Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price trend of para xylene in February has declined. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 1.18%.

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. However, some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. In February, the international crude oil price range fluctuated, and PX external prices did not change much. As of the 28th, the closing prices in Asia were 1013-1015 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1038-1040 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal, and the domestic xylene market prices have slightly decreased.

In February, the international crude oil price range fluctuated, and overall, crude oil prices slightly increased. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $78.54 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.15 per barrel. The trend of the crude oil market in February slightly increased. On the one hand, geopolitical risk factors have become the main driving force behind the rise of crude oil, and the geopolitical situation has heated up, further pushing up the risk premium of crude oil. On the other hand, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries provides strong support for international oil prices. However, the significant increase in US crude oil inventories has limited the increase in crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices in February was not significant, and the decline in domestic xylene market prices was limited.

The domestic PTA spot market has slightly declined, with an average price of 5951 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the end of the month, a decrease of 0.72% from the price of 5994 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. From the recent changes in PTA’s own equipment, the industry’s operating rate remains around 82.5%, but there is still pressure from sufficient supply of goods. Downstream polyester production load is 80%, and the polyester filament market is cautious and cautious, with terminal orders not yet initiated. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving continues to be at a low level of around 20%, and downstream demand for terminals has not improved. As a result, the PX market trend has declined.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that there is not much change in the domestic PX supply. The upstream crude oil market is a long short game, and overall, crude oil prices have slightly increased. The downstream PTA plant operation has not changed much, but with the gradual restart of the textile industry, the downstream polyester operation load has increased, and end demand continues to start. It is expected that the market price of xylene will rise in the later stage.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic vitamin market maintained a strong trend in February, but the momentum was insufficient, and the continued upward momentum was limited.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin C increased in February, with a price of 21 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 21.67 yuan/kg on the 29th, with a monthly increase of 3.19%. The vitamin C market is supported by the export market, with upstream prices rising while downstream acceptance is still acceptable, with significant resistance to further increases.

The price of vitamin A continued to rise in February, with an average price of 77 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 81 yuan/kg at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 5.04%. The current mainstream market quotation is around 82-85 yuan/kg, and the European market quotation is 19-20.5 euros/kg. The price of vitamin A in Europe has stabilized after rising, with all the positive news coming out. On exchange inquiries are active, with relatively few transactions, and downstream acceptance is still acceptable. In terms of production, some factories have parked but not opened, resulting in a favorable supply side.

In February, the price of vitamin E increased, with the mainstream market price around 65-68 yuan/kg. The European market quotation is 6.8-7.2 euros per kilogram. Recently, there have been many maintenance plans in China, with a favorable supply side and a strong willingness to raise prices upstream, which has provided some support for price increases.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believe that the current positive news in the vitamin market is exhausted, and there is insufficient upward momentum. The market lacks effective positive support, and we will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and increased in February. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.53%, with a year-on-year increase of 18% at the end of the month. On February 28th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 44.92, an increase of 0.33 points from yesterday, a decrease of 57.45% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 49.14% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde saw a slight increase in prices in February, and their inventory levels were average. The factory price of Lihua Yiisobutyraldehyde at the end of the month is 8750 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; The market price of isobutyraldehyde in Luxi at the end of the month was 8500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 500 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; The end of month factory price of Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde is 9300 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 500 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.

Increased upstream support and better downstream demand

From a cost perspective, the propylene market rose first and then fell in February, with an overall slight increase. At the beginning of the month, the price of propylene fell to a low point, and downstream investors entered the market on dips, resulting in an increase in trading volume and a wave of increase in propylene prices. After the holiday, downstream demand fell short of expectations and some inventory was mainly consumed. Upstream goods flow is not smooth, and prices are under pressure and declining. At the end of the month, due to the increase in prices of some downstream products and propylene, profits rebounded, driving downstream active entry into the market and slightly increasing propylene prices.

From the demand side, the downstream market for new pentanediol saw a slight increase in February. The market price of neopentyl glycol has increased from 10200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.70%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 5.06% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early March, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isobutyraldehyde. The upstream propylene market is showing an upward trend, with increased cost support. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the product trend is on the rise. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

In February 2024, the domestic liquid ammonia market emerged from a rebound after a decline, with a decline at the beginning of the month, stable operation in mid month, and a rebound in the market after the holiday in late October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded a decline in February, with a decline of 8.55%.

At the beginning of the month, liquid ammonia continued its volatile downward trend in January. The main reason is that the supply in Shandong region has increased, and some of the faulty enterprises have resumed operation. The changes in production are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, and the two lakes, affecting the northern and central plains regions. The expected supply performance is loose. The influx of a large number of imported goods into the port has had an impact on the domestic liquid ammonia market. Shandong has repeatedly lowered factory prices in collaboration with large factories in Hebei, Hubei and other regions in the early days, with a cumulative reduction of over 500 yuan/ton in the first week of February.

