According to the data of business agency, as of March 6, the average price of domestic fuel oil 180CST was 6080.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up 2.18% from 5950.00 yuan / ton on February 28.

On March 6, the fuel oil commodity index was 123.14, unchanged from yesterday, down 0.97% from the highest point 124.35 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 167.23% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The high international crude oil price and the rising price of domestic marine oil raw materials support the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of March 6, the self raised low sulfur quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Zhoushan area was 6200 yuan / ton, and the self raised low sulfur quotation of 6300 yuan / ton; The quotation of 180 CST fuel oil and 120 CST fuel oil in Shanghai is 6100 yuan / ton, and the quotation of 120 CST fuel oil is 6200 yuan / ton.

International crude oil prices soared. The news of IEA member states releasing crude oil reserves did not cool the overheated oil market, and international crude oil futures still rose sharply. It is difficult for Russia and Ukraine to reach a satisfactory outcome in the negotiations, the war in Ukraine is difficult to calm down in the short term, and oil prices soared amid the increasing expectation of energy supply interruption. Judging from the amount of crude oil reserves released by IEA Member States, 2 million barrels are released every day for 30 days, and the total release is only 60 million barrels. At present, Russia’s crude oil output is about 10 million barrels / day, which is only Russia’s output in six days, which is a drop in the bucket. At present, the Western camp’s sanctions against Russia have increased “swift”, known as the financial “nuclear bomb” level sanctions. Some Russian banks will not be able to conduct cross-border trade settlement under this system, which will be a fatal blow to Russia’s energy exports. The market is generally worried about the interruption of energy supply in the future. Instead of calming the oil price, the IEA declaration made the oil price reach a new high in the sound of panic.

Singapore’s rising fuel stocks have limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that the Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of March 2, Singapore’s fuel inventory rose 368000 barrels to a two-week high of 21.738 million barrels. As of the week of March 2, Singapore’s medium distillate stocks rose 563000 barrels to a one month high of 7.918 million barrels. As of the week of March 2, Singapore’s light distillate oil inventory decreased by 688000 barrels to a more than one month low of 13.756 million barrels.

Future forecast: the sharp rise of international crude oil and the rise of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market support the price of fuel oil, but the terminal demand is general, the transaction is mainly on demand and wait-and-see. The market price of fuel oil 180CST low sulfur is about 6000-6200 yuan / ton, and the market price of fuel oil 120cst low sulfur is about 6100-6300 yuan / ton. Due to cost constraints, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market may continue to rise in the near future.

The price of acetic anhydride stabilized after falling this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride stabilized after falling this week. As of March 7, the price of acetic anhydride was 6725 yuan / ton, down 1.82% from 6850 yuan / ton on February 28 at the beginning of last week. The actual transaction price fell below 6500 yuan / ton, touching the cost price of some manufacturers.

The price of raw material acetic acid stopped falling and rebounded

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society that the price of acetic acid stabilized after falling this week, with a decrease of 0.92%. The price of acetic acid stopped falling and rebounded this week, the market of acetic acid stabilized, the cost of acetic anhydride stabilized, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride weakened.

The price of raw material methanol fluctuated and rose

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club, the methanol price fluctuated and rose this week. On March 7, the methanol price was 2855 yuan / ton, up 6.93% from 2670 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. This week, the methanol price rose, the methanol market warmed up, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride weakened, and the upward momentum increased.

Outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, the price of acetic acid stopped falling and stabilized this week, the price of methanol fluctuated and rose, the cost of acetic anhydride rose, the market of acetic anhydride recovered, the price of acetic anhydride manufacturers approached the cost line, and the falling space of acetic anhydride weakened. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is insufficient, the supply is sufficient, the cost of acetic anhydride rises, the price approaches the cost line, some manufacturers fall below the cost line, and the falling space of acetic anhydride is limited. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will stabilize in the future.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market fell last week, and the spot prices of various brands fell to a certain extent. As of March 7, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 33500 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 1.47% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the adipic acid Market in East China fluctuates, arranges and operates, the market is stable and small, and the manufacturer is willing to support the price. However, the supporting effect of raw material pure benzene is strengthened, and the adipic acid market is expected to strengthen. Adiponitrile has recently been affected by the news of domestic production lines, the level of port arrival is general, and the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The price of adipic acid, the upstream raw material, is generally stable, the change of adiponitrile supply is limited, and the cost side support of PA66 is general. At present, the operating rate of the industry is at a high level, and the load level of domestic PA66 industry has basically returned to normal. The inventory position in Hong Kong is not high, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is limited. In terms of demand, the current buyer’s follow-up situation is biased towards just need to maintain production. The buyer camp has strong resistance to high price sources, and the merchant’s shipment fluency is poor. The transaction resistance on the floor increased, the seller’s mentality was affected, and the range of offer negotiation was expanded last week.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 continued to fall last week. The improvement of adiponitrile market on the raw material side is limited, the adipic acid market is concussive, and the cost side support of PA66 is general. The load of PA66 enterprise is in a high position, and the support of the supply side to the spot is weak. Downstream users have deep resistance to high price sources. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish and the market momentum is insufficient. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak market in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of March 4, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8600 yuan / ton. Compared with February 27 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8083 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 517 yuan / ton, or 6.39%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that this week, the domestic n-propanol market showed an upward trend as a whole. Since the beginning of this week, the market situation of n-propanol in Shandong has also been running up slightly. Some n-propanol suppliers in the field have slightly increased the ex factory price of n-propanol by 50-100 yuan / ton. Near the weekend, with the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the demand side support has been strengthened, and the trading atmosphere in the field of n-propanol has improved, Positive suppliers of n-propanol factories have significantly increased the ex factory price of n-propanol by around 400-600 yuan / ton. As of March 4, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 7600-8150 yuan / ton, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is stable, and the ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, on March 3, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1246-1256 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1246-1256 / ton, and the international crude oil futures price fell. The US Iran nuclear negotiations have made some progress, and Iranian oil has returned to the international supply market, which has alleviated the tension of supply to a certain extent. On March 3, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $107.67/barrel, down US $2.93 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $110.46/barrel, down US $2.47 or 2.2%. Affected by the decline of upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market in the later stage may mainly fall below.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of n-propanol market is warm, and the downstream demand has improved. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is mostly stable, medium and strong, and the specific changes in supply and demand need to be paid more attention to.

Trend of magnesium in February

The price curve of magnesium market in February can be described as twists and turns. Specifically, when returning to the market after the festival at the beginning of the month, the market price is relatively stable without the support of bad and good consumers. In the second half of this month, the price of magnesium began its downward channel, closing down 9.26% in a week. The downstream transaction was sluggish and lacked favorable support. At the end of the month, the market rebounded again, rising 12.65% a week, which caught many people in the industry off guard. According to the price data of business agency, as of February 27, the market tax included spot exchange was 46000 yuan / ton, up about 3000 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of 6.98%.

Market analysis

In terms of market: when the Spring Festival holiday comes back, there are not many purchases when the downstream inventory is temporarily digested, the demand performance is relatively mild, and the power of price rise is insufficient. After the Lantern Festival, the demand release was less than expected, and the overall transaction rhythm was slow. When the magnesium price fell to the buyer’s psychological price, the market transaction enthusiasm increased.

In terms of inventory: according to the business agency, the market transaction improved last week, and the inventory of magnesium plants gradually decreased. It is learned from traders that the current magnesium price is at a high level, and the inventory situation of each factory is different. The spot inventory of some magnesium plants is in a hurry, so they do not offer for the time being, which highlights the reluctance to sell.

Policy: the environmental protection policy continues to affect the price of magnesium ingots. Recently, the market once again heard the news that the transformation policy of Yulin blue carbon furnace will be implemented, and the magnesium market will make waves again. Stimulated by this news, the market trading atmosphere heated up again last week, the panic of downstream customers spread, the procurement was extremely active, and the procurement began with foreign orders.

Future forecast

At present, the price is at a high level, the actual high price acceptance of downstream customers is limited, the procurement operation is more cautious, the upward driving force of magnesium price is weakened, while the inventory pressure of magnesium plant is small as a whole, and the factory has a strong willingness to support the price due to the impact of environmental protection policies. According to business analysts, the price of magnesium ingots remained high and stable in March, and the expected impact of the upcoming transformation of blue carbon facilities in Yulin on the price of magnesium ingots only involves some magnesium enterprises in Yulin, which has a relatively small impact on the supply and demand of magnesium ingots. For the future market, the market demand follow-up is ahead of the policy.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of February 27, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refined hydrogenated naphtha was 9035.75 yuan / ton, up 18.68% from 7613.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the overall price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha rose.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of February 27, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refined straight run naphtha was 8782.50 yuan / ton, up 16.21% from 7557.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined straight run naphtha rose as a whole.

