The domestic acetone market has slightly declined, with discussions in the East China market reaching between 6500-6550 yuan/ton. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the national acetone market was trading at 6937 yuan/ton on November 3rd, and on November 10th, the market was trading at 6832 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.51%.

The market supply is sufficient. The inventory at the port has not changed much, and according to statistics on the 9th, the ship traffic volume in November was around 13000 tons. There is sufficient supply of domestically produced goods, and there is a large amount of spot circulation resources in the market. Traders often offer according to the market, with more single negotiations being the main focus. Traders have a calm mindset, and market trading is not warm or hot.

Cost side bearish. Recently, crude oil has driven the decline of pure benzene, which is difficult to support on the cost side, and the phenol products of the same unit are also in a downward trend, with a lack of positive support in the industrial chain.

From a downstream perspective, MIBK is in a rapid downward trend. As of now, the market has negotiated to 14000 yuan/ton, and there is still room for negotiation on actual orders. The decline during the week reached 11.42%, indicating poor trading on the market. Downstream bisphenol A showed a weak downward trend, with the main drop in on-site auctions during the week, with the negotiated price in East China dropping to 9600-9700 yuan/ton. Downstream MMA factories have shut down and reduced their load, resulting in a sharp decrease in overall demand for acetone.

The industry chain is filled with negative news both upstream and downstream, and the short-term supply side is relatively stable. However, factories are also actively shipping, and traders are mainly following the market. Downstream products still show a sluggish trend. It is expected that the weak adjustment of acetone in East China will undergo a transition, with mainstream negotiations ranging from 6500 to 6600 yuan/ton.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic urea market prices fell first and then rose this week. Urea prices first fell from 2556.67 yuan/ton on October 30th to 2515.00 yuan/ton on October 31st, a decrease of 1.63%, and then rose to 2545.00 yuan/ton on November 5th, an increase of 1.19%. Over the weekend, prices increased by 1.56% year-on-year. Overall, urea prices fell by 0.46% this week. On November 6th, the urea commodity index was 119.15, an increase of 0.78 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 21.78% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 114.30% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Insufficient cost support, average downstream demand, and sufficient urea supply

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream prices of urea in China have fluctuated this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has slightly declined this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has increased first and then decreased. The price has increased from 4958.00 yuan/ton on October 30 to 5270.00 yuan/ton on October 31, an increase of 6.29%, and then dropped to 4926.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 6.53%. Over the weekend, the price has decreased by 3.60% year-on-year. Overall, the price of liquefied natural gas fell by 0.65% this week; The price of anthracite has slightly decreased, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) dropping from 1290 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1190 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; The price of liquid ammonia slightly decreased, dropping from 3966.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3933.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.84%, and the weekend price decreased by 5.98% year-on-year. The upstream raw material prices have slightly decreased, which lacks support for urea prices.

From a demand perspective, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand has increased, and urea exports are relatively good. Agriculture has entered the off-season. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has decreased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has weakened. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. The downstream melamine price of urea has slightly increased this week, rising from 7175.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7375.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 2.79%. From a supply perspective, some enterprises have completed maintenance, and daily urea production has further increased, resulting in sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid November, the domestic urea market may fluctuate slightly and rise. Business Society urea analysts believe that although the upstream market of urea has slightly declined, the cost support for urea is insufficient. But downstream industrial demand has improved, winter storage is about to begin, and agricultural demand has increased. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with a good supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of November 3, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was around 1032 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price of 866 yuan/ton), the price increased by 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.78%. Compared to September 1, 2023 (reference price of phosphate rock is 866 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 166 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.17%.

Looking back at the first half of 2023, the phosphorus ore market experienced a continuous and significant decline in the second quarter. At that time, downstream demand in the phosphorus ore market was weak, and under the supply and demand game, the focus of the phosphorus ore market continued to decline.

Since September, the phosphorus ore market has ushered in a “golden nine silver ten” period. After experiencing a low period, the market has started to steadily recover. The spot supply of phosphorus ore is tight, and some mining enterprises mainly rely on pre orders. The boost in downstream demand has driven the market back to a high level. Many mining enterprises in Sichuan, Guizhou, and Yunnan regions have started to actively increase the price of phosphorus ore. By the end of October, the market price of 30 grade phosphorus ore broke the thousand yuan mark.

In November, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market rose slightly again, with some mining companies in certain regions having good shipments. The prices of new orders continued to rise slightly, with an increase of around 20-50 yuan/ton. On November 3rd, the domestic market price of 30 grade phosphate ore was around 1000-1120 yuan/ton. Compared to early September, the increase is nearly 20%.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for phosphate ore is stable, and some areas of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market are gradually opening winter storage and stocking. The overall demand for downstream phosphate fertilizer is performing well. An industry insider stated that the new orders for terminal phosphate fertilizer production are currently being shipped well, so the demand side continues to provide support for the phosphate ore market.

