In mid February, the overall trend of the domestic propane market was weak, the Shandong market showed twists and turns, and the price focus shifted downward. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6138.25 yuan / ton on February 13 and 6000.75 yuan / ton on February 21, with a decline of 2.24% and an increase of 42.28% compared with the same period last year.

As of February 21, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region February 21st

East China 5900-6050 yuan / ton

North China 5850-6000 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5950-6050 yuan / ton

Northeast China 6000-6150 yuan / ton

In mid February, the overall trend of Shandong propane market was weak, and the price fell to 6000 yuan / ton. Due to the weak terminal demand, the action force of propane market is insufficient, and the price falls. Subsequently, supported by the high international crude oil price, the price in Shandong rebounded slightly and rose steadily. However, the restriction caused by weak demand is obvious, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry is not high, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is limited, and the price returns to weakness again.

Saudi Aramco announced in February 2022 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was $775 / ton, up $35 / ton from the previous month; Butane is 775 dollars / ton, up 65 dollars / ton from the previous month.

On the whole, the current market in the south is relatively stable and the market trend in the north is weak, but the international crude oil is rising, and the news is good for the market mentality. In addition, the price of civil gas has increased, which has brought a certain boost to the market. Most manufacturers’ inventories are in a controllable state. It is expected that the price decline in the propane market is limited in the short term, mainly strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1380 yuan / ton on February 14 and 1320 yuan / ton on February 21. The price of ammonium sulfate fell 4.35% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market of ammonium sulfate is weak and the trend is sluggish this week. Domestic and foreign demand is weakened, and the downstream just needs to purchase. At present, the delivery price of the manufacturer is reduced due to the cold delivery atmosphere. As of February 21, coking grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1200-1300 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shanxi is 1100-1300 yuan / ton. Hexene grade ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 1300-1350 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market rose slightly this week, with an increase of about 50 yuan / ton. The price of compound fertilizer raw materials rose slightly this week, and the enterprise owner issued early orders. The price of urea fell, and the prices of phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer rose. In the short term, compound fertilizer will operate at a high level, and ammonium sulfate will be mainly purchased on demand.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that at present, the domestic demand for ammonium sulfate is weak, foreign orders are reduced, and manufacturers digest inventory and reduce prices one after another. The downstream is mainly rigid and needs to be purchased. It is expected that ammonium sulfate will mainly run downward in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, as of February 20, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 5780.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 1.94% from 5670.00 yuan / ton on February 14.

On February 20, the fuel oil commodity index was 117.06, unchanged from yesterday, down 5.86% from the highest point of 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 154.04% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The shortage of domestic marine oil raw materials and the rising price support the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of February 20, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 5900 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 120 CST fuel oil was 6000 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 5850 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 5950 yuan / ton.

Crude oil prices remained at a high level this week, mainly driven by the risk expectation of supply interruption. Under the background that the output increase of OPEC + and its allies did not meet the expectation, the tension between Russia and Ukraine heated up the expectation of crude oil supply interruption. In addition, in the post epidemic era, the global economy continues to recover, and the growth expectation of fuel demand also supports oil prices.

Singapore’s increased fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of February 16, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory surged 1.972 million barrels, reaching a five-month high of 24.128 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate stocks fell by 152000 barrels to a three week low of 14.15 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate oil depot rose 25000 barrels to a two-week high of 7.461 million barrels.

Aftermarket forecast: the international crude oil price is high, and the shortage of raw material resources in the ship fuel market supports the fuel oil price, but the terminal demand is light, the transaction is dominated by small orders, the purchasing mood is general, and it is mainly on the sidelines. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 5800-5900 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 5850-5950 yuan / ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may be dominated by high-level consolidation in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices rose this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 7333.33 yuan / ton on the first five days of last week and 7483.33 yuan on the weekend Yuan / ton, the price rose by 2.05% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison chart of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from November to January

The isopropanol market rose first and then fell this week. The overall market trading atmosphere is general, and traders have a strong wait-and-see mood. Up to now, most of the quotations of isopropanol in Shandong are about 7200-7400 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of isopropanol in Jiangsu is about 7500-7600 yuan / ton; The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 7500 yuan / ton. Internationally, on February 15, isopropanol in the United States closed stable, while isopropanol in Europe closed stable and fell.

In terms of raw material acetone, the market price of acetone was basically stable this week. Enquiries are limited, transactions are limited, and the negotiation atmosphere is cold. In the face of this market, the holders had to offer lower prices and the shipment sentiment increased. The supply of short-term imported goods is limited, and the inventory of phenol ketone factory is moderate. According to the commodity data monitoring, the average price of acetone is 6000 yuan / ton so far. The business community expects the market shock to weaken in the short term.

