1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 9340 yuan / ton on November 26, a decrease of 960 yuan / ton compared with 10300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 9.32% during the month and an increase of 17.12% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In November, the PVC market first fell broadly, and then maintained a volatile trend. The price rebounded in the latter ten days, but it was difficult to recover the early decline. The overall trend in the month showed a downward trend and the focus shifted downward. This month, the PVC market was significantly affected by the disk drive. The futures price continued to fall, and the spot market quickly followed. In the first week of the month, it fell sharply by 9.32% to the price level in August, and the early increase was basically spit back. Moreover, the raw material calcium carbide fell deeply by about 24% during the week. The PVC cost support was weak, and the price fell below the 9000 yuan mark; In the second week, the disk strengthened and the decline of raw materials stabilized, the PVC market stopped falling and rose by 0.33%, the market transaction atmosphere gradually improved, and the enthusiasm of downstream bargain hunting and replenishment increased. In the third week, the price of raw calcium carbide rose slightly, the PVC low price transaction was good, and the price rose tentatively during the week, but the fluctuation was limited. Near the end of the month, PVC spot continued to rise, but the temperature decreased, the seasonal off-season demand was weak, the downstream purchase was conservative, and continued to rise, lacking the actual driving force.

According to the weekly rise and fall from August 30 to November 21, 2021, it can be seen that the domestic PVC market rose in the early stage of the cycle. Since the downward channel was opened in October, it rebounded slightly in the week of November 8 and 22, but it still rose less and fell more. Under the guidance of bad news, the overall PVC market was dominated by the following actors in November.

In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9250-9350 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Changzhou is 9500-9600 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9600-9800 yuan / ton. In November, the market price in all parts of China decreased as a whole.

In the PVC market price in Asia, CFR China continued to fall by 40 to 1450 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia fell by 30 to 1520 US dollars / ton, and CFR India fell by 70 to 1640 US dollars / ton.

In November, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and fell. At the beginning of the month, the average price of ethylene was US $1176.25/t, and at the end of the month, the average price of ethylene was US $1135.25/t, down 3.45%. The current price increased by 6.90% month on month, and the current price increased by 33.99% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil: crude oil inventory is expected to rise, and the market continues to decline recently, so the data analysts of business agency expect the external price of ethylene to fall next.

The price of calcium carbide and raw material orchid charcoal fell slightly. At present, shenmulan charcoal is about 1600-1700 yuan / ton, and the cost support of calcium carbide is weakened. The downstream PVC market has stopped falling and maintained stability recently, with a slight upward trend, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement. On the whole, the upstream support of calcium carbide is insufficient, the downstream market rises, and the price of calcium carbide stops falling and rebounds.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that the PVC market as a whole fell in November. Although the price of raw calcium carbide has increased slightly and the cost support is OK, the demand in the off-season is weakened. In addition, the operating load of PVC enterprises has increased to a certain extent and the market supply has increased. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate without obvious changes in PVC fundamentals in the short term.