Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of isooctanol mainstream in Shandong fell from 13466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12966.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 500 yuan / ton, down 3.71%, up 78.03% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the isooctanol market fell slightly this week, and there is a downward trend at the weekend.

Insufficient upstream support and weakening downstream demand

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong fell this week: Jianlan chemical’s quotation of isooctanol this weekend was about 13100 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton compared with that at the beginning of the week, dominated by contracts; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 13000 yuan / ton, which is 400 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng offered 12800 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 700 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell sharply this week. The quotation fell from 8175.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7717.17 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.61%, an increase of 11.11% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol due to the impact of supply and demand.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell sharply this week. DOP quotation decreased from 12900.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12225.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.23%, an increase of 61.92% over the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In mid and early November, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly. The upstream propylene fell sharply, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP began to decline slightly, the downstream market was general, and the demand weakened. Therefore, the isooctanol analysts of business society believe that the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly in the middle and late November.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. This week, the average price of mainstream factory quotation of domestic potassium chloride was 2890.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 48.21% over the same period last year. On the whole, the domestic potassium chloride market was temporarily stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2890 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Qinghai small factory 57% powder mainstream factory quotation 2700 yuan; The potassium chloride distribution quotation of Shanghai Shijian industry is 4600 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride distribution quotation is 4100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Jinan bayat potassium chloride distribution quotation is 4600 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. The factory quotation of 57% powder of Qinghai small factory is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the supply of goods is tight. The price of 62% white potassium in the port has been increased by about 4050-4100 yuan / ton. The price of 62% Russian White potassium vehicle board in border trade is about 3750-3800 yuan / ton.

The salt lake and zangge are under normal operation and the unit is in good operation, but the downstream demand is good and the supply of goods is relatively tight. From the perspective of agricultural demand, the autumn fertilizer market is ending with slight procurement, while the winter storage market has not been started yet, and traders are not active in taking goods. From the perspective of industrial demand, the overall operating rate of the downstream market of potassium chloride is not high, and it is mainly just needed to purchase. While the international potash fertilizer has risen sharply, the domestic potash fertilizer may still rise.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend or high consolidation of potassium chloride Market in the middle and early days of November. The international demand for potash fertilizer is strong, but the domestic available supply is in short supply. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the short-term potassium chloride market is dominated by high-level consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price index of domestic rare earth market continues to rise. It is obvious from the figure that the rare earth price index has reached a new high. Recently, the domestic praseodymium neodymium rare earth market has soared, and the price of heavy rare earth market has risen accordingly. On November 3, the rare earth index was 694 points, an increase of 8 points compared with yesterday and a decrease of 30.60% compared with the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), It is 156.09% higher than the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

Recently, the price increase in the domestic light rare earth market was eye-catching. Recently, the price of mainstream praseodymium neodymium commodities in the rare earth market continued to rise. Although there was a correction at the beginning of the month, the range was small, and the price continued to rise at the weekend. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic praseodymium neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide, metal neodymium, metal praseodymium neodymium and metal praseodymium all rose. The prices of all products ran out of a nine-year high on October 28, and reached a new high after November. As of November 4, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare soil was 765000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium oxide is 775000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 750000 yuan / ton; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 907500 yuan / ton; The price of metal praseodymium is 990000 yuan / ton; The price of neodymium is 955000 yuan / ton. The transaction in the domestic rare earth market has improved, the on-site supply is tight, and the light rare earth market has risen sharply.

