Product Name: silicone DMC

Latest price (October 11): 63133 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on October 11, the trend of domestic silicone DMC market was weak and downward. On the 11 day, the price of domestic silicone DMC factory quoted 63000-63200 yuan / ton, the average price reference is 63133 yuan / ton, compared with the previous working day, the price was reduced by 733 yuan / ton, or 1.15%, among which the largest factory was a chemical factory in Shandong, and the price of organic silicon DMC was 63200 yuan / ton, which was 1000 yuan / ton lower than that during the national day.

Future forecast: at present, the high and low prices of domestic silicone DMC market are shrinking, and the downstream demand performance is still good. Therefore, according to the silicone DMC analysis of business society, most domestic silicone DMCs will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride rose. As of September 9, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 7400 yuan / ton. The spot supply on the site was normal and the sales situation was OK.

The price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is rising, the delivery situation of phthalic anhydride market is normal, the recent downstream demand changes little, the price trend of upstream orthobenzene is rising, and the plasticizer market is rising. Due to the impact of dual control, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is rising. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers maintained a low level, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the field was less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride was tight, the market price trend rose, the downstream plasticizer industry improved, and the actual transaction was normal. The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is rising, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 7400-7600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 7100-7300 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 7400-7500 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The plasticizer market has improved recently, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is expected to rise in the later stage.

Commodity index: on September 30, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 101.56, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.83% from the highest point 109.01 in the cycle (2019-08-28), and up 20.45% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the monitoring of the business community, under the comprehensive influence of factors such as the sharp increase of raw material cost and production cost, the reduction of spot inventory and national day order arrangement, the market of water treatment products rose sharply in September. The manufacturer’s quotation was cautious, the pricing and delivery were subject to the price of the day, and oral reservation was not accepted, but the order arrangement was subject to payment. As a result, there are many shocking enterprise notices in the circle of friends, as shown in the figure:

As shown in the figure, according to the data of business society, the mainstream market of polyaluminium chloride in China has risen sharply recently. On September 1, the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminium chloride was 1761.11 yuan / ton, which rose to about 1878.89 yuan / ton on September 30, with a monthly increase of 6.69%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, according to the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid increased this month, and the quotation increased from 293.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 299.80 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 6.47 yuan / ton, or 2.21%. The recent market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general, the cost support is general, the market situation of downstream ammonium chloride and white carbon black rises and falls, and the downstream purchase intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly recently.

LNG is used in the production process. In September, the domestic LNG market fluctuated violently, falling first and then rising and then falling. The price trend showed an inverted n-shape, which was much higher than the level in the same period in recent three years, and it fell sharply near the end of the month. On the 30th, the average price of domestic LNG was 5650 yuan / ton, down 460 yuan / ton from 6110 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 7.53% in the month and up 114.83% compared with the same period last year. The power rationing policy affects the demand of downstream users. In addition, during the holidays, dangerous chemical vehicles are prohibited from driving into the expressway, the logistics is limited, and there is pressure on the delivery of liquid plants. Actively reduce the price to seek profit. In the short term, the domestic LNG market is weak, and the price may continue to decrease.

Future forecast: according to the analysis of business society, the market of water treatment industry rose under the comprehensive influence of multiple factors in September. The rise of raw materials increased the purchasing pressure of downstream enterprises and weakened the purchasing driving force of polyaluminium chloride. After that, the rise and fall of the market still depends on the change of raw material price.

