This week, the liquidity of benzene Market in Asia was good. As the price difference between FOB Korea and DDP USG widened, the buying interest was boosted. It was said that traders were interested in the opportunity of trans Pacific goods transfer.

Since the beginning of this week, the value of May’s cargo has risen, from $821.50 per ton on March 29 to $866 per ton on April 1.

Benzene continued to rise, contrary to the price trend of crude oil market, which fell on March 31. As a result, the source was surprised by the strong performance of FOB Korea, adding that the usual reference relationship between fixed, floating and bill pricing is not applicable at present, and that the monthly price spread fluctuates too much to define the large range of floating value in May.

An East China trader also pointed out that with the narrowing of the FOB South Korea CFR China price gap, it is logical to shift the FOB South Korea supply to the United States rather than China. However, demand for CFR China has been growing due to an increase in new downstream projects and a decline in inventory levels, which is likely to compete for Asian supply in the coming weeks.

DDP USG hit a 39 month high

The US benzene price rebounded, hitting a nearly 39 month high on March 31, with a spot value of US $958 / T based on DDP. In the early stage, the monthly value is 10 cents lower than that of the prompt month. It is heard that many transactions are closed at 928 US dollars / ton. In addition to the rise in spot prices, participants expect the US benzene contract price to rise in April. Some sources expect that the settlement price of us benzene contract in April will rise to nearly 898 US dollars per ton from 802 US dollars per ton in March.

Participants pointed out that the demand of styrene downstream market improved, the supply side was tight, and the fundamentals were favorable.

Demand for styrene has picked up in the United States as many producers have brought their plants back online after planned and unplanned outages. It is reported that cosmar and leandbasel have restarted styrene production after planned maintenance. If the annual comprehensive capacity of ethylbenzene (EB) is 2.772 million tons, the demand for benzene is expected to be slightly less than 171000 tons / month.

Benlin restarted the EB unit in beport last weekend, according to a document.

In addition to the increase in demand, affected by the extremely cold weather along the Gulf coast of the United States in mid February, many refineries and chemical producers went offline, resulting in lower benzene production.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business association, on April 2, the average price of salicylic acid (industrial grade) from the mainstream manufacturers was 14466.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, down 5.65% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Salicylic acid market is relatively calm this week, the price change is not much. The price of raw material phenol tends to be stable, but the price is still at a high level with acceptable support. The export and domestic sales are relatively stable. The attitude of the industry is relatively calm, and the price fluctuation is not much. It is prudent to wait and see the market reaction, and follow the market. The short-term price is not easy to change greatly. As of April 2, the quotations of salicylic acid industrial grade enterprises are mostly in the range of 13000-15000 yuan / ton, pharmaceutical grade enterprises are mostly in the range of 23000-25600 yuan / ton, with stable quotations, and sublimation grade enterprises are mostly in the range of 15000-20000 yuan / ton, with stable quotations.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic phenol market was temporarily stable. On April 1, the reference price of phenol was 8540.00, down 1.16% compared with March 1 (8640.00). The downstream bisphenol a continued to maintain a high level of support, reaching 26400 yuan / ton, and the market supply was extremely scarce; other downstream still just needed inquiry, and the supply and shipment were flat. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will be strong.

On April 2, the market of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose. The price of sulfur in the upper reaches of Shandong Province was high recently, and the cost support was good. However, the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches was general, the supply of sulfuric acid was normal, and the ex factory price of sulfuric acid in the future fluctuated slightly.

On April 1, the salicylic acid commodity index was 86.11, flat with yesterday, down 14.40% from the highest point of 100.60 in the cycle (2011-09-19), and up 20.55% from the lowest point of 71.43 on March 29, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

