Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PC market fell weakly this week, and the spot prices of various brands were mostly reduced. As of April 24, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business society was about 21700 yuan / ton, up or down – 4.26% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the domestic bisphenol a market was stable and small this week, and the offer of the factory was stable. The raw material phenol is in weak operation, and the downstream inventory consumption is slow, but the operating rate has increased, and the demand is expected to improve. The bisphenol A carriers are tight in supply and reluctant to sell obviously. If there is pre holiday stock in the short term, the bisphenol a market will operate strongly.

The upstream bisphenol a market is sorted out, which can support the cost side of PC. In terms of industry load, there was a production line that was overhauled and resumed work, the on-site supply increased, and the support of the supply side for spot prices weakened. The tension between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe is becoming more and more anxious, which affects the high price of crude oil in the upstream of the far end, and has a general cost transmission effect on PC. The current health events still have the impression that in some parts of East China, the market transportation and demand have shrunk due to its impact, the mentality of operators has weakened, the offer of merchants has been reduced, and the shipment tends to follow the market.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: the domestic PC market fell weakly this week, the upstream bisphenol a market was sorted and operated, and the cost side had a fair supporting effect on PC. In terms of supply, there is abundant supply, and in terms of demand, the spot trading is relatively light. The on-site trading continues to be restricted by health events, and the market momentum decreases. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of the morning of April 17, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 18900.00 yuan / ton, down 0.18% compared with the price on Monday (April 11) and 1.90% compared with the price on March 17.

The epichlorohydrin market was weak this week (4.11-4.17). Recently, the raw material propylene market has been consolidated and operated, the raw material glycerol price has been under pressure, the cost support is limited, the downstream demand performance is poor, the just needed replenishment is mainly, the shipment of goods holders is not smooth, the market mentality is under pressure, and the epichlorohydrin market has declined.

Upstream propylene, propylene market consolidation operation (4.11-4.15). According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price fluctuated this week, and the price fell slightly. The market was 8460 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the average price at the weekend was 8441 yuan / ton, down 0.23%.

For downstream epoxy resin, on April 15, the reference price of epoxy resin was 25450.00, a decrease of 1.64% compared with April 1 (25875.00).

The epichlorohydrin analyst of business society believes that at present, the impact of cost is limited, the supply side is expected to improve, the demand side is weak, and the supply and demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

The price of orthobenzene fell sharply this week

According to the price trend chart of orthobenzene in business society, the price of orthobenzene fell sharply this week. As of April 18, the price of orthobenzene was 8200 yuan / ton, down 4.65% from 8600 yuan / ton on April 10 at the beginning of the week. This week, the market of orthobenzene industrial chain continued to decline, and the market of orthobenzene fell.

Mixed xylene prices fell sharply this week

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in business society, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply this week. As of April 18, the price of mixed xylene was 7140 yuan / ton, down 4.55% from 7480 yuan / ton on April 10 at the beginning of the week. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased, the high price of crude oil fell, and mixed xylene fell. This week, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply, the cost of o-xylene decreased, and the downward pressure of o-xylene increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell

As can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart of business society, the phthalic anhydride price fluctuated and fell this week. As of April 18, the phthalic anhydride price was 8287.50 yuan / ton, down 2.50% from 8500 yuan / ton on April 10 at the beginning of the week. The price of phthalic anhydride fell this week, the demand for o-xylene weakened, and the downward pressure on o-xylene increased.

Outlook

Analysts of o-xylene data of business society believe that the high price of crude oil has fallen, the price of mixed xylene has fallen sharply, and the cost of o-xylene has decreased; The price demand for phthalic anhydride in the downstream is weak, and the downward pressure on orthobenzene is increasing. On the whole, the cost of ortho benzene decreased and the demand was weak. It is expected that the price of ortho benzene will decline weakly in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market of imported potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level this week, and the quotation is 5133.33 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 3500 yuan / ton. On April 17, the commodity index of potassium chloride (import) was 135.09, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 39.69% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers this week is temporarily stable: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is about 3500 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The price of 62% white potassium in the port is about 5000 yuan / ton. The price of 60% Dahong granules in the port has been raised by about 5000-5100 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a high level this week, with a quotation of 9066.67 yuan / ton, up 35.58% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a high level this week, and the quotation was 7050.00 yuan / ton, up 61.14% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride is general.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle and late April, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is relatively tight. As spring ploughing approaches the end, agricultural demand weakens and traders generally take goods. In terms of industry, the downstream market of potassium chloride is consolidated at a high level, the downstream demand is good, and the just need to purchase is mainly. The international price of potash fertilizer is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash fertilizer is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly in the short term.

