According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic butadiene market in July saw a unilateral upward trend. From July 1st to 27th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 5973 yuan/ton to 7201 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 20.56% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 26.03%.

At the beginning of the month, major production enterprises such as Sinopec raised their factory quotations, which boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, but downstream companies resisted high prices. The transaction of some offshore cargo in South Korea and Southeast Asia is still acceptable, but the price is still lower than the domestic spot price, so it is temporarily difficult to bring a significant boost to the domestic market.

In mid month, the domestic butadiene market saw a significant increase. On the one hand, parking news was concentrated, and the utilization rate of production capacity in the butadiene industry decreased; The high transaction price of the external market has boosted the sentiment of domestic merchants; At the same time, the downstream synthetic rubber market has strengthened, the price difference between upstream and downstream has widened, and the fundamentals of the butadiene market have been supported.

In the latter half of the month, prices for external and domestic production enterprises were firm, boosting merchants’ attitude towards offering. At the same time, downstream construction and profit conditions were still good, and there was some support for demand in the face of the market. With the arrival of imported cargo at the port, port inventory has increased, and some early maintenance equipment has restarted, leading to an increase in domestic production. Supply side expectations have led to cautious downstream inquiries, and the increase in butadiene market prices has weakened.

On the cost side, the crude oil market surged in July, and WTI crude oil reached its highest point in the past three months. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.74 per barrel, an increase of $1.67 or 2.0%. The oil market has been boosted by the expected tightening of supply and continued fermentation, as well as the rebound in demand. As of July 26th, the Federal Reserve announced a 25bp interest rate hike, coupled with a lower than expected decline in US crude oil inventories, resulting in profit taking in crude oil futures and pressure on prices.

In July, the price of domestic local refining Naphtha continued to rise. Supported by the just need of terminal restructuring, refineries actively pushed it up, and the deal was good. As of July 27, the benchmark price of Naphtha of the business community was 8134.00 yuan/ton, up 5.24% from 7729.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The cost of butadiene is significantly positive.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec East China Sales Company has repeatedly raised the price of butadiene to 7200 yuan/ton. The short-term supply side of butadiene is affected by a bullish trend.

On the demand side, due to the favorable cost of butadiene and the impact of production enterprise equipment maintenance, some products in the downstream synthetic rubber market have shown a significant increase, while downstream industry profits are still acceptable. There is currently no significant drag on the demand side. The demand for butadiene is relatively strong.

In terms of external trading: On July 26th, the closing price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB South Korea was quoted at $665-675 per ton; China CFR reports 715-725 US dollars per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $305- $315 per ton; FD Northwestern Europe closed at 465-475 euros/ton.

In the future, it is predicted that some maintenance devices will be restarted one after another, and there is an expectation of an increase in domestic production. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will be mainly volatile and organized.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of July 25, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 7800 yuan/ton. Compared with July 1 (reference price of propylene glycol 7166), the price increased by 667 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.84%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that since July (7.1-7.25), the overall domestic propylene glycol market has shown a “first decline and then rise” operating trend. In early July, the propylene glycol market was generally weak and slightly declining, with a high cost side providing some cost support for propylene glycol. However, downstream demand performance was poor and demand was dragging down. In the early stages of July, the overall decline in the propylene glycol market was the main trend. As of July 15th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was referenced around 7000-7300 yuan/ton, and the high price was referenced around 7500 yuan/ton.

In late July, the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole experienced a rebound, with some propylene glycol plants being shut down for maintenance. The on-site supply of propylene glycol decreased, and the spot circulation was tight. The tight prices were good, and the propylene glycol market began to rise strongly. The market center was moving upwards. As of July 25th, the domestic propylene glycol market price was around 7700-7900 yuan/ton, with a 10.38% increase in late July.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, after the propylene glycol market has risen to a relatively high level, the wait-and-see sentiment on the market has become stronger, downstream stocking has gradually become cautious, and the trading atmosphere on the market is relatively mild. The propylene glycol data analyst of the business company believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mostly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese market fell slightly this week (from July 14 to July 21). The price of Spot market in East China was 15900 yuan/ton on July 14, down 0.93%.

In terms of manganese ore: This week, the manganese ore market maintained a weak trend of consolidation. As steel mills gradually entered the factory through bidding, the activity of manganese ore inquiries increased. The actual transaction situation was average, with manufacturers mainly purchasing in small quantities and prices showing slight confusion. The Qinzhou Port manganese mine has seen mixed ups and downs, with a relatively low supply of South African iron ore and a high concentration of cargo rights. The quotation has increased by about 1 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price has also increased, while other minerals have declined to varying degrees. As of July 21, the overall price of Port of Tianjin fluctuated slightly, with South Africa’s semi carbonate of 30.8-31 yuan/ton, Australia’s 39-39.5 yuan/ton and Gabon’s 37.3-37.5 yuan/ton; The transaction price of semi carbonic acid in Qinzhou Port is around 29.8 yuan/ton, the price of high grade Australian seeds is around 36 yuan/ton, the price of Australian blocks is 39 yuan/ton, the price of Gabon is 37-37.5 yuan/ton, and the price of high grade South Africa is 37.5-38 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for five consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight recovery in May, prices have been declining for five consecutive weeks since June.

