In 2021, the phosphorus chemical industry will be in full swing, especially driven by the sharp rise of yellow phosphorus, the products related to the phosphorus chemical industry chain will rise sharply, and the index will rise to the historical height of nearly a decade, which will make the traditional unknown phosphorus chemical industry shine in the environment of the simultaneous rise of the prices of more than 100 kinds of bulk commodities and attract great attention in the industry. Let’s review the trend of products related to this product chain:
On September 30, the phosphorus chemical index was 2253 points, a record high in the cycle, up 200.80% from the lowest point of 749 points on October 7, 2018. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now) according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 5 kinds of commodities rising, 0 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising or falling in the list of phosphorus chemical prices in 2021. The main commodities rising are: yellow phosphorus (151.03%), phosphoric acid (130.10%), phosphate rock (73.95%); The average annual increase and decrease of this year was 89.66%.
In 2021, domestic phosphorus ores rose step by step, with an annual increase of nearly 74%
It can be seen from the column chart of phosphate rock monitored by the business society in 2021 and the annual comparison chart of phosphate rock price that the domestic phosphate rock Market in 2021 increased to varying degrees in other months except February. The largest increase was in September, the phosphate rock increased by 10.92% in that month, and the smallest increase was in February. The phosphate rock Market in that month was stable without fluctuation. The market trend of phosphorus ore in 2021 is also unprecedented in the market in recent ten years. At the end of the year, the average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore of 690 yuan / ton also set a new market high in recent ten years.
Over the past 10 years, the problems of overcapacity, serious environmental pollution and low resource utilization efficiency in China’s phosphorus chemical industry have restricted the development of phosphorus chemical industry. The primary objectives of China’s phosphorus chemical industry reform are to reduce production capacity, strengthen environmental protection measures, optimize industry resource allocation and create an integrated strategy of phosphorus chemical mining and production. The phosphorus ore market output continues to gradually decrease or will continue to be the mainstream trend of the market in the future. Therefore, the phosphorus ore data division of business society believes that most domestic phosphorus ores will continue to operate at a high level in 2022, and there is little chance of a sharp decline in the market. More attention should be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.
Yellow phosphorus rose by an unprecedented 150% this year
According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus rose sharply. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the year (January 1) was 16200 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 40666.67 yuan / ton. The price rose sharply during the year, with a range of 151.02%. In 2021, under the power restriction and environmental protection policies, the operating rate of many production enterprises in China’s yellow phosphorus industry could not be improved, the yellow phosphorus market was always in a state of insufficient supply, and the yellow phosphorus price continued to remain high. The price of yellow phosphorus has been adjusted at a high level for a long time. Most downstream traders are mainly on the sidelines. End customers have obvious resistance to high-end prices. They are more cautious in taking goods. They are more on the sidelines in the field and focus on sporadic procurement in the downstream, which is difficult to form a strong support for the market. With the resumption of production of yellow phosphorus enterprises in Guizhou put on the agenda, it is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be reduced to a certain extent in 2022.
The focus of phosphoric acid market moved upward, with an annual increase of 130%
In 2021, the phosphoric acid market rose steadily in the first half of the year and fell sharply in the second half of the year, with the highest point rising to a new high in recent ten years. According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on December 31 was 11466.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 6483 yuan over the price of 4983.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year. The lowest price of the whole year was 4983 yuan / ton in January, and the highest price of the whole year was 20000 yuan / ton in October, an increase of 130.1% during the year. The phosphoric acid Market in 2021 was different from that in previous years. Affected by the dual control policy of energy consumption, the raw material yellow phosphorus enterprises had serious power restriction and reduced production capacity, resulting in a sharp rise in the price of phosphoric acid this year, which led to a sharp rise in the adverse situation of the collective decline of bulk commodities in the first half of the year, and rose to the height of nearly a decade in September, and then fell back. In 2022, with the recovery of macro economy, the prices of various chemicals are gradually falling, and the price of phosphoric acid is expected to decline with the cost.
