1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 68906.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% from the 68236.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 10.52%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, it has fallen by 4% and increased by 8%, with copper prices showing a slight increase recently.

Macroscopically, US economic data has been improving recently, with the People’s Bank of China lowering its MLF rate by 15 basis points and reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points, respectively, boosting market sentiment and preference for a rebound. China’s central bank report: resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot, support the resolution of local debt risks, adjust real estate policies in a timely manner, boost market confidence, appreciate the renminbi, and recover the prevalence of non-ferrous metals.

Supply side: The mining side remains abundant. The centralized maintenance of domestic smelting will be completed in August, and production will return to a relatively high level. However, it will face centralized maintenance again in September. Long orders of Russian copper continue to flow in, while the arrival pace of Lomo copper is lagging due to the impact of African transportation capacity. Some smelters have export plans.

On the demand side: In July, both Southern Power Grid and State Grid saw an increase in new orders, and some orders will be delivered in August, boosting the industry’s operating rate. Some air conditioning and refrigeration enterprises have entered the stage of equipment maintenance and vacation, and consumer support has weakened. The policy of ensuring the delivery of real estate has boosted the completion data, but the front-end data is still weak and faces the risk of weak follow-up. It is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. In terms of electronics, demand is slowly recovering.

In summary, the domestic policy efforts continue to increase to benefit the market. In August, the domestic maintenance is completed, and production is expected to return to a new high. Demand is expected to be strong and weak, with copper prices expected to fluctuate mainly.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of August 14th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7066.67 yuan/ton, a narrow upward trend compared to the same period last week, with an overall increase of 3.41%. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 7066.67 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 7000 yuan/ton and a stable operating rate. Downstream demand procurement is the main focus, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On August 13th, the chemical index stood at 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range leaning towards strong operation.

Product name: Sulfuric acid

Latest price (August 14th): 210.00 yuan/ton

On August 14th, the domestic sulfuric acid market price significantly increased, with a price increase of 32 yuan/ton compared to August 11th, an increase of 17.98%, and a year-on-year decrease of 53.98%. The upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with increased cost support. The downstream ammonium sulfate market has slightly increased, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Duo Zhong Li is good, and the product trend is upward.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 230 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 11th, the price of DOP was 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.19% compared to the price of 11133.33 yuan/ton on August 4th. Costs have risen, supply has contracted, and demand is cold. This week, the price of plasticizer DOP has significantly increased.

Plasticizer companies are experiencing profit losses, plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low loads, and multiple plasticizer companies are experiencing equipment shutdowns. The operating rate of plasticizers has decreased to around 40%, leading to a contraction in plasticizer supply. Downstream demand is cold, high prices of plasticizers are difficult to pass down, and the accumulation of plasticizers has increased.

The price of isooctanol has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 11th was 11240 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.23% compared to the price of 10783.33 yuan/ton on August 4th. Planned and unexpected shutdowns of domestic octanol plants have led to a tightening of the supply of isooctanol and a continuous increase in octanol prices. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has surged, and the cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment has become cautious. In mid to late August, two sets of isooctanol units in Shandong and Jiangsu are planned to restart, and the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose. However, there is insufficient support for the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of August 11th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8750 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.34% compared to the price of 8550 yuan/ton on August 4th. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, and the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride is maintained at over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is normal. Recently, there has been an increase in export orders for phthalic anhydride, and the supply of goods has been slightly tight. In addition, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has risen, leading to a significant increase in the price of ortho benzene and ortho phthalic anhydride. The transaction situation of phthalic anhydride is good, and the market situation is rising. The cost of raw materials has increased, and the driving force for the cost increase of plasticizers has increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the expected recovery of isooctanol production is insufficient support for the sustained rise in isooctanol prices. The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and increases, and the support for the increase in DOP cost of plasticizer products still exists; Downstream PVC procurement enthusiasm is cold, and demand for plasticizers is weakening; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizers is shrinking. In the future, there is insufficient support for rising costs, the contraction of plasticizer supply and weak demand, and insufficient support for the rise of plasticizer DOP. It is expected that plasticizer DOP prices will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 10, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8433 yuan/ton. Compared with August 6 (reference price of propylene glycol 7700), the price increased by 733 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.52%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week (8.6-8.10), the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole has seen a broad upward trend. During the week, the supply side of propylene glycol in China was tight, and the sales of propylene glycol manufacturers remained stable. New orders were traded well on the market, and the cash flow of propylene glycol was tight. The operators had a good mentality. The upward trend in the raw material propylene oxide market also provides support for the cost of propylene glycol. Therefore, with the support of supply and demand as well as cost, the center of gravity of the propylene glycol market continues to rise, with a price increase of around 500 to 800 yuan/ton during the week. As of August 10th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is referenced around 8300 to 8500 yuan/ton, while the higher end price is referenced around 8800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is good, and effective support on the market is still available. It is expected that in the short term, the overall high and stable operation of the domestic propylene glycol market will be the main trend, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China this week is 2950.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 25.00% year-on-year. On August 6th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 77.29, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.58% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 39.29% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly fluctuated and increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1100 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable, with average cost support. This week, the PVC market price increased from 5992.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6058.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.10%. Weekend prices fell by 9.16% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate or rise in the aftermarket

