1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Business Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of March 15th, the spot nickel quotation was 141028.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.47% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 23.38%. Recently, nickel prices have continued to rise due to disruptions in Indonesian nickel mining approval and strong momentum in ternary material orders.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have fallen by 4 and risen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight increase in nickel prices recently.

Nickel industry chain

LME nickel inventory

As shown in the above figure, LME nickel inventory has slightly rebounded recently, with 74178 tons of LME nickel inventory as of the weekend, an increase of 4.26% compared to early February.

On a macro level, the latest data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the US PPI increased by 0.6% month on month in February, marking the largest increase since August 2023. This is mainly driven by the rise in fuel and food prices, further highlighting the continued existence of inflationary pressure. At the same time, lower than expected growth in retail sales data has raised concerns in the market about the sustainability of consumer spending. In this context, the US dollar index remains strong, and market risk appetite shows a certain degree of volatility.

On the supply side, the Surrey Highlands in the Philippines have entered the rainy season, causing the quantity of nickel ore exported to China to remain low. The approval speed of the Work Plan and Budget Report (RKAB) for mineral and coal mining business activities in Indonesia has accelerated.

In terms of demand, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China from January to February were 1.252 million and 1.207 million respectively, an increase of 28.2% and 29.4% year-on-year, with a market share of 30%. Among them, the export of new energy vehicles was 182000, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year. The operating rate of China’s stainless steel production capacity in March was 73.11%, which is at a low level in the same period. However, the production volume of 300 series stainless steel in March was 1.7205 million tons, which is at a high level in the same period. At present, the downstream demand for stainless steel in China is still difficult to be optimistic. The weekly social inventory of 300 series stainless steel has increased to 530000 tons and is at a relatively high historical level, which has led stainless steel traders to proactively reduce prices and ship. But with the continuous introduction of stable real estate policies, it is expected that the newly started and completed areas of the Chinese real estate industry will gradually recover, thereby supporting the demand for stainless steel decorative panels such as elevators and household appliances.

In summary, as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and slows down balance sheet contraction, Indonesia’s approval of nickel mining continues to affect supply, domestic nickel sulfate production losses, and downstream replenishment demand increase, nickel supply expectations are tight, and there is still room for short-term nickel prices to rise. However, domestic electrolytic nickel social inventory has accumulated to a relatively high level, stainless steel social inventory is high, and production is beginning to turn losses, which may suppress demand for nickel iron. It is expected that the short-term rise in nickel prices may slow down.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 14th, the average quoted price of polyethylene glycol 400 by enterprises was 7550.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last Friday (March 8th).

In recent times, the polyethylene glycol market has been mainly stable, with stable cost support. Downstream water reducing agents and printing and dyeing industries are mainly buying on demand. The daily chemical industry has stable demand, and the overall transaction performance of the market is average. As of March 14th, the reference price for some imported PEG400 in the East China market is 7700-7900 yuan/ton, while the reference price for some imported PEG400 in the South China market is 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

Upstream ethylene oxide: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on March 13th, the reference price of ethylene oxide was 6800.00, which was unchanged from March 1st. Recently, upstream ethylene oxide has been operating at a high level, providing strong support for the polyethylene glycol market. The expectation of subsequent equipment maintenance, regional supply or reduction, may continue to support the polyethylene glycol market.

Upstream ethylene glycol: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price of ethylene glycol on March 13th was 4605.00, which is the same as March 1st, and it still provides sufficient support for the polyethylene glycol market.

The polyethylene glycol analyst from Shengyishe believes that the short-term cost side may dominate the market, and market transactions are mainly based on demand. It is expected that the polyethylene glycol market will operate steadily in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream trend of ethylene oxide.

This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained weak and stable. As of March 8th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 14940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.40% compared to the previous week. Last week, the industrial silicon market was mainly weak and stable, mainly due to differences in price expectations between the supply and demand sides. Some silicon companies intend to lower prices to ship, while downstream companies have purchasing intentions, but the pressure on prices is even greater, intensifying the game between the two sides. This also led to an increase in market transactions, but to a lesser extent than expected. The performance of spot transactions was average, so downstream buyers held a bearish sentiment and purchased on demand. Therefore, last week’s weak and stable operation of industrial silicon was the main focus

On the 23rd, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14700~14900 yuan/ton, with an average of 14800 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 14700-14900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 14800 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14600~14800 yuan/ton, with an average of 14700 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15300~15600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15450 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of March 7th, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 323, with an overall furnace opening rate of 43.07%, an increase of 3 compared to last week. Among them, Xinjiang has increased 7 furnaces, Yunnan has decreased 4 furnaces, Sichuan has decreased 1 furnace, Gansu has increased 2 furnaces, and Guizhou has decreased 1 furnace. Last week, the number of industrial silicon furnaces increased slightly, with some manufacturers in the northwest adding new furnaces. However, the number of new furnaces added at low prices was lower than expected, and some manufacturers in the southwest underwent early maintenance; Xinjiang’s production capacity continues to resume, and the number of furnaces started in Xinjiang is close to the high point before the environmental protection power restriction and shutdown, indicating a trend towards abundant supply. The cost in the southwestern production area is inverted, and the willingness to start construction is relatively low.

