1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene fell continuously this week, and the price fell broadly. On November 12, the price of mixed xylene was 6220 yuan / ton; On Friday (November 19), the price was 6040 yuan / ton, down 2.89% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 67.31%.

2、 Analysis and review

This week, the international oil price fell broadly and the cost support weakened, which dragged down the mixed xylene market mentality. The downstream demand is weak and the market negotiation atmosphere is light. Sinopec lowered its price and the market followed suit. Demand in North China was ok, with a limited decline during the week. The downstream demand in East China and South China is short, and the price follows the main enterprises to reduce.

In terms of the external market, the external market mixed xylene fell this week. On Friday (November 19), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 780.5 US dollars / ton, down 10 US dollars / ton or 1.27% month on week compared with November 12; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $809 / T, down US $8 / T or 0.98% month on month on November 12.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fluctuated and fell this week, and the price fell broadly. The epidemic situation in Europe worsens again, and the demand for crude oil may be frustrated; The United States may release strategic oil reserves, and the number of active oil rigs in the United States continues to increase this week. The possibility of an increase in crude oil supply also depresses oil prices. Month on month (MOM) on November 12, Brent fell 3.28 USD / barrel, or 3.99%; WTI fell $4.69/barrel, or 5.81%.

Downstream, the trend of PX market was temporarily stable. As of the 19th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 69.77%. As of November 19, the closing prices in Asia were USD 896-898 / T FOB Korea and USD 914-916 / T CFR China.

In terms of ox market, the ox price in East China this week was stable compared with last week. On Friday (November 19), the ox price in East China was 7200 yuan / ton, up 53.19% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell first and then rose this week. On November 19, the price was 8071 yuan / ton, up 3.33% from last week and 54.69% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the recent high gasoline price in the United States may still release strategic reserves. OPEC + still maintained the original production increase plan to support oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The recent trend of crude oil fluctuated and fell, and the market guidelines for mixed xylene were short. Related bulk commodities are generally weak, and the downstream continues to be weak. However, the arrival cargo increases and the supply increases. The trend of mixed xylene in the short term is under pressure, and it is still possible to fall. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and plant dynamics, downstream market and plant dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.

The lead market (11.12-11.19) continued to decline this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15500 yuan / ton last weekend and 14818.75 yuan / ton this weekend, down 4.4% this week.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As shown in the figure above, the lead price has continuously maintained weak operation in recent one month.

The high level of Lun lead fell this week, and the mainstream range is between 2123-2218 US dollars / ton. At the beginning of the week, the trend of Lun lead was boosted by the low LME inventory. Later, with the continuous rise of the US dollar, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the price of Lun lead was dragged down. Shanghai lead fell continuously during the week, and the trend continued to be weak this week under the influence of the market.

The trend of domestic spot lead price mainly follows the trend of Shanghai lead, and it also continued to decline this week. The original lead manufacturers gradually resume production, but some manufacturers are still under maintenance. The recovery of primary lead enterprises is good, and the overall supply side is good. At present, the downstream is purchasing on demand, and the social inventory is still high. The impact of power rationing policy has been ignored. The demand of storage enterprises has recovered well recently, and the supply and demand has improved. However, the high overall inventory is still the main factor restricting the rise of lead price. In the past month, under the restriction of demand recovery but high inventory, the lead price has continued to fluctuate weakly.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of the rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the 46th week of 2021 (11.15-11.19), there are 7 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 9.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were magnesium (11.27%), metallic silicon (5.84%) and tin (1.86%). A total of 11 commodities fell month on month, and the top three products were aluminum (- 3.28%), lead (- 3.22%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (- 2.36%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.13%, and the metal market fell more or less this week.

