1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 13th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% from the reference average price of 2309 yuan/ton on August 6th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market price first suppressed and then rose. As of August 13th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2090-2120 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2100 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 2130 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong region it is around 2280 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market supply decreased this week compared to last week, and the supply and demand are currently relatively balanced. In terms of demand, agriculture and industry still maintain a focus on essential procurement. The operating rate and market of downstream compound fertilizers are stable, and the purchase of urea is relatively cautious.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market has seen a slight increase in recent days, indicating a relatively optimistic outlook. With a steady increase in demand, it is expected that the short-term domestic urea market will mainly experience fluctuating price increases.

This week (8.3-8.9), the domestic acrylonitrile market continued to decline. The upstream raw material propylene market has fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient cost support. Although several acrylonitrile factories have shut down or reduced production this week, the substantial impact on the site is limited, and the supply is still relatively abundant. The industry lacks confidence in the future, and transactions are mostly biased towards the low-end. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for self pickup in East China ports is 8200 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8250 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the operating capacity of domestic acrylonitrile plants has decreased to around 77%.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic propylene market has slightly declined this week, with mainstream closing at 6850-6900 yuan/ton, and transactions in the East China region at 7150-7200 yuan/ton. The international crude oil and polypropylene futures market continued to decline during the week, coupled with expectations of increasing market supply and significant impact from low-priced sources. The lack of support from favorable fundamentals has increased the caution of industry operators. At the same time, the overall shipment of enterprises has not shown significant improvement, making it difficult to form support for price trends. It is expected that propylene prices will mainly consolidate weakly.

Weak demand: This week, some ABS units in China have slightly increased their operating load, while downstream units have been affected by high temperatures and rainy weather, resulting in some shutdowns and holidays. As of the weekend, the average operating rate of the equipment was 65.37%, an increase of 0.30% month on month and a decrease of 18.34% year-on-year.

Overall, the domestic propylene market may experience a high-level decline next week, with insufficient cost support. Although acrylonitrile factories have taken measures such as maintenance or production reduction to alleviate shipment pressure, downstream inquiries tend to be low-end, and the news of production reduction has not boosted the acrylonitrile market. The focus of transactions is expected to continue to weaken, and it is expected that the mainstream negotiation price for self pickup in East China ports will be around 8000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of polyester filament showed a trend of first rising and then falling in July. Currently, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at a price of 7700-8000 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at a price of 9200-9500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at a price of 8200-8400 yuan/ton.

On July 30th, the Brent crude oil benchmark price was $79.05 per barrel. Compared to $85.26 per barrel at the beginning of this month, it has decreased by -7.28%. The WTI crude oil benchmark price is $74.73 per barrel. Compared to the $81.74 per barrel at the beginning of this month, it has decreased by -8.57%. The current crude oil market is facing multiple impacts. Firstly, the capacity policy adjustment of OPEC+has become a key variable, and its production decisions directly affect the market supply situation. Secondly, as the crude oil market shifts from the traditional peak demand season to the off-season, the support of seasonal factors for oil prices gradually weakens. Especially as one of the world’s major crude oil consuming countries, China’s demand changes have a significant leading role in the trend of the oil market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market surged and fell in July. As of July 30th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.25% from the beginning of the month.

Specifically, PTA continued to reduce inventory in early July, coupled with tight supply from some ports and active downstream buying, boosting the PTA market. At the same time, the international crude oil market has risen, providing upward support for PTA costs, leading to a surge in PTA prices at the beginning of the month. However, with the restart of some PTA facilities and an increase in market supply, the tense atmosphere of supply in some ports has eased. Starting from the second half of the month, downstream polyester factories will gradually reduce production and raise prices, reducing the demand for PTA. In addition, the market is generally concerned about weak demand for crude oil, with European and American crude oil futures falling to their lowest level in six weeks. The weak fundamentals and downward cost support have led to a continuous decline in PTA prices. Although some PTA plants were temporarily shut down during this period, the boosting effect on the PTA market was average.