In terms of inventory:

As of March 8th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 359000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 103000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to last week’s month on month, while the social delivery warehouse was 256000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), which remained unchanged compared to last week’s month on month.

In terms of demand:

Last week, the price of polycrystalline silicon remained stable, and the ramp up of new production capacity drove an increase in industrial silicon consumption, but the release of procurement demand was limited. Currently, terminal procurement is generally cautious, and silicon wafer companies have accumulated inventory and are concerned about future demand, resulting in price competition. At present, some newly added polysilicon production capacity is still climbing, which continues to increase the consumption of industrial silicon. However, in recent times, the release of polysilicon’s demand for industrial silicon procurement has been slow, and the support for industrial silicon prices is relatively limited.

Last week, the price of organic silicon stabilized and the price of aluminum alloy slightly increased. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was around 16220 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC stabilized after a large increase in the early stage, and the downstream has a good acceptance of the current price. After concentrated trading in the market, it tended to stabilize. The current organic silicon industry has seen a slight increase in production, and there is also an increase in demand for industrial silicon. However, regardless of the company’s maintenance plans, the support of organic silicon for industrial silicon is still unstable in the near future. The current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is around 20000 yuan/ton. The production of aluminum alloy enterprises has further increased, and the improvement of downstream orders has driven the procurement of industrial silicon for aluminum alloys. However, overall, the demand increment is limited.

Future Market Forecast

In summary, on the supply side, silicon plants resumed production in March, and the overall operating rate continued to gradually increase. However, in some areas, the operating rate did not meet expectations, but the overall supply situation increased; On the demand side, with the resumption of industry production, downstream silicon factory replenishment procurement will also gradually increase. The demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is in a stable growth trend, and there may be a release of concentrated replenishment demand in the later stage, with a pre increase in demand release. Social inventory is stabilizing, and there is not much pressure on total inventory. At present, the supply and demand side may turn into a situation of double increase in supply and demand, with the fundamentals favorable for the upward trend of silicon prices. However, downstream procurement is more strong, and the futures market has weakened recently. There is a possibility of weakening cost support, and the space for silicon price increase is limited. It is expected that industrial silicon will slightly decline this week and operate weakly and steadily.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the acrylonitrile market has seen a slight increase. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 11th, the bulk water price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9637 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% from 9512 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At present, the mainstream price for self extraction of acrylonitrile from tanks in the market is between 9500 to 9800 yuan/ton. The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, and the cost supports acrylonitrile; Downstream ABS production has slightly increased at a low level, providing some support for acrylonitrile; The supply side of the acrylonitrile unit is generally loose, and some units have maintenance plans in the future.

Recently (3.1-3.11), there has been a slight fluctuation in the operation of domestic acrylonitrile units.

Recently (3.1-3.11), the propylene market for raw materials has slightly increased, supported by the cost of acrylonitrile. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of March 11th, the domestic propylene price was 7020 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.18% from 6870 yuan/ton on the first day.

It is understood that since March, downstream ABS production has slightly increased to around 6.80%, but overall it is still at a low level, providing weak support for demand for acrylonitrile; The production of acrylic yarn has increased to nearly 50%, and the production of acrylic fiber has remained stable at around 70%. The demand for acrylic nitrile is mainly in demand; Stable operation of nitrile rubber and stable support for acrylonitrile; The production of polyacrylamide gradually increased to around 4.6% after the holiday; Overall, there has been slight support from downstream for acrylonitrile since March.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that the supply of acrylonitrile is loose, but some devices have maintenance plans in the later stage; The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased; In the short term, the demand side will provide some support for acrylonitrile, and overall, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate and rise in the future.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price of para xylene has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8600 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.18%.

