In October 2021, the domestic 1# tin ingot Market rose first and then fell, and rebounded at the end of the month. The average price of the domestic market was 278012.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 277637.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 0.13%.

On October 28, the tin commodity index was 138.75, down 7.83 points from yesterday, down 8.75% from 152.06 points (2021-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 223.73% from 42.86 points, the lowest point on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In October, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated for many times. On the whole, it maintained a shock upward in the middle and early days, fell after the shock in the late days, and rebounded slightly near the end of the month. With the support of good fundamentals in the middle and early ten days, the futures market strengthened, driving the upward price of the spot market. In terms of smelters, the operating rate this month has little change compared with the previous month, and the market supply is still tight. There are 680 tons in the tin warehouse of the London futures exchange, and the inventory in the previous period was 1009 tons, both at a low level, and the supply is still tight. After entering October, the impact of the restricted power policy on the downstream demand side gradually weakened, and the peak shift production of solder and other industries had a limited impact on the overall tin demand. On the whole, the smelter continues to be affected by double control of energy consumption, power restriction policy and shortage of raw materials. The output of refined tin is still low and the overall supply is still tight. After entering the latter ten days, affected by the sharp decline of power coal futures on the 21st, the nonferrous metals sector made an overall correction. On the 28th, Shanghai tin fell by the limit, and the spot market followed the decline. Only one day, driven by its tight supply, the price of tin made a correction on the 29th.

In the future, the business agency believes that the impact of the current power restriction policy is gradually weakened, and manufacturers at home and abroad are gradually resuming production. The latest data show that tin import in September has been flat compared with the same period last year. With the resumption of production in Malaysia, it is expected that the supply will recover to a certain extent in the future. In terms of demand, the downstream solder is expected to have a good demand and support the demand for tin ingots. With the falling price, it will stimulate the downstream purchase intention. Under the condition that the overall inventory is still low, the downward space of tin price is limited in the short term, and it is expected to be dominated by wide shocks in the future.

Relevant data:

According to the latest report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on the 21st, there was a supply shortage of 2800 tons in the global tin market from January to August 2021. From January to August 2021, the output of refined tin increased by 30000 tons compared with the same period last year, and the apparent demand increased by 7.5% to 263900 tons compared with the same period last year. In August 2021, the global refined tin output was 29100 tons and the consumption was 29600 tons.