The monitoring shows that the natural rubber commodity index on April 17 was 37.86, the same as yesterday, down 62.14% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 38.78% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in the third week of April 2022

The monitoring showed that in the third week of April, the domestic natural rubber (standard 1) in China’s East China market decreased slightly. The mainstream market reported about 12880 yuan / ton on the 11th and 12766 yuan / ton on the 17th, with a weekly decrease of 0.89%; Among them, the highest price of the week was 12880 yuan / ton on the 11th, and the lowest price was 12766 yuan / ton on the weekend. The maximum amplitude of the week was 0.89%.

Figure 3: trend chart of mainstream international crude oil prices in the third week of March 2022

Macro analysis: on the macro level, the international oil price rose sharply overnight on the 15th, and the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $106.95/barrel, up US $2.70 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $111.70/barrel, up US $2.92 or 2.7%. As of Thursday of that week, oil prices had risen for three consecutive times, with a weekly rise of nearly 9%. Friday’s inner market was boosted. The main contract of SC crude oil rose 3.87% to close at 690.2 yuan / barrel; The main reason is that the EU may draft a bill banning the import of Russian oil, and the expectation of oil product shortage caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has surfaced again, with strong support for oil prices. While it is predicted that oil prices will still have upward momentum in the future, China’s demand may continue to slow down and limit the rise of oil prices.

Figure 4: Weekly K histogram of natural rubber market since April 2022

Industry analysis: supply side: it is reported that the thunderstorm warning in Thailand’s production area will have an impact on the north and northeast. On the whole, the shipment of new rubber in Southeast Asia is good and the price is strong; Among the domestic production areas, the rubber cutting work in Yunnan has increased normally, and the cutting in Hainan production area is expected to be delayed. At present, the global output is still relatively low. Demand side: Recently, the whole country has been greatly affected by public health events, and the transportation of raw materials and finished products has been greatly affected by multi-point divergence. As an important circulation place and an international circulation place of bulk raw materials, Shanghai can hardly ship raw materials from multi District raw materials warehouses at present; The transportation in Shandong and other main production areas is still very affected. It is difficult for raw materials to come in and finished products to go out, the cost is high, the downstream demand is reduced, and the tire enterprises reduce the operating load; Secondly, the demand for tire exports has declined. The current situation in Shanghai has affected the import and export trade of finished products, which is difficult to recover in the short term. Domestic shipments are blocked, and the inventory pressure of finished tire products continues to increase. In terms of inventory: the inventory in Qingdao is in a state where the outbound volume is greater than the inbound volume. The arrival volume of natural rubber decreases, the inventory continues to decline slightly, the rhythm of accumulating inventory slows down, and the inventory elimination of rubber inventory has begun, but the process is slow. Import and export: according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2022, down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.

Industry hot spots: 1. According to the passenger car Federation, the retail sales of passenger car market reached 1.579 million in March 2022, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.5% and a month on month increase of 25.6%. The retail trend in March was quite differentiated. From January to March, a total of 4.915 million vehicles were retailed, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 230000 vehicles. The overall trend was lower than expected. The analysis shows that the production and sales of passenger cars in the core areas will be greatly affected in April. Due to the long automobile industry chain and high requirements for coordination, and the shutdown radiation range of core production and logistics base is wider, the production and marketing pressure of automobile market in April may be great.

2. On April 11, the China Automobile Industry Association released monthly data. The data showed that in March this year, the automobile production and sales data were 2.241 million and 2.234 million respectively, down 9.1% and 11.7% year-on-year; Growth of 23.4% and 28.4% month on month. From January to March, the production and sales of automobiles totaled 6.484 million and 6.599 million, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0% and 0.2%. It is noteworthy that the domestic automobile production and sales data of China Automobile Industry Association this month excludes the automobile export part.

3. Data show that from January to March, Vietnam exported 412000 tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, basically the same as last year; A total of 270000 tons were exported to China, up 0.4% from 269000 tons last year.

4. The data show that in the first three months of 2022, the rubber export volume of C ô te d’Ivoire totaled 322544 tons, an increase of 4.2% compared with 309441 tons in the same period of 2021.

5. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on April 13, China imported 668000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in March 2022, down 6% from 711000 tons in the same period in 2021. From January to March 2022, China imported 1.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 3.9% over 1.791 million tons in the same period in 2021.

