The domestic acetonitrile market price fluctuated and declined this month. As of May 29th, the benchmark price of acetonitrile for Shengyishe was 9880.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.98% compared to the beginning of this month (10080.00 yuan/ton).

Market analysis:

This month, the overall supply of acetonitrile in the market has been stable and sufficient, with an increase in overall inventory and a bearish outlook on the supply side. However, downstream demand continues to be weak, and buyers have followed suit around rigid demand. Coupled with mainstream manufacturers lowering their bidding prices, the market mentality is not good, and the price center of the acetonitrile market continues to decline.

Supply side:

This month, the spot market price of acrylonitrile has experienced a narrow decline. As of May 29th, the benchmark price of acrylonitrile for Shengyishe was 9850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -8.80% compared to the beginning of this month (10800.00 yuan/ton). The news is currently unclear, and there is still uncertainty in supply changes. In the short term, manufacturer inventories are not high, and there is still an intention to raise prices. Considering that the settlement expectation for this month is still high, the spot market is also cautious and stable in operation. There are plans to restart or increase losses in both the north and south, and the overall news is bearish. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will remain weak and volatile in the near future.

On the demand side:

Pesticides are the main downstream industry of acetonitrile, with slight fluctuations in the pesticide raw material market. The inquiry volume has increased this month, and downstream stocking is mainly based on demand, but product trading performance is average. The supply and demand of the pesticide market are weakening, with cost support, and pesticide prices may still fluctuate at the bottom in the second half of the year.

Overall:

The domestic market price of acetonitrile is expected to continue to decline in the near future. On the one hand, with the restart of by-product and synthesis equipment, the market supply will further increase; On the other hand, the overall downstream demand remains weak, especially with no favorable factors in the pesticide market. In this context, acetonitrile manufacturers are facing increasing sales pressure and have to promote sales by lowering prices. It is predicted that the market price of acetonitrile may fall below 9800 yuan/ton next week and may continue to decline to a lower level.

Recently, the price of isooctyl acrylate in China has been steadily increasing. As of May 28th, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 12800.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (12625.00 yuan/ton). Currently, there is no pressure on supply, and there may still be room for price increases supported by costs. It is expected that the focus of the domestic market for isooctyl acrylate will be on the rise in the near future.

In terms of cost:

Recently, the market price of isooctanol has slightly increased. As of May 28th, the benchmark price of isooctanol in Shengyishe was 9880.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.28% compared to the beginning of this month (9660.00 yuan/ton). Due to maintenance plans for some plasticizer devices in May, downstream plasticizer users are purchasing in moderation. The mainstream factories of isooctanol are arranging inventory shipments, and it is expected that the isooctanol market will consolidate and operate in June.

Recently, the price of acrylic acid in the market has remained stable. As of May 28th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6925.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). The cost support has been strengthened, the market supply has decreased, and the sentiment of price support has increased. Factories and holders have pushed up their prices, and downstream users have increased their enthusiasm for inquiries. As a result, they need to purchase and replenish goods in a timely manner.

In terms of supply and demand:

At present, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic isooctyl acrylate enterprises remains low, the on-site spot supply has decreased, and the pressure on enterprise shipments is relatively small; From a demand perspective, there has been an increase in downstream terminal demand, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

Overall

At present, the rise in cost is the main factor supporting the domestic market price of isooctyl acrylate. The current increase in raw material prices and demand has provided favorable support for the domestic isooctyl acrylate market. Analysts from Business Society predict that with the high price of isooctyl acrylate, downstream consumers may have a resistance mentality, and the subsequent rise of isooctyl acrylate may be difficult to maintain.

According to the market analysis system of Business Society, the market for n-butanal rose in May. As of May 27th, the price of n-butanal was 7986 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93% compared to the beginning of the month at 7912 yuan/ton.

Upstream end: Propylene upstream of butyraldehyde fluctuated within the month, with the market opening high and closing low. At the beginning of the month, continuing the upward trend of the previous month, the price of propylene slightly increased, and the price of n-butanal also rose accordingly. Subsequently, due to the relatively high price of propylene, downstream market entry enthusiasm decreased, and enterprises had difficulty selling goods, leading to a decrease in propylene prices. On the 22nd and 23rd, the downstream receiving capacity further weakened, and the price of propylene fell significantly, with a two-day drop of 200 yuan/ton.

