This week (4.6-8), the domestic butyl acetate market continued the pre holiday trend and continued to decline. Butyl acetate continued to fall in the absence of supply and demand support and cost decline. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate decreased by 1.45% this week. At the weekend, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate is 9800-10100 yuan / ton.

First, in terms of cost, the high levels of acetic acid and n-butanol fell. In particular, the decline of n-butanol is obvious, and the decline of cost is the direct reason for the decline of butyl acetate price.

From the perspective of acetic acid, the high price of domestic acetic acid fell this week. According to the monitoring of business society, acetic acid fell by 0.95% this week. Supply is relatively stable. At present, most factories are under normal operation, and Shanghai Huayi plant has not been started yet, so the supply pressure is not large. The market is generally affected by public health events, and manufacturers are facing pressure on shipment, which is also the main reason for the high decline of acetic acid price. In addition, the start-up of ethyl ester and butyl ester in the downstream decreased slightly, the demand for acetic acid decreased, and the market was mainly purchased on demand.

In terms of upstream n-butanol, n-butanol decreased significantly after the festival. According to the monitoring data of DINGCHUN in Shandong Province, the business decreased by 2.09% this week. The top users of n-butanol downstream have a heavy wait-and-see mood, and there are few high price transactions on the floor. The negotiation transactions are mostly concentrated in the low end, the overall demand of the downstream is weak, and they mainly digest the early inventory. In addition, due to the impact of public health events, the logistics and transportation in some areas are not fully opened, and there are still certain restrictions on the demand side.

In terms of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows the characteristics of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating rate of manufacturers is lower than that before the festival, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and most operators are bearish. Due to the epidemic, transportation is limited, and the rise of freight rates has further suppressed some demand. The substitution of other raw materials has occupied part of the demand for butyl, and the weak demand is the fundamental reason for the decline of butyl price.

Future forecast: in the short term, butyl acetate Market will remain weak. In the near future, we need to pay attention to whether the upstream acetic acid market can be reversed and the operation of downstream factories.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of April 6, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 5566 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on April 1, 2022. Compared with March 7, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6000 yuan / ton), the price was adjusted down by 437 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.22%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in March, the overall performance of domestic dimethyl carbonate was poor, and the effective support of the market was weak,. In April, during the Qingming Festival, the domestic market of dimethyl carbonate was stable and returned after the festival. The market news of dimethyl carbonate was calm, and the supply side. At present, the domestic supply of dimethyl carbonate is still sufficient, and there is still a certain pressure on the supply side. In terms of downstream demand, at present, the downstream operating rate is generally general, the recovery is in a slow recovery, and most of them maintain rigid demand procurement. In addition, at present, the logistics in some regions is limited, The overall demand is not high. The post holiday market of raw material propylene oxide is weak, and the support of dimethyl carbonate is limited. As of April 7, the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in China is around 5500-5800 yuan / ton. At present, the overall trading of dimethyl carbonate in the yard is flat.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, after the festival, the domestic propylene oxide market was weak and downward. According to the data of business agency, the reference price of propylene oxide was 11900 yuan / ton on April 6, down 1.11% compared with 12033.33 yuan / ton on April 1.

Future trend analysis

At present, I have heard that the domestic dimethyl carbonate factory has a parking plan in the near future, the on-site supply will be moderately reduced, the supply side support may be improved in the short term, and the downstream demand will take time to gradually expand. The dimethyl carbonate Data Engineer of business society believes that the domestic dimethyl carbonate situation may recover slightly in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Magnesium ingot price list

Market analysis

According to the data monitoring of business agency, 99.9% of the factory price including tax in mainstream areas was 40666.67 yuan / ton on the 14th, which was stable compared with that before the festival.

In terms of raw materials, the bidding price of ferrosilicon of Hegang group in April was 10050 yuan / ton, an increase of 850 yuan / ton compared with the previous month. After the festival, the ferrosilicon market continued to rise strongly, and the quotation of 75 ferrosilicon natural blocks in the main production area was 10300-10500 yuan / ton; The high price of coke remained stable, but market news said that the ex factory price of coke increased by 200 yuan / ton in some areas from 0:00 on April 7, and the first round of increase was started. The procurement cost of raw materials in magnesium plants is high, coupled with the impact of recent outbreaks in many places, poor shipping and rising transportation costs.