On the whole, the sharp drop in lead price this week was mainly affected by the sharp rise in LME inventory, and there was little change in the supply and demand side of the domestic market. With the lower price, the downstream procurement was driven, and the market wait-and-see mood was strong. Under the situation of maintaining the stability of fundamentals, it is expected that the future price shock trend will be the main trend, and the downward space is limited.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fell first and then rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 72466.67 yuan / ton, up 1.3% from 71535 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 25.04% from the beginning of the week and 36.96% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has increased by 5 and decreased by 7. Recently, it has fallen more or less.

Macro aspect: this week, the Federal Reserve reduced the taper, and the dollar formed an obvious upward trend to suppress metal prices. Over the weekend, US CPI data were good and oil prices rebounded, and metal prices rebounded sharply.

Supply and demand: although domestic power rationing is weakened, it still continues to affect the release of electrolytic copper. In addition, it is difficult for Northern goods to go south due to road transportation resistance, and the superimposed LME inventory is removed again. After the weakening of power rationing, the operating rate rebounded slightly, but the poor production and sales of real estate affected the overall demand.

LME copper inventories continued to fall this week

Annual comparison chart of copper

According to the annual comparison chart of business society, the price of copper this year is higher than that in the past two years, and the price of copper in the first two years rose slightly after mid November.

To sum up: the copper concentrate processing fee is subject to pressure fluctuation, but due to the considerable profit of sulfuric acid, the refined copper output of the smelter increases slowly. Domestic warehouse receipt inventory decreased, LME copper Warehouse Receipt Inventory fell, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts decreased. The fall of the US dollar and the fall of spot inventory supported the price, but the poor production and sales of real estate affected the overall demand. Copper prices are expected to remain broadly volatile in the short term.

In the middle of the month, the domestic dimethyl ether market trend was weak, and the focus continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4475.00 yuan / ton on November 11 and 4137.50 yuan / ton on November 17, with a decline of 7.54% and 9.96% compared with November 1.

As of November 17, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

Shandong region 4350 yuan / ton

Hebei region 4430 yuan / ton

Henan region 4050-4090 yuan / ton

In mid November, the overall market of dimethyl ether was weak, and the price still fell. The decline in Henan is obvious, followed by the decline in Hebei and Shandong, and the market is difficult to find. In terms of cost, the recent situation of methanol market remains weak, the price falls, the coal price of methanol upstream products falls sharply, the support for methanol cost is weak, there are many methanol restart units, and the inventory in the mainland and ports increases. The decline in raw materials has brought obvious bad news to the market. For the civil market of liquefied gas related products, the civil gas market has stopped falling and rising recently, but the overall fluctuation range is limited, and the support to the dimethyl ether Market is not obvious. The terminal demand is poor, the downstream maintains replenishment on demand, the enthusiasm for entering the market is general, the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is weak, the manufacturers have great pressure on shipment, the prices have been reduced one after another, and the profit making shipment is the main.

Recently, the methanol market continued to decline, mainly due to the weak macro level, the decline of international oil price, more methanol restart devices and the increase of inventory in the mainland and ports. Poor macro sentiment dragged the market down further. Under the background of general shipments, the main production areas in the mainland made a second adjustment with the breaking of futures, but it was still difficult to make large-scale transactions except for the just needed supplement; The downstream inventory in the mainland’s main sales area has fallen to the low point of the year, and the freight has also increased due to the weather, but it is slightly insufficient to support the market price. The falling cost has brought obvious bad news to the dimethyl ether Market.

At present, the raw material methanol market continues to weaken, the cost support is insufficient, the overall fluctuation range of the liquefied gas market of related products is limited, and the support brought to the dimethyl ether Market is not obvious. The downstream market is cautious, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is poor, the manufacturers’ shipping pressure increases, and they mainly give more profits. At present, the dimethyl ether market lacks obvious advantages, and the weakness is difficult to change, It is expected that the dimethyl ether market may still decline in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of November 14, the average price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide enterprises was 173000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on November 8, increased by 4.01% compared with that on October 14, and increased by 56.80% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The market of industrial lithium hydroxide was temporarily stable this week. Recently, the price of raw material spodumene has been strong, the price of lithium carbonate is relatively strong, the cost support is strong, the demand side has improved, the market is relatively stable, and the negotiation focus is stable.

Upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of business society: the price of lithium carbonate is strong this week. On November 14, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 186800 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.08% compared with Monday’s price. On November 14, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 195000 yuan / ton, up 1.04% from Monday.

Lithium hydroxide analysts of business society believe that at present, the cost support is still strong and the supply and demand support is OK. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market may operate at a high level, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in demand.

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was temporarily stable this week. As of the 15th, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4700 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 62.07%.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend remained high, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operated stably. Recently, the supply of goods in the field was normal, the manufacturers had no inventory, the price of liquid ammonia in the upstream of the terminal fell, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. Recently, the demand for nitro compound fertilizer in the downstream is poor. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry is in the peak sales season, and there is more demand for ammonium nitrate. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 4700-4800 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 4200-4400 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 5500-5600 yuan / ton.

The price trend of domestic concentrated nitric acid fell this week. As of the 15th, the average price of domestic nitric acid was 2833.33 yuan / ton, down 9.99% from 3203.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Shaanxi Xinghua offers 2950 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2950 yuan / ton. Recently, the operation of domestic nitric acid plants is stable, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the delivery of goods in the field is poor. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the field has declined, and the price of raw nitric acid has fallen, which is bad for the ammonium nitrate Market. Due to the demand, the trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia fell this week. As of the 15th, the price of liquid ammonia was 4896.67 yuan / ton, down 3.35% from 4980 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The trading center of Shandong, Hebei and other regions moved downward, with an overall decline of more than 200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia was 4400-4600 yuan / ton. On the supply side, the overall supply this week showed a loose pattern, the operating rate in the main production areas was generally high, the liquid ammonia shipments of enterprises in East China, two lakes and other regions increased, some fertilizer enterprises reduced their own use, and a large amount of ammonia release was also an important reason for the increase in supply. The demand for superimposed urea is insufficient and the inventory is higher, which further puts pressure on the supply of liquid ammonia. In addition, some fertilizer enterprises reduce their own use, and a large amount of ammonia release is also an important reason for the increase of supply. The price decline of upstream liquid ammonia has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate remains stable.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is acceptable. The market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal. Recently, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate Market is normal, but the price trend of raw material market is declining, which has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may be slightly lower in the later stage.

Aluminum fluoride prices rose sharply this week

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose sharply this week. As of November 15, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 13833.33 yuan / ton, up 10.67% from 12500 yuan / ton last weekend (November 7); Aluminum fluoride market rose sharply this week.

High price adjustment of raw materials this week

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose at a high level in November. As of November 15, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 14010 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.14% compared with the price of 13990 yuan / ton last weekend (November 7); The price of hydrofluoric acid increased by 3.39% compared with 13550 yuan / ton in early November; The market of downstream refrigerants has maintained a high level in the near future, and the site purchases on demand. The advantages are superimposed on the high price of hydrofluoric acid to maintain stability. The price of hydrofluoric acid is high, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride remains.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite rose at a high level in November, and the price of fluorite rose by 2.03% in November; Affected by the cold wave, the traffic in Inner Mongolia and other places is blocked, the price of fluorite may rise in a short time, the price of fluorite rises, the cost of aluminum fluoride rises, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride increases.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid has risen sharply this week, the price of fluorite has risen, the high price of hydrofluoric acid has increased, the cost of aluminum fluoride has increased, and the rising power of aluminum fluoride has increased. The price range of aluminum ingots in the lower reaches fluctuated and fell, aluminum fluoride was mainly just needed, the equipment operation of aluminum fluoride enterprises decreased, and the supply of aluminum fluoride decreased. The price of aluminum fluoride is expected to rise in the future.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, the copper price fluctuated and rose this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper price was 71470 yuan / ton, up 0.76% from 70933.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 23.32% from the beginning of the week and 37.75% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past three months, it has risen by 4 and fell by 8. Recently, it has fallen more or less.

