Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the domestic vitamin C price is temporarily stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C is stable at 31 yuan / kg, without any rise or fall.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic vitamin C market is running smoothly this week, and the current mainstream price of feed grade is 25-28 yuan / kg. In the peak season of enterprise maintenance, the market supply was tightened and the price began to firm.

Upstream: corn prices fluctuated and fell. It is expected that during the first half of August, the corn price in the main production areas will mainly keep a stable trend of grinding the bottom, and the local market will have a bullish trend, but most regions will maintain a generally stable trend. In the short term, the market still lacks the foundation to support the sharp rise and fall of the market.

This week, the price of vitamin a stopped falling and stabilized. The mainstream price of feed grade vitamin A is 120-130 yuan / ton, and the European market price is 42-45 euros / kg. As the domestic mainstream factories are undergoing maintenance, the market supply is reduced, and there is a strong atmosphere of price support in the market. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

The price of vitamin E dropped slightly this week. The weekly average price of feed grade vitamin E was stable at 83.33 yuan / kg, and the weekend average price was 83 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.4%. The European market price this week was 9.0-9.4 euros / kg, down from last week. The off-season is light, and the enterprise mainly completes orders from old customers, and the price is flexibly adjusted.

Future forecast

According to the vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of the business community, the overall bottom of the vitamin market has been consolidated, and individual varieties have started to show an upward trend. We should pay close attention to market information and enterprise production and sales dynamics.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic adipic acid continued to decline this week (8.1-5), with a decline of 1.03% this week. The mainstream quotation in East China market fell by 100-200 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the market price range of adipic acid was 9500-9700 yuan / ton. On the one hand, crude oil fluctuates, the upward momentum is weak, pure benzene continues to fall, cyclohexanone, cyclohexane and other products decline deeper, and the negative impact on the cost side is intensified. In addition, the manufacturer has high inventory pressure, constantly reducing load to balance negative profit, and weak market demand.

From the perspective of market supply, the adipic acid operation rate this week slightly decreased compared with the previous week, and is currently maintained at about 50%. At present, there is no information guidance on the supply side. The inventory pressure of the manufacturer is still prominent. The weak market demand leads to a decline in supply and the profit of the manufacturer is inverted.

Trend of adipic acid industry chain

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain is still relatively weak this week. The upstream products pure benzene, cyclohexanone and cyclohexane all dropped to varying degrees, adipic acid remained weak, the trading center shifted significantly downward, and the manufacturer’s profits were inverted, maintaining a negative profit range. In addition, the downstream PA66 slightly stopped falling this week, but did not rebound, and the terminal remained at a weak level.

Market trend of adipic acid upstream pure benzene

Market trend of cyclohexanone in adipic acid upstream

The support of upstream raw materials is insufficient, and the decline of pure benzene price is deepened this week. According to the monitoring of business agency, the weekly increase of pure benzene is 3.04%. The main factory of pure benzene has lowered the ex factory price for three consecutive times, with a cumulative range of 700 yuan / ton. The inventory of pure benzene in East China decreased, and the overall supply of the spot market decreased. In addition, the inventory of East China port fell, and the spot quantity was small. The good supply side can not offset the bad demand brought by the slowdown. The prices of cyclohexanone and cyclohexane also dropped, at -0.99% and -0.36% respectively. It shows that the upstream cost still forms a negative pressure on adipic acid.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: the downstream performance of adipic acid is sluggish. The downstream purchase volume decreases. According to the monitoring of business news agency, the PA66 in the lower reaches of adipic acid increased or decreased by 0% in the week. This week, the load level of domestic PA66 industry continued to fall in a narrow range, but the spot supply in the market is still abundant, and the supply pressure is difficult to solve. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, the current end-user enterprises tend to follow up with goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to high price goods. In the traditional off-season, the demand of downstream factories is shrinking, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the shipping resistance of merchants is large. The transaction in the market is declining, and the seller is not in a good mood, and gradually tries to reduce the yield order. In short, the weak downstream demand is the fundamental reason that restricts the rebound of adipic acid.

In the later stage, the Business Association believes that the decline of crude oil price will bring bad news to the chemical market, and the continuous decline of pure benzene price will suppress the downstream adipic acid. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is no favorable guidance on the supply side, and the order follow-up on the demand side is slow. Therefore, it is expected that the adipic acid market will still operate weakly.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the PP market fell this week, and the spot price of wire drawing brand fell. As of August 5, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8133.33 yuan / ton, up or down by – 1.31% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price has further declined this week. Due to the weak support of raw material cost and the poor downstream demand, the propylene market is under pressure. The enterprises are not able to deliver goods, and the downstream customers mainly pay small bills, and the prices are seriously depressed. The enterprises are delivering goods, and the prices are successively lowered. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The supply of propylene market is loose. Under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the price of propylene is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