3、 Future forecast

Salicylic acid analysts of business news agency think: at present, the raw materials are in high consolidation, the supporting force is acceptable, the downstream demand is relatively stable, the export and domestic markets are relatively calm, the manufacturers are in high starting position, and the pressure is not great. It is expected that the market will be stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline in East China rose this week, while the price in Shandong was adjusted, according to the data from the business club’s block list. On March 21, the price of aniline in Shandong was 14000-15500 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 13500 yuan / ton. On March 28, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13900-14000 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 14000 yuan / ton. The average price was 2.33% lower than last week, 77.22% higher than the beginning of the year, and 133.98% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, this week, pure benzene continued to follow the trend of crude oil and styrene, and the price fell. This week, the pure benzene port inventory continued to decline. At present, the replenishment at the end of March is limited, and it is still in the channel to the warehouse. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton to 6350 yuan / ton, and the listed price of some refineries in North China was reduced by 350 yuan / ton to 6150 yuan / ton. On Sunday (March 28), the price of pure benzene was 5953-6350 yuan / ton (average price was 6280 yuan / ton), which was 2.64% lower than that of last week and 108.64% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid remained stable during the week. On Friday (March 26), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 2050 yuan / ton, up 2.5% from the beginning of the month and 28.12% from the same period last year.

The price difference between aniline and pure benzene widened, and the profit margin of aniline was better. Jinling Dongying 200000 t / a aniline plant and Huatai 100000 t / a aniline plant were shut down for maintenance. The enterprises in East China mainly prepare shipping goods, and the spot goods are less released. In addition, driven by the high price of aniline in Shandong, the price of aniline in East China rose to 14000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. However, the downstream follow-up of high price aniline was general, and the aniline Market was stable in the second half of the week.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost, the current trend of crude oil and styrene has a significant impact on the trend of pure benzene, and it is expected that the short-term pure benzene will still follow the market fluctuation of crude oil and styrene. With the entrance of new styrene plant, the demand for pure benzene has a certain support. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

There are many aniline plants in Shandong Province for maintenance, and the spot supply is tight. It is expected that the high price of aniline will remain strong in the short term, but there is a possibility of a high callback. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, the follow-up of downstream demand and the dynamic of aniline plant.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is mainly stable for the time being. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average market price is about 490 yuan / ton, down 9.68% compared with the same period last year. On March 28, the commodity index of caustic soda was 70.50, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.92% from 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 8.28% from 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Caustic soda fluctuates in a narrow range, and the market operation is dominant. In Shandong area, caustic soda is mainly put into consolidation operation. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 390-500 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is tepid, the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda fluctuates in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 460-600 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is general, and the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future. Jiangsu market is about 550-650 yuan / ton, Guangdong market is about 640-650 yuan / ton.

The market performance of liquid chlorine in the upstream of caustic soda is fair this week, and the demand in the downstream is supported. Generally speaking, it will be mainly operated in the later stage or strongly. From the downstream of caustic soda to the end of demand, aluminum, paper and other industries adhere to the demand-based procurement, a strong wait-and-see attitude.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 12th week of 2021 (3.22-3.26), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 3 kinds of commodities falling, and 2 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 8.91%), PVC (- 2.79%) and hydrochloric acid (- 2.44%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.83%.

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the caustic soda enterprises are not warm in shipment, and the downstream receiving situation is weak and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to fluctuate slightly in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

In March 2021, affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption in Inner Mongolia, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China soared, with the highest price exceeding 5100 yuan / ton. Later, affected by the parking and maintenance of PVC downstream, the price dropped all the way. As can be seen from the above figure, the average ex factory quotation price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China rose from 3566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of March to 5150.00 yuan / ton on March 18, up by 1583.33 yuan / ton, or 44.39%. As of March 29, the price of calcium carbide was 4300.00 yuan / ton, which decreased by 850 yuan / ton or 16.50% compared with that on March 18. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 62.47%. On the whole, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose first and then fell in March, and the price fluctuated greatly. The commodity index of calcium carbide on March 28 was 120.52.

2、 Trend analysis

（1） Upstream:

As can be seen from the above figure, the upstream market of calcium carbide in March: the price of coke in Shanxi fell all the way in March. The quoted price dropped from 2560.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1960 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a drop of 600 yuan / ton or 23.44%. Compared with last year, it increased by 25.37%. The price of upstream raw materials fell and the support of calcium carbide cost was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of calcium carbide was negatively affected.