The trend of products in the domestic rare earth market is rising, the structural change of supply and demand is small, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances continues to increase, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side has increased. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, the rapid development of new energy industry has driven the development of many industries, and the upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also caught the “express” of new energy. The main rare earth raw materials of high-performance Nd-Fe-B are light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium oxide, heavy rare earth dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide, which are used in new energy vehicles, wind power, energy-saving frequency conversion air conditioning, traditional vehicles and other fields. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal, the demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxides has risen sharply. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on wait-and-see and purchases cautiously. At the same time, the national environmental protection inspector is still continuing. The traditional peak demand season for rare earth is coming. Superimposed on the launch expectations of relevant policies of the rare earth industry, the supply and demand is expected to resonate with the policies, and the rare earth market continues to rise. In addition, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has been at a low level, the shippers have low willingness to ship, strong reluctance to sell and wait-and-see mood, and the on-site prices continue to rise. Finally, the shortage of rare earth supply continues. The supply of rare earth waste is also tight and the price is strong, and the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide is upside down. In addition, the prices of auxiliary materials are also rising, and the costs of separation enterprises have increased. In addition, some separation enterprises in Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan and other places have reduced production, resulting in a continuous shortage of praseodymium and neodymium oxide spot supply. With the arrival of the procurement cycle of magnetic material enterprises, the price of praseodymium and neodymium has been rising recently. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in the first three quarters of 2021, the number of pure electric vehicles has increased by 1101000 year-on-year, and the number of plug-in hybrid vehicles has increased by 211000 year-on-year. The substitution effect on the fuel vehicle market is continuing. In recent years, the demand for new energy is high, and the price of domestic light rare earth market continues to rise. Driven by the demand for Nd-Fe-B, the domestic heavy rare earth market price rose accordingly, but it did not reach a new high in the year.

As can be seen from the trend chart, the domestic price of dysprosium series rose. As of the 4th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.96 million yuan / ton, the price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.935 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal dysprosium was 3.73 million yuan / ton. The price of domestic Terbium series continued to rise, the price of domestic terbium oxide was 11.25 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 12.6 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths rose, but the price was lower than that in April, when the market price of heavy rare earths was at a ten-year high. The turnover of the domestic rare earth market improved and the leading magnetic material factory actively purchased, which led to the rise of the domestic heavy rare earth market price. In the early stage, affected by the rainy season and epidemic situation, the rare earth supply in Myanmar was disturbed. In the later stage, the war broke out in Myanmar, and the supply disturbance was further aggravated. The global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, the domestic supply is tight, and the production reduction risk of separation enterprises using Myanmar mines in the south is increased. Affected by this, the domestic heavy rare earth supply is tight, coupled with the increase of domestic demand, the contradiction between supply and demand is intensified, and the price trend of heavy rare earth market is rising.

In addition, with the support of national policies, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, pointed out in early July that the regulations on the administration of rare earth will be introduced as soon as possible. We expect that the regulations will be introduced with a high probability within this year, and the national level legislation will regulate the high-quality development of the rare earth industry. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products has increased, and the price of domestic rare earth market has risen sharply.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic rare earth supply is still tight and the inventory continues to decline. Recently, the on-site transaction market is OK and the goods are actively prepared. With the advent of the traditional peak demand season of rare earth, the merchants holding the goods are reluctant to sell. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the price trend of rare earth market will mainly rise in the later stage.

Price list of magnesium ingots in Shaanxi on March 3

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory tax price of 99.9% of the mainstream areas was 32333.33 yuan / ton on the 3rd, down 4.90% from yesterday’s price

From the quotation situation, the quotation of magnesium ingot decreased significantly by 10000 yuan / ton compared with last Friday. From the perspective of supply and demand, the cost support at the raw material end continues to weaken, the prices of raw coal and ferrosilicon continue to fall, and downstream customers are also deterred from the rapidly declining magnesium price. They mainly wait-and-see market, and there are few demand orders. On the whole, the market situation of oversupply leads to the continuous downward pressure on the magnesium market.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that magnesium prices are under pressure in the short term.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners decreased slightly this week. On October 31, the average price of Shandong market was 3234.67 yuan / ton, which was 1.02% lower than that of 3268.00 yuan / ton on October 25.

On October 31, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 251.59, unchanged from yesterday, down 4.04% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 276.12% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery had a good trading, the refinery actively shipped to inventory, the inventory of individual refineries was high, and the local refined petroleum coke price decreased slightly.

Upstream: the decline in international crude oil prices this week is mainly due to the report released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday that the increase of U.S. crude oil inventories last week exceeded expectations. In addition, there are rumors that Iran’s nuclear negotiations may restart and the high oil price will be corrected. Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, said on twitter that a date for the resumption of talks between Iran and Western powers would be announced next week. Meanwhile, the Biden administration hopes to resume the Iranian nuclear agreement.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke remained basically stable this week; Metal silicon market has declined; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell. As of October 31, the price was 20210.00 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 43rd week of 2021 (10.25-10.29), there are two kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including one kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 2 commodities were liquefied natural gas (7.10%) and fuel oil (0.33%). A total of 12 commodities decreased month on month, and 7 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 43.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were steam coal (- 31.12%), methanol (- 12.42%) and dimethyl ether (- 11.85%). The average rise and fall this week was – 6.07%.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that the price of petroleum coke in refineries has fallen recently. Refineries actively ship to inventory, with good trading and investment, and the inventory of individual refineries is high. The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fell, and the price of calcined coke remained basically stable. It is expected that the price of petroleum coke may decline slightly in the near future.