6. On April 13, the European tire and Rubber Manufacturers Association (etrma) released market data that showed that the market sales of replacement tires in Europe increased by 8.8% year-on-year to 69.24 million in the first quarter of 2022. According to the analysis, assuming the tight supply of raw materials and energy caused by the current situation, it may affect the sales in the next few months.

7. According to the Malaysian Bureau of statistics on April 15, the export volume of natural rubber in February 2022 decreased by 12.7% year-on-year to 47682 tons, down 6.8% month on month. Among them, 50.8% are exported to China, and the others are 5.1% in the United States, 3.5% in Germany, 3.4% in Turkey and 2.1% in Brazil.

8. On April 18, the Thai meteorological agency issued the No. 9 Thailand summer storm warning. High pressure or cold air mass has spread to the northeast of Thailand, the eastern region of the northern region and the South China Sea. Due to the unusually hot weather, there will be summer storms in this area, thunderstorms, gales and hail in some areas, as well as heavy rain and lightning.

Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2022

Future forecast: on the macro level, under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the reduction of China’s demand, the international crude oil will be strong, but the range will be limited. The weather in Thailand is abnormal, and the current global production is still relatively low; Public health incidents spread at many points, China’s cargo transportation and downstream demand were affected, the operating rate of tire enterprises slowed down, the stock of spot finished products continued to accumulate, and the rising power of the market continued to be suppressed. Although the synthetic rubber market has declined slightly in recent weeks, the cost pressure of alternative rubber remains high, and the future market shock of natural rubber is weak.

DOTP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price fluctuated and fell this week, and the overall DOTP market fell. As of April 15, the price of DOTP was 11925 yuan / ton, down 3.34% from 12337.50 yuan / ton on April 8 last weekend. The price of DOTP fell this week, and the market of DOTP fell.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic isooctanol market fell violently this week, and the price of isooctanol fell by 5.19%. In the recent transportation control, the transportation of isooctanol enterprises is limited, the downstream operation is limited, the terminal demand is poor, and the overall isooctanol market is weak. The price of isooctanol fell, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost of DOTP decreased, the upward momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

PTA prices rose slightly

According to the price monitoring of business society, PTA prices rose slightly this week, and the overall PTA market remained stable at a high level. As of April 15, PTA prices were 6177.27 yuan / ton, up 0.46% from 6149.09 yuan / ton on April 8 last weekend. The high crude oil price rebounded and PTA price fluctuated and adjusted. This week, PTA prices fluctuated at a high level and stabilized, DOTP cost support weakened, and the positive momentum of DOTP was weak.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, the high crude oil price fluctuated and adjusted, PTA price fluctuated and stabilized, the impact of transportation, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the cost decreased, the rising power of DOTP weakened and the downward pressure increased. Generally speaking, the price of raw materials decreased, the demand for DOTP was temporarily stable, and the downward pressure on DOTP increased. It is expected that the price of DOTP will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Price trend of metallic magnesium

Market analysis this week

After the festival, the metal magnesium market returned to the market to maintain a temporary and stable consolidation. There has been no significant change in the recent market, and the operation of both the supplier and the demander is cautious. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of the 8th, the transaction price of magnesium ingots in the market was concentrated at 39500-41000 yuan / ton, and the average price in the domestic market was 40666.67 yuan / ton, which was basically stable compared with the Qingming Festival.

Raw materials

The quotation of 75 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi is around 9800-9900 yuan / ton, and the average market price is 9850 yuan / ton. After the festival, the futures market continues to rise, the futures market is linked, the spot price is rising, the export also performs well, and the price of blue carbon is also strong. Many favorable factors are overweight. The ferrosilicon spot market may operate at a high level in the short term.

Supply and demand

Affected by the epidemic prevention measures, domestic magnesium plants have difficulties in delivering goods and transportation. At present, the inventory of magnesium plants has rebounded compared with the previous period, and downstream enterprises have been in a wait-and-see state. The epidemic has also caused demand contraction, and domestic and foreign orders are weak, resulting in slow destocking of magnesium plants. However, there is no financial pressure on magnesium plants, and the overall quotation is stable.