In terms of raw material propylene, the price of propylene fell this week. The mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) was 7950-8050 yuan / ton. Polypropylene futures continued to decline. The market mentality was bearish. The focus of negotiation shifted downward, the cost support weakened, the wait-and-see mood was obvious, and the price was under pressure.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that at present, the export orders of domestic factories are mainly, the inventory is low, and the domestic isopropanol market demand is general. The price of acetone was relatively stable, the price of propylene fell, and the support of raw materials for isopropanol was limited. The price of isopropanol is expected to be stable in the short term.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1286.67 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1270.00 yuan / ton, down 1.30%. The current price rose 7.02% month on month, and the current price rose 6.72% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

The market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that formaldehyde was mainly stable before the Spring Festival. The market rose sharply last week and fell slightly this week. As of February 17, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1280-1350 yuan / ton. Feicheng Dongming Chemical Co., Ltd. has not started yet. Recently, formaldehyde enterprises have started work one after another and shipped steadily. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the market shows a downward trend.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of February 17:

Region, Price

East China 1320 yuan / ton

Central China 1400 yuan / ton

Northwest China 1120 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has fallen recently. The negotiated price of methanol in southern Shandong is around 2640 yuan / ton, and the factory provides cash exchange. Linyi receives local goods for negotiation, and the price is delivered to cash exchange around 2640 yuan / ton. The price of logistics goods is low. The downstream receiving is general. The negotiated price of methanol market in central Shandong is 2460-2480 yuan / ton, which is sent to cash exchange. The local methanol factory in central Shandong reports to 2750-2800 yuan / ton, and the factory withdraws cash exchange. The transaction is general. The transaction of methanol market in Dongying, Shandong Province was 2430-2480 yuan / ton, which was delivered to cash exchange. The transaction was general, and the freight increased.

This week, before and after the Lantern Festival, the formaldehyde market fluctuated slightly. This week, the formaldehyde manufacturer has not fully started construction, and the manufacturers that have started shipping normally, so there is no inventory pressure for the time being. The downstream start-up was low, the just needed procurement was maintained, and the formaldehyde market fell.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has fallen, the cost support is weak and the downstream demand is general. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society expects that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of baking soda was temporarily stable this week, and the average market price from the beginning of the week to Friday was 2416.67 yuan / ton. The price of baking soda remained temporarily stable this week. On February 13, the commodity index of baking soda was 160.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.99% from the highest point 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 81.72% from the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is stable for the time being, and the demand in the downstream market is generally in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2200-2500 yuan / ton. Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong this week, and the market is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2200-2400 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is weak, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2300-2500 yuan / ton. The manufacturer is mainly active in shipping and has a strong price increase mentality. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash in the week was 83%.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda from medicine, textile and food is cautious in the near future, the demand is general, and the actual shipment is general. As for raw materials, domestic soda ash is in a strong mood, with stable and good operation. However, in the near future, the downstream has a cautious purchasing mentality, general demand, resistance to high priced soda ash and market game mentality. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general in the near future, and the game mentality lingers. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda may maintain the consolidation operation in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic EVA market continued to operate strongly, and the price rose steadily. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic EVA was 17833.33 yuan / ton on February 7 and 18133.33 yuan / ton on February 14, with an increase of 1.68% during the week and 5.63% compared with January 15.

As of February 14, the ex factory quotation of EVA is as follows:

product manufactor model Ex factory price

EVA yanshan petrochemical 18J3 17500 yuan / ton

EVA Beijing Organic Y2022 17700 yuan / ton

EVA BASF Yangzi V5110J 19200 yuan / ton

After the Spring Festival, the domestic EVA market offer was strong, and the overall price remained stable. The ex factory price of individual petrochemical enterprises increased, and the overall fluctuation range was small. After the Spring Festival, there are few downstream factories to resume work, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is limited, and the mentality of the operators is more cautious. There is little pressure on upstream inventory, and the mentality is relatively strong.

