1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, on June 14, the average ex factory price of 55 powdered monoammonium was 2616 yuan / ton, and on June 18, the average ex factory price of 2616 yuan / ton, which was stable this week.

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the average ex factory price of 64% granular diammonium on June 14 was 3266 yuan / ton, and that on June 18 was 3316 yuan / ton, up 1.53% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of map was stable this week. At present, the supply of monoammonium phosphate is relatively small, and most enterprises have no quotation for the time being. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium is 3000-3100 yuan / ton, and that of 58% powdered ammonium is about 3100 yuan / ton. On Monday, the operating rate of ammonium enterprises was about 69%, which was stable compared with last week. Some enterprises are still in the process of shutdown and maintenance.

The price of DAP rose this week. The export market atmosphere is good, the waiting volume is large, and the supply of goods is tight. Most enterprises have no quotation for the time being, and some enterprises stop for maintenance. On Tuesday, the operating rate of ammonium enterprises was about 50%, lower than that of last week.

As of June 18, the average reference price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas of China was around 510 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on June 14. This week, the domestic phosphorus ore market as a whole continued to run high and stable.

3、 Future forecast

Business community ammonium phosphate analysts believe that the current amount of ammonium phosphate to be more, most enterprises do not take orders. DAP export market demand is more, supply is not much, market trend is good. It is expected that the price of map will run smoothly in the short term and the price of DAP will continue to rise.

According to the business news agency, the price of activated carbon was 9133 yuan / ton at the beginning of this week, and 9066 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a price drop of 0.73%.

At present, the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9000-12500 yuan / ton; The market atmosphere of activated carbon is cold and the delivery is normal, and the transaction price is mainly discussed (the specifications and properties of activated carbon are complicated, and the price can not be generalized, please consult the manufacturer for details).

The raw materials of activated carbon are rich, including coal, sawdust, fruit shell, straw, etc.

Forecast: in the short term, the price of activated carbon will continue to be weak, the atmosphere of wait-and-see in the downstream will be obvious, and the overall market transaction will be weak.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of the mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride this week is 2625.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 83.33 on June 11.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend sales offer 2850 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of June, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

The price of ethylene oxide has remained stable since the end of last month when it was reduced by 800 yuan. At present, the ex factory price is 6900 yuan / ton.

As for raw materials, affected by downstream PE demand and regional bearish attitude, ethylene price has entered a downward cycle. As of today, the latest external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is 955 US dollars / ton, down 70 US dollars / ton compared with the beginning of the month, down 6.83%. The external price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 915 US dollars / ton, down 55 US dollars / ton compared with the beginning of the month, down 5.67%, Ethylene oxide is in deficit. At present, the supply of ethylene oxide is rather tight. Sipang is expected to be overhauled in July. Jinyan is still in a state of shutdown. Shanghai Petrochemical Company has not yet restarted. Satellite Petrochemical Company is in low-load operation. However, since April, the terminal demand has been weak. With the gradual announcement of entering Mei by southern provinces, the impact of rainwater on the infrastructure industry in East China can not be ignored, Industry insiders cannot push up expectations.

To digest the decline and stabilize temporarily, we need to pay close attention to the changes in terminal demand and ethylene market.

The market price of antimony ingots in East China is temporarily stable from May 31 to June 4, 2021, with the price of 54750 yuan / ton.

The antimony commodity index was 76.22 on June 5, which was flat with yesterday, down 25.51% from the highest point 102.32 (2012-10-16) in the period, up 62.24% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015（ Note: the cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

This week, both supply and demand parties remained stagnant, downstream purchasing intention continued to be depressed, and market prices remained stable for a while. At present, the enterprises in Hunan Province have been resumed to start, and the market supply is recovering from the early stage, but the downstream demand is still not rising. Enter the off-season of traditional industry in the second quarter immediately, downstream demand will continue to shrink, and market mentality is generally weak.

As of June 5, 2 antimony ingots, 56500 yuan / ton, 0 × sb ingot 57500 yuan / ton were in the domestic market.