The electrolytic manganese market has been operating weakly this week, with mainstream prices ranging from 14100 to 14200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 to 200 yuan/ton compared to last week. Recently, the overall market has been weak. After entering June, the electrolytic manganese market has been declining for five consecutive weeks, with slightly lower market sentiment and a narrow decline in the market. The overall downstream demand is weak. The changes in supply and demand are limited, and the realization is still weak. The performance of steel recruitment has been poor this week, with prices continuing to decline and market inquiries being weak. The downstream market still performs weakly, with a strong attitude towards price pressure, and the market continues to decline. The FOB price is between 1920-1950 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars per ton compared to last week. Overall, downstream demand is still weak, and it is expected to remain weak in the future, waiting for more guidance on steel bidding prices.

This week, the silicon manganese market performed well, driven by the rise in market prices, spot prices briefly stopped falling and stabilized, and the market’s low sentiment slightly stabilized. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quotation for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) on July 21st was around 6400-6550 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6463 yuan/ton.

Related data:

On July 23, the base metal index stood at 1214 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.88% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 89.10% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 29th week of 2023 (7.17-7.21), of which 3 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities in terms of increase were dysprosium metal (7.01%), dysprosium iron alloy (6.30%) and Dysprosium(III) oxide (6.02%). There are a total of 7 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-3.55%), copper (-1.09%), and antimony (-0.98%) being the top 3 products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.95%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, at the beginning of the week, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7380.00 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi’s light potassium carbonate was 7340.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.51%. The current price has decreased by 5.90% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 27.33% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices have fallen this week. From the above chart, it can be seen that the recent decline in the potassium carbonate market has been the main trend, and the market has continued to decline slightly this week. The market price of Potassium chloride was consolidated, the cost support was general, the downstream procurement remained just in demand, and the transaction of potassium carbonate market was light, and the market declined. According to statistics from Business Society, the mainstream factory quotation range for industrial grade potassium carbonate in China this week is around 6700-7300 yuan/ton (for reference only), and the quotation varies depending on the procurement situation.

In the near future, the overall trend of Potassium chloride market may decline in a narrow range, mainly finishing. On July 21, the distribution price of Potassium chloride of Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. was about 2700 yuan/ton, the quotation was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Salt Lake and Zangger Potassium chloride prices were adjusted at a low level. The downstream market of Potassium chloride fluctuates with each other. The downstream demand is general, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand.

Recently, domestic Potassium chloride traders have a strong intention to support the price, and the market is expected to rise. Affected by cost support, it is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will be slightly higher in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see.

Domestic P-Xylene price trend:

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price trend rose this week. As of the weekend, the factory price of P-Xylene in China was 8400 yuan/ton, 1.82% higher than the price of 8250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 12.04% year on year.

The domestic supply of P-Xylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. However, in the maintenance of some P-Xylene devices, the spot supply is slightly tight, and the price of PX in the external market has risen. As of the 13th, the closing price in Asia was 1010-1012 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1036-1038 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has fluctuated mainly. On the whole, the operating rate of P-Xylene units in Asia is about 70%. The supply of PX goods in Asia has not changed much. Affected by the rise in external prices, the price of P-Xylene in the domestic market has risen.

This week’s crude oil price trend has risen, with the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States at $76.89 per barrel as of the 13th, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures at $81.36 per barrel. On the one hand, the production reduction of the OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) has exacerbated supply concerns. On the other hand, the United States Department of Energy’s plan to replenish the strategic oil reserve also warmed up the oil market. On July 7, the US announced that it would purchase an additional 6 million barrels of crude oil to replenish the strategic oil reserve. The procurement plan will be carried out in October and November. Finally, the US dollar strengthened, Asian demand growth boosted international oil prices, supported by demand in the summer peak oil season, and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) data report on Wednesday showed a rapid decline in crude oil inventories. Multiple favorable factors supported the rising trend of international oil prices, which affected the rising trend of domestic P-Xylene market.

