increased, and the cost center of nitrile rubber slightly increased; The low demand for downstream rubber hoses, insulation foam and other industries in the nitrile rubber industry is a strong support for the demand for nitrile. Stable operation of nitrile rubber equipment; The market situation of nitrile rubber has slightly increased. As of March 31st, the mainstream market price of Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China is 14500-14600 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Nandi Nitrile 1052 is 17300~17500 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported 15500~15600 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Cebu nitrile 3365 is 14300-14400 yuan/ton.

In March, the domestic nitrile rubber plant started construction with overall stability.

In March, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile slightly increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber continued to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 31st, the price of butadiene was 11525 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.88% from 11095 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 31st, the price of acrylonitrile was 9937 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.47% from 9512 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In March, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China remained at a low level of around 60-6.2%, and the production of rubber insulation foam was around 60-6.5%. The demand for nitrile rubber has strong support.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analyst believes that the downstream production of nitrile rubber is stable, but the high operating costs of butadiene and acrylonitrile support the strong cost of nitrile rubber. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market may continue to rise slightly in the later stage.

The acrylic acid market rose in March. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of March 27th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6425.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.63% compared to March 1st (the reference price of acrylic acid was 6200 yuan/ton).

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that the price of acrylic acid in the early stage of the month fell, mainly due to the dragging of the market by the demand side, slow follow-up of terminal demand, limited downstream new order transactions, poor receiving sentiment, and poor shipment of acrylic acid enterprises, with some discounts to promote transactions. With the rise in raw material propylene prices and increased cost pressure, some equipment on the supply side has been shut down for maintenance, leading to a decrease in industry capacity utilization. The quotes from major manufacturers have been raised, supporting the market’s price push mentality. Low priced goods on the market have decreased, and downstream inquiries are still promising. Buying continues with a strong demand for follow-up, and actual market transactions are average. As the end of the month approaches, some devices undergo maintenance and there is a shortage of spot supply, resulting in a favorable market trend on the supply side.

Cost side: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of propylene on March 26th was 6690.60, a decrease of 2.62% compared to March 1st (6870.75). The raw material propylene operated in a narrow range in March, and the cost side pressure of the acrylic acid market still exists.

According to the acrylic acid analyst from Business Society, the current cost impact is limited, and supply side support is temporarily in place. Downstream demand for high priced raw materials follows suit, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude towards them. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain strong in the short term, and more attention should be paid to changes in supply side operations.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 25, 2024, the factory price reference for domestically produced industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 3900 yuan/ton. Compared with March 20 (reference price for dimethyl carbonate is 3866 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 34 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.86%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that at the end of March (3.20-3.25), the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a slight upward trend. Currently, the overall downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate has been boosted, and the overall demand side has provided some market support for the dimethyl carbonate market. The pressure on on-site supply of dimethyl carbonate has been reduced, and the overall inventory supply is controllable. The mentality of the industry is mild. As of March 25th, the domestic market price of dimethyl carbonate is based on around 3750-4000 yuan/ton.

Future analysis

At present, the demand for electrolytes and solvents downstream of dimethyl carbonate is performing well, and the overall shipment of dimethyl carbonate is good. The accumulation situation in the early stage has been alleviated, and the overall operating rate of downstream has also increased. According to the dimethyl carbonate data analyst from Business Society, in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly operate steadily with a strong trend, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this week was 3316 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this week was 3266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31%.

The price of potassium sulfate in the domestic market has declined due to the decline in the price of raw material potassium chloride, resulting in a weak price of potassium sulfate. At present, the ex factory price of 52% Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly between 2900-3300 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price in some areas is lower than the low-end price, mainly exported to other markets. Currently, the operating rate of Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers remains at a high level.

The domestic supply of potassium fertilizer continues to increase, with new sources of goods arriving at ports in both the north and south. Some ports have fast shipping speeds, but the total port stock is still at a high level. Downstream compound fertilizer factories have maintained a relatively high operating rate recently, but mainly rely on early order delivery, with limited new orders.

Prediction: The domestic potassium fertilizer market lacks positive support, and it is expected that the domestic potassium fertilizer market prices will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has seen a slight upward trend in recent days (3.11-3.18). On March 18th, the benchmark price of toluene was 7290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% from the 7270 yuan/ton on March 11th.

International crude oil prices fluctuate narrowly, with toluene receiving some support

Recently (3.11-3.18), international crude oil has once again strengthened under the resonance of multiple factors, which still provides some support for the cost of toluene. As of March 15th, WTI05 contract settlement is 80.58 USD/barrel; Brent 05 contract settlement is $85.34 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has once again risen, providing some support for the domestic market. As of March 15th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 903-905 US dollars per ton.

Starting production of xylene temporarily stabilizes toluene and obtains necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is stable, and the domestic PX operating rate is maintained at over 80%. The operation of the Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, but there are still some units undergoing maintenance, and there is sufficient spot supply. This week, the international crude oil price trend has increased, and the PX external price has risen. As of the 14th, the closing price in the Asian region is 1016-1018 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1041-1043 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

After the holiday, the domestic mixed blending market has recovered slowly, and the demand for toluene mixed blending has weakened. As of mid March, the national refinery operation has been around 7.3.