In the middle of the month, the market gradually stopped falling and stabilized, mainly due to the easing of supply pressure. On the one hand, some devices in the main production areas of the north have been affected in terms of operation, and under the influence of environmental protection, the operating rate has been affected, leading to a decline in production. And there are devices in the Central Plains region that delay resuming production. The performance of the market demand is still good, with an increase in new orders and improved supply and demand, which has stabilized the ammonia market. However, as the Chinese New Year approaches and trading is light, the ammonia market has not rebounded.

In the latter half of the year, liquid ammonia experienced a rebound, mainly due to the tight supply performance in the northern main production areas, which was supported by tight supply. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and some areas are affected by rainy and snowy weather, which has led to a shortage of market supply in the short term. There is a common phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. After the holiday, downstream procurement has also recovered, and the combination of the two has led to a significant rebound in the ammonia market. Manufacturers have raised their prices multiple times, with a cumulative increase of over 300 yuan/ton in the latter half of the year. The dealer’s offer naturally skyrocketed. But the market did not continue until the end of the month. In the last week of February, the market supply and demand tended to balance, and prices also returned to stability.

Future Market Forecast

According to liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society, there is still a local tense atmosphere in the market on the supply side, but with the resumption of work on some devices, the supply may be favorable or exhausted in the later stage. On the demand side, there are certain expectations. The demand for the Spring Festival will gradually recover, and the demand for agriculture will increase to a certain extent. In addition, large factories are generally holding up prices, and there may still be some upward space for liquid ammonia in the later stage, with strong rigidity as the main factor.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 27th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6237.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81% compared to February 1st.

The market price of acrylic acid slightly increased in February. Prior to the holiday, the price of raw material propylene has risen, with increased cost support. In addition, the supply side is operating without pressure, and the intention of enterprises to ship at low prices is not strong. Downstream rigid demand is mainly followed up in an appropriate amount. As downstream pre holiday stocking gradually approaches its end, the pace of market trading has slowed down, and the focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market is mainly stable. After the holiday, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly, with limited impact on cost. Some units were in a shutdown state, and enterprises mainly executed pre received orders in the early stage. The supply side supported the enterprise’s price increase operation, but downstream demand followed up slowly. Inquiries and purchases were mainly for rigid needs, and market transactions were average. As the end of the month approached, the market atmosphere was light.

Cost side: Upstream propylene. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price for propylene on February 27th was 6895.75, an increase of 0.77% compared to February 1st (6843.25). The cost side is generally supported by the acrylic acid market.

Comparison chart of price trends between propylene (upstream raw materials) and acrylic acid in Shengyishe:

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the current cost support is still acceptable, the market transaction atmosphere is flat, and under the constraint of weak demand, it is expected that the acrylic acid market may operate under pressure in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been relatively strong, with most spot prices rising. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of February 26th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 13350 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of+2.30% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the price of formaldehyde in the Shandong region has recently declined. The upstream methanol market is weak, and the price of formaldehyde is basically following the decline in methanol. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in downstream panel factories has been poor, and the atmosphere of negotiations on site has been weak. The formaldehyde market has mainly declined, providing moderate support for the cost of POM.

In terms of supply:

After the holiday, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises remained generally stable, with an overall load rate of over 83%. Most companies have low inventory positions and have not experienced any accumulation of inventory. Some POM devices will resume work in the future, but overall, the impact on supply pressure is limited, and the supply side has a strong support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

Recently, downstream POM enterprises in China have not fully resumed work before the holiday, and on-site consumption has not been fully launched. With the return of terminal enterprises in the future and the urgent need for stocking, there is still room for a warming up in the trading atmosphere. In addition, there is a speculative atmosphere on the market, and overall, there is an expectation of a stronger demand side, which increases the expectation of spot price support for POM.

Future Market Forecast

In the week after the holiday, the POM market trend is relatively strong. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants is at a high level, and the inventory position of enterprises is low. The supply side pressure has not yet appeared, and the pricing operation of manufacturers tends to increase and support the market. It will take some time for downstream work to fully resume, and it is expected that the procurement operation will expand. It is expected that the POM market will continue to strengthen in the future.

Market Overview: According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of February 2, 2024, the reference price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton or 1.40% compared to January 27, 2024 (reference price of diethylene glycol was 5730 yuan/ton).