The downstream PTA market price trend has increased this week, with an average PTA market price of around 59100 yuan/ton as of the 14th. The price has increased by 2.86% this week. On the supply side of PTA, the operating rate of PTA has decreased to around 73% this week, and PTA factory inventory has slightly decreased, leading to a rise in PTA market prices. Downstream polyester is mainly in demand for restocking, and demand end textile enterprises have staged restocking actions. However, with the arrival of the high temperature season, textile and clothing consumption is in the off-season stage, with insufficient terminal orders and a slight increase. The weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 65%, and downstream PTA market prices are rising, while PX prices are rising.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst from the business community, believes that the current oil market is supported by favorable factors. In the short term, the price of crude oil is mainly rising, coupled with a slight rise in the downstream PTA market. However, the demand of the textile industry is weak, and the purchase on demand is mainly. In general, it is expected that the price of P-Xylene market will be stable in the later period.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have fluctuated and increased this week. As of July 14th, the spot nickel quotation was 173366.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.98% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight rebound in recent times.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

On the macro level, as China’s RMB exchange rate continues to rise, the highly anticipated Federal Reserve inflation data has been released. The data shows that the year-on-year increase in US CPI has continued to decline from 4% in May to 3%, lower than the market expectation of 3.1%. It has been on a downward trend for the 12th consecutive month. Affected by the cooling of US inflation, market expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates have weakened, the US dollar continues to decline, and the metal market has reversed and turned the tide to welcome a long-awaited surge.

In terms of supply: The newly added production capacity of domestic electrolytic nickel production has been put into operation and increased, with a month on month increase in refined nickel production in June. Two new nickel production lines were added in Indonesia in June, and Russian nickel imports continued to arrive, impacting the domestic market. Nickel iron is facing a surplus situation, and supply surplus still puts pressure on nickel prices.

In terms of demand: The demand for pure nickel is differentiated in the terminal field. Maintain an overall attitude of buying stocks on dips and avoiding high prices. In terms of stainless steel, there has been a slight reduction in production due to the 300 series; Ternary precursor orders recovered, new energy and alloy demand improved, and the price of battery grade Nickel(II) sulfate rose slightly.

In summary, the global nickel explicit inventory is still at a historical low level, which is beneficial for nickel prices. The domestic supply side has increased, while traditional demand has weakened while new energy has increased. In the context of macroeconomic recovery both domestically and internationally, it is expected that the short-term volatility of nickel prices will be mainly strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of toluene has been rising all the way this week. On July 3rd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7060.00 yuan/ton, while on July 7th, the benchmark price was 7210.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.12%.

2、 Analysis and Review

China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America; Saudi Arabia has stated that it will extend its voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day for another month, while Russia has also stated that it will reduce production by 500000 barrels per day in August, bringing the total promised production reduction by OPEC+to 5.16 million barrels per day; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America.

There is still a possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July, and market risks remain; Entering the summer season, the demand for tourism has increased, and the demand for gasoline is strong. The production enthusiasm of the main refinery has increased; The PMI in the United States decreased in June, and investors’ concerns about economic slowdown and energy demand have increased; Under weak supply and demand expectations, PX rebounded weakly, and short-term PX fluctuated with crude oil and downstream PTA.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, domestic TDI prices have shown an upward trend this week. According to TDI supplier information guidance, as factory prices gradually fall, the mindset of operators has changed, and the intention to sell low has weakened. There is an upward expectation for prices, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market. It is expected that TDI will be sorted out in the future. On July 3rd, the TDI benchmark price was 17300.00 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the price was 18100 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.62%.

In terms of downstream px, the price of px has remained stable this week. The benchmark price for PX on July 3rd was 8250 yuan/ton, and on July 7th it was 8250 yuan/ton, with no changes during the week. PX has good profits, the overall load will increase, and the supply side is showing a trend of oversupply. Terminal polyester has entered the off-season, and demand is difficult to improve. PX’s supply and demand expectations are weak, and the rebound is weak. Merchants are worried about the increase in supply, suppressing market strength, and PX will consolidate and operate in the short term.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline has seen a significant increase this week, but has fallen back over the weekend. On July 3rd, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8478.60 yuan/ton, and on July 7th, the price was 8730.80 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.97%. As the temperature gradually rises, the demand for gasoline in cars increases, and people travel more during the summer vacation. The tourism industry is booming, and gasoline demand is improving, with gasoline prices running higher.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The main positive factors for toluene this week are the production reduction plans of oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as the peak fuel consumption season in the United States in July and August, where gasoline demand support is still ongoing; The levying of consumption tax on some related products provides an opportunity for market speculation, and the toluene market takes advantage of this opportunity to rise; The bearish resistance in the international crude oil market has not been eliminated, but the fundamentals have strengthened, and it is expected that toluene prices may rise first and then decline. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and gasoline, the dynamics of toluene units, and the impact of downstream demand on prices.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the domestic carbon black market prices were relatively strong at the end of the month. On July 7th, the domestic carbon black N220 was quoted at 9166 yuan/ton.