Macro aspect: a large real estate group heavily indebted paid bond interest on time, which makes people expect that the real estate industry may get more policy support. Domestic real estate risk appetite has warmed up.

Supply and demand: in October, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 49.2%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, continuing to be lower than the critical point, and the outlook of the manufacturing industry has weakened. The transportation of copper concentrate in Northwest China is blocked, and the short-term transportation port inventory is accumulated. China’s energy shortage and rising electricity prices in Europe also pose the risk of reduced demand from metal users. However, copper inventory is still low, LME inventory continues to decline to nearly 100000 tons, and the inventory in the previous period decreased to the low level of 37000 tons, which supports the copper price. China’s export performance was better than expected, the superimposed electrolytic copper production was still limited, and the copper inventory continued to decline, so the copper price was strongly supported.

LME copper inventories continued to fall this week

Annual comparison chart of copper

According to the annual comparison chart of business society, the price of copper this year is higher than that in the past two years, and now the trend is mainly high and volatile.

To sum up: this week, real estate concerns eased, copper inventories were low, the operating rate of downstream processed materials increased slightly month on month, and the short-term support of copper price was acceptable. However, affected by the off-season, it is expected that the short-term copper price will still maintain a wide shock trend.

The price of orthobenzene is still strong this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the quotation of o-xylene continued to rise sharply in November. In early November, Sinopec’s listed executive price was 7200 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton, or 5.22%, compared with 6900 yuan / ton of o-xylene last month. The orthobenzene market is still strong this week.

The rise of the industrial chain market is no longer

According to the monitoring data of business society, the upstream and downstream of the orthobenzene industrial chain fell this week, the price of raw mixed xylene fell by 3.81%, and the price of downstream phthalic anhydride fell by 1.63%. The price of raw materials decreased and the cost of o-xylene decreased; The price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream fell, the demand for orthobenzene decreased, the rise of the industrial chain market was no longer, and the downward pressure on the price of orthobenzene in the future increased.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, since October, the product prices of the adjacent benzene industrial chain have increased by more than 10%. The strong market of the adjacent benzene industrial chain still exists, and the future price of the adjacent benzene is mainly stable.

Market Overview

According to the monitoring of business society, the prices of mixed xylene and downstream phthalic anhydride, the raw material of o-benzene, fell this week, and the rise of o-benzene was not supported. However, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride increased greatly in October, the prices of mixed xylene and phthalic anhydride were still high, the market strength of o-benzene industrial chain still existed, and the price of o-benzene was still strong. It is expected that the price of o-xylene will be strong and stable in the future.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price rose sharply this week, and the quotation fell from 3080.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2694.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 12.53%, a year-on-year increase of 50.22% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market fell sharply this week.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is increased, and the urea supply is insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, down 450 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2640 yuan / ton this weekend, down 410 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Guangzhou Bangyi urea quoted 2800 yuan / ton this weekend, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell sharply this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, and the quotation fell from 8276.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7560.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 8.66%, a year-on-year increase of 103.41% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal fell sharply. The quotation fell from 1505.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1092.50 yuan / ton this weekend, down 27.41%, up 77.50% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 5183.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5046.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.64%, up 61.06% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 20333.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 19633.33 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3.44%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea is down as a whole, which has a negative impact on the price of urea.

From the perspective of demand: the demand increases, the agricultural demand ends, the industrial demand rises, the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is coming, the demand for low-cost urea by the downstream compound fertilizer plant increases, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level. Most of them follow up with the acquisition and use of an appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, the supply decreases, and the daily output of urea is less than 130000 tons. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased and urea supply decreased.

The future price of urea is bearish

In mid and early November, the domestic urea market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period, the supply is tight, the demand for autumn fertilizer will be opened, compound fertilizer plants and large traders begin to take goods, and the industrial demand has increased. However, the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have fallen sharply, the cost support has weakened, and the future urea market price may fluctuate slightly.