1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of soda ash is relatively strong. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 2950 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average market price was 3000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.69% and a decrease of 13.21% compared to the same period last year. On September 7th, the light soda ash commodity index was 152.31, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 19.46% from the cycle’s highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 141.19% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of soda ash has remained strong this week. In the East China region, the operation of soda ash is relatively strong, and the mainstream market quotation for light soda ash is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton. In the East China region, the operation of soda ash is relatively strong, and the mainstream market quotation for light soda ash is around 2900-3100 yuan/ton. Data shows that the operating rate of soda ash this week is around 78%.

In terms of demand: According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of glass has slightly decreased, with an average market price of 23.69 yuan/square meter on Monday and 23.57 yuan/square meter on weekends. The price has decreased by 0.51%, with a year-on-year increase of 19.54%. The price of glass has been slightly adjusted, but there is still a demand for replenishment of soda ash.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 35th week of 2023 (8.28-9.1), there were a total of 5 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list, 0 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities that have increased include: baking soda (10.13%), light soda ash (7.33%), and flake soda (2.90%); This week’s average rise and fall was 3.24%.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of soda ash is strong and operating. The supply of soda ash is tight, and there is still a demand for replenishment in the downstream of soda ash in the near future. Purchasing is relatively active, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be strong in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of August 31, the average price of domestic transparent grade premium PMMA was 14625.00 yuan/ton. In July, the PMMA price remained stable and maintained around 14600 yuan/ton, with downstream procurement being the main demand and weak willingness to stock up. The overall negotiation atmosphere was flat.

In August, the domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA operated smoothly, while prices remained unchanged compared to the same period last month. The atmosphere of fashion negotiations was cold and the downstream demand was average, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is stable. The overall market supply and demand is balanced, with manufacturers offering discounts and taking orders. Downstream procurement is just in need.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On August 30th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 679 points, an increase of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.94% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 28.60% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fluctuated and increased in August. The average price of the mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol in China increased from 9350.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9733.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.10%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 2.34% year-on-year. On August 30th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 46.91, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 54.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 8.97% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream distributors of neopentyl glycol have slightly increased this month.

From a cost perspective, the market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly increased in August. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 7900.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8083.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.32%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 12.27% year-on-year. The factory price of formaldehyde in China slightly increased in August. The factory price of formaldehyde has increased from 1140.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1216.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.73%. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, and due to the impact of supply and demand, the support for the price of neopentyl glycol has increased.

Looking at the future market, the overall trend of new pentanediol in mid to early September may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream market for isobutyraldehyde and formaldehyde has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

In August 2023, the domestic liquid ammonia market emerged from a trend of pre emptive suppression, with a decline at the beginning of the month, stable operation in the middle of the month, and a strong rise in the market in the latter half of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the monthly increase in liquid ammonia is 1.89%.

At the beginning of the month, liquid ammonia reversed the previous month’s upward trend and briefly declined due to increased supply pressure. The main reason is that the supply in Shandong region has increased, and some of the faulty enterprises have resumed operation. The changes in construction are mainly concentrated in Shandong and Hubei, affecting the northern and central plains regions. Supply expectations are expected to perform leniently. The large number of imported goods arriving at the port has had an impact on the domestic liquid ammonia market. Large factories in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and other regions have repeatedly lowered factory prices this week, with a cumulative reduction of over 200 yuan/ton in the first week of August.

In the middle of the month, the market gradually stopped falling and stabilized, mainly due to the easing of supply pressure. On the one hand, the construction of the Northern Main Production Area Alliance and Mingshengda devices has been affected, resulting in a decline in production. And the postponement of resumption of production in Mingshui Dahua. The performance of the superimposed market demand is acceptable, with an increase in new orders and an improvement in supply and demand, enabling the ammonia market to stabilize and rebound.

In late October, liquid ammonia experienced another rise, mainly due to the tight supply performance in the main production areas in the north, which was supported by tight supply. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and sudden production restrictions in regions such as Shanxi have led to a short-term decline in enterprise operating rates and tight supply. There is a widespread phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. As of the week ending August 27th, the manufacturer’s quotation has been raised multiple times, with a cumulative increase of over 200 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer naturally rose. The market did not continue until the end of the month. In the week of August 31st, liquid ammonia prices gradually stabilized and the market returned to rationality.

Future Market Forecast

In terms of supply, there are multiple units in Hebei, Henan, Yunnan, and the two lakes regions that are expected to recover, and the supply pressure in the later stage cannot be underestimated. Currently, some units in Shandong have been reduced in quantity to hedge against supply pressure. Further device reduction will not be ruled out in the later stage.

