1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 9180 yuan/ton, while the average price over the weekend was 9060 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 1.31%.

Figure: Comparison of Price Trends of 8-10 Acetone and Isopropanol

The market price of isopropanol fell this week. After the National Day holiday, the market situation gradually weakened and the overall trading sentiment was poor. The upstream acetone market saw a decline in the acetone market, with weak cost support. Downstream procurement is cautious, with on-demand orders being the main focus. Most businesses maintain a wait-and-see attitude, with fewer inquiries and more wait-and-see, resulting in slow shipments. As of now, the majority of quotations for isopropanol in the Shandong region are around 6200-6400 yuan/ton; The majority of prices for isopropanol in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 6600-6800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market price fluctuated and declined this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of acetone was 7720 yuan/ton, while on Friday, the average price was 7425 yuan/ton. The price was reduced by 3.82%. The acetone market has been operating weakly this week, with upstream going down. Traders are under pressure and eager to ship, while downstream market sentiment is sluggish, with few actual orders traded. From Monday to Thursday, the market continued to decline, with a slight rebound over the weekend and the overall decline being the main trend.

In terms of propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fell this week, with an average price of 7200.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 7038.25 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price was lowered by 2.26%. The propylene market has had poor trading this week. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has decreased, and the overall market is relatively light. It is expected that the market situation will be weak in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that upstream acetone prices have fluctuated and declined, while the propylene market prices have fallen, resulting in weak overall cost support. Downstream markets are not actively buying goods, and market transactions are more cautious and wait-and-see. It is expected that the isopropanol market will operate weakly in the short term.

The market for nitrile rubber increased significantly in September. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 28th, the price was 15900 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.57% from 14125 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In September, the prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile, the raw materials for nitrile rubber, significantly increased, and the cost center of nitrile rubber increased; Downstream inquiries for nitrile rubber remain on demand, and market transactions are average. In September, domestic nitrile units such as Jinpu and Taixiang underwent maintenance. The overall market supply pressure was not high, and some brand resources were tight, resulting in a firm increase in factory prices for enterprises. At the end of the month, some downstream factories were shut down for vacation, and transactions for nitrile rubber were light. Some merchants offered small discounts on shipments. As of September 28th, the mainstream market price of Lanhua Nitrile 3305 in East China was 14900~15100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Nandi Nitrile 1052 is 17500-17700 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported at 15900~16100 yuan/ton.

In September, the construction of domestic nitrile rubber plants slightly decreased.

In September, the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile significantly increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 28th, the price of butadiene was 8710 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.21% from 7626 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of September 28th, the price of acrylonitrile was 9825 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.71% from 9037 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In September, the downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries started construction steadily, and overall demand for procurement continued. The supply of some grades of nitrile rubber on site was tight, and the price of nitrile rubber remained high; As the end of the month approaches, downstream construction starts to decline, and market transactions are light, with some merchants slightly loosening their offers.

Future Market Forecast: Business Society Nitrile Analysts believe that the current supply of nitrile rubber is temporarily stable, but the Nandi Nitrile Plant is scheduled to undergo maintenance in October. The pressure on the supply side in the later stage is still relatively low, and the downstream just needs to support the transaction atmosphere. However, the high price of raw materials is supported, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol significantly increased in September. The average price of the mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol in China increased from 9733.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10450.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.36%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 3.81% year-on-year. On September 27th, the new pentanediol commodity index was 50.36, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 51.39% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 16.98% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream distributors of neopentyl glycol have slightly increased this month.

From a cost perspective, the market price of isobutyraldehyde increased significantly in September. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9000.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 9.31%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 45.95% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, and due to the impact of supply and demand, the support for the price of neopentyl glycol has increased.

Looking at the future market, the overall trend of neopentyl glycol in mid to early October may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the PP market rose first and then fell this week, with various wire drawing brands operating in a volatile manner. As of September 22nd, the mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 8035.71 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+3.97% compared to the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: Recently, in terms of PP raw materials, international crude oil fell on Thursday night due to the Federal Reserve’s suspension of interest rate hikes. At the same time, it negatively affects the propylene market and suppresses market confidence. However, there is not much pressure on on-site inventory, and there is a strong willingness for upstream pricing, with a focus on stalemate operations. In terms of PDH, the supply of propane as a raw material has increased, but it has also weakened simultaneously. Only methanol showed an upward trend. Overall, the cost side support of polypropylene is loose.

