The price of aluminum fluoride has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 21st, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14% from the price of aluminum fluoride on December 14th, which was 10950 yuan/ton. Aluminum fluoride enterprises have temporarily stabilized production, with sufficient supply of aluminum fluoride. Raw material prices have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased. This week, aluminum fluoride prices have fallen.

Reduced raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the price of fluorite was 3550 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.70% compared to the price of 3575 yuan/ton on December 14th; Compared to the quoted price of 3612.50 yuan/ton on December 1st, it has decreased by 1.73%. The downstream demand for fluorite is sluggish, the fluorite market is weakening, and the price of fluorite is weak and falling. The prices of raw materials have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry analyst believes that the price of fluorite has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased; Aluminum fluoride enterprises have stable operations and sufficient supply of aluminum fluoride. In the future, the supply and demand of aluminum fluoride are relatively balanced, and the cost of raw materials has decreased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Recently (12.11-12.18), the market for butadiene rubber has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from 11900 yuan/ton on the 11th.

The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has significantly declined. Downstream tire factories are operating steadily, and demand for butadiene rubber is slightly weak. In addition, the supply side has slightly decreased, and the pressure on butadiene rubber is slightly eased. The overall transaction volume of butadiene rubber in the off-season is light. As of December 18th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company’s Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised prices by 11600 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of Shunding rubber in the East China region is reported at 11500-11900 yuan/ton; Private polybutadiene rubber costs 11200-11600 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.11-12.18), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly decreased, and Maoming Petrochemical’s butadiene rubber plant will be shut down for maintenance starting from the 13th.

Recently (12.11-12.18), the price of butadiene has significantly declined, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the price of butadiene was 8058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.15% from 8407 yuan/ton on December 11th.

Recently (12.11-12.18), the natural rubber market has fluctuated and fallen, and the atmosphere in the rubber market is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the price was at 12380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% from 12470 yuan/ton on December 11th, and the lowest point in the cycle was at 12320 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Recently (12.11-12.18), tire production has been stable with all steel tires, and the demand for rubber is mainly weak. It is understood that as of mid December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society, the cost of butadiene rubber has significantly decreased and the demand has weakened during the off-season. Although Maoming Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance recently, the overall supply of butadiene rubber is still loose, and it is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will be weak and consolidate in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 18, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8733 yuan/ton. Compared with December 12 (reference price of n-butanol was 8433 yuan/ton), the price increased by 267 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.56%. Compared with December 1st (reference price of n-butanol at 7766 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 967 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.02%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (12.12-12.18), the domestic market for n-butanol in Shandong region has shown an upward trend. In early December, with the support of both supply and demand, the n-butanol market saw a broad upward trend. Subsequently, after downstream demand calmed down, the market for n-butanol fell back from a high level. Starting from December 12th, the n-butanol market has seen another upward trend, with the market’s focus constantly moving towards high levels. As of December 18th, the price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region has been around 8700-8800 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 3% in seven days.

Analysis of factors supporting the upward trend of n-butanol market:

In terms of supply: Recently, some regions in China have temporarily shut down their n-butanol plants for maintenance, leading to a reduction in expected supply within the n-butanol plant. The pressure on the supply side is relatively low, and the supply side provides support for the n-butanol market.

In terms of demand: Recently, due to weather and other factors, logistics and transportation conditions in some regions of China have been restricted, and some downstream regions have started early stocking. Downstream demand circulation has improved, and the demand side has boosted the n-butanol market.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the exchange is still good, and the mentality of the operators is good. The inquiry atmosphere on the exchange is mild. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the price of DOP was 11716.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% from the price of 11808.33 yuan/ton on December 8th. The prices of raw materials have stopped rising and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased. This week, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of isooctanol surged in early December, but this week, the rise of isooctanol supported a decline, and the price of isooctanol fell from its high point. As of December 15th, the quoted price of isooctanol was 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% compared to the quoted price of 12825 yuan/ton on December 8th. In early December, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers increased at a high level, leading to active procurement by major plasticizer factories. As a result, demand for rigid isooctanol increased, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol products; As the price of isooctanol rises, plasticizer manufacturers experience a decrease in profits and losses, the operating load of plasticizers decreases, the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient, the demand for isooctanol decreases, and the high price of isooctanol falls back.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that currently, the DOP market for plasticizers is mainly characterized by short-term cyclical transactions. The high start of plasticizer production combined with the decrease in octanol production has led to a significant increase in octanol prices and an increase in plasticizer prices; As the price of octanol rises to a high level, plasticizer factories gradually begin to lose money, the operating load decreases, leading to a decrease in demand for octanol, a decline in the price of isooctanol, and a decline in the high price of plasticizers. Overall, in the cost demand game, short-term DOP prices are mainly volatile and consolidating. However, as plasticizer manufacturers increase losses and inventory accumulates, the enthusiasm for plasticizer production decreases. In the medium to long term, it is expected that plasticizer DOP prices will fluctuate and fall.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% from the beginning of the week price of 10766.67 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.73%.

