According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, with an average market price of 3350 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, a decrease of 4.29% compared to the same period last year. On May 10th, the chlor alkali index was 1004 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 52.82% from the highest point in the cycle of 2128 points (2021-10-24), and an increase of 41.01% from the lowest point of 712 points on January 5th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Upstream caustic soda

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.63% compared to the same period last year. The prices of caustic soda in Shandong region have been consolidating, with a mainstream market quotation of around 690-810 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market quotation of around 810-880 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. In the near future, downstream purchases will be made on demand, and it is expected that the operation will be mainly volatile in the later stage.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has stabilized this week, and downstream demand is average. Traders are actively shipping, but downstream alumina is mostly purchased on demand. Based on the overall supply-demand game, the price of caustic soda may remain volatile in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

The price of boric acid has been weak and stable recently. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 10th, the average price of boric acid in the domestic market is 7275 yuan/ton. At present, domestic boric acid traders offer prices ranging from 6700 to 7800 yuan/ton (actual transaction prices for different brands, specifications, and products are mainly negotiated), with mainstream prices ranging from 6900 to 6950 yuan/ton based on sales volume.

In terms of overseas imported goods, the current foreign quotation for imported goods is concentrated at 7500-7800 yuan/ton (the actual transaction price of different brands, specifications, and products is mainly negotiated). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 10th, the average market price of imported boric acid was 7656.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08% compared to the average market price of 7662.5 yuan/ton in early April.

The price of boric acid began to decline from its high point in June 2022, and began to bottom out and fluctuate horizontally in May 2023. Currently, it is still operating in the range of bottom box fluctuations. If there is no positive news, it is expected to be difficult to change in the short term.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the CPP market prices have been weak and stable this week. As of May 9th, domestic producers and traders have reached 25% μ The mainstream quoted price for m’s CPP film is around 10133.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.16% from last week’s average price and about 0.16% from the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and fallen this week. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7821.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27% compared to last week (7842.86 yuan/ton), and a decrease of 0.27% compared to the beginning of this month (7842.86 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PP is weak and there is insufficient support on the cost side.

In terms of supply: the membrane enterprise has sufficient inventory and still has surplus. The pressure on the supply side is still in place.

In terms of demand: Enterprise replenishment operations are mainly based on demand, terminal inquiries are cautious, and there is no significant improvement in the trading atmosphere on the market.

Future Market Forecast

The market demand is weak, and the release of inventory is limited. Although prices have weakened, there is not much room for film companies to make concessions. It is expected that CPP film prices may experience weak fluctuations in the near future.

In April, the domestic ABS market rose at a high level, with most brands experiencing an increase in spot prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the average price of ABS sample products was 12475 yuan/ton, a+2.57% increase or decrease from the price level on April 1st.

Fundamental analysis

Supply level: The low load pattern of the domestic ABS industry has continued this month, and the operating rate at the end of the month has decreased from 62% at the beginning of the month to around 55%. In the first half of the month, enterprises underwent centralized maintenance, and in the second half, there was also varying degrees of load reduction. The synchronous reduction in production has led to a decrease in on-site supply, resulting in strong support for ABS spot goods from the supply side throughout the month.

Cost factor: The overall trend of ABS upstream three materials in April was positive, with acrylonitrile market maintaining a positive trend throughout the month. The equipment load of the enterprise decreased within the month, and the news of resuming work in the future is uncertain. The supply is declining, providing supplier support for acrylonitrile, and the main enterprises are actively raising prices; The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid ammonia have strengthened, providing strong support for acrylonitrile; Downstream, there is a surge in pre holiday stocking and consumption, with many bulls gathering in the market. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to operate strongly in the future.

This month, the domestic butadiene market has reached a high level of consolidation and operation. In the first half of the year, the external market rose, with a premium in bidding sources, providing support to the market. In late October, the terminal will replenish its position before the holiday and support spot prices. It is expected that the fluctuation of butadiene prices during the May Day period may be limited.

In terms of styrene market, it improved after rising in April. At the beginning of the month, driven by six consecutive increases in international oil prices, the cost of styrene was strongly supported. Combined with the decline in social inventory, the styrene market continues to rise. During the month, the supply and demand of styrene increased, but at the end of the month, there was pressure on the supply side due to port arrivals, while crude oil fell, leading to a reversal in the market. The future prices may be mainly organized and operated.

