Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea mixed price first rose and then fell this week. The quotation first rose from 3061.67 yuan / ton on October 11 to 3091.67 yuan / ton on October 14, an increase of 0.98%, and then fell to 3058.33 yuan / ton on October 15, a decrease of 1.08%, a year-on-year increase of 81.32%. Overall, the urea market fell slightly this week, and the urea commodity index was 142.25 on October 15.

Cost support was strengthened, downstream demand was enhanced, and urea supply decreased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3150 yuan / ton this weekend, up 50 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 3100 yuan / ton this weekend, up 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Guangzhou Bangyi urea quoted 3000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea rose sharply this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose sharply, and the quotation increased from 5783.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6810.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 17.75%, a year-on-year increase of 134.83% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal rose sharply. The quotation increased from 2045.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2327.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 13.81%, a year-on-year increase of 274.65% compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 5075.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5225.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 2.96%, a year-on-year increase of 63.28% compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea rose sharply this week, from 17900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 18700.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 4.47%.

From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand begins to prepare fertilizer, the industrial demand rises, the demand for urea in the downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply has decreased, and the daily output of urea is about 140000 tons. Internationally: China’s Urea Export began to be limited, or further pushed up the international urea price. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the urea supply is reduced, and the supply is in short supply.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In late October, the domestic urea market rose slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, the industrial demand has increased, and the future market price may fluctuate slightly.