In September, the phenol market rose first and then fell, with an overall upward trend of 2.71%. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of phenol in the country was 9225 yuan / ton on September 1, at yuan / ton on September 14, and at yuan / ton on September 30, with an increase of 2.71% and an amplitude of 7.32% in the month. So far, the offers in major mainstream markets are as follows: 9450-9500 yuan / ton in East China, 9400-9450 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan, The offer in South China is 9600 yuan / ton.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Trend chart of phenol ex factory price index in East China in 2021

From the raw material side, the phenol Market in September was greatly affected by the raw material pure benzene. As can be seen from the figure below, the pure benzene also showed a trend of first rising and then falling in September. The arrival of some ships in the first ten days of the year was delayed, the port inventory was low, and the shipment of local refining enterprises was ok, so the price of pure benzene fluctuated and rose. At this time, it is reported that the large styrene plant is planned to be overhauled in October, the supply of styrene is expected to tighten, and the price rises sharply, driving the rise of pure benzene. In the second week of September, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene three times, from 350 yuan / ton to 8000 yuan / ton. After mid month, affected by the “dual control” policy in the downstream, the shutdown of multiple units decreased, the downstream operating rate decreased significantly, and the shutdown of styrene, aniline and caprolactam in East China decreased the load of phenol. In the early stage, the reserve of pure benzene in the downstream was relatively sufficient, the resistance of the downstream to high priced pure benzene increased and the follow-up weakened. The demand for pure benzene decreased sharply, and pure benzene fell broadly. The cumulative reduction is 700-800 yuan / ton to 7650-7700 yuan / ton.

The downstream bisphenol a market declined significantly. In September, bisphenol A was sorted down in a wide range. Under the influence of policies, the downstream operating rate decreased significantly, and the demand for raw material bisphenol a decreased sharply. Most domestic factories of bisphenol A have supporting devices. After the replenishment of imported goods, the demand decreased and the price decreased significantly. On September 28, the market fell to 21700 yuan / ton. After the sharp decline, most of the cargo holders did not make external offers and had no intention of shipping before the festival. The market callback was negotiated at 22500 yuan / ton in the two days at the end of the month. Phenolic resin and other downstream products have little change, and the overall demand is stable.

From the perspective of the business community, the pre festival goods preparation in the phenol market has ended, and the industrial chain has declined under the influence of policies. The pre festival goods preparation mood this year is poor. The business community expects the phenol Market to fluctuate upward in October, and the resumption of terminal factories still needs attention. After the National Day holiday, the market may push up. At present, there is little pressure on the domestic supply side, and the holders have little intention to make profit and ship goods. On the demand side, the impact of post holiday policies will be the key to the recovery of downstream operating rate. Business society expects that the phenol Market in October is worth looking forward to

During the week, it lowered 2.63% high shock operation

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on September 30 was 22713.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.63% compared with the average market price of 23326.67 yuan / ton on September 24; Compared with the average market price of 21160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (9.1), an increase of 7.34%.

Taking the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) as the benchmark price, it has increased by 44.43%.

Energy consumption double control and tight supply

On the supply side, in terms of production, the aluminum output is expected to be 9.56 million tons in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, and the annual aluminum output is 38.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%; At the import end, the net import of aluminum ingots from January to July is 923000 tons, and the net import for the whole year is expected to be 1.13 million tons; In terms of dumping and storage, it is expected to dump 490000 tons from June to December; The annual aluminum supply is 40.25 million tons.

Overall, in the fourth quarter, under the background of power shortage and strict implementation of dual control of energy consumption, there is still room for further reduction of electrolytic aluminum production.

The demand is expected to be stable and strong in the fourth quarter

In terms of demand, the growth rate of overseas demand is expected to slow down. At present, aluminum exports will remain relatively high, and inertia is expected to remain in the short term; At home, the inertia of real estate completion is still, the short-term demand is still, the demand for photovoltaic, automobile and other industrial materials is growing, and rail transit, power transmission and transformation are facing a certain reduction. It is estimated that the consumption increment in the fourth quarter will be around 10 million tons, with a growth rate of about 1%; In 2021, the annual consumption was 40.52 million tons, an increase of 6%.

Future expectations

Supply and demand are relatively tight. Although the current price is high and the upward space is narrowed, it is expected that the recent high shock will be the main operation trend.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of September 30, the average price of domestic rubber grade excellent white carbon black was 5300.00 yuan / ton. This week, the white carbon black operated smoothly, the price fluctuation was not obvious, the supply and demand were balanced, and the room for rise was limited.