In terms of demand: In April, the main terminal demand for ABS remained stable with a slight decrease, and the overall factory load remained generally stable. The stocking operation was mainly focused on buying in demand. The supply of low-end goods in the market decreased within the month, and traders actively raised prices. Due to the high price of ABS, the pre holiday stocking situation is not significant. On exchange trading is average, and the demand side provides average market support.

Future Market Forecast

The domestic ABS prices have risen at a high level this month. From a fundamental perspective, all three upstream materials of ABS have seen price increases, providing strong support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of ABS polymerization plant is expected to remain at a low level, and supply tends to be tight. At the end of the month, the demand side has just entered the market, and the support for spot goods has slowed down. In summary, it is expected that the ABS market will continue to remain strong at high levels in the short term.

After a long 2-3 year decline, the domestic adipic acid market stopped falling and rebounded in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the monthly increase in adipic acid was 1.48%, indicating a significant shift in the market’s trading focus. At present, the market quotation range for adipic acid is between 9500-9700 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100-200 yuan from the beginning of the previous month. The main reason is the positive cost boost and the relief of supply pressure.

Industrial chain

The above chart shows that the adipic acid industry chain has significantly improved this month, with a focus on growth. Upstream pure benzene and cyclohexane have seen significant increases, while cyclohexanone has remained relatively stable. Adipic acid is often driven up by costs. Downstream demand is sluggish, and product trends have not changed significantly. PA66 operates in a stalemate. Maintain in a relatively weak range.

Cost side: Both pure benzene and cyclohexane have increased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has increased this month, with a growth rate of 2.16%. Since the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene has been rising, and after mid month, the price has remained stable. However, towards the end of the month, the price has fallen slightly. As the end of the month approaches, the price of pure benzene in East China ranges from 8600 to 8700 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexanone has slightly declined, with a decrease of only 0.06% this month. Overall, the cost side is mostly favorable.

Supply side: Temporary maintenance of equipment, supply pressure relief

From the perspective of market supply: In terms of equipment, the overall operating rate of adipic acid slightly decreased in the first half of this month, especially with some equipment undergoing temporary inspections and scar cleaning, resulting in production damage and a slight decrease in supply. The supply pressure was alleviated, helping adipic acid rebound from the market trend. But as the production of the equipment gradually resumed and the supply increased, the trend of adipic acid did not continue to rise in the latter half of the year.

Demand side: Downstream demand is the biggest constraint on adipic acid

Adipic acid downstream still shows lukewarm and lukewarm behavior. The caprolactam and TPU industries are still performing poorly. Downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and there has been no improvement in orders to ensure normal start-up demand. Taking PA66 as an example, according to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of PA66 this month was 0, and the market was hovering at the bottom. At the end of the month, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang Province was around 22500-23000 yuan/ton. At present, weak demand is the fundamental reason why adipic acid has not been able to continue its upward trend.

Future prospects

Business Society Adipic Acid Analysts believe that on the cost side, there is still geopolitical support for crude oil in the near future, as well as the strengthening of the US dollar due to the decreasing probability of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. Pure benzene has fallen slightly at the end of the month, and it is not ruled out that prices may continue to decline. The cost side may experience a shift from positive to negative in the later period. The supply and demand sides tend to balance in the short term, and a large number of repaired devices will suppress the weak demand. Overall, it is expected that adipic acid will continue to consolidate the market in May, with weak and stagnant fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of trichloroethylene in barrels decreased in April, while the factory price of loose water increased. On April 30th, the average market price of trichloroethylene in barrels in China was 6500 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the average market price of trichloroethylene in barrels was 6600 yuan/ton. The market price of trichloroethylene in barrels decreased by 1.52% within the month, and the mainstream ex factory price of trichloroethylene bulk water was quoted at 4800-5000 yuan/ton, increasing by 150 to 200 yuan/ton.

2、 Analysis and Review

In early April, the demand trend in the trichloroethylene market warmed up, and the increase in the factory price of loose water drove the barrel packaging market to narrow rebound, shifting the overall focus of the market upwards. In the middle of the year, the market for trichloroethylene has stabilized, with stable production and a stable trading atmosphere in the market. Downstream demand based procurement is the main focus, and the trichloroethylene market is maintaining stable operation. Manufacturers have a strong mentality of price support. At the end of the month, some dealers sorted out their inventory before the holiday, and the market price of trichloroethylene in barrels was slightly reduced.