The overall trend of raw materials in all directions is weak, and the cost side’s support for PP has weakened. In terms of industry load, the overall industry load has been around 79% recently, with a narrow upward adjustment compared to the previous period. Although there are new devices put into operation, it will take some time for stable shipments, so the overall supply of goods is stable, and the on-site supply pressure is temporarily stable. In terms of demand, it has leveled off compared to the early stage, with downstream plastic weaving operating at a horizontal level of over 40%. In terms of film materials and injection molding, the operating rate of enterprises has remained around 60%, and the overall position has remained in the early stage. The stocking situation of terminal enterprises is based on demand procurement. After the PP price rises, there is a certain resistance to high price sources. At the same time, as the Double Festival approaches, the stocking demand is about to run out, and the drawing material first rises and then falls.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 22, the spot price of domestic fiber PP also rose first and then fell. The mainstream quoted price of domestic producers and traders for Z30S (fiber) is around 8075 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+5.38% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 3.10% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, have seen a low load increase, with an overall operating rate of around 37%. The demand for fiber materials in the market has increased compared to the previous period, and the digestion speed of non-woven end products is still acceptable. The enterprise’s efforts to replenish fiber PP have increased the industry load. It is expected that in the short term, fiber materials may enter a weak finishing stage due to the impact of weaker costs.

In terms of melt blown materials, the recent melt blown PP market has been relatively strong. As of September 22nd, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society is around 8200 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is+1.23%, and there is a decrease of 10.22% compared to the same period last year. At present, the domestic and international news of the health incident has basically subsided, and the consumption of medical meltblown fabric materials is weak. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. The price of meltblown non-woven fabrics has remained stable and fluctuated slightly, and it is expected that the market for meltblown materials may maintain the consolidation market.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market has been volatile this week. The overall trend of upstream raw materials has shifted from strong to weak, with loose support from the cost side to the market. Terminal enterprises continue to operate at the previous level, with a bias towards maintaining production and a certain resistance towards high priced goods. The current holiday is approaching, and the benefits of pre holiday stocking are gradually running out. It is expected that in the short term, the PP market may be hindered by the cost side drag and the upward trend will be hindered.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the recent trend of TDI prices in East China has been mainly stable. On September 18, the average market price in East China was 18033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.19% compared to the price of 18000.00 yuan/ton on September 11, and a decrease of 5.09% compared to the previous month.

The domestic TDI market is stagnant and operating, with slight price fluctuations. Last week, the market learned that Shanghai Kesichuang was closed and the execution price was raised. At the same time, other factories had limited supply, the market supply was tight, and suppliers had a clear attitude of supporting the market. Traders followed the market, and the offer was raised. However, downstream demand was average, the stocking atmosphere was poor, market trading was light, and the TDI price increase was limited. The operators had a wait-and-see mentality.

The upstream toluene market continues to rise. On September 18th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 8380 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.70% compared to the price of 8240 yuan/ton on September 11th. The international crude oil price has risen, and the cost of toluene has been positive. At the same time, with the support of export orders, the price of toluene has increased simultaneously. However, domestic downstream demand is weak, and there is resistance towards high priced toluene, which to some extent limits the increase in toluene. The price of toluene has narrowed down.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from the business agency believe that the supplier’s stock is tight, the factory has a strong mentality of price competition, and downstream demand follow-up is insufficient. Coupled with resistance towards high prices, the enthusiasm for entering the market is average, and there is a game between supply and demand on the market, with insufficient positive support. As the National Day holiday approaches, considering downstream reserve demand, it is expected that the TDI market in the future will continue to rise. Please pay attention to the release of supplier information.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the recent price trend of the domestic rare earth market has been mainly volatile, while the price trend of the domestic light rare earth market has remained stable. The rare earth index on September 17 was 516 points, a decrease of 48.76% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 90.41% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price trend of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy has temporarily stabilized, while the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide has slightly decreased. As of the 18th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 645000 yuan/ton, and the price remained unchanged this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 525000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.41% this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 537500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of neodymium metal is 665000 yuan/ton, and it has remained stable this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 670000 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 527500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week.