Cost: In terms of raw materials, the market price of Coal tar fell and rose this week. So far, the market price of Coal tar is 4127 yuan/ton. After the introduction of the consumption tax policy, there are few new products in the market, and the overall operation of coke enterprises is poor. It is expected that the Coal tar market will be consolidated and operated in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, the overall inventory level of the carbon black industry is not high, and the market supply and demand are relatively balanced. Carbon black enterprises have strong quotations, and the carbon black market price has slightly increased.

In terms of demand: The overall operating situation of downstream rubber conveyor belt enterprises is poor, and the demand for carbon black in the market is further reduced. The downstream tire industry is still in the traditional sales off-season, and enterprise procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, with terminal demand continuing to be weak. At present, purchasing is mainly based on hard demand, and there is currently no obvious positive news in the market. From the demand side, the overall demand in the future is not very optimistic.

Overall, the cost side support has increased, inventory levels are not high, and there has been no significant improvement in the demand side. This week, the carbon black market has remained stagnant at a high level, and it is expected that the carbon black market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has slightly decreased this week. As of the 7th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9585.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74% compared to the 1st price of 9657.14 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.41%.

Supply side: Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined, with the mainstream price negotiated by various regions in China ranging from 9300 to 9700 yuan/ton. Poor demand has led to severe losses for hydrofluoric acid enterprises. Recently, some units have been shut down and waiting for market, resulting in a decrease in spot supply of hydrofluoric acid and a weak order situation for manufacturers. As a result, the hydrofluoric acid market has slightly declined, with raw material fluorite prices slightly declining, and downstream refrigerant demand not good, Less than 60% of the production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has started, and some enterprises have increased their inventory, which has affected the downward trend of the hydrofluoric acid market.

Raw material side: Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has slightly declined. As of the 7th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3062.5 yuan/ton, which is 1.76% lower than the 1st price of 3117.5 yuan/ton. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises remains high, and upstream mining is still tense. Backward mines will continue to be phased out, and new mines will still face difficulties in mineral investigation. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are not operating properly, resulting in environmental protection The requirements of emergency management departments and others are becoming stricter, and the difficulty of starting mining has increased. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market price still has support, with high prices for raw materials and heavy pressure on hydrofluoric acid enterprises.

On the demand side: The market for downstream refrigerant products at the terminal has declined, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has remained low. Due to quota elimination in the R22 market, large-scale units have replaced R507 products, resulting in a slow increase in product sales. The fluoropolymer market continues to be sluggish, refrigerant R22 manufacturers have low load, domestic market performance is weak, inventory digestion is the main focus, and procurement demand has not yet followed up. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is declining. Currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, while downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the demand for consumer orders has not yet warmed up. Market confidence is insufficient. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 23000-25000 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. The demand orders are still small, and the market is stagnant and declining. Overall, the refrigerant market is not good, In addition, the export market has declined, resulting in weak domestic and foreign demand. The refrigerant market has slightly declined, with scarce procurement of upstream raw materials, and the hydrofluoric acid market has been dragged down by demand.

Future Market Forecast: The upstream raw material fluorite market has slightly declined, but fluorite companies have a strong intention to increase prices. The downstream refrigerant industry remains sluggish in production, with weak procurement of hydrofluoric acid, high inventory of hydrofluoric acid, and resonance between high raw materials and poor demand. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the hydrofluoric acid market is unlikely to improve in the short term and the market remains sluggish.

Aluminium fluoride prices dropped in June

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 29, the quotation of Aluminium fluoride in China was 9900 yuan/ton, down 5.04% from the price of Aluminium fluoride on June 1, 10425 yuan/ton. The price of raw materials fell in shock, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell. In June, the price of Aluminium fluoride fell in shock.

The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 29th, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 9657.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% compared to the price of 9685.71 yuan/ton on June 1st at the beginning of the month. In June, the price of hydrofluoric acid fluctuated and fell, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell. In June, Aluminium fluoride fell under great pressure.

The price of raw material fluorite fluctuates and falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of June 29th, the price of fluorite was 3117.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% compared to June 1st, which was 3143.75 yuan/ton. In June, the price of fluorite fluctuated and fell, and the cost of Aluminium fluoride fell. In June, Aluminium fluoride fell under great pressure.

Market Overview and Forecast

Analysts from the fluoride aluminum industry at Business Society believe that in June, the prices of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite fluctuated and fell, resulting in a decrease in the cost of raw materials for aluminum fluoride and increased downward pressure on aluminum fluoride. In the future, the demand for cost reduction is still weak, and the downward pressure of Aluminium fluoride is increasing. It is expected that the price of Aluminium fluoride will fall in the future.