Monoammonium phosphate rose strongly, up 45% during the year
According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 2116 yuan / ton on January 1 and 3083 yuan / ton on December 24. The overall increase in the whole year was 45.67% and the maximum increase in the year was 70.08%. The highest price of monoammonium phosphate in the year is 3600 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the year is 2083 yuan / ton. In 2021, the price of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise from the beginning of the year. After rising to the highest price in August, the market began to decline to the end of the year. The biggest increase in the year was in June, up 22.29%. The biggest decline in the year was in November, with a decline of 4.85%. The market of monoammonium phosphate is generally good in 2021. Due to the tight supply, cost support, demand boost and other favorable factors, the price showed an upward trend in the first three quarters as a whole. At the end of the year, the market price of monoammonium phosphate began to fall due to the low demand. The atmosphere in the venue was cold and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement decreased. At present, the monoammonium phosphate Market has not shown favorable factors for the time being. The year is approaching the end, and the market is expected to be dominated by weak operation.
Diammonium phosphate showed strong performance, with an increase of 47% during the year
According to the bulk list data of business society, the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on January 1 was 2440 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of 64% diammonium on December 24 was 3600 yuan / ton. The overall increase in the whole year was 47.54%, and the maximum increase in the year was 48.57%. The highest price of diammonium phosphate in the year is 3625 yuan / ton, and the lowest price in the year is 2440 yuan / ton. In 2021, the price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise from the beginning of the year. After rising to the highest price in August, it began to operate smoothly until the end of the year. The biggest increase in the year was in February, with an increase of 16.47%. The biggest decline in the year was in April, with a decline of 1.59%. In 2021, the price of diammonium phosphate continued to rise from the beginning of the year. After rising to the highest price in August, it began to operate smoothly until the end of the year. The biggest increase in the year was in February, with an increase of 16.47%. The biggest decline in the year was in April, with a decline of 1.59%. In 2021, the market of diammonium phosphate was generally strong. Since the beginning of the year, the price has risen continuously to a high level. Due to power and production restriction and environmental protection, the price of raw materials rose, the supply of diammonium was insufficient, the downstream demand was actively followed up, and multiple advantages led to the sharp rise of diammonium market. At the end of the year, demand began to weaken and ended weakly and steadily. It is expected that the recent market will be dominated by weak and stable operation.
The demand for lithium iron phosphate soared in 2021, with an annual increase of 167.57%
In 2021, the price of lithium iron phosphate was 37000 yuan / ton in January and 99000 yuan / ton as of December 27. The overall increase of the whole year was 167.57%, reaching 62000 yuan / ton. According to statistics, the capacity of lithium iron phosphate in 2020 was 320000 tons, and the capacity of lithium iron phosphate was estimated to reach 920000 tons by December 2021. The capacity also doubled from 2009, With its low-cost and cost-effective characteristics, lithium iron phosphate has returned to people’s attention. In the fierce industry competition, it has become the mainstream of the new era from obscurity to now. Its future development prospects are all the way to good. The rapid development of lithium iron phosphate also drives the explosive growth of upstream raw materials, the price is rising all the way, and the supply side continues to be tight. At present, lithium iron phosphate is still in the stage of rapid development. Under the strong stimulation of short supply, lithium iron phosphate capacity projects continue to expand and increase production. It is expected that the increase projects will be released in 2022, the market supply of lithium iron phosphate will be alleviated, and the market share will further increase. It is expected that the expansion of enterprises and the rise of prices will move forward side by side in the next year.
Future forecast
In 2021, phosphorus chemical industry was subject to multiple factors such as double control of energy consumption, production and electricity restriction, and the phosphorus chemical industry index soared. In addition to the main factors of rising raw materials and short-term imbalance between supply and demand, there was also the help of new energy factors. In 2021, lithium iron phosphate, the most downstream of the whole phosphorus chemical industry, soared due to the surge in demand. For the upstream phosphorus chemical enterprises of new energy materials, it is not intended to be a potential incremental demand market, but also increased the attention of the phosphorus chemical industry sector in the industry. As phosphorus chemical industry itself is a highly polluting industry, with the increase of China’s environmental protection measures and the limited capacity expansion of phosphorus chemical industry, the mining volume of phosphorus ore in China has continued to decline in recent years, and the tightening of supply will continue until 2022, which will be transmitted to all products of phosphorus chemical industry from top to bottom. At the same time, affected by the concept of new energy vehicles, the demand for lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, Thus, the demand for industrial grade phosphoric acid and monoammonium phosphate has increased greatly. Driven by the dual engine of agriculture and industry, the transformation and upgrading of phosphorus chemical industry has entered the field of new energy, and the industry prospect is promising.