This week (6.26-30), domestic Adipic acid continued to decline. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 30, the weekly decline of Adipic acid was 0.66%. The market trading center has shifted down by about 100 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of Adipic acid market is 8900-9200 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, the lack of support for raw materials and the weak supply-demand pattern will remain unchanged.

Industrial chain

The above figure shows that this week, the Adipic acid industry chain as a whole was cold, the shock range of upstream products was weakened, and the raw materials fell across the whole line. The downstream main product PA66 remained stable, and the price did not improve.

Cost side: The overall cost of raw materials is relatively empty

This week’s crude oil range fluctuated, lacking strong guidance. The domestic pure benzene price continued to decline, but the decline narrowed compared to last week, with a decline of 0.05% this week (a decrease of 0.21% last week). The main refinery’s quotation has not changed much, and the supply side is relatively abundant, with a backlog of goods, and the market is still in the process of destocking. The price of Cyclohexanone continued its previous weakness. This week, it failed to continue the rising trend of last week, falling slightly by 0.42%. In terms of cost, the upstream raw material market is dominated by weak operation, and the lack of cost support gives Adipic acid manufacturers the power to further reduce prices.

Supply side: There is little change in enterprise equipment

From the perspective of market supply: in terms of devices, the overall change of Adipic acid this week was not significant, maintaining about 65%. The prices of major manufacturers continued to decline this week, and the quotations of Shandong manufacturers were reduced to 100 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s previous market support effect was not ideal, and shipments were hindered, resulting in concentrated price reductions for later shipments, but it was affected by weak demand. The manufacturer’s shipping speed has slowed down. At present, there is a lack of positive guidance on the supply side.

On the demand side: it is difficult to form a strong boost on the demand side

The downstream of Adipic acid is relatively depressed. The terminal procurement just needs support, and there are relatively few orders. Taking PA66 as an example, the price hovered at a low level this week, making it difficult to break free from the weak fluctuation range. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, PA66 fell by 0% this week. At the weekend, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang is between 19500 to 19800 yuan/ton. In addition, the turnover of Caprolactam in other downstream areas was weak, and the price was low. TPU entered the off-season of the industry, and the orders were reduced. The demand was difficult to improve, so the turnover of Adipic acid was reduced.

Future prospects

With regard to the future market, Adipic acid analysts from the business community believed that, on the cost side, crude oil was affected by the hawkish expectation that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike had not ended, and fuel demand was suppressed. There is a lack of positive guidance on the cost side. Pure benzene and Cyclohexanone are also in a stalemate, and prices are expected to fall. The supply and demand sides may continue to maintain a weak balance, with low production and low demand continuing to play a game. In general, Adipic acid is expected to be dominated by weak operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic NMP market steadily declined in June. At the beginning of the month, the average price of electronic grade NMP was 1800 yuan/ton. On June 29th, the average price was 17333 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 3.7%.

2、 Analysis and Review

As of June 29th, the mainstream prices of NMP bulk water in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ June 29th

East China/ 15500-16000 yuan/ton

Central China/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ 15000-16000 yuan/ton

The NMP market steadily declined in June, and the overall performance was average. Starting from the beginning of the month, downstream demand has rebounded relatively slowly, and the overall market performance is average. The slight rebound in upstream raw materials has limited impact on the NMP market. NMP manufacturers are following the market trend, but due to the low price, the market is stagnant and running smoothly. Throughout the month, the guidance of positive news is unclear, leading to a weak mentality among businesses. Under the leadership of buyers, the NMP market is prone to decline but difficult to rise.

In June, the price of raw material BDO changed from a decline to an increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market in June first fell and then rose, with a consolidation of fluctuations. From June 1st to 26th, the average price of domestic BDO increased from 11300 yuan/ton to 11422 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.09% during the cycle.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to NMP analysts from Business Society, the current downstream construction of NMP is relatively low, and under demand constraints, it is expected that in the short term, NMP prices will be adjusted and operated at a low level in the future.

In June, the market of chloroform fell sharply. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 28, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 2025 yuan/ton, down 10.99% from 2275 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw methanol fluctuated and fell, and the cost support of chloroform weakened; The downstream refrigerant R22 enters the off-season, and the demand is insufficient for chloroform support; Methane chloride is low before commencement and high after commencement, and the supply of trichloromethane is generally loose; The overall operation of the industrial chain is weak.

In June, the methane chloride unit declined in the early stage of construction, and in the late month, with the restart and load increase of Fuqiang and Huatai, the methane chloride increased slightly in the late stage of construction, and the overall supply of trichloromethane was still under pressure.

