1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic refrigerant R22 stopped falling and rebounded in July. On July 29, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17000.00 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price of 17000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and increased by 5.15% compared with the same period last year

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic refrigerant R134a continued to rise in July. As of July 29, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 22500.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.74% over the price of 21333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 8.87% over the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the fundamentals of refrigerant R22 fluctuated little, the enterprise quotation stopped falling and rose slightly, and the overall low level moved forward slightly. The price of raw material chloroform continued to decline in the month, hydrofluoric acid remained weak and stable as a whole, the cost of raw materials continued to decline, refrigerant enterprises had difficulties in shipping, and the cost continued to suppress the domestic R22 price. Summer was the peak season for refrigerant demand, and the domestic R22 price stopped falling and stabilized as a whole under the support of demand.

In July, the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid was weak and stabilized as a whole, the quotation of trichloroethylene rose slightly, and the raw material cost rose slightly. In addition, summer was the peak season of refrigerant traditional demand, and the price of refrigerant R134a continued to rise in July, supported by downstream demand.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

According to the refrigerant analysts of business agency, the cost of raw materials has rebounded slightly, and the peak demand season is coming. Supported by the cost and demand, it is expected that the price of domestic refrigerant R134a will continue to rise in August. The upstream raw material cost of R22 decreased slightly, which will suppress the market price of R22 in August. It is expected that the overall rebound space of R22 price in August is limited.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the copper price first fell and then rebounded in July. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 62968.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the copper price fell to 60045 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 4.64% and a year-on-year decline of 17.02%.

According to the current chart of the business community, in July, the spot price of copper was basically higher than the futures price, and the main contract was the expected price in two months. The main basis became larger, which was bad for buying hedging.

According to LME inventory, LME copper inventory in July was slightly higher than that in June, and was relatively high in 1-5 months.

Macro aspect: according to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, the year-on-year increase of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) from March to May was more than 8% for three consecutive months. In June, CPI increased by 9.1% year-on-year, hitting a new high in nearly 41 years. On July 21, the European Central Bank announced that it would raise the three key interest rates by 50 basis points, which was higher than the 25 basis points previously expected by the market and exceeded the European Central Bank’s forward-looking guidance in June. On the 27th, the Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point increase in interest rates, raising the target range of the federal funds rate to between 2.25% and 2.5%. This is the fourth interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year and the second consecutive 75 basis points hike.

Supply: in the week of July 1, cspt held an online meeting to finalize the TC guidance price of copper concentrate in the third quarter of 2022 at $80 / dry ton, which was the same as that in the second quarter. In July, the overall supply and demand continued to improve month on month, but it was still slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The intensity of consumption recovery after the epidemic eased was weak. Under the influence of the resumption of production of Shandong refineries, the completion of centralized maintenance of domestic refineries and the recovery of production, the supply of refined copper is expected to gradually increase, and the subsequent or continued accumulation of reserves. However, the domestic inventory showed a downward trend. Although the trade sector showed poor buying interest, the inventory fell and the premium rose, which verified that the current demand is still in the repair list.

Demand: in June, China’s power grid investment was 64.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 26% year-on-year and 74% month on month. In June, the output of air conditioners in China was 22.2143 million units, an increase of 4.4% year-on-year; The export volume of air conditioners was 3.63 million units, lower than the same period in previous years, and the external demand performance was poor. In June, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.502 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 590000 and 596000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times. In July, the overall demand was poor, and the operating rate and processing fee of copper pipes and rods fell. Except for the automobile direction, other fields entered the seasonal consumption off-season, and downstream purchases remained cautious in the price decline.

Based on the above situation, in July, the copper supply was loose and the consumption was weak. The copper price fell to a two-year low and rebounded slightly after hitting the bottom.

In the second half of the year, the maintenance of domestic smelting enterprises will be reduced. In the new project, the feeding time of the 400000 ton double flash process of Daye Nonferrous Metals is from August to September, and it is expected that the first batch of crude copper will be released in the fourth quarter. The expansion plan of Xinjiang Wuxin has been put into operation, and the output is expected to increase from 10000 tons to 15000 tons after July. Tongling and Fuye also have plans to expand production in the third and fourth quarters. With the reduction of interference and the increase of new investment and construction, the supply will be relaxed again in the second half of the year.