Toluene port inventory continues to remain at high levels, and supply pressure still exists

Domestic toluene port inventories have slightly decreased but continued to remain at high levels. As of March 8th, toluene inventories in East China were 89000 tons, while those in South China were 15000 tons, slightly lower than the previous period. However, pressure on toluene supply remains. Domestic toluene production has slightly increased, with a rate of around 7.60% as of March 14th.

Market forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices are fluctuating at high levels, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Secondly, the recovery of demand in some downstream industries is slow, and the support for rigid demand is weak; Finally, the inventory of toluene at the port is high, and the pressure on the supply side of toluene remains. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market will mainly experience fluctuations in the later period.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of March 18, 2024, the reference market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was 7866 yuan/ton. Compared with March 11 (reference price of propylene glycol was 7950 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.05%.

From the monitoring data of Business Society, it can be seen that in recent times, the overall domestic propylene glycol market has shown a weak and declining trend. The trading atmosphere in the domestic propylene glycol market is light, with cautious new orders. The overall downstream demand for propylene glycol is weak, and it is difficult for the demand side to provide effective support to the propylene glycol market. The overall performance of the propylene glycol market is under narrow pressure and downward, and the focus of market negotiations is moving downwards. As of March 18th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.05% within seven days.

Future analysis

At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the propylene glycol market, and the downstream buying atmosphere is quiet and cautious. Some businesses have certain concerns about the future market. The propylene glycol data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of March 15th, the spot nickel quotation was 141028.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 23.38%. Recently, nickel prices have continued to rise due to disruptions in Indonesian nickel mining approval and strong momentum in ternary material orders.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 4 and risen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight increase in nickel prices recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

As shown in the above figure, LME nickel inventory has slightly rebounded recently, with 74178 tons of LME nickel inventory as of the weekend, an increase of 4.26% compared to early February.

On a macro level, the latest data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the US PPI increased by 0.6% month on month in February, marking the largest increase since August 2023. This is mainly driven by the rise in fuel and food prices, further highlighting the continued existence of inflationary pressure. At the same time, lower than expected growth in retail sales data has raised concerns in the market about the sustainability of consumer spending. In this context, the US dollar index remains strong, and market risk appetite shows a certain degree of volatility.

On the supply side, the Surrey Highlands in the Philippines have entered the rainy season, causing the quantity of nickel ore exported to China to remain low. The approval speed of the Work Plan and Budget Report (RKAB) for mineral and coal mining business activities in Indonesia has accelerated.

In terms of demand, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China from January to February were 1.252 million and 1.207 million respectively, an increase of 28.2% and 29.4% year-on-year, with a market share of 30%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 182000, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year. The operating rate of China’s stainless steel production capacity in March was 73.11%, which is at a low level in the same period. However, the production volume of 300 series stainless steel in March was 1.7205 million tons, which is at a high level in the same period. At present, the downstream demand for stainless steel in China is still difficult to be optimistic. The weekly social inventory of 300 series stainless steel has increased to 530000 tons and is at a relatively high historical level, which has led stainless steel traders to proactively reduce prices and ship. But with the continuous introduction of stable real estate policies, it is expected that the newly started and completed areas of the Chinese real estate industry will gradually recover, thereby supporting the demand for stainless steel decorative panels such as elevators and household appliances.

In summary, as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and slows down balance sheet contraction, Indonesia’s approval of nickel mining continues to affect supply, domestic nickel sulfate production losses, and downstream replenishment demand increase, nickel supply expectations are tight, and there is still room for short-term nickel prices to rise. However, domestic electrolytic nickel social inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level, stainless steel social inventory is high, and production is beginning to turn losses, which may suppress demand for nickel iron. It is expected that the short-term rise in nickel prices may slow down.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 14th, the average quoted price of polyethylene glycol 400 by enterprises was 7550.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last Friday (March 8th).

In recent times, the polyethylene glycol market has been mainly stable, with stable cost support. Downstream water reducing agents and printing and dyeing industries are mainly buying on demand. The daily chemical industry has stable demand, and the overall transaction performance of the market is average. As of March 14th, the reference price for some imported PEG400 in the East China market is 7700-7900 yuan/ton, while the reference price for some imported PEG400 in the South China market is 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

Upstream ethylene oxide: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on March 13th, the reference price of ethylene oxide was 6800.00, which was unchanged from March 1st. Recently, upstream ethylene oxide has been operating at a high level, providing strong support for the polyethylene glycol market. The expectation of subsequent equipment maintenance, regional supply or reduction, may continue to support the polyethylene glycol market.

Upstream ethylene glycol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of ethylene glycol on March 13th was 4605.00, which is the same as March 1st, and it still provides sufficient support for the polyethylene glycol market.