Although the cost of raw materials has increased recently, the demand performance continues to be light. The demand for magnesium in Europe has decreased due to the situation in Russia and Ukraine. The domestic market is mainly affected by the epidemic, and the downstream procurement is cautious.

Generally speaking, the market supply-demand relationship is in a tentative wait-and-see stage, and the demand side is still weak. However, under the condition of high cost and little capital pressure, the magnesium plant has a strong willingness to stabilize the price.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic PTA market showed an “m” shock rising trend in March. As of March 30, the average market price of domestic PTA in East China was 6134 yuan / ton, up 7.12% from the beginning of the month and 38.67% year-on-year.

In March, the plant restart and maintenance of domestic PTA plants were carried out in parallel. At present, the operating rate of the industry is around 76%. Hengli, Yisheng and other large factories announced the maintenance arrangement from April to may, especially the planned maintenance of many devices in April. PTA enterprises have production losses and may have unplanned maintenance. At the same time, PTA suppliers reduced the contract supply in April, PTA circulation spot is too small, and PTA supply will remain tight in April. In addition, logistics in some areas affects PTA transportation.

Crude oil prices fluctuated upward, providing PTA with cost side positive support. As of March 30, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $107.82/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.44/barrel, up about 13% from the beginning of the month. At present, the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that the US crude oil inventory has decreased continuously, indicating that the supply is still tight; In addition, the market is worried that Western sanctions against Russia continue to escalate, and the situation in Russia and Ukraine is still difficult to improve in the short term, and the risk of supply interruption remains in the future.

The downstream polyester inventory is high. In April, the production reduction plan of large polyester factories was the main one. It was heard that the maintenance capacity is higher than 5 million tons, and the demand for PTA has weakened. From April to June, 1.95 million tons of new polyester production capacity is planned to be put into operation, but the current demand and inventory situation are not optimistic, and the production situation is also variable. The fermentation of the epidemic situation in many places in China has led to a significant decline in terminal demand. Late March is the traditional peak season of the polyester industry, but under the influence of the current round of epidemic blockade, terminal orders and start-up have fallen to a certain extent, and the comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is less than 65%.

Business analysts believe that in April, under the tight supply and demand, it has played a sustained support for the oil market and is afraid to remain high. However, affected by the epidemic, the “peak season” of the terminal textile industry continues, the commencement and orders decline, the demand drag performance is weak, and the market presents a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the maintenance of PTA unit, the implementation effect of actual production reduction in large polyester plants and the trend of crude oil price.

Ethylene oxide is stable this month. Up to the latest price, the ex factory price in North China, South China, northeast and East China is 8200 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price in Central China is 8400 yuan / ton.

In terms of cost, affected by the fluctuation of crude oil, the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia has reached new highs, gradually rising from US $1230 / ton at the beginning of the month to US $1370 / ton today, with a total increase of US $140 / ton, or 11.38%. Domestic ethylene also rose to 9100 yuan / ton, up 3.41% from the beginning of the month. Based on the current external price, ethylene oxide has lost nearly 1000 yuan, the profit space has been lost, and it is reasonable for manufacturers to limit production and ensure price.

From the perspective of supply side, although many sets of units such as Dena, Sanjiang, Shanghai Petrochemical and satellite Petrochemical have been reduced or stopped, the improvement of supply and demand structure is limited due to the drag of demand side.

From the demand side, the construction progress of the project is restricted. Under the influence of the epidemic, the entry and exit procedures of the chemical park are complicated, the logistics efficiency is affected, and the terminal demand is weak. However, some people in the industry believe that although the recovery of the demand side is blocked at present, according to the policy, there is still room for the release of the annual demand of the infrastructure industry. After the epidemic is controlled, there may be a restorative rebound on the demand side, and the monomer market will improve at that time.

On the whole, the long short game continues, it is very difficult to catch up under the high cost and weak demand, and the light atmosphere of the market continues in the short term.