In the first ten days of September, the white carbon black market operated smoothly this week, the overall market supply and demand were balanced, the downstream just needed to prepare goods, the purchasing atmosphere was general, the contract customers were the main, the number of new orders was limited, the inventory was normal, the manufacturers shipped actively, the logistics was smooth, the operating rate was normal, the upstream hydrochloric acid quotation was temporarily stable, Dezhou Maihua was 150 yuan / ton, Shanxi Wenshui was 230 yuan / ton, Dezhou Shihua was 500 yuan / ton, The price has not changed significantly, mainly for contract customers.

In mid September, this week, the silica market mainly operated stably, the overall market supply and demand were balanced, the downstream just needed to prepare goods, the procurement atmosphere was general, the contract customers were the main, the number of new orders was limited, the inventory was normal, the manufacturers shipped actively, the logistics was smooth, the operating rate was normal, the upstream hydrochloric acid quotation was temporarily stable, the cost support was general, Dezhou Maihua was 150 yuan / ton, Shanxi Wenshui was 230 yuan / ton, Dezhou Shihua is 450 yuan / ton, the price has no obvious change, mainly for contract customers.

In late September, this week, the white carbon black market mainly operated stably, the range of price changes was limited, the overall market supply and demand was balanced, the downstream just needed to prepare goods, the procurement atmosphere was general, the contract customers were mainly, the number of new orders was limited, the current inventory was normal, the manufacturers shipped actively, the logistics was smooth, the start-up rate was normal, the upstream hydrochloric acid: the upstream hydrochloric acid operated stably and the cost support was general, Some enterprises have started maintenance, the supply side is low, and maintain stable, medium and upper operation in the short term. The latest enterprise quotation is 160 yuan / ton for Dezhou Maihua, 260 yuan / ton for Shanxi Wenshui and 500 yuan / ton for Dezhou Shihua.

White carbon black analyst of business agency thinks:. After the festival, the white carbon black still maintained a stable operation. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market fluctuated in September, and the spot price fluctuated. As of September 29, the average price of the mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 17800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.25% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month and a year-on-year increase of 19.06%.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: upstream styrene increased greatly in the first half of the month due to the upward trend of international oil price and the positive effects of chemical chain products. However, the direct raw material pure benzene fell in the latter half of the year, the cost side’s support for styrene weakened, and the high spot price fell.

At the end of September, the price of acrylonitrile was mainly sideways, and the spot price was relatively stable. The on-site trading is partially weak, the message surface is weak, the procurement operation at the demand side is cautious, and the on-site offers are mostly stable.

In September, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. Affected by the lower external market and weak demand throughout the month, the atmosphere on the floor was mostly bearish. Moreover, the load of main downstream enterprises is still not high, and the market trading is cold. It is expected that the spot price will continue to fall under pressure from many parties.

The upstream market fluctuated, and the cost side support of ABS was general. In terms of operating rate, the newly increased capacity in the early stage and the maintenance plans of several production lines exist at the same time. Environmental protection policies such as power restriction in September have an impact on the operating rate of the ABS industry. At the same time, the load of upstream and downstream has decreased, the quantity of goods taken by terminal enterprises has decreased, and the market momentum has weakened.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fell narrowly in September, and the trend of the three upstream materials fluctuated, which generally contributed to ABS. Some domestic enterprises have been reduced due to the impact of environmental protection related policies, and the current on-site supply and demand has weakened at the same time. There is no large-scale demand in the traditional peak season in September. At present, there is a critical holiday, and the on-site trading is still poor. It is expected that the ABS spot market may remain stable and weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 28, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 9000 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on September 1 (the average price was reduced by 8533 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 467 yuan / ton, or 5.47%.

