1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price rose sharply this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 74065 yuan / ton, up 5.9% from 69940 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 27.8% from the beginning of the week and 44.14% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has increased by 6 and decreased by 6. Recently, it has fallen more or less.

Macro aspect: in the second half of this week, crude oil hit new highs and the US dollar fell sharply, boosting metal prices.

Supply: in September 2021, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 406000 tons, with a month on month increase of 3.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 43.8%. From January to September 2021, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4019000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.5%, and the average price was 60400 yuan per ton, an increase of 37.9%. Local smelters in Jiangsu will continue to be affected by power rationing, and the capacity utilization rate will be maintained at about 50%

In terms of demand: power rationing in some main copper rod production areas in East and South China will affect the commencement. In September 2021, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 84.32%, an increase of 0.55% month on month. The operating rate of wire and cable enterprises is expected to be 82.32% in October.

LME copper inventories fell this week

Annual comparison chart of copper

According to the annual comparison chart of business society, the price of copper this year is higher than that in recent two years, and the price of copper was strong in October this year.

To sum up, the import of recycled copper dropped sharply, the social inventory fell, and the support below the copper price was strong. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products in September ended the downward trend, boosting the confidence of the copper market. Low inventory in copper market supports the current price. In the near future, it is expected that the short-term fluctuation of copper price is strong, mainly running.