The domestic supply of xylene is stable, and the domestic PX operating rate is maintained at over 80%. The operation of the Pengzhou petrochemical plant is stable, but there are still some units undergoing maintenance, and there is sufficient spot supply. This week, the international crude oil price range fluctuated, and PX external prices have decreased. As of the 7th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 977-979 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1002-1004 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

This week’s international crude oil prices have fluctuated, and overall, crude oil prices have slightly increased. As of the 7th, the closing price of US WTI crude oil futures was $78.93 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures closed at $82.96 per barrel. The crude oil market has seen a slight increase this week. On the one hand, geopolitical risk factors have become the main driving force behind the rise in crude oil. The warming geopolitical situation has further pushed up the risk premium of crude oil. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has stated that it will not cut interest rates temporarily, which will provide some support for international oil prices. The range of crude oil prices is fluctuating, and the domestic market price trend for xylene is stable.

The domestic PTA spot market trend has declined, with an average price of 5843 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the weekend, a decrease of 1.80% from the beginning of the week price of 5950 yuan/ton. From the recent changes in PTA’s own equipment, the industry’s operating rate has remained stable around 82%. In addition, a large number of PTA cargo sources are concentrated in ports, resulting in overall inventory accumulation. Although downstream polyester production gradually rebounded, factories had sufficient stock before the holiday, and there was a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the PTA market after the holiday, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, resulting in a decline in the PTA market. At present, the operating load of the downstream polyester industry has increased to over 80%. With the comprehensive resumption of work and production in the polyester and downstream weaving industries, there will be a lot of room for improvement in the operating rate. As a result, the price trend of the PX market is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at Business Society, believes that there is sufficient supply of domestic PX, and the upstream crude oil market is a long short game. Overall, the crude oil price range fluctuates, and the downstream PTA unit operation has not changed much. However, with the gradual restart of the textile industry, the downstream polyester operation load has increased, and the end demand continues to start. The combined influence of long and short factors is expected to be mainly affected by the price fluctuations in the xylene market in the later period.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of February 29th, the price of PET water bottle grade has mainly declined narrowly. The current average price is 7220.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.82% compared to the same period last week. This week’s decline is about 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to the same period last month. Currently, the mainstream price is around 7300 yuan/ton, and the overall market supply and demand are balanced.

This week, domestic PET prices have slightly declined, with a decrease of 0.82% compared to the same period last week. International crude oil prices have been in a downward trend this week, with weak fluctuations in raw materials, lack of support on the cost side, and insufficient upward momentum. Downstream customers have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the procurement atmosphere is not good. Manufacturers are actively shipping, and the market trading atmosphere is stagnant. The overall market price has been narrow and volatile, and operators are cautious in their operations.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On February 28, the rubber and plastic index was 682 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 35.66% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 29.17% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that there is limited upward space in the PET market in the short term, with mainstream prices remaining around 7300 yuan/to

n.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart, it can be seen that the price trend of para xylene in February has declined. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.99% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 1.18%.

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. However, some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. In February, the international crude oil price range fluctuated, and PX external prices did not change much. As of the 28th, the closing prices in Asia were 1013-1015 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1038-1040 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region is normal, and the domestic xylene market prices have slightly decreased.

In February, the international crude oil price range fluctuated, and overall, crude oil prices slightly increased. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $78.54 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $82.15 per barrel. The trend of the crude oil market in February slightly increased. On the one hand, geopolitical risk factors have become the main driving force behind the rise of crude oil, and the geopolitical situation has heated up, further pushing up the risk premium of crude oil. On the other hand, the expected reduction in production by oil producing countries provides strong support for international oil prices. However, the significant increase in US crude oil inventories has limited the increase in crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices in February was not significant, and the decline in domestic xylene market prices was limited.

The domestic PTA spot market has slightly declined, with an average price of 5951 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the end of the month, a decrease of 0.72% from the price of 5994 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. From the recent changes in PTA’s own equipment, the industry’s operating rate remains around 82.5%, but there is still pressure from sufficient supply of goods. Downstream polyester production load is 80%, and the polyester filament market is cautious and cautious, with terminal orders not yet initiated. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving continues to be at a low level of around 20%, and downstream demand for terminals has not improved. As a result, the PX market trend has declined.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that there is not much change in the domestic PX supply. The upstream crude oil market is a long short game, and overall, crude oil prices have slightly increased. The downstream PTA plant operation has not changed much, but with the gradual restart of the textile industry, the downstream polyester operation load has increased, and end demand continues to start. It is expected that the market price of xylene will rise in the later stage.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic vitamin market maintained a strong trend in February, but the momentum was insufficient, and the continued upward momentum was limited.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the price of vitamin C increased in February, with a price of 21 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 21.67 yuan/kg on the 29th, with a monthly increase of 3.19%. The vitamin C market is supported by the export market, with upstream prices rising while downstream acceptance is still acceptable, with significant resistance to further increases.