On the demand side, agricultural demand is mainly light, while some compound fertilizers remain in high demand. Especially in the industrial sector, the performance is poor, and the operating rate of enterprises is still showing a downward trend due to the decline in profits. There will also be some pressure on later demand.

Overall, liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society believe that the supply and demand structure of liquid ammonia may reverse, and a pattern of oversupply may form. Therefore, it is expected that there will be some room for a pullback in liquid ammonia next month.

In late August (8.21-8.30), the acrylonitrile market saw a significant increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 30th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 8800 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.86% from 8321 yuan/ton on August 21st. At present, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market is between 8700 to 8900 yuan/ton. The slight increase in raw material prices still provides cost support for acrylonitrile; Downstream construction has increased compared to the early stage, with a slight increase in demand for acrylonitrile; The operation of the acrylonitrile unit has been basically stable, and the price of acrylonitrile has increased.

Recently (8.21-8.30), the domestic production of acrylonitrile has remained stable, with a production rate of around 7.70%.

Recently (August 21- August 30), the raw material propylene market has slightly increased, and the cost of acrylonitrile continues to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 30th, the domestic propylene price was 6938 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.28% from 6850 yuan/ton on August 21st.

It is understood that as of the end of August, downstream ABS prices have risen and the start of construction has increased to around 90%, indicating an increase in demand for acrylonitrile compared to the previous period; Except for Jinpu Yingsa’s parking and maintenance, the overall industry’s production of nitrile rubber has remained stable, while the production of acrylic fiber has remained low. Overall, the downstream main industry of acrylonitrile has seen a slight increase in construction, with demand facing stronger support from acrylonitrile.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society Acrylonitrile Analysts believe that the current supply side is basically stable, the demand side has improved to some extent, and combined with high raw material prices, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market price will maintain a strong and exploratory upward trend in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8200 yuan/ton on August 1, and the average price on August 28 was 8428 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.79% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on August 1st was 8937 yuan/ton, and the average price on August 28th was 9550 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 6.85%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9275 yuan/ton on August 1st, and the average price on August 28th was 9212 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.67%.

The price of polyethylene mainly increased in August, mainly starting from the second half of the month, with LDPE prices experiencing a significant increase. The maintenance of high cost crude oil has a certain supporting effect on the price of polyethylene. The supply of some polyethylene grades is tight, and the prices quoted by production enterprises and traders have increased. The seasonal recovery of orders from agricultural film enterprises has continued, and downstream bargain-hunting and restocking behavior has increased compared to the previous period. The expected improvement in market demand has boosted market sentiment. In terms of HDPE, prices in August mainly fluctuated and fell, with an increase towards the end of the month. The peak maintenance season for domestic polyethylene plants is coming to an end, and the plants are gradually restarting. In addition, there are many HDPE plants planned to start up, but due to some high prices, downstream resistance to high prices is strong, and market transactions are limited, resulting in a decrease in HDPE prices.

The polyethylene futures market in August was mainly fluctuating and rising, which had a certain boosting effect on the spot market.

The polyethylene maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and the operation of the equipment has increased, with an expected increase in supply side; The peak season of demand for greenhouse film and plastic film is approaching, with an expected increase in demand, boosting market sentiment. It is expected that polyethylene may fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited.

This week, the lead market (8.18-8.25) rose first and then fell. The average price in the domestic market was 15940 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 16175 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.47%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 7 consecutive weeks.

The futures market rose first and then fell, with a narrow upward trend from Monday to Thursday, and a high decline on Friday. The spot market closely followed the trend of Shanghai Lead, rising first and then falling. Fundamentally, there has been little change in the supply and demand of primary lead in the near future, with some areas experiencing slight tension due to maintenance, weather, and other factors. The recent circulation of waste batteries in the field of recycled lead is still poor, with a tight supply of raw materials and significant cost pressure on recycled lead. The overall price is running at a high level due to supply constraints. In terms of demand, there is currently little change in the operating rate of battery companies. Due to the upward impact of raw material lead ingot prices, the current operating rate is relatively stable. Automotive batteries have slightly rebounded under the influence of gold, silver, and other electric vehicle batteries have not changed much. Downstream markets are generally wait-and-see as raw material prices rise, and under cost pressure, it is expected that the lead ingot market will continue to operate steadily in the near future.

On August 27th, the base metal index stood at 1213 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.94% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 19 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 34th week of 2023 (8.21-8.25), with silver (4.42%), dysprosium ferroalloy (3.46%), and magnesium (3.03%) ranking among the top three commodities. There is a total of one product that has decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-2.10%) being the product that experienced a decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 1.21%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8207 yuan/ton on August 17th, and the average price on August 24th was 8421 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 2.61%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on August 17th was 9075 yuan/ton, and the average price on August 17th was 9450 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.13% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9150 yuan/ton on August 17th, and the average price on August 24th was 9212 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.68%.