（2） Downstream:

As can be seen from the above figure, the downstream market of calcium carbide in March: the PVC market fluctuated in a narrow range in March. The average ex factory quotation price of PVC first dropped from 8750.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 8575.00 yuan / ton on March 5, a decrease of 2.00%, then rose to 8962.50 yuan / ton on March 17, an increase of 4.52%, and finally fell to 8737.50 yuan / ton on March 29, a decrease of 2.51%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 50.97%. The high consolidation of the downstream market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

As a by-product of PVC by calcium carbide process, the ex factory price of caustic soda rose slightly in March. The average ex factory price of caustic soda rose from 457.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 490.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 32.50 yuan / ton or 7.1%, and a year-on-year decrease of 9.68%. The price of caustic soda rose this month, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

（3） Products:

In March, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose first and then fell.

（4） Policy:

In Inner Mongolia, the policy of “double control of energy consumption” was strict, and it became normal for calcium carbide plants to limit electricity and shut down. As a result, the supply of calcium carbide dropped sharply, and it was difficult to get a single product of calcium carbide in the market. At that time, the demand for PVC rose sharply, and the price of calcium carbide rose steadily, ushering in a 10-year high. “Double control of energy consumption” policy still showed no sign of easing at the end of the month.

3、 Future forecast

At the end of this month, with the resumption of large foreign PVC factories, domestic PVC factories began to stop for maintenance, the demand for calcium carbide was no longer as before, and the price of calcium carbide dropped again and again. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may drop slightly in early April.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the external price of ethylene has dropped recently. On March 24, the price was 1145.25 US dollars / ton, and on March 26, the average price of ethylene was 1121.50 US dollars / ton, down 2.07%. The current price has increased by 2.65% month on month, and the current price has increased by 97.53% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend. As of the 25th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1047-1055 per ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $992-1000 per ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and fell. As of the 25th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1219-1233 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1199-1208 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States dropped slightly, reaching US $1216-1229 per ton as of the 25th. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, the United States and Asia showed a slight downward trend. Generally speaking, the external market of ethylene is cold and the market tends to go down.

International: on March 25, international oil prices fell, and the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was $58.56/barrel, down $2.62 or 4.68%. Brent crude oil futures market settlement price of the main contract was $61.80/barrel, down $2.45 or 3.81%. Previously, oil prices rebounded sharply due to the news that the huge container ship blocked the Suez Canal. Although the ship has not completely extricated itself from the predicament, the market has now got rid of the influence of channel blockage. Oil prices recovered most of their gains yesterday. At present, the market focuses on the negative effect of the blockade measures to prevent and control the epidemic in Europe on economic recovery.

On March 25, the styrene market as a whole rose steadily. Boosted by the news of production reduction or temporary maintenance of some devices, night styrene futures continued to rise sharply, with be2105 closing at 8177, up 2.15%, increasing 833 positions, boosting the market mentality of today’s styrene spot market. In the aspect of equipment, the investment of new production capacity is offset by the reduction of equipment maintenance capacity. To sum up, the cost of styrene has moved down, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, the replenishment at the end of the month, the maintenance of the plant, and the mixing of air and air are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term.

Ethylene analysts of business society chemical branch think: at present, in terms of crude oil, a new round of blockade of cruise ships by many countries has inhibited the growth of crude oil demand, crude oil is on a downward trend, and the cost is difficult to support the ethylene market. Therefore, data analysts of business society expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall in the following direction.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business society (average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), on March 19, the mainstream average price of PVC in China was 8725 yuan / ton, up 2.72% from the beginning of the week, 17.54% from the beginning of the month, and 44.85% from the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the PVC market rose sharply to a new high. The futures and spot prices both rose to more than 9000 yuan / ton, officially stepping into the era of 9000 yuan, and the focus moved to a high level. This week’s price rise was mainly supported by strong cost, strong external price, favorable supply and demand and other factors, which jointly boosted the PVC market. At the beginning of the week, the PVC market was in full swing. The price in most areas of the spot market was increased by about 200-350 yuan / ton, and the price rapidly rose to more than 9000 yuan / ton. The futures price also rose to a new high in the past decade. It can be said that the rising trend was rapid, but the upward momentum continued to be insufficient. In the middle of the week, the rising trend of PVC slowed down, and the fluctuation was adjusted.