In terms of supply: After the Double Festival, downstream demand for phosphate ore is still good. As downstream pre festival inventory gradually depletes, some downstream enterprises gradually start purchasing in demand after the festival. The demand side provides stable support for phosphate ore, and some mining enterprises boost the market after the festival, driving the overall phosphate ore market to continue to approach high levels. Downstream export orders and winter storage expectations also support the mentality of the phosphate ore market.

Prediction of future market for phosphate rock

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic phosphorus ore market is mild. The overall construction intensity in Guizhou region is not strong, and the import and export prices of phosphorus ore do not have an advantage. The use of phosphorus ore relies on domestic independent mining. Therefore, in the short term, the overall supply of domestic phosphorus ore market is in a tight state, and the downstream terminal nitrogen fertilizer market is strong, providing support for phosphorus ore from bottom to top. According to phosphorus ore data analysts from Business Society, At the end of the year, the phosphorus ore market mainly operates at high levels with a stronger trend, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

According to data from Business News Agency, as of October 30th, the average quoted price of maleic anhydride was 7470.00 yuan/ton (including tax), a decrease of 12.94% from 8579.80 yuan/ton on October 1st.

On October 30th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 70.37, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.72% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and a 37.50% increase from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Crude oil fluctuations have limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

The crude oil market continued to fluctuate in October. At the beginning of the month, the situation on the mainland is volatile, and oil prices may intensify volatility, with an increase in amplitude. The mid-term supply-demand game will continue, with tight supply and slowing demand remaining the main themes of oil price trading. The weekly inventory report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in mid month showed that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly dropped significantly last week, with a more than expected decrease. Coupled with tensions in the Middle East, this has brought a bullish trend to the crude oil market, with prices hitting nearly two week highs. With the strengthening of diplomatic efforts and the easing of tensions between Palestine and Israel, the market has shown some optimism about supply restrictions, and the oil market has come under pressure and declined. Overall, crude oil prices are still at a high level.

The decline in the market for n-butane and hydrogenated benzene is bearish for the domestic maleic anhydride market

On the upstream side, the overall hydrogenation benzene market declined in October. The factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was 8133.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 7866.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 3.28%. The spot market for pure benzene has continuously decreased, while hydrogenation benzene has followed suit, with a cumulative decrease of about 350-400 yuan/ton. Although crude oil has risen in the future and the ethylene market has performed well, due to weak downstream demand, there is significant upward resistance in the pure benzene market, with the market maintaining a mainly fluctuating trend, while the trend of hydrogenated benzene closely follows that of pure benzene. Affected by international crude oil fluctuations, the market for n-butane fluctuated and declined in October. As of October 30th, the price in Shandong was around 5200-5300 yuan/ton.

The downward trend of unsaturated resin market has limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

In October, the main raw material of the downstream unsaturated resin market for maleic anhydride, styrene, was overall declining. The maleic anhydride market continued to decline, and resin cost support was limited. In addition, the current resin supply side is weak, with poor trading, and the unsaturated resin market continues to decline.

Business Society maleic anhydride product analysts believe that currently, the raw material of maleic anhydride, n-butane, is generally declining, and hydrogenation benzene is mainly stable, with limited cost support for maleic anhydride; Downstream unsaturated resin market is weak, operation is cautious. The fundamentals are weak, and the factory price of maleic anhydride continues to decline. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and dealers continue to fall. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may continue to decline in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated and fell in October: urea prices dropped from 2555.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2515.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.57%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 0.36% year-on-year.

On October 30th, the urea commodity index was 118.91, a decrease of 0.08 points from yesterday, a decrease of 21.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 113.87% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream domestic urea market prices fluctuated in October.

Cost side: The upstream market has significantly increased

Price Details of Yangquan Anthracite (Washing Medium Block) in October

October 1st/ October 15th/ October 31st

Yangquan/ 1210 yuan/ton/ 1290 yuan/ton/ 1290 yuan/ton

In October, the price of liquefied natural gas increased significantly, from 4268.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5270.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 23.48%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 4.87% year-on-year. The price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium fast) has slightly increased, rising from 1210 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 1290 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The price of liquid ammonia first fell and then rose, dropping from 4000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 3916.67 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.08%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.78% at the end of the month. Overall, the upstream market for urea has significantly increased, with good cost support.

On the demand side: melamine prices rise first and then fall

From the demand side, agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are good. Sporadic fertilization in agriculture. The operating rate of the compound fertilizer plant is average, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement is normal. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. The price of melamine decreased slightly in October, from 7275.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7175.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.37%. From a supply perspective: Some enterprises have stopped for maintenance, and their daily urea production is around 160000-170000 tons, indicating sufficient supply.