On February 27, the naphtha commodity index was 111.52, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 164.02% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of local refined naphtha rose as a whole this month. At present, the mainstream price of local refined hydrogenated naphtha is about 8900-9100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 8700-8900 yuan / ton. During the Spring Festival, the sharp rise of international crude oil drove the naphtha market to rise continuously. After the festival, businesses actively replenished goods to boost the naphtha market; Affected by the fluctuation of crude oil, the trend of naphtha market in the last ten days, and the naphtha start-up in the local refining market was low. As of the week of February 23, Singapore’s fuel stocks fell 2.758 million barrels to a more than one month low of 21.37 million barrels. Singapore’s medium distillate stocks fell 106000 barrels to a more than one month low of 7.356 million barrels. Singapore’s light distillate inventories rose 294000 barrels to a three week high of 14.444 million barrels.

Upstream: the rise of international crude oil in February was mainly due to the escalating geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, which led to the continuous rise of oil prices. From the fundamentals of supply and demand, the oil market is also in a tight balance. In recent months, the increase in production of the organization of petroleum exporting countries and its allies (OPEC +) has not reached the target. Some countries have difficulties in increasing production, which has led to the tension of supply. In addition, in the post epidemic era, The continuous recovery of demand and the steady increase of fuel demand also provide preconditions for the rise of oil prices.

Downstream: after the wide rise of toluene in February, it maintained a volatile trend and rose again in late February. The price of toluene was 6060 yuan / ton on February 1 and 7370 yuan / ton on February 25, up 21.62% from the beginning of the month. Mixed xylene rose in a wide range in February and entered the range of shock trend, and the price rose again near the end of the month. On February 1, the price of mixed xylene was 6240 yuan / ton; On February 25, the price was 7830 yuan / ton, up 25.48% from the beginning of the month. The price of p-xylene rose sharply in February. By the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 8000 yuan / ton, up 9.59% from 7300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the sharp rise in international crude oil prices supports the naphtha market. At present, the naphtha operation in the local refining market is low, and the middlemen and downstream procurement are cautious, focusing on just demand. It is expected that the local refining naphtha may continue to rise in the near future.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price first rose and then fell this month. The quotation first rose from 15400.99 yuan / ton on February 1 to 17833.33 yuan / ton on February 13, an increase of 15.80%, and then fell to 13933.33 yuan / ton on February 28, a decrease of 21.87%. Overall, the isobutyraldehyde market rose first and then fell this month, with a decline of 9.52% for the whole month.

Domestic isobutyraldehyde market in February

manufactor February 1st February 13th February 28th

Li Huayi 15500 yuan / ton 17500 yuan / ton 14000 yuan / ton

Shandong Zhenkun 14500 yuan / ton 18000 yuan / ton 13500 yuan / ton

Hualu Hengsheng 16200 yuan / ton 18000 yuan / ton 14300 yuan / ton

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this month, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is weakened. The quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde at the end of the month is 14000 yuan / ton, which is 1500 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 13500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which fell by 1000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde offered 14300 yuan / ton at the end of the month, which fell by 1900 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

The upstream support is good and the downstream demand is weakened

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose first, then fell and then rose this month. The quotation increased from 7750.80 yuan / ton on February 1 to 8375.50 yuan / ton on February 28, an increase of 8.06%, down 2.09% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The cost support was good, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde. The market price of downstream neopentyl glycol first rose and then fell. The quotation first rose from 16647.33 yuan / ton on February 1 to 20500.00 yuan / ton on February 23, an increase of 23.11%, and then fell to 19666.67 yuan / ton on February 28, a decrease of 4.07%. The downstream market rose first and then fell, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde weakened.

The market outlook fell slightly

The domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate slightly in the middle and first ten days of March. The price of propylene in the upstream has stopped falling and rebounded recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. However, the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream has decreased slightly, the enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde in the downstream has weakened, and the product trend has declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda first rose and then fell in February and fell at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of Shandong market was 917.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of Shandong market was about 1087.5 yuan / ton. The price was 18.53%, and the price increased by 137.7% compared with the same period last year. On February 27, the caustic soda commodity index was 158.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.25% from the highest point of 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 143.63% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of caustic soda rose this month. At the beginning of this month, the average price of 32 liquid caustic soda in the mainstream market in Shandong was about 890-1050 yuan / ton. The enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to receive goods has improved, and some caustic soda enterprises have less inventory. It is comprehensively expected that the price of caustic soda will run better in the near future, depending on the demand of the downstream market. Caustic soda prices rose in the middle of the month. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1050-1150 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 1150-1250 yuan / ton. This is mainly due to the maintenance of the main caustic soda plant, the reduction of inventory and the positive downstream demand. At the end of the month, the price of caustic soda went down. Now the price of caustic soda in Shandong has tended to be flat in the near future. The recent demand of the downstream is mostly purchased on demand, and the mood of receiving goods is general. It is comprehensively estimated that the price of caustic soda is weak in the near future,