In June, the price of raw material methanol was weak and volatile, and the cost support of chloroform was weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 28th, the spot price of methanol was 2097 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.97% from 2161 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The low point of the cycle is 2015 yuan/ton, and the high point is 2190 yuan/ton.

The price of R22 was stable in June. With the end of the peak season, the overall support for chloroform was weaker than in the previous period. Overall, the total production quota for R22 in 2023 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of the business society, the demand for chloroform at the end of the peak season is generally weak, coupled with the pressure on the supply side, and it is expected that the market for chloroform will be weak and consolidated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of bromine has temporarily stabilized this week. The average market price of bromine from June 20th to June 27th was 18000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 69.18%. On June 26th, the bromine commodity index was 63.16, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 74.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 7.20% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

Bromine prices have been running smoothly this week. The mainstream market price in Shandong region is around 17500-18500 yuan/ton, and there is currently no significant fluctuation in the market. The overall trading atmosphere in the bromine market is light, and supply has increased. The downstream support is average, and the flame retardant and intermediate industries are still mainly purchasing according to demand in the near future. The attitude of the bromine industry is average. The intention to stabilize the price of bromine is relatively obvious, and the shipment is average, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur market is operating weakly, with an average market price of 796.67 yuan/ton on June 20th and 746.67 yuan/ton on June 27th. The price has decreased by 6.28%, a year-on-year decrease of 79.98%. Manufacturers have sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing in the market is not good. A small amount of trading follows up on demand, resulting in a weak market negotiation atmosphere and a weak sulfur market.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will continue to operate steadily in the near future, while the upstream sulfur price will decline. The demand for downstream flame retardants and intermediates in the bromine industry will continue to be average in the near future. Bromine companies have a clear intention to support prices in the near future, and the overall attitude of the industry is pessimistic. Overall, it is expected that the short-term bromine price will consolidate the operating market, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of June 26, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 7316 yuan/ton. Compared with June 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7166 yuan/ton), the price increased by 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.09%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that from June to present (6.1 to 6.26), the overall market for n-butanol in the Shandong region of China has shown a downward trend followed by an upward trend. In early June, the n-butanol market was operating in a weak state, with loose downstream demand for n-butanol and insufficient support from the demand side for n-butanol. The supply and demand transmission of n-butanol was hindered, and the supply-demand contradiction intensified. The n-butanol market continued to decline, with a 10 day decrease of around 500 to 600 yuan/ton. As of June 11th, the market price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was around 6500-6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.67% compared to the beginning of the month.

In late June, the n-butanol market ushered in a stop falling and rising operation. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the downstream of n-butanol ushered in a phased replenishment. The downstream demand improved, the supply and demand of n-butanol in the market were smooth, the n-butanol market started to warm up, and the overall focus of the market continued to move up. As of June 26, the price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region was around 7250-7350 yuan/ton, with a 10.58% increase in the late stage.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, after the Dragon Boat Festival, the rising trend of the n-butanol market has slowed down, the overall trading atmosphere in the market is general, and the downstream mainly digests raw materials. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province is mostly stable and consolidated, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the vitamin market has remained stable and slightly volatile this week, with some products experiencing active inquiries and entering the summer. Some products have entered the maintenance concentration period, while most products are operating at the bottom and lack upward momentum.

According to price monitoring by Business Society, the vitamin C market has been running smoothly this week, with mainstream feed grade vitamin C prices ranging from 21 to 22 yuan/kg. The overall trading volume in the vitamin C market is light, with a high proportion of small orders being traded. Downstream markets just need to enter the market, with weak demand. The overall market situation is mostly in line with the market, and there is currently no significant positive support, indicating a weak performance.

This week, the price of vitamin A is temporarily stable, with the mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A in the market being 88-90 yuan/kg, and the quotation in the European market being 20-24 euros/kg. The vitamin A market has stable trading volume, with an oversupply of domestic vitamin A and weak demand, making it difficult to improve.

The price of vitamin E has not fluctuated much this week, and the current mainstream quotation in the VE market is between 72-78 yuan/ton. The European market offers a price of 7.4 to 7.7 euros per kilogram. The weather has turned hot, with an increase in planned maintenance companies and expectations of reduced supply, vitamin E prices have shown strong performance.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that some vitamins are currently in the bottom consolidation stage, with small and mostly single traded transactions on the market, lacking upward momentum. They will closely monitor the production, sales, and market trends of enterprises in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has little fluctuation, and the domestic light rare earth market is mainly stable. On June 18, the rare earth index was 480 points, a decrease of 52.33% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 77.12% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy are mainly stable, with metal neodymium and metal praseodymium prices slightly increasing, while praseodymium neodymium oxide prices slightly decreasing. As of the 19th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 577500 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 495000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 1.49%; The price of neodymium oxide is 505000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price remains unchanged; The price of neodymium metal is 640000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.79%; The price of metal praseodymium is 655000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 3.15%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 515000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price is stable.