The following is the price situation of mainstream manufacturers of trichloroethylene dispersion water in April:

The factory quotation for loose water in Shandong region is 4800-5000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month;

The factory quotation for loose water in the southwest region is around 4800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month;

The factory quotation for loose water in Inner Mongolia is 4800-5000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.

Cost side:

The market for raw material calcium carbide has stabilized after a decline. After entering April, the domestic calcium carbide market has experienced a continuous decline and has recently stabilized and consolidated. The focus of the ethylene market has slightly shifted downwards. The current average price of ethylene CFR in Northeast Asia is 905 US dollars per ton, while the average price of ethylene CFR in Southeast Asia is 1010 US dollars per ton, and the market remains strong. The domestic ethylene quotation in East China is 7450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The main focus is on pre holiday factory inventory, and the trading atmosphere is average. The liquid chlorine market has a volatile trend, fluctuating up and down. The current factory price in Shandong region is 350 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month.

Supply side:

In April, the domestic trichloroethylene plant started normal operation and the supply was stable. Trichloroethylene is a net export product. According to customs data, the export volume of trichloroethylene from China in March 2024 was 2115 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 3% and a month on month increase of 69%. The total export volume from January to March 2024 was 6102.96 tons, a year-on-year decrease of about 1%.

Demand side:

The market focus of refrigerant R134a remains high. On April 30th, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 31000.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from the beginning of the month’s price of 30666.67 yuan/ton, and an increase of 22.37% compared to the same period last year. The market supply is stable, and R134a is mainly used as a refrigerant for automotive air conditioning systems. In the first quarter of 2024, China’s automobile production and sales reached 6.606 million and 6.72 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6.4% and 10.6%, respectively. The industry prosperity index has rebounded, and downstream demand remains unchanged. However, the price competition in the automotive industry is exceptionally fierce, with a profit margin of only 4.3%. At present, the refrigerant R134a market will continue to operate steadily.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The trichloroethylene analyst from Shengyishe believes that the downward shift of the cost center is limited, and the demand side is strong at a high level. It is expected that the trichloroethylene market will operate steadily in the later stage.

Domestic cobalt prices fell in April

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt price on April 30th was 213100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87% compared to the cobalt price of 224000 yuan/ton on April 1st. The cobalt market performance in April was weak, with cobalt prices fluctuating and falling.

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, the cobalt market performance did not fall short of expectations. The cobalt price increase in March was not sustainable, and the cobalt price slightly declined in April.

The proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased

According to data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in March, the installed volume of ternary batteries was 11.3GWh, accounting for 32.4% of the total installed volume, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a month on month increase of 62.9%; From January to March, the cumulative installed capacity of ternary batteries was 30.9Wh, accounting for 36.2% of the total installed capacity, with a year-on-year increase of 47.8%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries increased on a month on month basis, but the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries decreased. The demand for cobalt in ternary batteries grew less than expected, which is bearish for the cobalt market.

International cobalt price decline

According to the cobalt price trend chart of the London futures trading market, it can be seen that cobalt prices in the LME market fell in mid April. The decline in international cobalt prices is bearish for the domestic cobalt market.

According to the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that there was insufficient support for the rise of MB cobalt prices in April, and cobalt prices fluctuated and fell in the middle and late stages. The decline in international cobalt prices is bearish for the domestic cobalt market.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials has increased significantly

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, the total import volume of cobalt raw materials in March was 48660 tons, equivalent to 14726 metal tons of cobalt. The import volume of cobalt raw materials in March increased by 8.39% month on month. The import volume of cobalt raw materials increased significantly from January to March, and coupled with stable sea transportation in South Africa, the cobalt market continued to experience oversupply.

Overview and Outlook

According to data analysts from Business Society, the proportion of installed capacity of ternary batteries has decreased, and the demand for cobalt in the market has not increased as expected. In addition, the import volume of cobalt raw materials has increased significantly, leading to a decrease in the supply and demand of cobalt in the market; In the international market, the fluctuation and decline of international cobalt prices have a negative impact on the domestic cobalt market. Expected cobalt prices to fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend slightly declined in April. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3870 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51% from the initial price of 3890 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.83%.