Supply and demand of antimony ingot Market is weak, which is about to enter the traditional off-season, with demand falling, and there is a slight gap between brands. At present, the supply of 2 # has begun to shrink, and the supply of 1 # is slightly loose. It is expected that there may be some room for the price of antimony ingots to decline in the future market.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, there are 2 commodities rising in the non-ferrous sector in the commodity price rise and fall list in the 22nd week (5.31-6.4) in 2021, of which more than 5% of the commodities are 1, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The first two commodities were praseodymium oxide (5.85%) and cobalt (0.76%). There are 17 commodities falling on the same month, the first three products are dysprosium oxide (-5.00%), gold (-4.10%), dysprosium iron alloy (-4.07%). Both rose and fell – 1.74% this week, with most of the commodities down this week.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the figure above, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 4283.33 yuan / ton on May 31 to 4083.33 yuan / ton on June 4, down 200 yuan / ton or 4.67%, up 52.51% year on year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell this week, with the calcium carbide commodity index at 109.61 on June 4.

The upstream support is weakened, the downstream maintenance is increased, and the purchase intention is reduced

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend was 4050 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion quoted 4100 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, down 350 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s offer for calcium carbide this weekend was 4100 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, in the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of LAN Tan fell sharply this week. The quotation of Xiaoliao this weekend is 980 yuan / ton, which is 120 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; At the end of this week, Sinochem quoted 980 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; Dali’s quotation this weekend is 980 yuan / ton, which is 320 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. The price of upstream raw materials fell sharply and the cost support weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory price high consolidation this week. This week, the price of PVC was 9150.00 yuan / ton, up 44.66% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of PVC was high, the market was general, and the maintenance of PVC was increased, so the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream calcium carbide was weakened. On the whole, this week’s PVC market had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

After the completion of maintenance, the demand increased and the market fluctuated slightly

In the middle of June, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly and rose mainly. The price of raw material orchid charcoal was high and the cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. However, the downstream PVC maintenance completed, the demand increased, and the market began to rise slightly. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may rise slightly in mid June.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business news agency, the average market price of steam coal on June 7 was about 936.25 yuan / ton, up 69.69% over the same period last year. On June 6, the steam coal commodity index was 112.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.76% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 (2021-01-19), and up 152.35% from the lowest point of 44.70 on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

In terms of origin: the sales of coal mines in the origin still maintain a good situation in the early stage, and there are still many coal hauling vehicles in coal mines. Affected by environmental protection inspection, the overall increase of coal supply in Ordos is still limited, and the sales in Inner Mongolia is relatively hot, but the number of coal mines with price increase is small, and the price adjustment of coal mines is more cautious.

Downstream power plants: in recent days, the coastal daily consumption is at a high level, and the number of days available for power plants has decreased. However, the limited price sales of large enterprises have a great impact on traders’ sentiment, and affected by policy regulation, the enthusiasm of power plants to replenish stocks has declined, and the willingness to reduce prices is relatively strong. Traders are mainly on the lookout.

According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on June 7, in May 2021, China imported 21.04 million tons of coal and lignite, a month on month decrease of 3.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. From January to may 2021, China imported 111.166 million tons of coal and lignite, a year-on-year decrease of 25.2%.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the overall supply of thermal coal is still difficult to increase. As for the downstream power plants, with the rising temperature, the power plants still have the demand for replenishment. However, due to the influence of the policy recently, the port has a strong wait-and-see mood. On the whole, it is difficult for the short-term steam coal price to have a higher rise, and the price mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

Isopropanol prices fell this week, according to commodity data monitoring. The average price of isopropanol in China was 7133.33 yuan / ton last Friday, and 6933.33 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 2.8% in the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: price trend comparison of acetone and isopropanol from April to June

Isopropanol prices continued to fall this week. Internationally, the closing price of isopropanol in the United States was stable on June 1, while the European isopropanol market closed down. Up to now, the quotation range of isopropanol in Shandong is about 6700-6900 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is about 7000 yuan / ton. The price range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 7000 yuan / ton. Raw material acetone fell, the operation rate of East China acetone isopropanol plant increased, the wait-and-see mood of downstream was obvious, the on-site inquiry was general, the on-site trading of isopropanol was short, and the price decreased obviously.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market continued to fall this week. The average price of domestic acetone was 5800 yuan / ton last Friday and 5700 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 1.72% during the week. The domestic acetone market continued to run in a weak position, the market negotiation was weak and difficult to adjust, the market holder was under great pressure, the offer was more cautious, the downstream terminal factories were short of gas, and the low price supply was frequent.