The polyethylene glycol analyst from Shengyishe believes that the short-term cost side may dominate the market, and market transactions are mainly based on demand. It is expected that the polyethylene glycol market will operate steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream trend of ethylene oxide.

This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained weak and stable. As of March 8th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 14940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the previous week. Last week, the industrial silicon market was mainly weak and stable, mainly due to differences in price expectations between the supply and demand sides. Some silicon companies intend to lower prices to ship, while downstream companies have purchasing intentions, but the pressure on prices is even greater, intensifying the game between the two sides. This also led to an increase in market transactions, but to a lesser extent than expected. The performance of spot transactions was average, so downstream buyers held a bearish sentiment and purchased on demand. Therefore, last week’s weak and stable operation of industrial silicon was the main focus

On the 23rd, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14700~14900 yuan/ton, with an average of 14800 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 14700-14900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14800 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14600~14800 yuan/ton, with an average of 14700 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15300~15600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15450 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of March 7th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 323, with an overall furnace opening rate of 43.07%, an increase of 3 compared to last week. Among them, Xinjiang has increased 7 furnaces, Yunnan has decreased 4 furnaces, Sichuan has decreased 1 furnace, Gansu has increased 2 furnaces, and Guizhou has decreased 1 furnace. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces increased slightly, with some manufacturers in the northwest adding new furnaces. However, the number of new furnaces added at low prices was lower than expected, and some manufacturers in the southwest underwent early maintenance; Xinjiang’s production capacity continues to resume, and the number of furnaces started in Xinjiang is close to the high point before the environmental protection power restriction and shutdown, indicating a trend towards abundant supply. The cost in the southwestern production area is inverted, and the willingness to start construction is relatively low.

In terms of inventory:

As of March 8th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 359000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 103000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to last week’s month on month, while the social delivery warehouse was 256000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), which remained unchanged compared to last week’s month on month.

In terms of demand:

Last week, the price of polycrystalline silicon remained stable, and the ramp up of new production capacity drove an increase in industrial silicon consumption, but the release of procurement demand was limited. Currently, terminal procurement is generally cautious, and silicon wafer companies have accumulated inventory and are concerned about future demand, resulting in price competition. At present, some newly added polysilicon production capacity is still climbing, which continues to increase the consumption of industrial silicon. However, in recent times, the release of polysilicon’s demand for industrial silicon procurement has been slow, and the support for industrial silicon prices is relatively limited.

Last week, the price of organic silicon stabilized and the price of aluminum alloy slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 16220 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC stabilized after a large increase in the early stage, and the downstream has a good acceptance of the current price. After concentrated trading in the market, it tended to stabilize. The current organic silicon industry has seen a slight increase in production, and there is also an increase in demand for industrial silicon. However, regardless of the company’s maintenance plans, the support of organic silicon for industrial silicon is still unstable in the near future. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. The production of aluminum alloy enterprises has further increased, and the improvement of downstream orders has driven the procurement of industrial silicon for aluminum alloys. However, overall, the demand increment is limited.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, silicon plants resumed production in March, and the overall operating rate continued to gradually increase. However, in some areas, the operating rate did not meet expectations, but the overall supply situation increased; On the demand side, with the resumption of industry production, downstream silicon factory replenishment procurement will also gradually increase. The demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is in a stable growth trend, and there may be a release of concentrated replenishment demand in the later stage, with a pre increase in demand release. Social inventory is stabilizing, and there is not much pressure on total inventory. At present, the supply and demand side may turn into a situation of double increase in supply and demand, with the fundamentals favorable for the upward trend of silicon prices. However, downstream procurement is more strong, and the futures market has weakened recently. There is a possibility of weakening cost support, and the space for silicon price increase is limited. It is expected that industrial silicon will slightly decline this week and operate weakly and steadily.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the acrylonitrile market has seen a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 11th, the bulk water price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9637 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% from 9512 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9500 to 9800 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, and the cost supports acrylonitrile; Downstream ABS production has slightly increased at a low level, providing some support for acrylonitrile; The supply side of the acrylonitrile unit is generally loose, and some units have maintenance plans in the future.

Recently (3.1-3.11), there has been a slight fluctuation in the operation of domestic acrylonitrile units.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the propylene market for raw materials has slightly increased, supported by the cost of acrylonitrile. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 11th, the domestic propylene price was 7020 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.18% from 6870 yuan/ton on the first day.

It is understood that since March, downstream ABS production has slightly increased to around 6.80%, but overall it is still at a low level, providing weak support for demand for acrylonitrile; The production of acrylic yarn has increased to nearly 50%, and the production of acrylic fiber has remained stable at around 70%. The demand for acrylic nitrile is mainly in demand; Stable operation of nitrile rubber and stable support for acrylonitrile; The production of polyacrylamide gradually increased to around 4.6% after the holiday; Overall, there has been slight support from downstream for acrylonitrile since March.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the supply of acrylonitrile is loose, but some devices have maintenance plans in the later stage; The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased; In the short term, the demand side will provide some support for acrylonitrile, and overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate and rise in the future.