In October, the phenol market rose first and then fell, with an overall increase of 1.72% and a maximum amplitude of 6.08%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the national average price of phenol was 9462 yuan / ton on October 1, and 9625 yuan / ton on October 31, with an increase of 1.72% in the month. By the end of the month, the offers of major mainstream markets were as follows: 9550-9600 yuan / ton in East China, 9500-9600 yuan / ton in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas, and 9750 yuan / ton in South China.

Trend chart of average phenol price in the national market

Trend chart of phenol ex factory price index in East China in 2021

In terms of raw materials, in early October, pure benzene rose continuously and the price rose broadly; Prices began to fluctuate downward in the middle and late days and fell deeply at the end of the month. On October 1, the price was 7880 yuan / ton; At the end of the month, the price was 7500-7700 yuan / ton (average price 7600 yuan / ton). The highest price of this month appeared on October 13, and the price was 8580 yuan / ton. The lowest price appeared on October 29, and the price was 7600 yuan / ton. This month’s decline was 3.55%, an increase of 111.11% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the month was 980 yuan / ton. During the 11th National Day, crude oil rose broadly, driving the relevant commodity markets to actively follow up. The cost side support was strong, the outer disk Asian pure benzene followed the rise, the external news was good, and the domestic pure benzene market followed the rise. Two new caprolactam units have been put into operation in the downstream of Shandong, and the downstream bidding is enthusiastic. The pure benzene enterprises have good shipments and the inventory has decreased. Multiple positive attacks, in the first half of the month, the price of pure benzene rose broadly. With the weakening of downstream demand, the overall decline of pure benzene market and the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, pure benzene fluctuated downward. Due to power restriction in East China, the downstream operating rate is not high as a whole, and the demand for pure benzene is weak. It was reported near the end of the month that the crude oil quota of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II was implemented, and the export volume of pure benzene in East China was expected to further increase. Superimposed on the general weakness of bulk commodities, the price of pure benzene fell rapidly, with a decline of nearly 9% in the last week. In October, Sinopec raised the price twice, lowered the price twice, raised the price twice from 700 yuan / ton to 8300-8400 yuan / ton, and lowered the price twice from 800 yuan / ton to 7500-7600 yuan / ton.

In October, there was a sharp rise and fall in Shandong propylene market. During the national day, due to poor transportation and shortage of local supply in some areas, the local rise led to a nationwide rise, with a maximum daily increase of 250-300 yuan / ton and an average propylene price of 9600 yuan / ton. After the festival, the transportation recovered smoothly, the low-cost goods source flowed in, the price began to recover steadily and further callback in the later stage, especially in the last week of October, the callback range increased, the downstream demand was weak, the buyers had an obvious boycott attitude towards the high-priced goods source, and the price was basically reduced to the pre Festival price in order to stabilize the delivery of goods.

The downstream bisphenol a market fell significantly. In October, bisphenol A was sorted down in a wide range. After the middle of the year, the raw material end fell, and the cost side supported it. Under the influence of policies, the downstream operating rate decreased significantly, the demand for raw bisphenol a decreased sharply, and most domestic factories of bisphenol A had supporting devices. After the supplement of imported goods, the demand decreased and the price decreased significantly. At the end of the month, the market fell to 19200 yuan / ton. Phenolic resin and other downstream products have little change, and the overall demand is stable.

From the perspective of business agency, the domestic phenol market was mainly sorted and operated in November. At the beginning of the month, there were import supply supplement and export shipment from October. At the beginning of the month, the supply side fluctuated little, and traders mainly offered stable prices. In November, we still need to continue to pay attention to the changes in the crude oil pure benzene industrial chain at the raw material end and the tight start-up of new downstream bisphenol A units. The business society expects that the phenol market will be adjusted in November

In October 2021, the domestic 1# tin ingot Market rose first and then fell, and rebounded at the end of the month. The average price of the domestic market was 278012.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 277637.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 0.13%.