In terms of raw material propylene, the propylene market first fell and then rose this week. The average price of domestic propylene was 8043.09 yuan / ton last Friday and 8004.91 yuan / ton this Friday. The price was reduced by 0.47% within the week. At present, the domestic inventory is not much, some units are overhauled, the enterprises still suspend the quotation, the crude oil market continues to rise, the downstream operation rate is general, some units slightly return to work, the market is favorable, it is expected that propylene may continue to rise.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of chemical branch of business society thinks: at present, foreign export orders are general. The price of raw material acetone fell while the price of propylene rose. The operation rate of East China acetone isopropanol plant is improved, the spot supply is sufficient, and the delivery pressure of the shippers is greater. The lower reaches are mainly wait-and-see, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is light. It is expected that isopropanol will be mainly consolidated at low level in the short term.

Due to the acceleration of economic recovery and the continuous high temperature, the demand for electricity is rising, resulting in the shortage of power supply in southern China. Some cities in Guangdong and Yunnan started to use electricity at off peak. This round of peak load shifting has a certain impact on some non-ferrous smelting enterprises. At present, Yunnan zinc smelters have begun to implement the power and production restriction policy, and the preliminary plan is to limit it to the middle and late June. According to the current production reduction, it is estimated that the refined zinc in Yunnan will have an impact of 12000-15000 tons in May. According to statistics, the zinc smelting capacity in Yunnan Province accounts for about 17% of the whole country. The production reduction in Yunnan will reduce the supply of domestic refined zinc, lead to insufficient supply in the zinc market, and increase the driving force of zinc price rise. Some enterprises in Guangzhou, Foshan, Dongguan, Huizhou, Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Chaozhou and other places are required to use electricity at different peak periods, and there is no plan to reduce the output of smelters in Guangdong for the time being. The overall supply of zinc market is expected to decrease, and the rising power of zinc price is increased.

Zinc price rising

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the price of zinc fluctuated and rose in May, reaching a new high since 2019. As the price of zinc continued to rise, the market of zinc market went up all the way, and the zinc market was in the peak demand season. The demand in the future was expected to increase, and the rising power of zinc price was sufficient.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business news agency, believes that: in the peak demand season of zinc market, the rising power of zinc market is sufficient, and with the economic recovery, the demand of zinc market is expected to increase; The peak of electricity consumption in summer is coming, and the peak production of Yunnan zinc ingot smelter is staggering, which leads to the decrease of refined zinc output and zinc market supply. The supply of zinc market is reduced, the demand is expected to increase, the supply of zinc market exceeds or intensifies, and the price of zinc may reach a new high. Although the national price control has a certain cooling effect on the zinc market, the basic market of the zinc market is short of supply, which makes the zinc price in a high position. The future zinc price is expected to rise in shock, and the rising trend of zinc price slows down. However, the price of zinc is difficult to reach a record high. It is expected that the price of zinc will stabilize after a short rise.

Recent trend of urea price

As can be seen from the figure above, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose this week, from 2330.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2353.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 1.00%, and a year-on-year increase of 43.50%. On the whole, the urea market rose this week, with the urea commodity index at 109.46 on May 28, showing an upward trend over the weekend.

The upstream support is general, the downstream demand is good, and the supply side is tight

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong rose this week. The price of urea in Yangmei plain this weekend is 2360 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2330 yuan / ton this weekend, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 2370 yuan / ton this weekend, 30 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week.

From the data of upstream and downstream industry chain, the upstream products of urea this week are on the rise and fall with each other as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 3463.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3493.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.87%, up 37.89% compared with the same period last year; The price of steam coal decreased slightly, from 900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 856.25 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a decrease of 4.86%, and a year-on-year increase of 54.28%. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly, from 3970.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4103.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 3.36%, and a year-on-year increase of 37.54%. The quotation of melamine in the lower reaches of urea fell sharply this week, from 13900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 9533.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 31.41%.

From the perspective of demand, the agricultural demand of different regions has been followed up; The downstream compound fertilizer and rubber sheet factories took goods actively, and the new orders of enterprises followed up well. From the supply side: in recent years, some enterprises in Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi and other places have been overhauled, and the supply side has been tightened. At the same time, the enterprise inventory and social inventory have also been maintained at a low position. In terms of Indian bidding: the bidding price of India RCF company announced that the bidding quantity of East Coast is 795000 tons CFR, and the lowest price is 408.88 US dollars / ton CFR. On the whole, the urea cost support this week is general, the downstream demand is better, and the urea supply is tight.

The price is still strong in the future

In the first ten days of June, the urea market in Shandong may rise slightly. Urea analysts of business news agency believe that at present, the agricultural demand is rising and the industrial demand is also rising slightly, but the supply of urea is tight. It is expected that the domestic urea market will not meet the demand in the short term, and the market price will fluctuate slightly.