Downstream end:

In early May, the overall supply inventory of downstream n-butanol factories was low, and the pressure on the supply side of n-butanol factories was relatively small. The supply side supported the gradual increase of n-butanol market prices. In the latter half of the year, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market in Shandong region has weakened, and the downstream demand for n-butanol is average, resulting in an overall lack of selling compared to the previous period. The pace of shipments from the main factories of n-butanol has slowed down, and the overall market price has slightly adjusted downwards, with an adjustment of around 100 yuan/ton. Overall, the n-butanol market showed an upward trend within the month, rising by 3.29%.

At the beginning of the month, the price of downstream trimethylolpropane of n-butanal experienced a wave of increase. However, after a period of market adjustment, the price has gradually stabilized, and the demand for trimethylolpropane in downstream industries continues to remain strong. Some trimethylolpropane manufacturers are still scheduling shipments, and it is expected that the market for trimethylolpropane will remain stable and strong in the short term.

Business Society’s butyraldehyde data analyst believes that the growth in downstream demand provides positive support for butyraldehyde, and it is expected that butyraldehyde will fluctuate upwards in the short term. Specific attention still needs to be paid to the upstream and downstream situation.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market stabilized this week (2.20-24), with no increase or decrease. The average market price remained stable at 107.5 yuan/ton, and prices fell by 51% year-on-year over the weekend.

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, there has been no significant change in the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices this week, and supply and demand have maintained a reasonable balance. Firstly, the manufacturers are operating normally, and after reducing prices and clearing inventory in the early stage, the phenomenon of some enterprises accumulating inventory has been alleviated. The manufacturer maintains stable equipment and is more proactive in shipping goods.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has been operating steadily recently, and cost support has further weakened. The downstream market for polyaluminum chloride has been declining steadily. This week, prices will mainly stabilize. The fluctuation range is 0, during the weekend, the market price is 1781 yuan/ton. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society hydrochloric acid analysts believe that towards the end of the month, the market price of hydrochloric acid has stopped falling and stabilized. Overall, prices may maintain a range adjustment in the later stage, mainly due to insufficient cost support and weak supply-demand balance. It is expected that there will still be little room for price fluctuations in early June.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has recently seen a narrow consolidation from May 13th to May 22nd. On May 22nd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% from 7480 yuan/ton on May 13th.

International crude oil weak shock, toluene cost weak support

Recently (5.13-5.22), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of May 22nd, WTI07 contract settlement is 77.57 US dollars per barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $81.90 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has slightly rebounded, providing some support for the domestic market. As of May 13th and June, the CFR China toluene price was between 922-924 US dollars per ton.

Starting production of xylene and increasing toluene demand with weak support

Due to maintenance of some devices, the domestic PX production has slightly decreased, and as of May 21st, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 75%. It is understood that Weilian Chemical has recently shut down 2 million tons of PX for maintenance, with a planned maintenance period of around 40 days. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the domestic PX market. As of May 21, the closing price in the Asian region is 1002-1004 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1027-1029 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of May 16th, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 690%.

The continued decline in port inventory has eased the pressure on the toluene market to some extent

The domestic toluene port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but still remains at a high level. As of May 16th, the toluene inventory in East China was 53000 tons, and the toluene inventory in South China was 8500 tons.

There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease

The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity. It is planned to restart in late May; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, the international crude oil market is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, and there is a downward risk in the cost of toluene; Secondly, the downstream demand for oil adjustment was lower than expected, and the demand for disproportionation reaction also slightly decreased; The maintenance plan for the toluene unit in the later stage will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply surface. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market may experience a weak trend in the later stage and slightly rise after consolidation.

Recently (5.13-5.21), the nitrile rubber market has been weak and consolidating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the price of nitrile rubber was 15137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25% from 15175 yuan/ton on May 13th. The high prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have fallen, while the cost support for nitrile rubber has slightly weakened; Downstream construction continues at a low level, with weak demand for nitrile rubber. General inventory of nitrile rubber enterprises; The production of nitrile rubber is at a low level, and the pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber is not high. As of May 21st, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 13700-13800 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Russian nitrile 3665 is around 13500-13600 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 16700-16800 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Shunze Nitrile 3355 is 14700-14800 yuan/ton.