On October 28, the tin commodity index was 138.75, down 7.83 points from yesterday, down 8.75% from 152.06 points (2021-10-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 223.73% from 42.86 points, the lowest point on December 9, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In October, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated for many times. On the whole, it maintained a shock upward in the middle and early days, fell after the shock in the late days, and rebounded slightly near the end of the month. With the support of good fundamentals in the middle and early ten days, the futures market strengthened, driving the upward price of the spot market. In terms of smelters, the operating rate this month has little change compared with the previous month, and the market supply is still tight. There are 680 tons in the tin warehouse of the London futures exchange, and the inventory in the previous period was 1009 tons, both at a low level, and the supply is still tight. After entering October, the impact of the restricted power policy on the downstream demand side gradually weakened, and the peak shift production of solder and other industries had a limited impact on the overall tin demand. On the whole, the smelter continues to be affected by double control of energy consumption, power restriction policy and shortage of raw materials. The output of refined tin is still low and the overall supply is still tight. After entering the latter ten days, affected by the sharp decline of power coal futures on the 21st, the nonferrous metals sector made an overall correction. On the 28th, Shanghai tin fell by the limit, and the spot market followed the decline. Only one day, driven by its tight supply, the price of tin made a correction on the 29th.

In the future, the business agency believes that the impact of the current power restriction policy is gradually weakened, and manufacturers at home and abroad are gradually resuming production. The latest data show that tin import in September has been flat compared with the same period last year. With the resumption of production in Malaysia, it is expected that the supply will recover to a certain extent in the future. In terms of demand, the downstream solder is expected to have a good demand and support the demand for tin ingots. With the falling price, it will stimulate the downstream purchase intention. Under the condition that the overall inventory is still low, the downward space of tin price is limited in the short term, and it is expected to be dominated by wide shocks in the future.

Relevant data:

According to the latest report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on the 21st, there was a supply shortage of 2800 tons in the global tin market from January to August 2021. From January to August 2021, the output of refined tin increased by 30000 tons compared with the same period last year, and the apparent demand increased by 7.5% to 263900 tons compared with the same period last year. In August 2021, the global refined tin output was 29100 tons and the consumption was 29600 tons.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of October 28, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 17200.00 yuan / ton, down 5.15% compared with October 23 and 0.77% compared with September 28.

Propylene oxide market fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the raw material propylene market weakened, the liquid chlorine price decreased, the cost support weakened, the market supply increased, the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, the market atmosphere was weak, the factory slowly accumulated the warehouse, and the price fell under pressure. On the 28th, the propylene oxide Market in Shandong continued to decline, and the mainstream quotation was around 17000-17100 yuan / ton.

In terms of index, the propylene oxide commodity index on October 27 was 108.30, the same as yesterday, down 13.43% from the highest point of 125.10 in the cycle (2021-03-28), and up 159.71% from the lowest point of 41.70 on January 25, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Upstream propylene, Shandong propylene market fell this week. According to the bulk list data of business society, as of October 27, the reference price of propylene was 8537.17, down 11.35% from October 23 and up 3.71% from October 1.

For downstream propylene glycol, as of October 27, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 24166 yuan / ton. Compared with October 1 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 21100 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 3066 yuan / ton, or 14.53%; Downstream n-propanol, according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on October 28, the domestic n-propanol market mainly operated upward, and the average ex factory price of n-propanol was 8866 yuan / ton. Compared with the previous working day, the average price increased by 333 yuan / ton, or 3.91%; For the downstream soft foam polyether, the market price of soft foam polyether in Shandong decreased on the morning of October 28. At present, the mainstream quotation is around 17200-17500 yuan / ton.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the cost support is general, the downstream market atmosphere has improved, and the propylene oxide plant mainly digests the inventory. It is expected that the propylene oxide market may wait and see for consolidation and operation in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price first rose and then fell in October. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 141300 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the nickel price rose slightly to 151416.67 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 7.16% and a year-on-year increase of 25.87%. The nickel price has fluctuated upward since it fell to the lowest price of the year on April 21 this year, reaching the highest price of 159866.67 yuan / ton on October 21 this year, also reaching a new high of more than a decade, and then fell slightly.

Macro factors: the market situation is greatly affected by the macro, and the epidemic affects the economy. In order to restore the economy, countries have actively implemented loose monetary policy, and the financial attribute of metals has emerged, boosting the rise of commodity prices.

