During the week, it lowered 2.63% high shock operation

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on September 30 was 22713.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared with the average market price of 23326.67 yuan / ton on September 24; Compared with the average market price of 21160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (9.1), an increase of 7.34%.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 44.43%.

Energy consumption double control and tight supply

On the supply side, in terms of production, the aluminum output is expected to be 9.56 million tons in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and the annual aluminum output is 38.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%; At the import end, the net import of aluminum ingots from January to July is 923000 tons, and the net import for the whole year is expected to be 1.13 million tons; In terms of dumping and storage, it is expected to dump 490000 tons from June to December; The annual aluminum supply is 40.25 million tons.

Overall, in the fourth quarter, under the background of power shortage and strict implementation of dual control of energy consumption, there is still room for further reduction of electrolytic aluminum production.

The demand is expected to be stable and strong in the fourth quarter

In terms of demand, the growth rate of overseas demand is expected to slow down. At present, aluminum exports will remain relatively high, and inertia is expected to remain in the short term; At home, the inertia of real estate completion is still, the short-term demand is still, the demand for photovoltaic, automobile and other industrial materials is growing, and rail transit, power transmission and transformation are facing a certain reduction. It is estimated that the consumption increment in the fourth quarter will be around 10 million tons, with a growth rate of about 1%; In 2021, the annual consumption was 40.52 million tons, an increase of 6%.

Future expectations

Supply and demand are relatively tight. Although the current price is high and the upward space is narrowed, it is expected that the recent high shock will be the main operation trend.