In terms of demand, as the end of the month approaches, downstream users have concentrated their purchases in the early stage, and their willingness to inquire is not strong, resulting in a significant decrease in the production and sales of polyester filament. Recently, polyester filament manufacturers have been adhering to a fixed price model under the background of guaranteed processing fees, which has effectively supported prices; However, on the demand side, downstream factories have poor procurement of raw materials due to high temperatures, high costs, and high inventory, which has dragged down prices.

Business analysts believe that the overall production and sales are flat and difficult to fundamentally change in the short term. The polyester filament market is stable with small fluctuations, and the fundamentals of polyester filament in August are still mainly weak, with a relatively high possibility of price stability.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4016 yuan/ton. The overall market price of DMF showed a continuous downward trend in July, and rebounded slightly at the end of July. Under cost pressure, manufacturers have a low willingness to offer discounts. DMF prices in July have hit a new historical low, and the overall market needs to be maintained. At the beginning of July, DMF enterprises had more equipment parking and less supply on site. After a brief upward trend, prices continued to decline, and the weak market continued to rebound at the end of July, with a slight rebound.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost, DMF’s main upstream product, liquid ammonia, showed a significant decline in early July. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the trading atmosphere did not improve. The overall market price continued to consolidate weakly, with a small amount of shipments being the main focus. The downstream market demand was sluggish, and the mentality of first-time buyers was pessimistic and cautious. Ammonia companies adjusted their prices according to their own situation. Currently, the overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the operating rate is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with upstream methanol showing a weak downward trend. The spot market is under pressure, and the good news of the equipment is exhausted. Downstream demand continues to not improve, and port inventory continues to increase, rising to historical highs. The supplier’s supply is sufficient, and the overall market’s buying gas is insufficient, causing prices to fall accordingly. Double Upstream prices are weakly declining, and DMF lacks positive support on the cost side.

In terms of demand: July is the off-season for DMF, and downstream agricultural demand is mainly for essential purchases after September. The market transaction atmosphere is insufficient, and it is difficult to boost terminal demand. The pressure on enterprise inventory is high, and the downstream market is developing slowly. The situation of oversupply is obvious. Currently, the profitability of the industry is not optimistic, and some small and medium-sized enterprises can only suspend production indefinitely to cope with the current high inventory and difficult inventory situation. Downstream demand has rebounded at the end of July, and the operating rate of DMF enterprises has declined. The terminal receiving sentiment has not improved significantly.

In terms of production capacity: DMF has gradually increased in recent years and entered a stage of rapid growth. In the past three years, the production capacity growth rate has reached 94.5%. The total domestic DMF production capacity has grown from 910000 tons/year to 1.77 million tons/ton in the past three years, which is close to doubling. However, the development of downstream areas is slow, lacking support from new industries, and the demand follow-up is weak, resulting in the DMF market being in a situation of overcapacity. From 2020 to 2022, DMF prices soared from 10000 yuan to nearly 20000 yuan, and industry profits remained high. Many manufacturers have started to put into production facilities and concentrate production. With the significant increase in production capacity, the situation of oversupply in the market has emerged, The price of DMF continued to decline, and factories began to indefinitely shut down. In the first half of 2024, only one company received news of equipment being put into operation, while many small and medium-sized enterprises received news of parking, resulting in inventory backlog, difficulties in inventory clearance, and intensified market pressure and competition. However, companies can only alleviate their existing inventory pressure by shutting down production.

In terms of inventory: In July, DMF factory inventory was mainly consumed in a narrow range, with slow release of terminal demand and overall weak sales sentiment. Downstream manufacturers maintained their previous production levels, with stable operating rates and limited demand for DMF. Currently, there are still several companies whose equipment has been shut down and the opening time has not been specified. The supply in the factory has slightly decreased, and downstream manufacturers are cautious.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market has been experiencing narrow fluctuations recently, with a slight rebound in prices. Currently, the mentality of industry players is somewhat average, mainly cautious and cautious in purchasing for essential needs. Upstream methanol has stopped falling and stabilized, and port performance is relatively strong. The current supply and demand situation has improved, and DMF has received positive support on the cost side. It is expected that DMF prices will mainly operate strongly in the short term, with a price increase range of 30-50 yuan/ton. The mainstream market quotation is around 4000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has been weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2143 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% during the week.