In mid June, the light rare earth market was mainly volatile, and in May, the light rare earth market stopped falling and rebounded. In the early stage, the price of light rare earth had been declining for a long time, and due to the increase in inquiries, the prices quoted by the holders were relatively firm, resulting in an increase in actual transaction prices. However, after June, demand support was insufficient, and the light rare earth market was mainly volatile. At present, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium is still upside down, mainly to ensure the supply of long-term orders. Intermediaries are cautious in replenishing small quantities, and transactions are limited. Recently, both rare earth production and market inventory have decreased, with a tight supply of raw materials and limited market stock. Sellers are cautious in their quotations, and the transaction situation is average. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the overall trend of rare earth product prices is relatively stable.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 713000 and 717000 units respectively in May, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.05 million and 2.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.1% and 46.8%, and a market share of 27.7%. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, and the order and reserve quantities of neodymium iron boron enterprises have increased, laying the foundation for the rise of rare earth prices in the future. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly fluctuate and rise in the short term. In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, in energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning Driven by emerging and traditional demand such as consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has shown a stable trend. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the average factory price of PA66 in China on June 16th was 20333.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.56% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market continued its previous weak trend, and overall, spot prices of various brands remained stable. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry remained at around 60% this week, a narrow decrease compared to the previous period. The coexistence of enterprise construction and maintenance shows a trend of rotating negative reduction, but the on-site supply is relatively sufficient, so the supply contraction is not significant in supporting the spot goods. Poor inventory digestion has affected corporate confidence, and pricing operations are cautious. In the upstream, Adipic acid continued to decline, and raw materials such as pure benzene and Cyclohexanone were still empty. The manufacturer’s inventory and social inventory were both high. The raw material side of PA66 has poor support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is stable with some weaknesses, and terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production. Buyers generally have limited acceptance of high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 remained stable this week. The weakening of the raw material market has led to poor support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and the supply support is not obvious. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak consolidation market in the short term.

This week’s lead market (6.2-6.9) fluctuated upwards, with the average price in the domestic market at 14950 yuan/ton over the weekend and 15055 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 0.7%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated weakly after the holiday.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai lead overall rose this week. Over the weekend, the decline in the US dollar led to a general strengthening of the metal market, while London lead rose and Shanghai lead followed suit. In terms of supply and demand, there are some production reduction plans for primary and secondary lead enterprises in the near future, and the market is expected to tighten supply. However, in terms of demand, the seasonal off-season atmosphere is strong, and the news of production reduction of battery enterprises has also been released in the off-season atmosphere, which offset the good news from the supply side. The Spot market as a whole shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the future, the Business Society predicts that the main trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season. We will pay attention to the impact of macro level news on the market in the future.

London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory of 36800 tons on June 9, 2023 will be temporarily stable (unit: ton)

On June 11th, the base metal index stood at 1179 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 83.64% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 15 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 23rd week of 2023 (6.5-6.9), with zinc (3.59%), tin (3.50%), and silver (3.38%) ranking among the top three commodities on the list. There are four products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with magnesium (-1.49%), antimony (-0.61%), and metallic silicon (-0.56%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.9%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic rare earth market price index has slightly increased, while the domestic heavy rare earth market has slightly increased. On June 8, the rare earth index was 476 points, a decrease of 52.73% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 75.65% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The domestic prices of Dysprosium(III) oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, terbium oxide and metal terbium rose slightly. As of September 9, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.115 million yuan/ton, up 1.68% this week; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.07 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.98% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.68 million yuan/ton, with a stable price trend; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.3 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.45 million yuan/ton.

This week, the heavy rare earth market rebounded slightly, with an increase in recent inquiries and a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earth market price has slightly increased. The domestic heavy rare earth market is relatively active in terms of inquiry and quotation, with a slight increase in trading volume. However, downstream demand is still weak, metal factory orders are relatively scarce, and magnetic material factories mainly consume existing inventory. In addition, with an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, the supply of rare earth is sufficient, and the pessimism of the rare earth market remains strong.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 713000 and 717000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.05 million and 2.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.1% and 46.8%, and a market share of 27.7%. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data in May was 4576 tons; From January to May 2023, a total of 20987.2 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. China’s rare earth commodity exports decreased, which correspondingly suppressed the price increase in the domestic medium and heavy rare earth market.

Future forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, and downstream demand has not changed much. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth market will fluctuate and rise mainly in the short term. In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demand such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.