Global nickel supply tension intensifies

name Reduce production

Vale The output was reduced from 165000 to 170000 tons, lower than the 200000 tons previously predicted.

BHP Billiton Nickel production decreased by 20% in the third quarter

Norilsk Nickel Production decreased by 23%

Indonesia India said last month that it plans to ban or tax the export of nickel ore to keep more metals at home and support the development of Indonesia’s electric vehicle battery industry.

the Philippines Nickel production in 2021 is 10% lower than that in previous years

Nickel market supply shortage: according to the latest report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday, the global nickel market supply shortage was 83100 tons from January to August 2021, while the annual surplus in 2020 was 84200 tons. From January to August 2021, the global nickel output was 1799200 tons and the demand was 1882200 tons, with a shortage of 83100 tons. In addition, from January to August 2021, the global apparent demand for nickel increased by 384000 tons compared with the same period last year; In August 2021, the global nickel output was 258900 tons and the demand was 285900 tons.

Decline in imports: the epidemic continues to have an impact on the supply chain, route congestion in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans, and it is more difficult for consumers to obtain raw materials such as nickel. According to the data of China’s customs, the import of nickel ore decreased by 1.61% month on month and 8.45% year-on-year in September; In September, the import of ferronickel decreased by 12.34% month on month and 10.09% year-on-year; In September, the import of stainless steel decreased by 17.38% month on month, and the export increased by 9.57% month on month.

LME nickel inventory

Nickel industry chain

Downstream: the data of new energy vehicles is strong. Since the second half of this year, the data has been rising continuously, and the sales volume reached a record 357000 in September. Recently, Tesla signed an order for 42000 tons of nickel. The downstream stainless steel plant purchased ferronickel with high profits, and the low inventory supported the price.

High nickel matte has not been delivered: previously, QS industry signed a high nickel matte supply agreement with Huayou cobalt and Zhongwei shares on the afternoon of March 1, 2021. The three parties jointly agreed that QS industry will supply 60000 tons of high nickel matte to Huayou cobalt industry and 40000 tons of high nickel matte to Zhongwei Co., Ltd. within one year from October 2021. Recently, we were asked about the delivery of QS and its high matte nickel on the investor interaction platform. Huayou cobalt said that the purchase business of relevant nickel raw materials will be determined according to the progress of relevant projects and market changes. At present, relevant nickel raw materials have not been delivered. Previously expected

To sum up: the Philippines has entered the rainy season, the supply is becoming more and more tight, and the domestic ferronickel plants are limited by power production restriction. Meanwhile, Vale estimates that the production will be reduced in the fourth quarter, and the supply is expected to tighten. High nickel matte has not been delivered, which supports the nickel price. In the fourth quarter, with consumption gradually weakening and weak supply and demand, it is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate mainly in the range of 140000-155000 yuan / ton in November.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of October 24, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 16166.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.23% over the average price of 14666.67 yuan / ton on October 18, and an increase of 19.75% over the same period last month.

On October 24, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 152.29, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 197.56% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started to decline. International crude oil rose and domestic chemical prices rose; The operating rate of downstream unsaturated resin increased, and the downstream unsaturated resin operated at a high level, mainly in need of procurement. As of the 24th, Shandong’s solid anhydride was about 15500 yuan / ton, Jiangsu’s 16000 yuan / ton, Shanxi’s 16000 yuan / ton, Hebei’s 15000 yuan / ton and South China’s 16000 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene fell after rising this week. On October 17, the average price of pure benzene was 8440 yuan / ton, and on October 24, the average price of pure benzene was 8340 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, or 1.18%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong fell, from 8350 yuan / ton last weekend to 8050 yuan / ton this weekend, down 300 yuan / ton. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 6360 yuan / ton as of October 24.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 42nd week of 2021 (10.18-10.22), there are 50 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 15 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 15% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were hydrochloric acid (53.29%), ammonium sulfate (41.18%) and chloroform (22.60%). A total of 27 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 9 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 9% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were yellow phosphorus (- 16.67%), phosphoric acid (- 13.83%) and acetic acid (- 11.25%). The average rise and fall this week was 1.81%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the supply of domestic maleic anhydride market is limited, some factories execute early orders, the factories have no inventory pressure, the price is high, and the market is mostly on the sidelines. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.