In mid July, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and rise in a narrow range in mid July, with consolidation being the main focus.

This week (7.28-8.4), the market of Polybutadiene continued to rise slightly. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business agency, as of August 4, the price of Polybutadiene in East China was 11120 yuan/ton, up 2.68% from 10830 yuan/ton last Friday. The price of raw butadiene continued to rise slightly, and the cost support of Polybutadiene continued to strengthen; This week, the supply price of Polybutadiene was raised by 200 yuan/ton, and the offer of merchants kept up. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of August 4, the ex factory price of Polybutadiene of Sinopec North China Sales Company was 11100 yuan/ton.

This week (7.28-8.4), the domestic Polybutadiene plant started steadily, Daqing Petrochemical Polybutadiene restarted at the end of July, and Zhejiang Petrochemical cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plant plans to restart in the near future. The supply pressure of Polybutadiene increased slightly compared with the previous period.

The price of raw butadiene continued to rebound this week (7.28-8.4), and the cost focus of Polybutadiene continued to rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of butadiene was 7376 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.43% from last Friday’s 7201 yuan/ton.

The natural rubber market fluctuated slightly this week (7.28-8.4). According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 4th, the price of natural rubber was 11944 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.13% from last Friday’s 11960 yuan/ton, and the highest point in the cycle was 12080 yuan/ton.

Recently, the tire operating rate has fluctuated slightly, with half steel tire operating slightly lower than the previous period, and all steel tire operating slightly fluctuating compared to the previous period. The demand for rubber rigid support is stable. It is understood that as of early August 2023, the operating load of rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 5.8% for all steel tires and around 7.2% for half steel tires.

Future market forecast: analysts from the business community believe that the high raw material price of Polybutadiene is supported by its cost. Polybutadiene started steadily this week, but there are plans to restart devices later, and the supply of Polybutadiene is basically loose; The downstream semi steel tire is slightly lower, and the support for Polybutadiene rubber is slightly weaker; To sum up, it is expected that in the short term, Polybutadiene will fluctuate in a narrow range after the rise of the cost supported price, and it may fall slightly in the middle of the month. If the downstream construction starts after the rainy season, if it actively improves, the price of Polybutadiene will continue to rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market was relatively strong in July, with various wire drawing brands fluctuating and rising. As of July 31st, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7400 yuan/ton, with a+3.29% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, some domestic units in the propylene sector underwent maintenance at the beginning of this month. Supply in the Shandong region was tightened, and the quotation was actively pushed up. In the latter half of the year, the positive impact of the international crude oil rise was evident, boosting market sentiment such as propylene. Downstream investors actively entered the market, and the trading atmosphere on the market improved. At the end of the month, upstream propane prices in PDH were also relatively strong, while coal prices remained stable. The overall strength of polypropylene upstream is relatively strong, which provides reasonable support for the cost side.

The raw materials in all directions have steadily increased, and the cost support for PP is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained at around 74% this month, with a relatively flat position compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods was stable, and the on-site supply of goods was sufficient. In terms of demand, it tends to be average, with the main downstream plastic weaving operating at 40% to 50%. In terms of film materials and injection molding, the operating rate of enterprises remains at the previous level, and the overall position is relatively good. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is average, and procurement mainly maintains production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 31st, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7387 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+3.50% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -10.21% compared to the same period last year. This month, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, maintained a low horizontal load, and the overall operating rate level was adjusted narrowly at around 30%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is weak, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is average. Enterprises have average efforts in replenishing fiber PP. The price increase is due to the gradual depletion of polypropylene inventory and the strengthening of costs, and it is expected that fiber materials may continue to operate in a strong manner in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, this month’s melt blown PP market fluctuated and rose. As of July 31st, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is about 8050 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+2.22%, and there is a year-on-year decrease of 14.36%. At present, there is little domestic news on health events, and local social news is powerless to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. There is also no significant boost in overseas demand. Affected by the cost side and destocking, melt blown material enterprises have increased their factory prices. It is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a volatile consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has risen in July. The market for raw materials such as propylene and crude oil has risen, and the support for the market from the cost side has increased. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is average, and the demand for goods tends to maintain production, while the demand release is flat. Market orders are at a low season level. However, overall inventory is gradually decreasing, and it is expected that the PP market may continue to lean towards consolidation and operation.