Supply side: The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined this week, with the mainstream negotiated price in various regions of the country being 10600-11000 yuan/ton. Recently, some units have been shut down and waiting for the market, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Some manufacturers have accumulated inventory, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased.

Cost side: The domestic fluorite price trend has declined, with an average price of 3575 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 1.04% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3612.5 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tense mining situation in upstream mines, with some areas experiencing mining accidents. Fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections, The difficulty of starting a fluorite mine has increased. With the decrease in temperature and the increase in rainy and snowy weather in the northern region, fluorite production is limited. However, in recent times, there has been strong resistance from downstream towards high priced fluorite, and the procurement situation has been average. The price of fluorite has decreased, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has continued to decline.

The price trend of sulfuric acid in the market has declined this week, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price at 288 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 4.64%. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid has declined, with some cost reduction. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have decreased their purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid, and the price trend of sulfuric acid has declined this week. As a result, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has slightly declined.

On the demand side, the market trend of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to follow up, and some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance. The monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small, and the price trend of R22 is mainly falling. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, but the actual high-end quotations have fallen, and the purchasing atmosphere has cooled down. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000-28000 yuan/ton. The demand for the refrigerant industry during the off-season is insufficient, and transactions are relatively flat. The refrigerant industry is maintaining low production, and demand is poor, making it difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to improve.

Market forecast: In the near future, the upstream raw material fluorite market will slightly decline, and the price of sulfuric acid may show a downward trend; The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry market remains at a low level, and there is poor enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. In the short term, hydrofluoric acid prices will remain at a low and volatile level.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have slightly declined this week. The price of sulfuric acid has dropped from 292.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 288.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.37%, and the weekend price has dropped by 4.53% year-on-year.

The upstream market is consolidating at a high level, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has stabilized at a high level, with sulfur prices at 1060.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, prices fell by 29.96% year-on-year. The upstream market is consolidating at a high level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has remained stable at a high level, with a market price of 3500.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 1.41% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market is consolidating at a low level, with a market price of 16650.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 4.50% year-on-year. The downstream market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late December, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The downstream titanium dioxide market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market is consolidating at a high level, with average cost support. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 8th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6960 yuan/ton, which is 7000 yuan/ton compared to the reference average price on December 4th. This week, the domestic price of thermal phosphoric acid decreased by 0.57%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 8th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6833 yuan/ton, which is lower than the reference average price of 6833 yuan/ton on December 4th. The domestic wet process phosphoric acid price remained stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of hot process phosphoric acid has decreased, while the market price of wet process phosphoric acid has remained stable. The prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus and phosphate ore have been lowered, weakening cost support. At present, the operating rate of phosphoric acid enterprises is stable, and the demand in the phosphoric acid market is sluggish. Trading is limited, and transactions are mainly negotiated on a single basis. As of December 8th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 7100 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6400-7150 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6150-7550 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore, the overall domestic phosphate ore market saw a slight decline this week. Some mining companies in certain regions have adjusted the prices of high-end grade phosphate ore in new orders, with a price reduction of about 10-30 yuan/ton for 30 grade phosphate ore. The phosphate ore market in other regions has remained stable. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the downstream market situation is weak. The domestic price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has fallen this week. The market trading situation is light, and the market is mostly cautious and wait-and-see. Downstream purchases are generally average, with demand being the main focus. As of now, the market quotation for yellow phosphorus is around 25000-25500 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe, the phosphoric acid market has recently weakened, with a slight adjustment being the main trend. The trend of raw material market is not good, and the cost support for phosphoric acid is insufficient. Downstream demand remains sluggish, and the industry has a strong bearish sentiment. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market prices will be weakly consolidated and operated.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream average price of petroleum coke products from major domestic refineries in November was 1732.50 yuan/ton on November 1st and 1680.00 yuan/ton on November 29th, with a monthly decline of 3.03%.