Traditional downstream demand, including air conditioners, wires and cables, will be dragged down by the real estate market. Although the real estate policy has marginal improvement, it is difficult to reverse the weak trend in the second half of the year; Household appliances have also weakened; More hopes are placed on Power Investment under infrastructure construction. It is expected that in August, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will continue, and the copper price may remain low and volatile.

This week, the spot tin market price (7.15-7.22) fluctuated for many times and rose as a whole. The average price in the domestic market was 189810 yuan / ton last weekend and 193710 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 2.05%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that tin prices continued to weaken after April.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 29th week of 2022 (7.18-7.22), there were six kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, of which one kind increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were nickel (9.89%), copper (2.24%) and lead (1.40%). A total of 13 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 1 commodity falling by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were magnesium (-5.15%), cobalt (-4.49%) and praseodymium neodymium alloy (-3.43%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.45%.

Futures market situation this week

Variety, closing price, compared with the same period last week, inventory (tons)

Shanghai tin, 191850 yuan / ton, +10350 yuan / ton, 3758

London Tin, 25000 US dollars / ton, +225 US dollars / ton, 3490

In terms of the futures market, Lunxi’s narrow range fluctuations this week were mainly within 1%. Shanghai tin has maintained a wide range of volatility this week, with a fluctuation range of less than 6%. On the macro level, the high level of the US dollar fell, and the metal market was generally boosted. Therefore, the futures trend this week was dominated on the whole, especially Shanghai tin.

In terms of supply, smelters stopped production for maintenance in July, and the overall output is expected to decline in July. However, the downstream demand has not changed much recently, and the overall start-up of tin solder enterprises is still low, with fewer orders. In terms of the market, the delivery of the contract in the spot market this week has been completed, the overall performance of the market supply is relatively sufficient, the market transaction is general, and most of the goods are shipped at a discount. The recent trend of tin price is still disturbed by macro factors, and it is expected that tin price will remain wide and volatile under the pattern of weak supply and demand.

This week (July 15 to July 22), the market price of 1# electrolytic manganese fell. The spot market price in East China was 16650 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 16550 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 100 yuan / ton, down 0.6% a week.

Manganese ore: the manganese ore market performance continued to be weak this week. Manufacturers reduced purchases on demand, and the superimposed silicon manganese production reduction achieved initial results. The futures market resonated downward, the demand for manganese ore was poor, and the overall pressure was obvious. The mainstream ore showed a decline of 1 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of this week, the market quotation of electrolytic manganese was slightly chaotic as a whole, and the mainstream market price was still concentrated around 15000 yuan / ton. In terms of steel bidding, the situation of the new round of steel bidding is not ideal. Baosteel and other steel companies fell by 200 yuan / ton compared with the previous round of steel bidding, and the bidding of other steel plants fell significantly or there were unsuccessful bids. On July 22, the manganese Professional Committee of China ferroalloy industry association issued an initiative calling on more than 40 manganese member units to limit production by 60%. But the market had little effect. The downstream demand side performed poorly, and the spot price center continued to move down slightly. The downstream stainless steel enterprises have recently reduced production to a certain extent, and the demand for manganese has declined to a certain extent, so the price reduction is obviously difficult to support the price of electrolytic manganese. On the whole, the supply and demand side of the market has not changed much, and the game mentality of both parties is strong. It is expected that the market price will be stable and weak in the short term.

Manganese and silicon: according to the price monitoring of business agency, the mainstream quotation of silicon and manganese in Ningxia region (specification: femn68si18) on July 15 was around 7300 yuan / ton.

Steel plant bidding: on July 15, 2022, Angang electrolytic manganese sheet bidding: the quantity is 30 tons, and the bidding deadline is 15:00 on July 22, 2022.

On July 18, Baosteel launched a new round of bidding for electrolytic manganese. This round of bidding has 1500 tons of electrolytic manganese chips at its headquarters and 1800 tons of electrolytic manganese chips in Zhanjiang. The deadline for registration is 12:00 on July 19, and the required delivery time is before August 20.

