Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price rose sharply this week, and the quotation fell from 3080.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2694.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 12.53%, a year-on-year increase of 50.22% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell sharply this week.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is increased, and the urea supply is insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, down 450 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2640 yuan / ton this weekend, down 410 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Guangzhou Bangyi urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell sharply this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, and the quotation fell from 8276.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7560.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 8.66%, a year-on-year increase of 103.41% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell sharply. The quotation fell from 1505.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1092.50 yuan / ton this weekend, down 27.41%, up 77.50% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 5183.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5046.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.64%, up 61.06% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 20333.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 19633.33 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3.44%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea is down as a whole, which has a negative impact on the price of urea.

From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand ends, the industrial demand rises, the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is coming, the demand for low-cost urea by the downstream compound fertilizer plant increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, the supply decreases, and the daily output of urea is less than 130000 tons. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased and urea supply decreased.

The future price of urea is bearish

In mid and early November, the domestic urea market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, and the industrial demand has increased. However, the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have fallen sharply, the cost support has weakened, and the future urea market price may fluctuate slightly.