last week (12.20-24) the market of liquid ammonia has stopped rising and stabilized. Partially affected by the rising ammonia volume, the price has mainly declined, while the price of Shandong and Hebei has stabilized. The southwest, northwest and other places have a decline of about 100 yuan. However, the market is still at the level of weak supply and demand. According to the monitoring of business society, as of December 24, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 0. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4100-4 300 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of liquid ammonia remained stable, the ammonia volume in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei and two lakes changed little, and the local supply increased. The decline of urea price led to the increase of liquid ammonia shipment, the ammonia volume of southwest gas head enterprises and Northwest China increased, and the price decreased slightly.

At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still suppressed by the cost side. Affected by regulation, coal prices continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business society, thermal coal fell sharply last week, with a range of 10.77%.

In terms of methanol, the methanol market fell significantly last week. The shipments of mainland enterprises were general, the inventory increased, traders waited and saw, the downstream demand entered the off-season, the coal price fell, and the methanol cost weakened. The average price of domestic methanol production enterprises fell from 2632 yuan / ton to 2450 yuan / ton, and the weekly price fell by 6.76%. The sharp decline of methanol price brought bad news to the cost of liquid ammonia.

On the demand side, in terms of urea and compound fertilizer, the price of urea stops rising and turns to falling. Last week, the market atmosphere was cold, and the urea price decreased slightly, down 1.02%, mainly due to the weakening of cost support, the downstream demand entered the bottleneck period, and the urea supply increased. Although the agricultural demand is advancing, the industrial demand is mainly on the sidelines. Urea and compound fertilizer markets are weak.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, and the price difference has basically remained reasonable since December.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the liquid ammonia industry chain is still weak, and the prices of many downstream products have decreased significantly, especially the upstream liquefied natural gas and downstream melamine.

Future forecast: the business community believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is basically balanced, the market is supported by local benefits, the price will show regional differentiation, and the price in the main production area is expected to be stable in the later stage.