Cost side: Limited cost support for petroleum coke in the downward trend of crude oil fluctuations

In November, the international crude oil price trend declined. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.41 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $81.47 per barrel. The November crude oil price fell by 5.69%. Firstly, the economic data is poor, and the news is bearish for the oil price market. There are still concerns about inflation levels in the United States, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates may continue to rise in the future. The US dollar is rising, putting pressure on prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold priced in US dollars; The multiple economic data released by the United States have made the market bearish about the future demand outlook, leading to a decrease in crude oil prices. Secondly, the supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has been alleviated, as the seasonal decrease in internal demand in the region has led to an increase in its export share; The peak oil season in North America and Europe has ended, and demand has declined, suppressing the crude oil market. Thirdly, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region and negative factors, resulting in a decline in crude oil prices and a decline in domestic petroleum coke market prices.

Supply side: Port inventory rising, pressure on refined petroleum coke shipments

In November, ships importing petroleum coke arrived at ports one after another, but domestic petroleum coke prices continued to decline, sponge coke delivery speed significantly slowed down, and the overall inventory of petroleum coke in ports increased. The price of ground refined petroleum coke fluctuates, with limited downstream demand and average hoarding enthusiasm. Refinery shipments are under pressure, and trading is light. Refineries adjust prices based on changes in their own indicators.

Demand side: Metal silicon and electrolytic aluminum reduce production of petroleum coke. Downstream market overall declines

In November, metal silicon first fell and then stabilized. As of November 29th, the reference price for the domestic 441 # metal silicon market was 15180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.94% from the beginning of the month. The main production areas in Southwest China have gradually entered the flat and dry seasons. Based on the current scale of production stoppage, the production reduction in Southwest China in November did not exceed expectations. In the later stage, there is still room for further production reduction, and it is expected that the production will decrease month on month. The newly invested production capacity of Northwest large factories is slowly being released. At present, the demand for purchasing petroleum coke from metallic silicon is still acceptable, supporting the petroleum coke market.

In November, the overall shipment of medium sulfur calcined coke was average, with poor trading, and the price of raw petroleum coke continued to decline. The downstream aluminum carbon and negative electrode markets performed weakly, with more purchases made on demand and production maintained as the main focus. The support for calcined coke prices was limited, and coupled with high inventory of medium sulfur calcined coke, the price of medium sulfur calcined coke continued to decline in November.

The electrolytic aluminum market fluctuated and declined in November. Electrolytic aluminum production enterprises mainly maintain stable production, with large operating capacity. In the southwest direction, Yunnan’s production reduction effect is gradually showing, and the output has significantly decreased. However, in terms of downstream demand, there is a seasonal weakening trend, but the possibility of a significant short-term weakening is not high. The overall market situation for aluminum carbon is weak, and the purchase of petroleum coke is maintained as a necessity.

Market forecast: The recent international crude oil market has been volatile, with limited support for the petroleum coke market; At present, the overall high inventory of petroleum coke in the local refining market, coupled with weak downstream demand, is mainly based on on-demand procurement. But as the current price of locally refined petroleum coke continues to decline, downstream enterprises will replenish as needed, and it is expected that locally refined petroleum coke will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of November 30th, the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate was 52000 yuan/ton. Overall, lithium iron phosphate showed a broad downward trend in December. Currently, the mainstream price is around 52000 yuan/ton, with a price of 63600 yuan/ton in early November and 52000 yuan/ton at the end of November. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, with limited new customer transactions and mainly contract customers.

In November, the price of lithium iron phosphate mainly experienced a narrow decline, with a downward trend. Overall, the price fell by 15.34% in November, with a drop of 12000 yuan/ton. Currently, downstream restocking is on demand, with poor demand and average stocking willingness. Upstream lithium carbonate experienced a significant decline in November, with limited cost support, sufficient supply, and slow shipment. The overall market is under pressure.

Commodity index: On November 29th, the chemical index was 869 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 37.93% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 45.32% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that in the short term, the market for lithium iron phosphate is mainly weak, with insufficient support on the cost side, poor downstream demand, and insufficient upward momentum.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market prices fluctuated and fell in November, with an upward trend in prices at the end of the month. The average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market has dropped from 13075.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12775.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.29%, and the end of month price has dropped by 9.72% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly decreased this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective: In November, the market price of maleic anhydride first fell and then rose. The price of maleic anhydride first fell from 7312.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6932.00 yuan/ton on November 9th, a decrease of 5.20%, and then rose to 7160.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.29%. Overall, the market price of maleic anhydride in November fell slightly by 2.08%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 2.29% year-on-year. In November, the market for 1,4-butanediol experienced a significant decline. The price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 10157.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9628.57 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.20%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 0.90% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have dropped significantly, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, the price of tetrahydrofuran has been negatively affected.

From the demand side, the price of spandex in the market decreased slightly in November. The price of spandex decreased from 33750.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 32575.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.48%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 11.24% year-on-year. The downstream spandex market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future: In mid to early December, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream market for maleic anhydride and 1,4-butanediol has experienced a significant decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.