At present, the price of raw material calcium carbide has risen by more than 40% since March, and the price is more than 5000 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than that of the same period last year. Moreover, the supply of PVC is tight. Some PVC enterprises reduce the load to ease the pressure of cost. With the superposition of device maintenance, the on-site supply is declining, which is good for PVC upward. Meanwhile, the international supply gap is still in place, and the PVC export is better. The latest quotation adjustment of Formosa Plastics Co., Ltd In addition, the downstream products industry is gradually recovering, continuing to maintain the just needed procurement, with general enthusiasm for high price PVC procurement, and some small and medium-sized enterprises may have cost inversion phenomenon. However, as the market gradually enters the peak season, the demand side support is expected to increase. On the whole, PVC fundamentals are good, plus superposition, short-term correction is also a digestion stage after the rise, the price trend is still strong.

Spot, 19 domestic pvc5 calcium carbide mainstream quotation range in 8800-9050 yuan / ton around. The main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in East China is 8750-8950 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in North China is 8900-9000 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in South China is 8850-8950 yuan / ton, the main stream of pvc5 calcium carbide in Central China is 8850-9000 yuan / ton, and the price of pvc5 calcium carbide in Southwest China is 8800-8950 yuan / ton.

In terms of futures, this week’s futures hit a new high in nearly 10 years, driving the spot trend up to 9280. On the 19th, the main PVC futures contract 2105 opened at 8910 yuan / ton and closed at 8770 yuan / ton. Yesterday’s settlement price was 9085 yuan / ton, down 3.47%. The trading range was 8720-8960 yuan / ton, with 692631 transactions and 303026 positions.

Regional varieties March 19, 2007

Changzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8950-9000 yuan / ton

Guangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8850-8950 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 8850-8980 yuan / ton

Hangzhou ﹣ PVC ﹣ calcium carbide method ﹣ 8850-8950 yuan / ton

The price of upstream crude oil fell for five consecutive trading days. On Thursday, the price of crude oil fell by more than 7% in a single day. On March 19, the price of WTI crude oil futures market rose. The settlement price of the main contract was 61.44 US dollars per barrel, up 1.38 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract was $64.35/barrel, or $1.32. Oil prices rose more than 2% on Friday after concerns about the slowdown of economic recovery triggered by a new round of epidemic in Europe suppressed the decline of oil prices. Crude oil was sold off in a large area. At present, the market is gradually returning to rationality, stopping the decline and rebounding. At present, concerns about vaccination and potential side effects in Europe are slowing down, and oil prices turn bullish.

On March 19, the reference price of ethylene was 1164.75, up 5.43% from March 1 (1104.75). At present, crude oil: the uncertainty of crude oil demand has hit the market enthusiasm, crude oil is on a downward trend, and the cost is difficult to support the ethylene market, so business community data analysts predict that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall next.

On March 19, the reference price of calcium carbide was 5116.67, up 43.46% from March 1 (3566.67). The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has risen slightly recently, with higher prices compared with the same period last year. The downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide, and the market demand exceeds supply. The main reason for the rise of calcium carbide in Inner Mongolia is the double control of energy consumption, power limit and furnace shutdown, and the calcium carbide will fluctuate slightly in the future.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business news agency believe that the price of raw material calcium carbide has risen sharply and the supply is tight, the cost support is strong, the external market is strong, the maintenance is good, and the downstream demand toughness is still positive, and the fundamentals are still good. At the present stage, it mainly digests the early growth, and it is expected that the PVC trend is still strong, and the price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

The impact of the international crude oil market on the $70 / barrel line failed, and the trend of the crude oil market turned downward. At present, the asphalt market is in the off-season, the supply and demand of asphalt are weak, and the asphalt market price will follow the crude oil price. According to the price monitoring data of the business association, the price of asphalt was reported at 3223 yuan / ton on March 19. At present, the overall price of asphalt market is stable, and some regions have started to fall.