On July 19, the bidding acceptance price of Baosteel electrolytic manganese sheet: the bidding acceptance price of the headquarters is 15500 yuan / ton, and the quantity is 1500 tons; The acceptance price of Zhanjiang bidding is 15370 yuan / ton, with a quantity of 1800 tons, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than the previous round of price.

This week, the domestic methanol market has a slight upward trend, but the momentum is insufficient and the upward trend is weak. The main reasons are the following two aspects: one is that the cost has fallen significantly, and the chemical coal at the pit mouth has weakened; On the other hand, demand continues to be weak and market confidence is insufficient.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from July 18 to 25, the average price of domestic methanol market rose from 2393 yuan / ton to 2432 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.62% during the cycle, and the price fell by 3.47% month on month and 5.90% year-on-year.

As of the closing on July 25, methanol in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange continued to fluctuate. Ma2209 contract opened at 2445 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2505 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2425 yuan / ton. It closed at 2429 yuan / ton, down 27 yuan / ton from the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2209 contract holdings were 1017500 hands, down 117300 hands from the previous trading day.

As of July 25th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region, price

Qinghai region. No quotation at present

Shanxi Province, 2340-2390 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton, factory delivery

Fujian. The mainstream negotiation is 2430-2470 yuan / ton

In the two lakes region, the mainstream enterprises negotiate and refer to about 2400-2430 yuan / ton

In Anhui Province, the negotiation of mainstream enterprises is about 2370-2500 yuan / ton

In Henan Province, the shipment price of some enterprises is 2530 yuan / ton

The price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, was stable, the price of coal fell narrowly, and the cost support of methanol weakened; The price of East China glacial acetic acid, the downstream product, fell the most; Among related products, the price of urea in Shandong increased the most.

In the external market, as of the closing on July 22, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $358.00-359.00/t, down $2 / T. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 111.50-112.00 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 350.50-351.00 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, rise and fall

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 358.00-359.00 USD / ton, -2 USD / ton

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 111.50-112.00 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 350.50-351.00 euros / ton, 0 euros / ton

The production cost of methanol has weakened, the supply of methanol is relatively stable, and the downstream demand has not changed significantly, so it is necessary to purchase more rigid materials. Methanol analysts of the business club expect that the domestic methanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is weak. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong is about 1164 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average market price in Shandong is 1100 yuan / ton. The price is reduced by 5.5%, and the price is 76.71% higher than the same period last year. On July 21, the caustic soda commodity index was 158.27, down 1.73 points from yesterday, down 40.38% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 143.08% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 09, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price was weak this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1030-1130 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Hebei is about 1100-1250 yuan / ton. At present, the overall market atmosphere is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly take a wait-and-see attitude. Enterprises generally ship goods, with heavy on-site wait-and-see mood, and the downstream receiving capacity is limited. The overall trading is weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 28th week of 2022 (7.11-7.15), there were 0 kinds of commodities rising, 5 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising or falling. The main commodities that fell were hydrochloric acid (-12.82%), PVC (-5.13%) and caustic soda (-2.50%). The average rise and fall this week was -4.31%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of caustic soda is weak, the wait-and-see attitude of downstream alumina is obvious, most of which are purchased on demand, and the overall demand is limited. The market trading atmosphere continues in the early stage. It is comprehensively expected that the subsequent weak market operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

As of July 21, the average quotation price of formic acid enterprises was 3900.00 yuan / ton, unchanged from Monday’s price, down 15.22% from June 21, and 59.66% year-on-year in a three-month cycle, according to the bulk list data of business society.

The domestic market price of 85% industrial formic acid was stable this week. Recently, the market of upstream sulfuric acid, caustic soda and liquid ammonia has been weak, the price of main raw material methanol has risen, the cost side support is acceptable, the enterprise mainly ships normally, the downstream demand continues to be just in need of procurement, the market trend is balanced, the quotation of formic acid enterprises is on the market, and the negotiation focus of industrial grade 85% formic acid market is mainly stable.

In terms of cost: upstream caustic soda, the price of caustic soda was weak on July 20, and the downstream demand was general. It is comprehensively estimated that the market in the later stage or weak market is dominant; Upstream liquid ammonia, on the 21st, the liquid ammonia Market in Shandong was still weak. Today, the downward trend of the market stopped slightly and slowed down, and the market quotation was little changed from yesterday; Upstream sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price temporarily stabilized on July 20; Upstream methanol, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol in East China port market was 2430 yuan / ton on July 20, up 3.46% from the previous trading day.

