1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of pure benzene fell after a wide rise this week. On October 10, the price of pure benzene was 7950-8550 yuan / ton (average price 8170 yuan / ton), and on Sunday (October 17), the price of pure benzene was 8350-8550 yuan / ton (average price 8440 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 270 yuan / ton, or 3.3%, compared with last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 151.19%.

2、 Analysis and review

During the national day, driven by the news that new units were put into operation in the downstream of Shandong, downstream enterprises invited tenders for many times, the market atmosphere was positive and the enterprise inventory decreased; In addition, crude oil rose broadly, the bulk commodity market rose generally, the pure benzene market rose positively, and the price rose broadly. As styrene stopped rising and turned down, and bulk commodities generally fell, the pure benzene market took profits and the price followed the downward trend. The trading volume in Shandong became lighter and the center of gravity moved down. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene by 400 yuan / ton to 8300-8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market, it fell after rising this week. On Friday (October 15), the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $1012 / T, up US $51 / T, or 5.31%, compared with October 8; The reference import price in East China was US $1065 / T, up US $35 / T or 3.4% month on month on October 8.

In terms of crude oil, global natural gas prices soared, crude oil supply was expected to be tight, energy supply was in short supply in winter, international oil prices rose continuously, and WTI oil prices exceeded US $80 / barrel. On October 8, Brent rose $2.47 / barrel, or 3%; WTI rose $2.93/barrel, or 3.69%.

Downstream: styrene: styrene fell after rising this week. On October 15, the price of sample enterprises was 9920 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.08% over last week and 65.33% over the same period last year. During the week, the price of styrene continued to rise, driven by the continuous rise of crude oil, the general rise of bulk commodities and the rise of pure benzene, which slightly repaired the profit of styrene production.

Aniline: several sets of aniline units operate under reduced load, and the supply of aniline in the spot market is tight; The price of raw materials is rising continuously, and the cost price is high; The downstream delivery mood was stable, and aniline continued to rise during the week. On October 15, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13200-13560 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 13500-13600 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the demand for energy increases in winter, the demand for fuel oil is improving, the global energy supply is tight, the pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the oil price is expected to remain high. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.

Downstream: the main downstream product styrene: raw materials have room for rise in the short term, and the cost side will give strong support to styrene. In addition to the overhaul expectations of shell phase I and Guangzhou Petrochemical in the short term, there is a possibility of demand recovery in the downstream.

Strong support for crude oil and still boost the price of pure benzene; The short-term trend of downstream styrene is expected to be strong. Overall, the trend of pure benzene is expected to stabilize and fluctuate strongly next week. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on the price of pure benzene.