In early September, the trend of the light rare earth market rose. Due to the impact of regional rainfall weather, some rare earth mining enterprises were restricted in production, and some rare earth manufacturers took the initiative to reduce production, which further slowed down the growth rate of spot inventory in the market. Separation plants and metal plants in Sichuan region will have varying degrees of production reduction and shutdown behavior, and the price trend of light rare earth market will rise due to supply reduction. However, in the middle of the year, downstream resistance has intensified, and the procurement of inquiries has come to an end. In addition, downstream magnetic material enterprises have reduced new orders, intensifying upstream and downstream competition, and the domestic light rare earth market price trend is mainly stable.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 843000 and 846000 units respectively in August, with a month on month increase of 4.7% and 8.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 22% and 27%, respectively; From January to August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.434 million and 5.374 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 36.9% and 39.2%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The light rare earth market still has support.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export of rare earth and its products reached 9618 tons in August, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%; From January to August, the cumulative export of rare earth and its products reached 79083 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market. The price trend of the light rare earth market was fluctuating.

Future Forecast: With the recovery of rare earth raw material supply in the later stage, the ordering and procurement of magnetic material enterprises will come to an end. It is expected that in the short term, the pressure on rare earth market prices will increase, and the rare earth market will remain mainly volatile; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of PS at the beginning of this week was 9566 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS at the weekend was 9700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.39% and a decrease of 7.32% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream brand quotation without tax reference: Zhenjiang Qimei PG33 quoted 9900 yuan/ton, Ningbo Taihua 535N quoted 10000 yuan/ton, Shanghai SECCO 123P quoted 9650 yuan/ton, Thai Petrochemical 150 quoted 9450-9500 yuan/ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 quoted 9450-9500 yuan/ton, and Hong Kong Petrochemical 1841H had a shortage of goods.

The domestic PS market is on the rise, with an increase of 20-200 yuan/ton. Crude oil is on the rise, and the impact of styrene is on the rise. Coupled with the wait-and-see atmosphere in the theater, terminal follow-up is weak, merchants operate cautiously, and cost support is strong. The industry’s production reduction has led to a tight supply of goods in the market, and merchants are attempting to increase their light warehouses.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The cost of PS is supported, and transactions are improving. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic PS (polystyrene) market price will mainly fluctuate and tend to be strong.

Last week, domestic liquid ammonia continued to rise, with manufacturers’ quotations rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the main production area in Shandong increased by 5.50% this week. As of September 11, the trading center has moved up the range of 200 to 300 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the week. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 3700-3850 yuan/ton.

From the supply side perspective, the increase in liquid ammonia is mainly due to a shortage of supply in the main production areas in the north, resulting in a decrease in factory operating rates and a decline in production, which provides a positive impact on the market. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and the impact of production restrictions in Shanxi and other regions has not faded, causing short-term low operating rates and tight supply for enterprises. There is a widespread phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. The manufacturer’s quotation has been raised multiple times, and as of September 11th, the cumulative increase has reached over 400 yuan/ton. The dealer’s offer naturally rose.

On the demand side, downstream urea, compound fertilizers and other fields just need stable support, coupled with an increase in fertilizer usage in autumn, the market releases a certain amount of growth. Overall, agricultural demand follows up in a timely manner, while industrial demand is mainly supported by immediate demand. However, there are not many new export orders, which may become a limiting factor for the rise of liquid ammonia in the later stage.

Prediction: Liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society believe that the tight supply of liquid ammonia is difficult to improve in the short term, especially the imbalance between regions that may lead to a widening price difference between regions. Prices in the northern region will still remain high, and there may still be room for upward movement in liquid ammonia prices even with little change in demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of toluene has slightly increased recently (9.1-9.11). On September 11th, the benchmark price of toluene was 8240 yuan/ton, while on September 1st, the benchmark price was 8090 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.85%.