According to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the 8th week of 2022 (2.21-2.25), there were 1 kind of goods rising, 2 kinds of goods falling and 2 kinds of goods falling to 0. The main commodities rising are: hydrochloric acid (1.53%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (- 2.43%) and PVC (- 2.31%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.64%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the downstream operation of caustic soda is poor, the demand slows down, and the inventory rises. It is comprehensively expected that the subsequent weak operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

In February 2022, the domestic 1# antimony ingot market continued to rise. The average price of the domestic market was 74500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 77500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 4.03%.

On February 24, the antimony commodity index was 107.89, up 1.05 points from yesterday, down 3.72% from the highest point of 112.06 points in the cycle (2021-11-04), and up 129.65% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the antimony ingot Market has maintained a stable upward trend in the near future.

In February, the price of domestic antimony ingots fluctuated upward. After the festival, with the resumption of work of most enterprises and the recovery of logistics, the market trading became more active and the market price was dominated. Recently, the seller’s reluctance to sell has been strengthened, the market trading is more enthusiastic, the market price is higher, and a small amount of replenishment transactions in the downstream. The overall trading of the market is still relatively cold. It is still based on demand, with limited overall transactions. It is expected that the market price will continue to maintain a stable, medium and strong trend. In the future, we will focus on the resumption of production of relevant enterprises.

In terms of price, as of the 25th, the domestic market had 2# antimony ingots of 76000 yuan / ton, 1# antimony ingots of 78000 yuan / ton and 0# antimony ingots of 79000 yuan / ton.

The external market price rose slightly this month, and the market supply is still tight. It is expected that the wait-and-see mood in the future market is still strong, and the price of antimony ingot is expected to be stable, medium and strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on February 24 was 10040 yuan / ton, an increase of 73 yuan / ton compared with 9966.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, an increase of 0.74% within the month and 94.95% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In February, the phosphoric acid market continued to decline in the first half of the month, and began to stop falling and rise in the second half of the month, rising to the level at the beginning of the month. After the Spring Festival, as the raw material yellow phosphorus fluctuated little after the festival, and some phosphoric acid enterprises resumed work after the Lantern Festival, the phosphoric acid market was stable and small, the enterprise offer was multi-dimensional, the trading atmosphere was not active, and the prices of some enterprises began to decline. After the Lantern Festival, most phosphoric acid enterprises return to the market. Except that some areas in the north are delayed due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games, the construction in other areas is gradually increasing, and the downstream demand is also recovering actively. In terms of cost, the spot of raw material yellow phosphorus is tight, the price rises to about 35000, and enterprises are reluctant to sell, the cost support is strong, and the market price of phosphoric acid rises. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current quotation in Sichuan is 9500-10000 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, that in Hubei is 10500-11000 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 10500-11500 yuan / ton, and that in Jiangsu is 9500-12000 yuan / ton.

region product Specifications date Price (yuan / ton)

Sichuan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade February 18th 9500-10000

Yunnan region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade February 18th 9000-9500

Jiangsu region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade February 18th 9500-12000

Hubei region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade February 18th 10500-11000

Shandong region phosphoric acid 85% industrial grade February 18th 10500-11500

For phosphate rock, on February 23, the domestic phosphate ore market operated steadily as a whole. The average market price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China was 710 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that of the previous working day. On the 23rd, the domestic phosphate ore market was steadily sorted out and operated, the downstream demand was launched one after another, and the market trading atmosphere was good. The quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guizhou is around 650-700 yuan / ton, the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 580-630 yuan / ton, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guangxi is around 630-680 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 570-630 yuan / ton.

On February 23, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 34500.00, an increase of 6.98% compared with February 1 (32250.00). Recently, the focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has shifted upward. The overall market trading situation is acceptable, and the spot of yellow phosphorus market is tight. There are many downstream inquiries, and enterprises are reluctant to sell. Yellow phosphorus manufacturers mainly issue early orders, and the transaction price of new orders is higher. The price of yellow phosphorus is expected to be strong in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts of business society, at present, the price of raw materials has risen, the cost support has been strengthened, and the downstream demand has been actively restored after the Winter Olympic Games, which is good to support the rise of phosphoric acid market. It is expected to rise steadily in the short term.