On the demand side, March is still the off-season of domestic asphalt market demand. Recently, northern China has experienced sandstorm and cold spring weather. In southern China, rainy weather is in the majority. At present, the operating rate of terminal projects remains low, and the release of rigid demand for asphalt is limited. In addition, crude oil prices have plummeted, and the bearish sentiment of asphalt market is becoming stronger, so the overall asphalt market is still in a weak demand state. On the supply side, before the Spring Festival, the asphalt plant of each refinery was shut down for maintenance, and the asphalt plant operation rate remained at a low level; so far, the asphalt operation rate has not rebounded significantly, and the asphalt operation rate in Shandong is at a low level of about 26%. According to the data, China’s asphalt production continued to decline to 2.1168 million tons in February, down 443 million tons on a month on month basis. Compared with 3 million tons in the same period of 2019, it is down by about 29%. At present, the domestic asphalt market is weak in both supply and demand. The market price follows the change of international crude oil price.

According to business news agency monitoring, oil prices have been falling for five consecutive trading days. At the macro level, due to the release of water from the Federal Reserve and central banks, inflation expectations continued to rise, US bond yields rose, and the prices of risky assets such as stock markets and commodities were suppressed. On Thursday, the market’s expectation of inflation intensified and the tide of US debt selling hit. The yield of 10-year US debt rose to more than 1.7% for the first time in 14 months. The strengthening of the US dollar led to the decline of the stock index and the sharp drop of oil price. In addition, the pace of global economic recovery was once again dragged down by the epidemic. This time, it mainly came from the European region. The European vaccination process was blocked, which led to the expectation of slower economic recovery, Oil prices are under pressure. WTI and Brent crude oil fell to two-week lows one after another. WTI closed below US $60. WTI crude oil hit the biggest one-day decline in the second half of the year.

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of business news agency, believes that: under the situation of weak supply and demand in asphalt market, the price of asphalt market is following the decline, and the trend of crude oil is obvious. The sharp drop of international crude oil price on March 18 is bound to lower the price center of domestic asphalt market. It is expected that the domestic asphalt price will enter a downward channel in the near future.

From March 8 to December 2021, the market price of crude benzene increased slightly. The domestic ex factory price was 4607 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 4695 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly rise of 1.91%.

In March 2023, Sinopec did not adjust the price of 6750 yuan / ton of pure benzene.

Coking enterprises started well this week. At present, they have sufficient profits and good production enthusiasm. Affected by the wide fluctuation trend of crude oil this week, the price of pure benzene fluctuated mainly, the price fluctuated frequently, and the market enthusiasm was poor. This week, the crude benzol auction situation, bidding price increased slightly.

The overall operation rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is stable at about 70%, with a slight increase in overall operation. Most of the units are in normal operation, and the demand for crude benzene is relatively stable. At present, the price difference of crude benzene hydrogenation benzene is more reasonable, the profits of hydrogenation benzene enterprises are improved, and the production and sales of enterprises are active.

In the future, the business association thinks that the price difference between crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene is reasonable, and the profit margin of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is better than that in the earlier stage. It is expected that the demand for crude benzene in the future is fair, and the price of crude benzene will fluctuate slightly.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the acetic anhydride market continued to rise in March, and the price of acetic anhydride continued to rise. As of March 12, the price of acetic anhydride was 9550.00 yuan / ton, up 2.69% compared with 9300.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (March 1). The cost of acetic anhydride continued to rise, and the market of acetic anhydride remained high.

Acetic acid price trend

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid, in March, the price of acetic acid rose and maintained stability. In March, Hualu Hengsheng acetic acid equipment resumed operation, domestic acetic acid raw material supply increased, acetic acid rising momentum weakened, acetic acid market high firm, acetic anhydride cost high firm, acetic anhydride market rising momentum still exists.

Methanol price trend

From the methanol price trend chart, we can see that in March, the methanol price first stabilized and then rose, the methanol price rose steadily, the acetic anhydride cost rose steadily, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rise increased.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that the acetic acid price rose in March and then stabilized strongly, the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened, and the acetic anhydride market stabilized, but the methanol price rose steadily in March, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the rising power of acetic anhydride increased. Overall, in March, the raw material prices of acetic anhydride fluctuated, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the market of acetic anhydride remained high. In the future, with the price of acetic acid and methanol stabilized, the cost of raw materials for acetic anhydride stabilized, and the rising power of acetic anhydride weakened. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will stabilize strongly in the future.