In April, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate slightly declined, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers was stable. Recently, there has been sufficient supply of goods on site, and downstream procurement has not been active. The market price of ammonium nitrate has mainly declined. Recently, downstream demand for nitro compound fertilizer has been average, and the purchasing atmosphere in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has cooled down. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the price of ammonium nitrate has been mainly fluctuating recently. As of the end of the month, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5300-5500 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3600-3800 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3700-3800 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China increased in April, with an average price of 1856.67 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 6.10% compared to the price of 1750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer a price range of 1800-1900 yuan/ton, while those in the North and Central China offer a price range of 1800-2000 yuan/ton. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is supported, and the cost trend has slightly increased. The market mainly relies on orders, and the market transaction situation has improved. Industry insiders are mostly wait-and-see, and the price of nitric acid has increased. As a result, the price of ammonium nitrate in the market has not changed much.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia slightly decreased in April, with a price of 2983.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 2.93% from the price of 3073.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In April, the maintenance equipment resumed work one after another, and the supply side showed loose performance. Coupled with the downstream urea being partially converted to liquid ammonia, the amount of ammonia released has increased. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, the peak season for agricultural demand procurement is approaching, industrial demand remains in high demand, and the sluggish demand side has suppressed the price of liquid ammonia. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2950-3100 yuan/ton, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has slightly decreased due to the impact of cost decline.

Recently, the procurement of downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizer has gradually opened up. The price trend of nitric acid has increased, and the liquid ammonia market has risen in late April. Supported by positive factors, ammonium nitrate analysts from Business Society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate remains mainly volatile.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on April 28th was 5666 yuan/ton, which is 0.89% higher than the average price of 5616 yuan/ton on April 1st.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the market price of chlorinated paraffin was initially suppressed and then increased. In early April, the prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine increased, providing strong cost support. Driven by cost assistance, chlorinated paraffin enterprises have raised their quotations. In mid April, the market price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable. The manufacturer is operating at low load, downstream procurement is required, and actual orders are discussed in detail, with limited market investment. As late April approaches the end of the month, the market for raw material liquid wax weakens, and the market price of chlorinated paraffin falls. As of April 28th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5500-5800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose first and then fell this month. At present, the market trend is weak, and liquid wax fluctuates with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine fluctuated this month. At present, the market trend is improving, and the shipment situation is still good. Negotiations on actual orders are the main focus.

According to the weekly ups and downs from January 29, 2024 to April 15, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic chlorinated paraffin cycle saw mixed ups and downs. There was a significant increase in April, with the highest increase of 0.59% in the weeks of April 1st and April 8th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Chlorinated Paraffin, the prices of raw material liquid wax have continued to decline recently, with average cost support. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffin is average, with limited market trading. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will be weak in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

Market analysis for this week

This week, the magnesium ingot market remained stable and stable, with a slight increase in magnesium ingot prices at the beginning of the week, an increase of about 200 yuan/ton. However, in the middle and later stages of the week, there was little overall change in the market, and the downstream high price delivery capacity was insufficient, resulting in a stalemate in the market transaction atmosphere. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 19th, the average price of magnesium ingots in the domestic market was 18733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% compared to the previous week.

In terms of supply and demand

The number of factories reducing production and shutting down has increased, leading to a decrease in inventory pressure and a firm quotation from manufacturers. But currently, the market is mainly focused on purchasing for essential needs. At the beginning of the week, some downstream users made moderate purchases due to the sentiment of “buying up but not buying down”. Downstream users followed up cautiously in the middle and later stages of the week, although there were a small number of transactions, the main focus was still on essential needs users.

In terms of raw materials

This week, the market quotation for ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 6300-6400 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week. There is not much inventory in the factory, and some production orders are mainly scheduled. Recently, bidding prices have been introduced to stop the decline and increase. With the increasing positive information, industry confidence has been significantly boosted, and there is a strong reluctance to sell, leading to an increase in market quotations.

This week, the national blue charcoal market operated steadily with a strong bias. Against the backdrop of high cost pressures and low market inventories, some blue charcoal enterprises increased prices by 20-80 yuan/ton. As of April 19th, the mainstream prices of small and medium-sized materials in the Shenmu market were 740-950 yuan/ton, and the coke surface was 580-650 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in the Fugu market is 720-900 yuan/ton, and the coke surface is 620-700 yuan/ton.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the magnesium ingot market is showing a stable and positive trend, with an increase in market inquiry enthusiasm. However, the actual downstream demand has not significantly improved. After the continuous increase in magnesium prices, downstream users have insufficient acceptance of high prices. However, the silicon iron market on the raw material side is gradually rising, and the cost support for magnesium ingots is strengthening, while manufacturers maintain a price mentality. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic magnesium ingot market will consolidate and operate in the short term.