Recently (5.13-5.21), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile have fallen from high levels, and the cost support for nitrile rubber has slightly weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 21st, the price of butadiene was 11087 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.90% from 11537 yuan/ton on May 13th; As of May 21st, the price of acrylonitrile was 10250 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 3.87% compared to the price of 10662 yuan/ton on May 13th.

Recently (5.13-5.21), the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants has slightly increased, but there are still plans for plant maintenance in the later stage. The 65000 ton/year nitrile plant in Shunze will restart operation from May 20th; The 35000 ton/year nitrile rubber plant in Lanhua will be shut down from May 11th, and the 15000 ton/year nitrile rubber plant is planned to be shut down on May 25th.

Recently, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has remained at around 5.5%, while the production of insulation foam has remained at a low level of around 5.5%. Downstream inquiries about nitrile rubber are limited, and the overall demand for nitrile rubber is weak.

Market forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, the prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials for nitrile rubber are still at a high cost support level; Downstream construction remains at a low level, which has a negative impact on nitrile rubber; The production of nitrile rubber is at a low level, and there is not much pressure on the supply side, which provides some support for the market. Overall, it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell this week, with a decrease of 4.44%. The average market price dropped from 112.5 yuan/ton last weekend to 107.5 yuan/ton this Friday, and the weekend price fell by 51% year-on-year.

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have fallen this week, with manufacturers operating normally and some companies accumulating inventory, resulting in excessive inventory. The manufacturer maintains stable equipment and is more proactive in shipping goods.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has been operating steadily recently, and cost support has further weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has been experiencing a continuous decline in recent times. This week, the price slightly decreased by 0.35%, during the weekend, and the market price was 1780 yuan/ton. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

Future Market Forecast

In late May, the market price of hydrochloric acid may remain stable with some decline. The upstream liquid chlorine market lacks support, and there is still room for further decline in the downstream polyaluminum chloride market. Downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent weak and volatile hydrochloric acid market is the main trend.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 19th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 105800.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.31% compared to last Monday’s price.

Recently, the domestic lithium hydroxide market has declined. Recently, the price of spodumene concentrate has been narrow and weak, with upstream lithium carbonate prices falling and cost support showing weakness. The supply side is mainly stable, while downstream high nickel ternary demand has limited follow-up. The demand side has decreased compared to the previous period, and the market inquiry atmosphere is still acceptable. However, there is a clear wait-and-see attitude towards high priced raw materials, and caution is needed to enter the market. The actual transaction volume in the market is still weak, and the focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is falling.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on May 17th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 106800.00, a decrease of 1.48% compared to May 1st (108400.00). Through observing market changes, the spot market for lithium carbonate has shown a weak decline recently, which lacks support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, short-term demand may still be insufficient in the face of market support, with most businesses adopting a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide market may continue to operate weakly and steadily in the short term, while still needing to pay attention to changes in upstream lithium carbonate prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 17th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8483 yuan/ton, and on May 11th, the average price of white oil in the market was 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2%.

In terms of cost

This week’s break in crude oil prices has a guiding effect on the market, with a slight decline in the white oil market.

In terms of supply and demand

On the supply side, some upstream refineries underwent maintenance in May, resulting in a slight reduction in supply. Light white oil manufacturers have made adjustments to individual models this week. On the demand side, consumption entered the traditional off-season in May, and the transaction atmosphere was light. Downstream low-priced essential purchases were the main focus.

Future Market Forecast

At present, although the trading atmosphere in the market is average, the production costs of refineries are still high. The cost support is strong, and it is expected that the price trend of white oil market will be stable, moderate, and weak, with narrow price fluctuations.

This week, the domestic glycerol market prices remained weak and stable. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of May 16th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Business Society was 4275.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.16% compared to the beginning of this month (4325.00 yuan/ton).

Influencing factors: The price of palm oil in the market has risen. According to data from Business Society, as of May 16th, the benchmark price of palm oil in Business Society was 8020.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.75% compared to the beginning of this month (7960.00 yuan/ton). On the external side, the price of glycerol is stable, with a small quantity and not many offers. The domestic downstream market demand for epichlorohydrin is weak, and the purchasing atmosphere is not strong. At present, the market trading volume is insufficient and orders are limited, with a focus on wait-and-see.

Post forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst from Business Society, the market price of raw palm oil has risen, downstream demand is cold, and procurement is not active. In the near future, domestic glycerol has been operating weakly and steadily. For more information, please pay attention to the dynamics of external quotation and market guidance.