According to the formic acid analysts of business society, at present, there is a certain support on the cost side, and the supply and demand side is generally performing. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market may be dominated by stability and wait-and-see operation.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, the copper price fell slightly this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation was 55183.33 yuan / ton, down 5.77% from 58561.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 19.89% year-on-year.

Copper weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the business club, in the past three months, copper prices have risen by 2 and fallen by 10. Recently, copper prices have fallen endlessly.

Macro: the recent good employment and high inflation data make the market expect that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points this month, and the market is still worried about the occurrence of future economic recession.

Basically, there are more disturbances at the supply side and the mine side, and the processing fee is reduced, but the increment of domestic smelters is obvious. The demand is poor, and the operating rate and processing fee of copper pipes and rods have fallen. Except for the automobile direction, other fields have entered the seasonal consumption off-season, and downstream purchases have remained cautious in the price decline. The real estate industry, which has just improved, is making waves again. Last week, the weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 71.44%, down 0.91 percentage points, and the power grid has made up the inventory.

To sum up, copper prices are still worried about the impact of economic recession in Europe and the United States on the whole, and market sentiment is still relatively pessimistic. With the rapid decline of prices in the early stage, the market is gradually digesting the negative impact, and copper may continue its weak trend in the near future.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea market price fell slightly this week, from 2868.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2638.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 8.02%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%. On July 17, the urea commodity index was 122.70, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.45% from 152.33, the highest point in the cycle (2022-05-15), and up 120.68% from 55.60, the lowest point on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is low

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3100 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2560 yuan / ton this weekend, down 240 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2510 yuan / ton this weekend, down 270 yuan / ton compared with last weekend;

According to the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall looked low this week: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, from 5766.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5798.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.55%, a year-on-year increase of 37.07% compared with the same period last year; Anthracite prices are temporarily stable. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, from 8800.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 7966.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 9.47%.

From the perspective of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is mainly rigid. Agricultural demand in some regions has been appropriately followed up. Compound fertilizer and rubber plate factories are generally started, and just need to purchase. The price of melamine fell slightly, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers overhaul, and the daily output of urea is less than 150000 tons.

The future price of urea may rebound at the bottom

In the middle and late July, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, dominated by consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream cost of urea is generally supported. The downstream agricultural demand is general, the industrial demand is mainly rigid, the printing standard is stimulated, and the daily output of urea is at a low level. Recently, urea may rise in a narrow range.

The price of acetic anhydride fell violently this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply this week, and the market of acetic anhydride still fell. As of July 18, the price of acetic anhydride was 6550 yuan / ton, down 5.42% from 6925 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. The price of acetic acid fell violently, the cost of raw materials fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell this week.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell violently

 
It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of business club that the price of acetic acid fell this week and the market of acetic acid fell. As of July 18, the price of acetic acid was 3712.50 yuan / ton, down 4.81% from 3900 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend; The price of acetic acid fell violently, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the pressure of acetic anhydride fell was great.

Methanol prices fluctuated and fell

As can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of the business club, the methanol price fell violently this week, and the methanol market fell violently. As of July 18, the methanol price was 2560 yuan / ton, down 2.66% from 2630 yuan / ton on July 10 last weekend. This week, the price of methanol fell, the raw material cost of acetic anhydride fell, the rising momentum of acetic anhydride weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Outlook

Analysts of acetic anhydride data of business agency believe that the prices of raw materials methanol and acetic acid fell violently this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the price of acetic anhydride still fell; The price of raw materials continued to decline and gradually approached the cost line. Although acetic anhydride still had profit space, with the reduction of profit space, manufacturers’ enthusiasm for starting fell, and the supply of acetic acid industrial chain in the future was expected to be reduced and strengthened. In general, the decline in the price of acetic anhydride raw materials remained the same, and the price of acetic anhydride fell in shock. In the future, the supply of acetic acid industrial chain is expected to decrease, and the price of acetic anhydride has limited room to fall.