Looking at the future market, the urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early November. The prices of anthracite and liquid ammonia have significantly increased, with good cost support. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with sufficient supply. The demand for agriculture has weakened, with industrial demand being the main focus. Urea may fluctuate slightly in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mixed xylene market significantly decreased in October. On October 30th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.66% from 8490 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since October, the arbitrage space between Asia and the United States has narrowed, and the external price of xylene has decreased

Since October, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, and the outflow of aromatics has significantly decreased, causing a slight decrease in xylene prices across Asia. As of October 27th, the price of isomeric grade xylene in Asia was between 889-890 US dollars per ton, a significant decrease from the beginning of the month at 959-960 US dollars per ton.

Domestic inventory increased significantly in the early stage and decreased slightly in the later stage compared to September

The inventory of mixed xylene remains low and the supply of goods remains relatively tight, providing support for the mixed xylene market. It is understood that as of mid October, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 29000 tons, a significant increase from 19000 tons at the end of September; As of the end of October, the inventory of xylene in East and South China had significantly decreased from mid October to 20000 tons.

Crude oil has slightly decreased overall this month, and xylene cost support has weakened

Since October, the overall international crude oil price has declined, and the cost support for xylene has weakened. As of October 27th, the WTI12 contract closed at $85.15 per barrel and settled at $85.54 per barrel; The Brent 01 contract closed at $89.12 per barrel and settled at $89.20 per barrel.

PX Starts with Small Fluctuation Xylene Gains Just Needed Support

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is around 70%. Spot supply is relatively normal, and the crude oil price trend is rising. The external price trend of PX is mainly fluctuating. As of October 19, the closing price in Asia is 993 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1018 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has been mainly fluctuating, and overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is around 70%.

Weak demand for phthalic anhydride and weak support for xylene

In October, the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride remained at over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride goods was relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods was normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride fell, which correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. In October, downstream procurement was not active, and some phthalic anhydride manufacturers continuously lowered their factory prices, causing a significant decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season and xylene demand support is weakening

Since October, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, coupled with downstream replenishment behavior before the Double Festival, downstream inquiries have been light after the festival, and the demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. Recently, the operating load of refineries in China has exceeded 70%, while the operating load of local refineries in Shandong is around 65%.

In terms of gasoline, there has been no holiday support recently, with a decrease in self driving frequency and driving radius. The demand for gasoline has decreased, and some businesses are moderately restocking on dips. The purchasing sentiment is not positive, and some refineries have increased their inventory. The decline in gasoline is significant. In terms of diesel, the construction of outdoor infrastructure and engineering projects has maintained a high level, coupled with the support of demand for open sea fishing and agricultural autumn harvests, logistics and transportation have shown active negative performance. The overall demand for diesel is relatively stable, so the decline in diesel is relatively small.

Future forecast: In the short term, international crude oil prices will fluctuate at high levels, while xylene costs will still be supported. Domestic sources of goods will accumulate significantly and gradually be destocked. It is expected that mixed xylene will consolidate in a narrow range in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of chlorinated paraffin fluctuated and increased this month. On October 1st, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5733 yuan/ton. On October 27th, the average market price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 was 5866 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 2.33% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic price of chlorinated paraffin increased in October. In the first half of October, the price of chlorinated paraffin slightly increased. Due to the continuous high prices of raw material liquid wax, some chlorinated paraffin manufacturers have raised prices with the increase of raw materials. But downstream procurement is based on demand, with cautious procurement requirements and average market trading. In the second half of October, the price of chlorinated paraffin increased and consolidated. The market for raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine has started to weaken, and cost support has weakened. There is currently no significant improvement on the demand side, and the overall market trading is light. As of October 27th, the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 6300 yuan/ton for environmental protection, and the factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 5000-5900 yuan/ton for national standard.

According to the weekly increase and decrease from July 31, 2023 to October 16, 2023, it can be seen that the domestic chlorinated paraffin cycle has seen mixed fluctuations. October saw a significant increase, with the largest increase of 1.16% in the week of October 2nd.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax rose first and then fell this month, and liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has fluctuated in both directions this month, and the overall trend is fluctuating and weak. The market transaction is average, and the manufacturer is stable in shipping.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has started to weaken recently, and cost support is weak. At present, the performance of terminal demand is not good, and downstream purchases remain in demand, resulting in weak market transactions. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be weak in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

Recent price trends of urea

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic urea market price has slightly increased this week, with urea prices rising from 2520.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2526.67 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.26%. Weekend prices fell by 0.82% year-on-year. On October 22, the urea commodity index was 117.52, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 22.85% from the cycle’s highest point of 152.33 points (2022-05-15), and an increase of 111.37% from the lowest point of 55.60 points on August 17, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Cost support increases, downstream demand weakens, and urea supply is sufficient

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream price of urea in China has slightly increased this week.