At the beginning of September, the transaction in the domestic butanone market continued the cold atmosphere of the previous month. From the 2nd, the butanone market began to decline sharply. In just two days, the ex factory price of butanone in Shandong butanone market fell to around 8100-8400 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of butanone in Jiangsu butanone market was close to 8000-8300 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.12% in the first two days of the month. Subsequently, the market continued to be weak. Since June 6, the trading atmosphere in the domestic butanone market has warmed up, the low-end price of butanone has improved, and the willingness of butanone manufacturers to continue to sell goods has decreased. On June 6, the market price of butanone in Shandong and Jiangsu began to rise slightly by 50-100 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of butanone in Shandong is around 8200-8500 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand has not increased significantly, Butanone did not open and rose sharply. Subsequently, the domestic butanone market as a whole was weak. On the eve of the national day, the downstream of butanone still did not show a significant hoarding phenomenon. In the face of the current tepid trading atmosphere, on the 15th, individual butanone holders in Shandong narrowly reduced the ex factory price of butanone by 50 yuan / ton. The average ex factory price of domestic butanone was 8300 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.53% in the first half of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In late September, the high level of C4 market after raw ether still gave butanone some cost support. The atmosphere of butanone trading increased, and the intention of butanone operators to lower prices was not high. The market price of butanone rose rapidly. On the 17th, the high price of Shandong butanone market returned to 8900 yuan / ton, with an average price increase of 380 yuan / ton, up 4.62% compared with the 15th. The downstream has a general ability to accept high prices. In addition, some downstream areas are restricted by environmental protection, and the demand is reduced. The trading atmosphere of butanone market is general. The consolidation operation is close to the end of the month and before the national day, the downstream of butanone stores goods in a small range, and the price of butanone factory is increased by 200-600 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is better, and the trading focus is rising. As of the 28th, The average ex factory reference price of domestic butanone was 9000 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.43% compared with the middle of the month and 5.47% compared with the beginning of the month.

Upstream, in September, the domestic civil liquefied gas market in Shandong rose as a whole. As of September 27, the reference price of liquefied gas was 5226.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.8% compared with September 1 (4760 yuan / ton). On September 27, the civil gas market in Shandong remained stable. Individual manufacturers slightly adjusted the ex factory price according to their own situation. At present, the mainstream quotation of civil gas in Shandong is about 5250-5280 yuan / ton. The National Day holiday is coming, there is a certain demand for replenishment before the downstream Festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market is OK, the overall shipment of manufacturers is moderate, and the price of liquefied gas civil market is expected to be strong in the short term.

Internationally, on September 27, the international oil price continued to rise. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $75.45/barrel, an increase of US $1.47 or 2.0%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $78.72/barrel, an increase of US $1.49 or 1.9%. Brent crude oil rose to a high since October 2018, approaching the $80 mark in the session. The economy of the world’s major economies continued to recover and fuel demand rebounded, but U.S. inventories continued to decline, and the oil and gas recovery in the Gulf of Mexico was slow. In addition, it is difficult for the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) to increase production in the short term, and the supply-demand gap is expected to strongly support oil prices.

Future analysis of butanone

In the short term, the raw material cost still supports the butanone market, but after the short-term increase in downstream demand, the high price transactions on the floor are limited. Therefore, the butanone analysts of the business society believe that in the short term, the butanone market is expected to wait and see, sort and operate. More attention should be paid to the follow-up of raw material end and downstream demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 27, the average price of PMMA of domestic general transparent superior products was 17100.00 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained about 17000 yuan / ton. The PMMA price rose narrowly this month, and the overall price increased by 0.29%. The focus of negotiation was stable and the price range was small.

In the first ten days of September, domestic PMMA maintained a stable operation with limited price fluctuation range, mainly for contract customers and just needed to purchase in the downstream. At present, it is in off-season sales, with general transaction atmosphere and limited fluctuation range. The negotiation atmosphere is flat, the upstream raw materials are weak, the negotiation focus is low, the early trend is maintained in a short period, and the upstream acetone market is steadily rising, The acetone price of China Bluestar Harbin Petrochemical Co., Ltd. increased by 300 to 6900 yuan / ton, and the MIBK quotation in East China was adjusted at a high level of 21000-21500 yuan / ton. The transaction atmosphere was cold and the operating rate decreased.