Strong cost support for toluene due to significant increase in crude oil prices

Since September, crude oil futures have risen significantly. As of the 11th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures 10 contract was at $87.29 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures settled at $90.64 per barrel for the 11 contract. OPEC+, an oil producing country, is rumored to have extended production cuts. The market expects an additional 1 million barrels of production reduction from Saudi Arabia to continue until December, while Russia’s crude oil production reduction will continue until December. Supply tightening is expected to continue to ferment and boost the oil market; In addition, the weakening of the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil market valuations and the potential impact of storms in the US Gulf on energy supply, which is a positive factor supporting international oil prices.

Rising prices of refined oil and high demand for refinery operations support toluene

Recently, some merchants have a decent restocking mentality, and their main outsourcing has increased, while refinery inventory has remained low; In addition, supported by the upcoming Double Festival in the later stage, some manufacturers may stock up in advance. The operating rate of domestic main refineries remains at a high level, and the supply side is relatively loose, which to some extent suppresses gasoline prices. The combination of long and short factors has led to high and fluctuating gasoline market conditions. Recently, the price trend of the diesel market has been relatively strong. On the one hand, crude oil cost support still exists, which is beneficial for the domestic refined oil market. On the other hand, the third batch of export quotas for Chinese refined oil has finally been implemented, further loosening the control of domestic refined oil exports. Under the stimulation of high profits, the enthusiasm of finished oil export units has increased, especially in the case of diesel or additional demand.

Downstream PX starts construction, 7 pairs of toluene have rigid support needed

The operating rate of PX in China is over 70%, but during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, spot supply is relatively normal. Driven by the rise in crude oil, PX’s external price trend has increased. As of the 7th, the closing prices in Asia are 1081-1083 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1106-1108 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and due to the rise in crude oil prices, the domestic xylene market price has risen.

Future forecast: International crude oil prices are operating at high levels, with support for the cost of toluene; Downstream products such as toluene and PX have a strong demand for support for toluene, but as the price of toluene rises, downstream gas purchases are slightly insufficient. In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will consolidate at a high level in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China is temporarily stable. As of the 11th, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10100 yuan/ton, which is the same as the 4th price of 10100 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 1.0%.

Supply side: Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid has been temporarily stable. The mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid discussed in various regions of China is 10000-10400 yuan/ton. Recently, some devices have been shut down and waiting for market, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is average, with anhydrous hydrofluoric acid starting at around 60%. Some enterprises have accumulated inventory, and due to strong support from raw materials, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable.

Cost side: The price trend of domestic fluorite has increased. As of the 11th, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3193.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to the 4th price of 3056.25 yuan/ton. The operating rate of fluorite enterprises remains low, and upstream mining is still tense. Backward mines will continue to be phased out, new mines will be added, and mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are operating insufficient, resulting in environmental protection The requirements of emergency management departments and others are becoming stricter, and the difficulty of starting mining has increased. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the fluorite market is unlikely to improve in the short term, and the focus of spot negotiations is strengthening. Downstream enterprises follow up on demand, and cost support has maintained high prices in the hydrofluoric acid market.

Recently, the sulfuric acid market has maintained a high level. As of the 11th, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 306 yuan/ton, slightly 1.92% lower than the 4th price of 312 yuan/ton. Although the sulfuric acid market price has slightly declined, overall it is at a high level. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The high price of sulfuric acid has boosted the domestic hydrofluoric acid market, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable.

On the demand side: The market trend of downstream refrigerant products at the terminal has increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has not changed much. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and downstream procurement needs to follow up. Some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance, and the monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small. The price trend of R22 has increased. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price of R134a is rising. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have a rising price trend, and the current cost is firm. Enterprises’ reluctance to sell has escalated. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25000 to 25500 yuan/ton. Supply and cost factors have driven refrigerant companies to have a clear intention to sell, and the refrigerant market trend has increased, To some extent, it is beneficial for the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid.

Future forecast: The market trend of upstream raw material fluorite has slightly increased, fluorite enterprises have a strong intention to increase prices, and the price of sulfuric acid has a downward trend; The market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is rising, but refrigerant production remains at a low level. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Long Short Interleaved Business Society, believes that the stable price trend of the hydrofluoric acid market is the main trend in the short term.