The price of vitamin A continued to rise in February, with an average price of 77 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 81 yuan/kg at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 5.04%. The current mainstream market quotation is around 82-85 yuan/kg, and the European market quotation is 19-20.5 euros/kg. The price of vitamin A in Europe has stabilized after rising, with all the positive news coming out. On exchange inquiries are active, with relatively few transactions, and downstream acceptance is still acceptable. In terms of production, some factories have parked but not opened, resulting in a favorable supply side.

In February, the price of vitamin E increased, with the mainstream market price around 65-68 yuan/kg. The European market quotation is 6.8-7.2 euros per kilogram. Recently, there have been many maintenance plans in China, with a favorable supply side and a strong willingness to raise prices upstream, which has provided some support for price increases.

Future Market Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believe that the current positive news in the vitamin market is exhausted, and there is insufficient upward momentum. The market lacks effective positive support, and we will closely monitor market trends and changes in enterprise production in the future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and increased in February. The market price of isobutyraldehyde increased from 8466.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8850 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.53%, with a year-on-year increase of 18% at the end of the month. On February 28th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 44.92, an increase of 0.33 points from yesterday, a decrease of 57.45% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 49.14% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde saw a slight increase in prices in February, and their inventory levels were average. The factory price of Lihua Yiisobutyraldehyde at the end of the month is 8750 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; The market price of isobutyraldehyde in Luxi at the end of the month was 8500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 500 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month; The end of month factory price of Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde is 9300 yuan/ton, which is an increase of 500 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month.

Increased upstream support and better downstream demand

From a cost perspective, the propylene market rose first and then fell in February, with an overall slight increase. At the beginning of the month, the price of propylene fell to a low point, and downstream investors entered the market on dips, resulting in an increase in trading volume and a wave of increase in propylene prices. After the holiday, downstream demand fell short of expectations and some inventory was mainly consumed. Upstream goods flow is not smooth, and prices are under pressure and declining. At the end of the month, due to the increase in prices of some downstream products and propylene, profits rebounded, driving downstream active entry into the market and slightly increasing propylene prices.

From the demand side, the downstream market for new pentanediol saw a slight increase in February. The market price of neopentyl glycol has increased from 10200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 10475 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.70%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 5.06% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to early March, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The downstream market for new pentanediol has slightly increased, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isobutyraldehyde. The upstream propylene market is showing an upward trend, with increased cost support. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the product trend is on the rise. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and increases due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

In February 2024, the domestic liquid ammonia market emerged from a rebound after a decline, with a decline at the beginning of the month, stable operation in mid month, and a rebound in the market after the holiday in late October. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded a decline in February, with a decline of 8.55%.

At the beginning of the month, liquid ammonia continued its volatile downward trend in January. The main reason is that the supply in Shandong region has increased, and some of the faulty enterprises have resumed operation. The changes in production are mainly concentrated in Shandong, Hebei, and the two lakes, affecting the northern and central plains regions. The expected supply performance is loose. The influx of a large number of imported goods into the port has had an impact on the domestic liquid ammonia market. Shandong has repeatedly lowered factory prices in collaboration with large factories in Hebei, Hubei and other regions in the early days, with a cumulative reduction of over 500 yuan/ton in the first week of February.

In the middle of the month, the market gradually stopped falling and stabilized, mainly due to the easing of supply pressure. On the one hand, some devices in the main production areas of the north have been affected in terms of operation, and under the influence of environmental protection, the operating rate has been affected, leading to a decline in production. And there are devices in the Central Plains region that delay resuming production. The performance of the market demand is still good, with an increase in new orders and improved supply and demand, which has stabilized the ammonia market. However, as the Chinese New Year approaches and trading is light, the ammonia market has not rebounded.

In the latter half of the year, liquid ammonia experienced a rebound, mainly due to the tight supply performance in the northern main production areas, which was supported by tight supply. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and some areas are affected by rainy and snowy weather, which has led to a shortage of market supply in the short term. There is a common phenomenon of vehicles queuing up for goods in production enterprises. After the holiday, downstream procurement has also recovered, and the combination of the two has led to a significant rebound in the ammonia market. Manufacturers have raised their prices multiple times, with a cumulative increase of over 300 yuan/ton in the latter half of the year. The dealer’s offer naturally skyrocketed. But the market did not continue until the end of the month. In the last week of February, the market supply and demand tended to balance, and prices also returned to stability.

Future Market Forecast

According to liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society, there is still a local tense atmosphere in the market on the supply side, but with the resumption of work on some devices, the supply may be favorable or exhausted in the later stage. On the demand side, there are certain expectations. The demand for the Spring Festival will gradually recover, and the demand for agriculture will increase to a certain extent. In addition, large factories are generally holding up prices, and there may still be some upward space for liquid ammonia in the later stage, with strong rigidity as the main factor.