According to the monitoring data, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on March 31 was 128.31, unchanged from yesterday, down 10.05% from the highest point of 142.64 in the cycle (2021-11-01), and up 52.17% from the lowest point of 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

As shown in the figure, according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride was basically flat in the fifth week of March (28-31), and the domestic mainstream quotation of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride was 2373.75 yuan / ton. At present, the production of manufacturers is basically normal, and the spot inventory is sufficient. Public health events in some areas affect the transportation and circulation of goods.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: business society showed that the mainstream price of hydrochloric acid in the domestic hydrochloric acid market was about 345 yuan / ton in the current week (28-31). From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand is general. The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased slightly, the cost support has been strengthened, the market of downstream ammonium chloride has increased significantly, and the purchase intention of downstream hydrochloric acid is general. It is predicted that hydrochloric acid will mainly fluctuate and rise slightly in the near future.

Used in the production of liquefied natural gas. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the domestic LNG market increased slightly that week (28-31), with an average price of 7256 yuan / ton on the 28th and 7310 yuan / ton on the 31st, up 0.74%. At present, there is no pressure on the inventory of the liquid plant, and the market is pushed up slightly. It is predicted that the heating period will end in April and the domestic LNG market will tend to be stable.

Future forecast: at present, public health events are divergent at many points, with strict control, blocked goods circulation and a certain increase in transportation costs. The demand has been reduced to some extent due to the impact, and some manufacturers are under great pressure to ship. In order to promote sales, the polyaluminium chloride market will be stable for the time being, supplemented by small adjustment.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price has twists and turns this month. The quotation first increased from 13866.67 yuan / ton on March 1 to 15466.67 yuan / ton on March 10, an increase of 11.54%, then decreased to 10833.33 yuan / ton on March 21, a decrease of 29.96%, and then increased to 15966.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 47.38%. Overall, the isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly this month, up 15.14% for the whole month.

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers increased slightly this month, the manufacturer’s inventory is general, and the downstream demand is weakened. The quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde at the end of the month was 15900 yuan / ton, an increase of 2400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 15900 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; Hualu Hengsheng isobutyraldehyde offered 16100 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1800 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

The upstream support is general, and the downstream demand is weakened

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream propylene market rose first and then fell this month. The quotation fell from 8433.83 yuan / ton on March 1 to 8405.67 yuan / ton on March 30, a decrease of 0.33%, a year-on-year increase of 6.64% compared with the same period last year, and the cost support is general. The market price of downstream neopentyl glycol decreased slightly, and the quotation fell from 19000.00 yuan / ton on March 1 to 17733.33 yuan / ton on March 30, a decrease of 6.67%. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde weakened.

The market outlook fell slightly

The domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early ten days of April. The recent high price of propylene in the upstream fell, the cost support was insufficient, the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream fell slightly, the enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde procurement in the downstream weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 29, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 5600 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 600 yuan / ton, or 9.68%, compared with the price on March 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6200 yuan / ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in early March, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market showed a trend of first falling and then rising. At the beginning of the month, the downstream demand of dimethyl carbonate was general, and some domestic factories had certain inventory pressure. On the 4th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market operated slightly downward. The ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was around 5800-6300 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand was weak. The game between supply and demand of dimethyl carbonate appeared. On the 7th, the ester price of some domestic factories was lowered again, and the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was around 5600-6300 yuan / ton, Two days after the low-level consolidation and operation of dimethyl carbonate, the units in Zhejiang were put into operation with reduced load, the inventory in the dimethyl carbonate yard was moderately reduced, and the supply pressure was relieved. In addition, the downstream demand support in the coating and adhesive industry was improved. On the 10th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market ushered in an upward operation, and the outgoing price of dimethyl carbonate increased by about 100-300 yuan / ton, with reference to about 6000-6350 yuan / ton. The transaction activity of dimethyl carbonate was improved, and the inquiry atmosphere in the venue was good. On the 14th and 15th, the market of dimethyl carbonate moved upward again. The ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was 6100-6500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 6333 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.26% in early March.

