1、 Trend analysis
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As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated and rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 71470 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from 70933.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 23.32% from the beginning of the week and 37.75% year-on-year.
Copper weekly rise and fall chart
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 4 and fell by 8. Recently, it has fallen more or less.
Macro aspect: a large real estate group heavily indebted paid bond interest on time, which makes people expect that the real estate industry may get more policy support. Domestic real estate risk appetite has warmed up.
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Supply and demand: in October, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 49.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be lower than the critical point, and the outlook of the manufacturing industry has weakened. The transportation of copper concentrate in Northwest China is blocked, and the short-term transportation port inventory is accumulated. China’s energy shortage and rising electricity prices in Europe also pose the risk of reduced demand from metal users. However, copper inventory is still low, LME inventory continues to decline to nearly 100000 tons, and the inventory in the previous period decreased to the low level of 37000 tons, which supports the copper price. China’s export performance was better than expected, the superimposed electrolytic copper production was still limited, and the copper inventory continued to decline, so the copper price was strongly supported.
LME copper inventories continued to fall this week
Annual comparison chart of copper
According to the annual comparison chart of business society, the price of copper this year is higher than that in the past two years, and now the trend is mainly high and volatile.
To sum up: this week, real estate concerns eased, copper inventories were low, the operating rate of downstream processed materials increased slightly month on month, and the short-term support of copper price was acceptable. However, affected by the off-season, it is expected that the short-term copper price will still maintain a wide shock trend.
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