Future forecast

On the whole, the capital pressure of the factory itself is not large, coupled with the high cost of ferrosilicon, the price stabilization mentality of the factory remains unchanged, but the downstream transaction of the market is less than expected, the magnesium ingot Market lacks the support of good news, and the supply and demand side has not changed substantially. The two sides are still in the exploratory wait-and-see stage, and the magnesium ingot price is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of imported potassium chloride increased slightly this week, and the quotation increased from 5066.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5133.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 1.32%. The ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. This week, the factory price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is about 3500 yuan / ton. On April 10, the commodity index of potassium chloride (import) was 135.09, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 39.69% from the lowest point of 96.71 on September 16, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream domestic potassium chloride manufacturers increased slightly this week: the ex factory price of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was about 3500 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Youdeshi’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5100 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week. Zibo Dehe offered 5300 yuan / ton of potassium chloride this weekend, up 300 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. Anhui Badou’s potassium chloride distribution quotation this weekend is 5000 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend. The self raised price of 62% white potassium at the port is about 5000 yuan / ton. The price of 60% Dahong granules in the port has increased by about 5000-5200 yuan / ton. Border trade 62% Russian White potassium is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the ex factory price of potassium carbonate was adjusted at a high level this week, with a quotation of 9066.67 yuan / ton, up 35.58% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The ex factory price of potassium nitrate was adjusted at a high level this week, and the quotation was 7050.00 yuan / ton, up 65.40% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, the downstream market of potassium chloride has been consolidated at a high level, and the downstream demand for potassium chloride is general.

3、 Future forecast

In mid April, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has been adjusted at a high level, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is relatively tight. With the advent of spring ploughing, agricultural demand has increased, and traders are actively taking goods. The demand for potassium chloride is mainly high in the downstream, while the demand for potassium chloride is good in the downstream. The international price of potash fertilizer is adjusted at a high level, and the domestic potash fertilizer is still likely to rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the import price of domestic potassium chloride may rise slightly in the short term.

The spot tin market price (4.1-4.8) fell this week. The average price in the domestic market was 349130 yuan / ton last weekend and 341430 yuan / ton this weekend, down 2.21% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of business society, there are two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 14th week of 2022 (4.4-4.8). The top two commodities are zinc (0.33%) and copper (0.17%). A total of 16 commodities fell month on month, and the top three products were electrolytic manganese (- 3.44%), aluminum (- 3.43%) and neodymium (- 3.31%). The average rise and fall this week was – 1.04%.

In the futures market, boosted by the rise of crude oil at the beginning of the week, the metal market generally rose, and Lunxi rose. Later, with the rise of the US dollar, the metal market was generally under pressure, and the opening of Lunxi was under pressure. Shanghai tin basically followed the trend of Lunxi, rising first and then falling, and the high level fell on Thursday.

In terms of supply, at present, the smelter has basically entered a stable production stage, and the operating rate is gradually stable. According to market news, major domestic manufacturers will end maintenance recently, which can alleviate the shortage of domestic tin supply to a certain extent. In terms of supply, the supply of Myanmar mine is relatively stable, but the overall domestic demand is still uncertain. At present, the demand in major regions is relatively stable, and enterprises mainly purchase on demand. Therefore, the market is mainly wait-and-see. Internationally, LME tin inventory rebounded significantly this week, which is bad for the market. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the future.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of sulfur in East China this week was stable and upward. On April 8, the quotation of sulfur was 3426.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.49% during the week and 23.11% month on month compared with the price of 3343.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week.

This week, the sulfur market continued to operate strongly, the output of domestic refineries was limited, the inventory was low, and the support for the sulfur price market was obvious. The downstream demand was stable, the trend of sulfuric acid continued to rise, the market demand continued to be good, the enterprise shipped smoothly, the supply was short of demand, the operator had a positive attitude, strong intention to support the price, and the sulfur price was stable and upward. As of August 8, the price of sulfur fixation in refineries in Shandong is between 3250-3530 yuan / ton, and the price range of liquid sulfur is 3360-3500 yuan / ton.

The sulfuric acid market rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising from 1141.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 1158.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 1.46%. The inventory of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers is general, the downstream purchase is positive, the demand is stable, the operator’s mentality is good, and the quotation is increased.

The downstream phosphate fertilizer market is stable and positive. On Monday, the ammonium market is waiting and sorting, the market trading is general, the new orders are limited, the downstream is mainly purchased on demand, the raw material support is good, and the market trend runs at a high level. The market of diammonium ran smoothly within the week. At present, the supply of goods in the market is tight, there are sufficient orders to be issued, and the high-level consolidation of diammonium runs.

According to the sulfur analysts of the business society, the inventory of domestic sulfur refineries is low, the high support of the external market and the favorable downstream demand, the overall market supply is in short supply, and the mentality of the operators is optimistic. It is expected that the sulfur market will continue to be strong in the future, so we should pay attention to the market follow-up.