In late March, the trend of upstream raw materials was weak, and the cost support of dimethyl carbonate became weaker. In addition, the downstream operating rate was low, the logistics and transportation were limited, the downstream demand was weak, and the support given by the demand side was also loose. From the 16th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market continued to run downward, and the factory quotation was under pressure. As of the 21st, the ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 5600-6000 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the trading atmosphere of dimethyl carbonate on the floor was still cold and the inventory pressure was high. The market of dimethyl carbonate continued to adjust downward in a narrow range. As of the 29th, the average ex factory price of domestic dimethyl carbonate was around 5600 yuan / ton, down 11.58% in late March. At present, the dimethyl carbonate market is mainly organized and operated, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is acceptable.

For the upstream propylene oxide surface, recently, the domestic propylene oxide (3.21-3.28) market has operated smoothly after rising. Last week, the price of raw propylene stopped falling and rose, the cost support was gradually strengthened, the negative state of many devices was reduced, the inventory of manufacturers was controllable, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was not high, the price rose, the demand side was cold, the increase was restrained, and the price operated smoothly. On the 28th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 11800-12000 yuan / ton, and the market trading atmosphere was general.

Future trend analysis

At present, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market has dropped to a low level, and the overall trading atmosphere has improved. The dimethyl carbonate data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will mainly be sorted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In March 2022, the domestic 1# antimony ingot market continued to rise. The average price of the domestic market was 78750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 83750 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 6.35%.

On March 28, the antimony commodity index was 116.59, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 148.17% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

Investors can use the K-bar chart to reflect the price change of commodities every week, or the K-bar chart to reflect the price change of commodities every month. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the antimony ingot Market has maintained a stable upward trend in the near future.

As a whole, the price of antimony ingots this month is the main player. It continues to rise at the beginning of the month and remains stable after rising at the end of the month. In the first ten days of this month, the market is affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the market mentality tends to be tense. Driven by this mentality, the seller’s reluctance to sell is becoming stronger and stronger, and the market trading is more active, which further boosts the seller’s price mentality. In addition, at that time, some downstream demand was released, and some just needed to enter the site for purchase on demand. The overall transaction of the market is OK, but it is still based on demand. By the end of the month, the rising power of antimony ingots weakened, and the overall market was temporarily stable after rising. However, the market trading is still active. The mentality of some cargo holders has changed, focusing on active shipment. The mentality of replenishment in the downstream is weak, and there is no obvious demand release. With the rising price, the market speculation funds have weakened, and the downstream still maintains the rigid demand for procurement.

In terms of price, as of the 28th, the domestic market 2# antimony ingot was 80500 yuan / ton, 1# antimony ingot was 83000 yuan / ton, and 0# antimony ingot was 79000 yuan / ton.

The external price continued to rise this month, and the market supply is still tight. It is expected that the wait-and-see mood in the future market is still strong, and the price of antimony ingot is expected to be stable, medium and strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data list of business society, the average price of domestic hips on March 25 was 12533.33 yuan / ton, up 0.53% from 12466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 5.32% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Hips rose slightly with the cost this week, with an increase of 0.53% during the week. The market of raw material styrene was explored, the cost side was strongly supported, the market was in a rising atmosphere, and the offer of cargo holders was tentatively increased, but the downstream inquiry was not positive after the rise, and the market trading was general. By the end of the weekend, the ex factory price of hips was mostly about 11800-14300 yuan / ton, and the price of GPPS 525 was mostly 10100-11000 yuan / ton. The PS market rose slightly during the week.

Crude oil futures fell on the international market on March 24. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $112.34/barrel, down US $2.59 or 2.25%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $115.30/barrel, down US $2.45 or 2.08%. The main reason is that the EU failed to reach an agreement on the sanctions of Russian oil embargo, and there are reports that the crude oil export of OPC Caspian oil pipeline terminal may partially resume, and the supply interruption is expected to ease the pressure.

In terms of raw materials, on March 24, the reference price of styrene was 9420.00, an increase of 5.37% compared with March 1 (8940.00). The market focus of raw material pure benzene is explored, and the cost of styrene is well supported. At present, the spot supply is relatively abundant, the downstream is dominated by digestion contracts, and the spot trading is acceptable. The styrene market is expected to rise in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The business agency believes that the current rise in raw material prices and the cost side are good for the hips market, but considering the shipment situation, the hips market remains cautious and has little short-term fluctuation.