In mid September, domestic PMMA maintained a stable operation with limited price fluctuation range, mainly for contract customers and just needed to be purchased downstream. At present, it is in off-season sales, with general transaction atmosphere and limited fluctuation range. The negotiation atmosphere is flat, the upstream raw materials are weak, the negotiation focus is low, the early trend is maintained in a short period, and the upstream phenol Market is rising in a narrow range, At present, the offer of the mainstream quotation area is 9350 yuan / ton in East China, 9300-9350 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas, 9400-9450 yuan / ton in South China. The unit operating rate is normal. It is expected to be stable, medium and strong in the short term. The quotation range of the upstream acetone in East China is about 6150-6250 yuan / ton. The purchase enthusiasm is general and the willingness to prepare goods is not obvious, Maintain the early trend in the short term.

In late September, the domestic PMMA maintained a stable operation, the willingness to prepare goods before the festival was not obvious, the price fluctuation range was limited, mainly for contract customers, and the downstream just needed to purchase. At present, it is in the off-season sales, the transaction atmosphere is general, the fluctuation range is limited, the negotiation atmosphere is flat, the upstream raw materials are weak, the negotiation focus is low, the early trend will be maintained in the short term, and the acetone market is in a stalemate. However, with the advent of the double festival, especially the National Day holiday, the transportation of dangerous chemicals is blocked, and there are short-term goods preparation in some downstream. Under the condition of no pressure on supply, the mentality of cargo holders is more supported. The business agency expects a narrow upward trend in the East China market in the short term, and the negotiation is 6500-6650 yuan / ton.

Acetone commodity index: on September 26, the acetone commodity index was 68.52, the same as yesterday, down 43.85% from the highest point of 122.02 in the cycle (2020-06-16), and up 124.14% from the lowest point of 30.57 on April 8, 2019. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency PMMA analysts believe that the National Day holiday is coming, and the enterprise is not willing to stock goods. It is expected that the PMMA price will be stable after the holiday, and the procurement operation is just needed. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of September 24, the spot price was 145900 yuan / ton, down 0.6% from 146783.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 13.87% from the beginning of the week and 28.13% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices rose by 7 and fell by 5, and weakened in the past two weeks.

Macro factors: the global epidemic situation was severe, and the external market was weak during the holidays. Subsequently, the oil price continued to rise, reaching a new high in nearly a week, and US stocks rebounded higher. The Fed’s September minutes were hawkish, driving the dollar index up, and the trend of nickel price was weak.

Nickel industry chain

Supply: nickel ore prices continue to be strong and cost support is strong. Ferronickel is also affected by double control, which will reduce production, and there is a gap in downstream stainless steel, which needs to be filled by nickel plate.

Downstream: 300 series stainless steel decreased by 12.97% to 1.28 million tons in September compared with August. Assuming that stainless steel maintains high-intensity production reduction in the fourth quarter, the annual ferronickel gap is 50900 tons, and the supply and demand of ferronickel is in a relatively tight balance from September to October. In August, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles were 309000 and 321000 respectively, an increase of 1.8 times year-on-year; The loading capacity of power battery was 12.6gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 144.9% and a month on month increase of 11.2%.

Import and export: according to customs statistics, China’s nickel ore import volume in August was 5.7771 million tons, with a month on month increase of 11.37% and a year-on-year increase of 53.43%. In August, China’s ferronickel import volume was 349700 tons, with a month on month increase of 24.40% and a year-on-year increase of 19.78%. In August, China’s Refined Nickel import volume was 29243.762 tons, with a month on month increase of 30.18% and a year-on-year increase of 186.31%. The export volume of refined nickel was 114.83 tons, with a month on month decrease of 54.73% and a year-on-year decrease of 89.20%.

To sum up: the decline of nickel price this week is mainly due to the upgrading of dual control in many provinces in China. As a raw material, nickel is worried about surplus, so the price has fallen sharply. In addition, macro also has a negative impact on metals. However, nickel supply is still tight, and the development of new energy industry chain is good. It is expected that the short-term or shock of nickel price is weak, but the long-term price is still strong.