This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range is 2100-2200 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 2100 yuan/ton. The upstream price of sodium metabisulfite is stable, and the market atmosphere for sodium metabisulfite is quiet, with orders being the main source of sales. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the sodium metabisulfite market is experiencing sluggish trading, and domestic market prices may mainly fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 8th to 12th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 9042 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.87%. The domestic BDO market is running weakly, with contract orders trading and light spot negotiations. Recently, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has decreased, the supply of spot goods in the market has decreased, and the supply side’s stable market mentality continues. But the actual demand downstream is average, and the export price of new production capacity is relatively low. The overall market situation is deadlocked due to the game between supply and demand.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment: Although Inner Mongolia Junzheng’s new production capacity is running at a negative level, the Henan He Coal plant stopped for maintenance on July 10th. Coupled with the fact that the previous maintenance equipment has not yet been restored, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has dropped to below 60%. In the short term, there are certain positive factors on the supply side, and the supplier’s market stability mentality is the main focus. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: Due to losses, the operating rate of calcium carbide production enterprises continues to decline. Downstream enterprises in some regions have completed maintenance, and there is an expectation of increased demand. In the short term, there may be slight regional differences in the domestic calcium carbide market. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is experiencing weak consolidation. As of 10:00 am on July 12th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2555 yuan/ton. The BDO cost side is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the main terminal product spandex is forced to offer discounts and promotions due to sales and high inventory pressure, resulting in a decline in market conditions and increased losses. There is a strong bargaining sentiment towards the raw material PTMEG. The load of other downstream industries is relatively low, and there is no significant improvement in raw material consumption. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, some BDO units will restart and the supply of goods will increase, but the overall load will still be below 60%, and the supplier’s market stability mentality will continue. The main terminal product spandex market is relatively low, and other downstream companies also urgently need to follow suit. The supply-demand game continues, and BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market will have limited fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride slightly declined in early May, with prices falling within 50 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. As of the end of this week, potassium chloride was quoted at 2516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%.

2、 Market analysis

In the first half of the year, the domestic potassium chloride market continued its previous consolidation trend, with little fluctuation. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the low arrival volume from April to May, the domestic market has shown a basic balance between supply and demand, and there has been no surplus situation in the market. The price still remains rigid and strong. However, downstream factories generally have a resistance towards high prices, and the peak season for spring farming procurement is gradually coming to an end. Most enterprises have already replenished their inventory in the early stage, and the demand for compound fertilizer manufacturers is decreasing.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the performance of the downstream potassium fertilizer market is average, with price fluctuations varying and not significant. In the first half of the month, the market price of potassium carbonate slightly increased, rising from 6950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7050 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.4%. The potassium nitrate market has slightly declined, with a decrease of 0.25%. The price has dropped from 4962 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4950 yuan/ton at the end of this week. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride is sluggish, which may pose a constraint on potassium chloride in the later stage.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may continue to be weak. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has temporarily remained sluggish, but with the weakening of agricultural demand in Northeast China and the weakening of potassium fertilizer demand, potassium chloride procurement may show a downward trend, and compound fertilizer factories mainly produce nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore, the price of potassium chloride may fall weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the isobutene market has shown a downward trend since May, with the benchmark price of isobutene at 12225 yuan/ton in early May. As of May 28th, the standard price of isobutene was 12025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. A decrease of 1.64%. In mid to early May, the price of isobutene remained stable, and after May 14th, the price of isobutene began to decline continuously. The price trend of MTBE on the cost side fluctuates slightly, but overall shows a fluctuating downward trend.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

On May 23rd, international crude oil futures continued to decline. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.87 per barrel, a decrease of $0.70 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.36 per barrel, a decrease of $0.54 or 0.7%. As of now, crude oil has been falling for four consecutive trading days, with WTI crude oil falling to a nearly three-month low. The main reason is that the high interest rate environment in the United States has brought pressure to demand, and in addition, US inventory data is bearish and geopolitical risk premiums are decreasing.

The domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and falling. From May 1st to 31st, the price of MTBE dropped from 7212 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.55% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.47%. This month, many manufacturers are exporting normally, but the overall supply of spot goods is still relatively high. The overall demand for gasoline is relatively flat. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the domestic MTBE market is mainly weak and consolidating.

3、 Future Market Forecast

On the cost side, the overall decline in international oil prices in May combined with the sluggish trend of the MTBE market has constrained the price trend due to changes in expectations. The isobutene market is showing a downward trend. Partial maintenance and resumption of work for isobutene have resulted in a relaxed supply of domestic goods. Downstream demand lacks favorable incentives, and retail shipments are average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the domestic isobutene market may continue to be weak in the short term.

Zinc prices increased significantly in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the zinc price was 24634 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.37% from the zinc price of 23378 yuan/ton on May 1; The zinc price has increased by 14.11% compared to 21588 yuan/ton on January 1st; The zinc price has increased by 21.54% compared to the lowest point of the year on February 19th, 20268 yuan/ton. In May, zinc prices reached a new high in 2024 and were at the highest level within a year. The detection position in May was at the highest level within a year, rising from the median to the mid high level within two years, reaching the median level within three years, and reaching the mid high level at the end of the month. May continued to be on the alert for over inflation within a year. The warning of excessive increase in zinc prices continues, increasing the risk of a decline in zinc prices, and the risk of a sharp drop in zinc prices in the future continues to intensify.

Domestic zinc ingot inventory slightly decreased in May

From the domestic zinc ingot inventory statistics chart for 2024, it can be seen that the zinc ingot inventory has significantly increased, and the zinc market has sufficient supply in 2024; In May, zinc ingot inventory slightly decreased, and the domestic zinc market supply was tight. The support of rising zinc prices remains.

In April 2024, China’s zinc production was 586000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; The cumulative production from January to April was 2.473 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. The production of zinc in the market has decreased, and the domestic supply of zinc has tightened.

Growth in demand for zinc in the market

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s air conditioning production in April 2024 was 30.331 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%; The cumulative production from January to April was 99.14 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. In April, the national refrigerator production was 9.336 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%; The cumulative production from January to April was 32.859 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. In April, the national production of washing machines reached 9.443 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; The cumulative production from January to April was 35.462 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. In April, the national production of color televisions was 17.316 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%; The cumulative production from January to April was 60.631 million units, which remained unchanged year-on-year. The production of major domestic household appliances has increased significantly, leading to an increase in demand for zinc in the market.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, in terms of supply, the international market’s zinc ingot inventory is low, and the domestic zinc market inventory has slightly decreased. In addition, the domestic zinc market production has slightly decreased, and the supply of zinc in the market is tight, providing significant support for the rise in zinc prices; In terms of demand, the production of major household appliances has increased year-on-year, coupled with policy incentives to revive the real estate market, the domestic zinc market is expected to see a rebound in demand, and the pressure on zinc prices to rise has increased. Weak supply and strong demand are expected to lead to a high consolidation of zinc prices in the future.

In May, the domestic dimethyl ether market experienced a stepwise decline. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3965 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 3915 yuan/ton on May 30th. The monthly decline was 1.26%, a decrease of 5.09% compared to the same period last year.

As of May 30th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 4100 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3800 yuan/ton

In May, the domestic dimethyl ether market was overall cost driven, with prices falling overall. At the beginning of the month, due to the continuous increase in raw material methanol, dimethyl ether enterprises were forced to keep up with the increase. Downstream demand was cold, resistance was strengthened, and the cost pressure on enterprises increased. Due to demand constraints, the increase was weak. Finally, the increase in raw material prices gave up, reducing the cost pressure on dimethyl ether enterprises, increasing production enthusiasm, and lowering the price of dimethyl ether in a stepped manner under pressure.

In May, the raw material methanol market surged and fell, with an average price of 2651 yuan/ton on May 1st and 2782 yuan/ton on May 30th, a monthly increase of 4.92%, supporting methanol from strong to weak.

Overall, the profit margin of dimethyl ether has been released, and market purchases and sales have returned to calm. There is not much pressure on on-site inventory, and it is expected that dimethyl ether will maintain stable operation in the short term.