This week’s market situation: The domestic diethylene glycol market fluctuated and declined this week (1.27-2.2). The atmosphere of the Spring Festival is strong, and the domestic diethylene glycol market has experienced a narrow decline this week. The number of arrivals to the port within the week is average, with low inventory fluctuations. Downstream stocking has ended, and the shipment volume has decreased significantly. Downstream unsaturated resin factories have concentrated their holidays this week, resulting in a significant decline in production. Polyester production has also decreased to a certain extent. Market trading sentiment has cooled down, prices have fluctuated and declined, and the negotiation atmosphere has weakened, with few transactions. As of the close of this Thursday, Jiangsu spot prices closed at 5640-5660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; The delivery price of spot goods in South China closed at 5710-5720 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 150 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: Currently, the main downstream unsaturated resins are mostly shut down, and there is a slight demand for polyester polyurethane during the pre holiday consolidation stage. The lower reaches of South China have basically closed, and the transactions of the holders have come to a close; The demand margin in the East China market is insufficient, and operators are waiting for the market to close, and trading sentiment will gradually cool down. However, the current supply of diethylene glycol is stable, and the supply and demand structure is loose. According to analysts from Shengyishe, the recent trend of domestic diethylene glycol spot prices has loosened, and there is further room for market pressure to fall back.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have recently bottomed out. On February 4th, the rare earth index was 398 points, a decrease of 60.48% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 46.86% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

This week, the domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have remained stable; As of the 4th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 500000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price remained stable; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 400000 yuan/ton, and the price trend has remained stable this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 405000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price is stable; The price of neodymium metal is 517500 yuan/ton, and the price trend has remained stable this week; The price of praseodymium metal is 550000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium oxide is 407500 yuan/ton, and the weekly price trend is temporarily stable.

The domestic light rare earth market has bottomed out, and downstream enterprises have increased their holidays recently. There have been fewer transactions in the light rare earth market, and the new orders are average. The overall rare earth market is stable at a low level. Recently, some production enterprises have gradually taken a break, putting pressure on metal spot transactions. Downstream magnetic material enterprises have also started to take a break, with production enterprises mainly consuming inventory. Some small and medium-sized manufacturers are struggling to survive, and the price of metal praseodymium neodymium is still inverted, with poor transaction performance. However, as the year-end approaches, the light rare earth market has recently stopped falling and stabilized.

According to statistics, in December 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.172 million and 1.191 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 47.5% and 46.4%, and a market share of 37.7%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 37.9%, and a market share of 31.6%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth exports in December were 3438.8 tons; The cumulative total export volume of rare earths from China from January to December was 52306.5 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. The corresponding increase in export volume supported the prices of some products, but poor domestic demand led to a low market situation for light rare earths.

Market forecast: In the short term, as the year-end approaches, magnetic material companies will gradually begin to take a break, and it is expected that the rare earth market prices will remain stable at a low level in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 31st, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate was 43000 yuan/ton. Overall, lithium iron phosphate showed a broad downward trend in January, with the mainstream price currently around 43000 yuan/ton. The price in early January was 46000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of January was 43000 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 6.52% for the entire month of January, putting pressure on both cost and demand. Lithium iron phosphate is moving forward under pressure.

In January, the price of lithium iron phosphate mainly experienced a narrow decline, with an overall price drop of 6.52%, reaching 3000 yuan/ton. Currently, lithium iron phosphate is showing a continuous downward trend, mainly influenced by upstream lithium carbonate, passively following the decline. Upstream lithium carbonate is experiencing a cliff like decline, and lithium iron phosphate faces enormous cost pressure. The cost side is almost unsupported, and downstream demand is significantly insufficient. The demand for power vehicles is slowing down, and the demand is insufficient. Coupled with cost pressure, lithium iron phosphate manufacturers continue to lower prices, resulting in a significant decline. The operating load of enterprises continues to decrease, making it difficult for industry demand to improve and market sentiment is low.

Commodity index: On February 1st, the chemical index was 866 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that the market for lithium iron phosphate is mainly in a downward trend, and it is difficult for lithium iron phosphate to have a turning point in the short term.

In January, the domestic MIBK market experienced a significant decline. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the market reported a price of 15033 yuan/ton on January 1st, but dropped to 13666 yuan/ton on January 31st, a decrease of 9.09% for the month.

In early January, with tight spot resources, traders pushed up their offers. In the latter half of the year, with lower acceptance of high priced MIBK by downstream and intermediaries, a weak buying atmosphere, coupled with insufficient confidence in the future market, traders increased their enthusiasm for shipping, and prices gradually declined.

The raw material acetone market has risen narrowly. As of now, the negotiated price of acetone in the East China region is between 6950-7000 yuan/ton. As the holiday approaches, the trading atmosphere in the market is average. At the beginning of the month, due to the shortage of port supply, domestic factories are still in a loss making state, and traders are firm in their offers. After the market surged, with insufficient downstream demand support, the market quickly fell and transactions were flat.

From a terminal perspective, the intention to purchase large orders has decreased, and the demand is mostly for small orders to follow up. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and tend to operate targeted contracts, but traders are holding onto the market and reluctant to sell, resulting in a significant increase in small order prices.

It is expected that the weak and volatile operation will be the main trend in February. As the spring break approaches, the trading enthusiasm of manufacturers in the market is not high. Factories will mainly deliver orders, and inventory pressure is not high. It is expected that factory inventory may rise during the Spring Festival period, and downstream demand for replenishment will be the main trend after the holiday. There may be a slight increase but the cycle is relatively short. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream work and the production of new equipment in Anhui.