Polyethylene prices have mainly increased this week, with LDPE prices experiencing a significant increase. The maintenance of high cost crude oil has a certain supporting effect on the price of polyethylene. The supply of some polyethylene grades is tight, and the prices quoted by production enterprises and traders have increased. The seasonal recovery of orders from agricultural film enterprises has continued, and downstream bargain-hunting and restocking behavior has increased compared to the previous period. The expected improvement in market demand has boosted market sentiment.

The polyethylene futures market has been mainly fluctuating and rising in the past month, which has a certain boosting effect on the spot market.

The polyethylene maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and the operation of the equipment has increased, with an expected increase in supply side; The peak season of demand for greenhouse film and plastic film is approaching, with an expected increase in demand, boosting market sentiment. It is expected that polyethylene may fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited.

Domestic price trend of xylene:

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend has temporarily stabilized this week. As of the weekend, the domestic factory price of paraxylene was 9100 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 9100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.11%.

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70% and a relatively normal spot supply. This week’s crude oil price trend has declined, and PX’s external market has slightly declined. As of the 17th, the closing prices in the Asian region are 1006-1008 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1031-1033 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has not changed much. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the external price of PX has slightly decreased. The domestic xylene market price situation is temporarily stable.

This week, crude oil prices have slightly declined. As of the 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $80.39 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $84.12 per barrel. Crude oil has been declining for three consecutive trading days. Recently, due to weak economic data in China, coupled with unstable banking in Europe and America, concerns about global economic growth prospects have put pressure on crude oil, and crude oil prices have continued to decline. However, the decrease in crude oil supply from OPEC and Russia, as well as the improvement in energy demand, have supported oil prices. On Thursday, the crude oil market closed higher, and overall, the crude oil market price slightly decreased. As a result, the domestic xylene market trend has temporarily stabilized.

The downstream PTA market price has slightly declined this week, with an average PTA market price of around 5870 yuan/ton as of the 18th. The price has slightly declined by 0.71% this week. PTA supply has increased, with the PTA operating rate rising to around 83.5% this week. PTA factory inventory has slightly increased, and PTA market prices have slightly declined. Downstream polyester is mainly in need of restocking, and demand end textile enterprises have staged restocking actions. However, with the arrival of the high temperature season, textile and clothing consumption is in the off-season stage, with insufficient terminal orders. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving start-up rate is around 63%, and downstream PTA market prices are fluctuating and decreasing, while PX price trends are temporarily stable.

Business Society PX analyst Chen Ling believes that the current oil market is a long short game, with crude oil prices maintaining a high level in the short term. However, the downstream PTA market trend is fluctuating and declining, coupled with weak demand follow-up in the textile industry, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. Overall, it is expected that the price trend in the xylene market will be stable in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream prices of styrene in Shandong have been fluctuating and rising recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8533.33 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8708.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.05%. The price has decreased by 3.76% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly increased in the past two months, and the market has continued to fluctuate and increase this week. International oil prices have risen, cost support is good, styrene inventory is low, and the market is rising.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has decreased this week, with Sinopec’s pure benzene price at 7750 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized). The atmosphere in the East China market is poor, and buying and wait-and-see are obvious. In the end of the day, prices rebounded due to the stop of crude oil decline. The trading mentality in the Shandong market is weak, and the intention of refineries to reduce prices and promote sales is obvious, driving the focus of transactions to continue to shift downwards.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets for styrene fluctuated slightly. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9300 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price of PS was 9366 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.72% and a decrease of 13.67% compared to the same period last year. Crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, while styrene rose overnight, boosting the market atmosphere. Buying sentiment was cautious, and merchants had significant resistance to shipping. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 8750 and 9600 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 9300 and 9950 yuan/ton.

The EPS market has been stable this week, and according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ordinary materials this week is 9775.00 yuan/ton. The terminal profit is meager, there is a clear resistance to high market prices, and the follow-up of buying is limited. The overall transaction is weak, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market may mainly have a narrow and weak trend.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has risen, and the overall high level of upstream three materials in ABS has provided reasonable support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started relatively horizontally in the early stage, and market inventory has been partially digested. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a narrow consolidation market.

At present, the news shows that the crude oil market is improving and the cost support is good. The unexpected shutdown of the styrene plant will lead to a short-term reduction in domestic supply. Under the dual benefits, it is expected that the short-term styrene market will fluctuate and rise mainly.