From the data of the upstream and downstream industry chains, it can be seen that the urea upstream market has significantly increased this week: the price of liquefied natural gas has significantly increased, from 4498.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 4900.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 8.94%, and the weekend price has decreased by 22.91% year-on-year; The price of anthracite has stabilized at a high level, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washing medium block) around 1290 yuan/ton this week; The price of liquid ammonia has increased significantly, from 3566.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3800.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 6.54%, and the weekend price has decreased by 7.99% year-on-year. The significant increase in upstream raw material prices has increased support for urea prices. The price of melamine downstream of urea has temporarily stabilized this week, at 7175.00 yuan/ton.

From a demand perspective: Agricultural demand has weakened, industrial demand is average, and urea exports are currently not favorable. Agriculture has entered the off-season. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has decreased, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement has weakened. Board and melamine enterprises generally start construction and mainly purchase on demand. From a supply perspective, some enterprises have completed maintenance, and daily urea production has further increased, resulting in sufficient supply.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In late October, the domestic urea market may experience a slight fluctuation and increase. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has significantly increased, and urea cost support has increased. Downstream agricultural demand has basically ended, while industrial demand is average. Indian bidding news has boosted industry sentiment. The daily production of urea is around 160000-170000 tons, with a good supply. In the future, urea may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range.

1、 Trend analysis

Copper prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 66621.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.23% from the 66466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 6.05%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, it has fallen by 5% and increased by 6%. Recently, copper prices have rebounded slightly after a decline.

LME copper inventory continues to climb, accumulating to a two-year high.

Macroscopically, Powell’s unexpected singing boosted expectations of suspending interest rate hikes, and international oil prices rose to a new high in nearly two weeks. Domestically, a series of economic data released shows that the economy is still on the path of stable growth.

On the supply side: In September, China’s electrolytic copper production reached 1.012 million tons, an increase of 23000 tons month on month, an increase of 2.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 11.3%; In October, due to holiday factors, the load of the smelting plant has decreased month on month, with an estimated output of 99.6 million tons in October, a decrease of 1.58% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 10.50%; In October, three smelting plants began to put into production, but only one actually increased. The other two will not have an increase until November. Therefore, it is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production will return to over 1 million tons in November. The spot processing fee TC for imported copper concentrate continues to be high, and smelting enterprises are increasing production. The domestic supply of recycled copper is tight, the profit from imported recycled copper has expanded, and the price difference of refined waste has decreased, far below the breakeven point.

On the demand side: The rebound in terminal consumption is weak, but some companies are buying on dips to replenish their inventory. Last week, the operating rate of precision copper rods was 82.75, an increase of 3.37 percentage points compared to the previous week; The operating rate of recycled copper rods is 31.67%, with a decrease of 9.49 percentage points in the circumferential ratio.

In summary, LME’s explicit inventory has continuously increased, with a slight decrease in copper production in October and a slight rebound in demand, but still weak. There has been some improvement in the macro aspect, but overall, there is no particularly good news. Given that copper prices are currently at the bottom and there is a low rebound demand, it is expected that copper prices will mainly operate with strong short-term fluctuations.

The price of plasticizer DOP fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 16th, the price of DOP was 11516.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.60% compared to the price of 12200 yuan/ton on October 7th. This week, plasticizer prices have fallen from a high point, with no cost support, and DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen this week.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on October 16th was 12500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13% compared to the fluctuating price of 12360 yuan/ton on October 7th. Upstream propylene prices have fallen, while the cost of isooctanol has decreased. This week, the downstream replenishment of isooctanol has ended, and the demand for isooctanol is poor. This week, the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and consolidated.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of phthalic anhydride on October 16th was 8375 yuan/ton, a fluctuation decrease of 3.87% compared to the price of 8712.50 yuan/ton on October 7th. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, the supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the downstream procurement situation is average. Some phthalic anhydride manufacturers have accumulated inventory, resulting in a decrease in the price of adjacent benzene and a decrease in the cost of phthalic anhydride. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that the downstream replenishment of isooctanol has ended this week, resulting in poor customer procurement enthusiasm and poor demand for isooctanol; The price of ortho benzene has decreased, the cost of raw materials for phthalic anhydride has decreased, and the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen. Overall, the prices of plasticizer DOP raw materials have fluctuated and decreased, the cost of plasticizers has decreased, and demand is weak. The price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and decreased.