At present, the upstream ethylene market is driven by the rise in international crude oil prices, which continues to rise, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. However, the current market demand is limited, the downstream is gradually restored, and the demand may increase in the later stage. It is expected that the price of EVA market will continue to be strong in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 296.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 234.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 20.95%, up 26.49% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week. On February 13, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 61.58, unchanged from yesterday, down 55.34% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 242.49% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Weak upstream support and general downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid offered 300 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wenshui is 130 yuan / ton this weekend, which is 160 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 50 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid is quoted at 90 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng Sanan hydrochloric acid is quoted at 600 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine is general, which weakens the support for hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream polyaluminium chloride fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 2507.50 yuan / ton last weekend to 2360.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 5.88%, up 31.72% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride increased slightly, and the quotation increased from 1075.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1195.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 11.16%. On the whole, downstream products are not enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which has a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Future forecast

The upstream liquid chlorine market has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride Market protect the rise and fall, and the downstream purchase intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic bisphenol a market has a good start, which is mainly affected by the upstream raw materials and supported by the cost side. During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil rebounded sharply, the raw material pure benzene phenol / acetone rose, and bisphenol A and downstream liquid epoxy resin / PC followed up. After the festival, major domestic factories released short-term maintenance plans, and the factories increased by 400-500 yuan / ton. After the festival, Changchun chemical bisphenol a rose to 19000 yuan / ton, followed by the market to 19000 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer in East China was 18562 yuan / ton on February 7, and the average market offer rose to 19000 yuan / ton on February 11, with an overall increase of 2.36% during the week.

After the festival, the support of double raw materials is strong, the raw material market remains high, and the mentality of all nodes of the industrial chain is positive under the support of cost. The phenol factory rose again, and the market also rose 100-200 again. Up to now, the factory’s guiding price is 11400-11500 yuan / ton, and the market offer in East China is 11350-11400 yuan / ton. The acetone market is steadily rising, and the factories are collectively adjusted after the festival. The mainstream offer of the factories is 6000 yuan / ton. So far, the negotiation in East China is 6000 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas is 6000 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China is 6100 yuan / ton.

Downstream epoxy resin followed the upward trend, and the market continued to operate at a high level under the support of cost.

The domestic epoxy resin market offer is stable, the dual raw materials are at a high level, and the cost is difficult to fluctuate. So far, the liquid epoxy resin market offer in East China is 28800-29800 yuan / ton, delivered in barrels, and the solid resin market offer is 24500-24800 yuan / ton. In particular, liquid epoxy resin increased by 1500-2000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival.

From the perspective of business society, the supply of bisphenol a market after the festival is still not abundant, the cost support is strong, and the downstream epoxy resin is also gradually improving. On Thursday, the bidding in East China rose to 17000 yuan / ton, compared with 1500 yuan / ton before the festival. After a period of rise, it also depends on the terminal digestion. Business society expects the bisphenol a market to maintain a high and stable situation in the short term

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 10, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 11766 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9366 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 2400 yuan / ton, or 25.62%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that on the first day of construction after the Spring Festival, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong ushered in a sharp rise, which has exceeded 27% in just three days. During the Spring Festival holiday, the rise of crude oil gave the operators some confidence. In addition, the spot supply of n-butanol on the site was tight. On the first day of construction (the 7th), the large n-butanol plant in Shandong resumed opening, that is, the ex factory price of n-butanol was significantly increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. The ex factory price of n-butanol of the plant was referred to as 11800 yuan / ton. The overall atmosphere in the venue is improving. Other large factories have also raised the ex factory price of n-butanol by 1500-2200 yuan / ton. On the 7th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was referred to as 11100-12000 yuan / ton. On the 8th, supported by the small supply pressure of the factory and the opening of demand after the festival, the trading atmosphere on the site was more active, and the center of gravity of n-butanol continued to move upward. On the 8th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 11500-12000 yuan / ton. On the 9th, the downstream demand slowed down, the n-butanol market operated smoothly, and the downstream resisted high prices. On the 10th, the offer of Shandong n-butanol large factory was lowered by 200 yuan / ton. The price adjustment of large factory has loosened the overall market of n-butanol, but the overall performance of the market is still high. As of the 10th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 11500-11800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 11766 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 25% after the festival.

In terms of upstream propylene, after the festival, the domestic propylene market ushered in a wave of rise, in which propylene (Shandong) rose to 8300-8350 yuan / ton. The long-span rise in prices is mainly affected by two factors. First, crude oil prices rose strongly during the Spring Festival, forming obvious support on the cost side; Second, the supply and demand side of propylene has not been fully restored, some propylene plants have not returned to work, and the transportation is not smooth due to festivals and weather, resulting in tight supply in the region and further contributing to the rise of propylene. Forecast: in terms of cost and supply and demand, there is still some room for propylene to rise in the short-term market.

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-butanol has a weakening trend, and the support of the supply side is OK. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong is more stable, medium and narrow adjustment and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the changes of supply and demand.