Price trend

After the domestic ABS market rose in July, it fell back, and spot prices fluctuated. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the average price of ABS sample products was 10500 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.24% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: In July, the load of the ABS industry showed an increasing trend. In the early stage, there were more enterprise maintenance and independent load reduction. The current operating rate has increased by nearly 10% to over 87% compared to the beginning of the month, and the on-site supply of goods has increased. At the end of the month, there was a significant increase in inventory, with an overall increase of over 150000 tons. The supply side’s support for the spot market is gradually weakening.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials this month has remained stable with two increases. Among them, the raw material acrylonitrile market fluctuated slightly and remained stable. In the first half of the month, the raw material price was relatively strong and there was an increase in price. The negative outlook gradually dissipated, and the support for acrylonitrile leveled off; Downstream construction fluctuates at low levels, resulting in poor demand for acrylonitrile; At the end of the month, the supply side slightly declined, providing slight support for the acrylonitrile market. The price of acrylonitrile rose in the first half of the month, but the rise in the second half was sluggish and slightly declined.

The price of butadiene in China has gradually increased this month. At the beginning of the month, there was a strong increase in suppliers, which boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, but downstream companies resisted high prices. In the middle of the month, there was a concentration of parking news, and the transaction price of the external market was relatively high, which boosted the sentiment of domestic merchants; The expectation of supply side at the end of the month has led to cautious downstream inquiries, and the increase in the butadiene market has weakened.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the styrene market price fluctuated and increased in July. The early decline in styrene market was the main trend, but the price rebounded this month with a significant increase. The main reason for the increase is that the international crude oil price fluctuates higher, driving the pure benzene market to continue to rise, with strong cost support, small increase in downstream construction, increased spot transactions, more favorable styrene, and rising market.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal appliance industry, have shown a decline in stocking enthusiasm. Due to factors such as season and power restrictions, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

This month, the three upstream materials of ABS saw mixed ups and downs, providing reasonable support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant gradually rose within the month of construction, and market inventory increased simultaneously. The demand side support has fallen, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern has been maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to be weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market has been relatively strong recently, with overall increases in various wire drawing brands. As of July 28th, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7400 yuan/ton, with a+3.29% increase or decrease compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: On the upstream side, international crude oil rose this week, while driving up the trend of the propylene market. In addition, with a wide reduction in propylene prices in the early stage, the current downstream purchasing willingness is still acceptable, and the market has been repaired. At the same time, upstream propane prices in PDH are also relatively strong, while coal prices remain stable. The overall strength of polypropylene upstream is relatively strong, which provides reasonable support for the cost side.

The raw materials in all directions have steadily increased, and the cost support for PP is still acceptable. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load remained above 74% this week, with a relatively flat position compared to the previous period. The overall supply of goods was stable, and the on-site supply of goods was sufficient. In terms of demand, it tends to be average, with the main downstream plastic weaving operating at 40% to 50%. In terms of film materials and injection molding, the operating rate of enterprises remains at the previous level, and the overall position is relatively good. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is average, and procurement mainly maintains production.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 28th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has increased. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 7387 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of 3.50% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of -9.36% compared to the same period last year. This week, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, maintained a low level of load, with an overall operating rate of around 30%. The demand for fiber materials in the market is weak, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is average. Enterprises have average efforts in replenishing fiber PP. The price increase is due to the overall inventory reduction of polypropylene and the positive impact of stronger costs. It is expected that fiber materials may continue to operate in a stronger direction in the short term.

In terms of melt blown materials, this week’s melt blown PP market saw a narrow rise. As of July 28th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society is around 8050 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+2.22%, and there is a 14.06% decrease compared to the same period last year. At present, there is little domestic news on health events, and local social news is powerless to drive the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials. There is also no significant boost in overseas demand. Affected by the cost side and destocking, melt blown material enterprises have increased their factory prices. It is expected that the melt blown material market may maintain a volatile consolidation trend.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has been rising recently. The market for raw materials such as propylene and crude oil has risen, and the support for the market from the cost side has increased. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is average, and the demand for goods tends to maintain production, while the demand release is flat. Market orders