1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first rose and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 141300 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the nickel price rose slightly to 151416.67 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 7.16% and a year-on-year increase of 25.87%. The nickel price has fluctuated upward since it fell to the lowest price of the year on April 21 this year, reaching the highest price of 159866.67 yuan / ton on October 21 this year, also reaching a new high of more than a decade, and then fell slightly.

Macro factors: the market situation is greatly affected by the macro, and the epidemic affects the economy. In order to restore the economy, countries have actively implemented loose monetary policy, and the financial attribute of metals has emerged, boosting the rise of commodity prices.

Global nickel supply tension intensifies

name Reduce production

Vale The output was reduced from 165000 to 170000 tons, lower than the 200000 tons previously predicted.

BHP Billiton Nickel production decreased by 20% in the third quarter

Norilsk Nickel Production decreased by 23%

Indonesia India said last month that it plans to ban or tax the export of nickel ore to keep more metals at home and support the development of Indonesia’s electric vehicle battery industry.

the Philippines Nickel production in 2021 is 10% lower than that in previous years

Nickel market supply shortage: according to the latest report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday, the global nickel market supply shortage was 83100 tons from January to August 2021, while the annual surplus in 2020 was 84200 tons. From January to August 2021, the global nickel output was 1799200 tons and the demand was 1882200 tons, with a shortage of 83100 tons. In addition, from January to August 2021, the global apparent demand for nickel increased by 384000 tons compared with the same period last year; In August 2021, the global nickel output was 258900 tons and the demand was 285900 tons.

Decline in imports: the epidemic continues to have an impact on the supply chain, route congestion in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans, and it is more difficult for consumers to obtain raw materials such as nickel. According to the data of China’s customs, the import of nickel ore decreased by 1.61% month on month and 8.45% year-on-year in September; In September, the import of ferronickel decreased by 12.34% month on month and 10.09% year-on-year; In September, the import of stainless steel decreased by 17.38% month on month, and the export increased by 9.57% month on month.

LME nickel inventory

Nickel industry chain

Downstream: the data of new energy vehicles is strong. Since the second half of this year, the data has been rising continuously, and the sales volume reached a record 357000 in September. Recently, Tesla signed an order for 42000 tons of nickel. The downstream stainless steel plant purchased ferronickel with high profits, and the low inventory supported the price.

High nickel matte has not been delivered: previously, QS industry signed a high nickel matte supply agreement with Huayou cobalt and Zhongwei shares on the afternoon of March 1, 2021. The three parties jointly agreed that QS industry will supply 60000 tons of high nickel matte to Huayou cobalt industry and 40000 tons of high nickel matte to Zhongwei Co., Ltd. within one year from October 2021. Recently, we were asked about the delivery of QS and its high matte nickel on the investor interaction platform. Huayou cobalt said that the purchase business of relevant nickel raw materials will be determined according to the progress of relevant projects and market changes. At present, relevant nickel raw materials have not been delivered. Previously expected

To sum up: the Philippines has entered the rainy season, the supply is becoming more and more tight, and the domestic ferronickel plants are limited by power production restriction. Meanwhile, Vale estimates that the production will be reduced in the fourth quarter, and the supply is expected to tighten. High nickel matte has not been delivered, which supports the nickel price. In the fourth quarter, with consumption gradually weakening and weak supply and demand, it is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate mainly in the range of 140000-155000 yuan / ton in November.