The price of propylene fell, and the trend of crude oil was weak under the influence of many macro inflation. This week, the support of PP cost side weakened. In terms of industrial load, recently, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises has dropped, the supply pressure of enterprises’ independent load reduction and maintenance diversion is partial, and the operation is biased to digest inventory. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory position rises instead of falling and is at a high level. At the same time, the on-site import sources increased synchronously, intensifying market competition. The purchase follow-up of the downstream factories of wire drawing materials is biased to just maintain production. In terms of operation, they buy at a low price and have a strong resistance to the high price supply. Traders gradually yield profits when shipping, and follow the market. The operating rate of terminal enterprises is at the off-season level, and it is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 5, the spot price of domestic fiber PP fell after rising. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8166.67 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of – 3.73%. This week, the load of the downstream non-woven fabric enterprises, the main force of PP fiber materials, was maintained as a whole, and the demand and operation of end-users continued the off-season mode of large-scale enterprises maintaining production and small and medium-sized enterprises reducing the load. The product consumption is general, and there is no large-scale replenishment operation. During the week, the loss of wire drawing material capacity and the weak rigid demand pulled the market, causing the spot price to fluctuate. It is expected that the fiber market will stabilize in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, the market of meltblown PP fell this week. As of August 5, the average price of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9400 yuan / ton, up or down 0% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic. Recently, the number of confirmed cases in China is small, the pressure of epidemic prevention continues to decrease, medical meltblown cloth materials enter the off-season of consumption, the demand decreases, and the support for spot prices is not obvious. The supply of meltblown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of meltblown PP will be mainly based on finishing and operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business news agency believe that: in early August, the domestic polypropylene market fluctuated downward, the raw material propylene market fell, the international crude oil also fell, and the support of PP cost end weakened. The demand of terminal enterprises develops slowly, the mentality of merchants is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the recent PP market will continue to be in shock.

Price dynamics: on August 8, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 8150 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 8150 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 8150 yuan / ton;

East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 8150 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8150 yuan / ton;

Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 8150 yuan / ton;

Others: the quotation of Jingbo Petrochemical is 8050 yuan / ton, the quotation of HSBC Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton, the quotation of Weilian chemical is 8053 yuan / ton, the quotation of Xinhai Petrochemical is 8100 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Hongrun Petrochemical is 8200 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the US economic data is good, and the employment data shows strong growth, alleviating the negative sentiment of the economic recession on energy demand, and the oil price rises slightly.

Today, Weilian chemical reduced its pure benzene by 50 yuan / ton, and Jingbo Petrochemical reduced its pure benzene by 50 yuan / ton.

The cost side is weak; The decrease of centralized parking in the downstream reduces the demand for pure benzene; Sinopec has continuously lowered its listing price. The pure benzene market is in a bad mood and the price is down. Today, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8050-8200 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market declined this week, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry declined slightly. On August 7, the rare earth index was 720 points, which was the same as yesterday. It was 28.50% lower than the highest point 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and 165.68% higher than the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

This week, the product prices in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of the mainstream praseodymium neodymium system in the rare earth market declined. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide declined slightly. As of August 8, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 802500 yuan / ton, and the price dropped by 6.14% this week; The price of neodymium metal was 1.015 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.58%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 805000 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 5.85%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 754500 yuan / ton, down 4.49% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 920000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.15%; The price of metal praseodymium was 1.095 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 5.19%. This week, the domestic rare earth market continued to decline.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market is declining, the recent downstream purchase is not active, and the number of new orders is relatively small. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises is deepened, and the purchasing intention is weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises have reduced production due to the shortage of raw material inventory due to the shortage of waste supply. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles in the downstream is reduced, the demand for spot purchase is weak, and the market price continues to fall. There is no obvious improvement in the downstream demand side, the purchase demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium has dropped sharply. The number of active offers made by the separation enterprises in the field is reduced, and the purchase is cautious. The offers of the traders are active, and some merchants intend to sell goods at a profit. In addition, the purchasing intention of the metal factory is not high. The market trend of light rare earth continues to decline.

The purchase orders of the downstream magnetic material industry have not improved, and rare earths are purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not buying down, the price trend in the market has dropped sharply. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry, in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.502 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 29.7% and 34.4% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. The automobile production and sales increased significantly. In the recent period, the demand for new energy was general, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price declined slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China has dropped. As of August 8, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.295 million yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.86% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.305 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 0.22%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.055 million yuan / ton, which fell by 0.81% this week; This week, the price trend of terbium series dropped. The domestic price of terbium oxide was 13.75 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 17.4 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths has dropped slightly. The leading magnetic material factory purchases according to demand, which makes the domestic market of heavy rare earths fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in light rare earth ore use areas in Sichuan and other places has decreased. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in light rare earth ore use areas. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, the production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be mild, The downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market has dropped slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industrial pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are all + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earths will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock and mineral type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and the ionic type rare earth is 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increase will be concentrated on light rare earth, which will be a long-term trend. In the long term, the domestic rare earth market will still be supported.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal plants, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government introduces policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the terminal will be boosted in the later period. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the downstream procurement is not active in the short term, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to fall. However, in the long term, the rare earth industry still has support.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite fell sharply this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the week was 3033.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 2783.33 yuan / ton, down 8.24% in the week.

Affected by the sharp drop in raw material cost, in August, the enterprise comprehensively reduced the factory price of sodium pyrosulfite, which led to a sharp drop in the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite at the beginning of the month. This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite market price range was 2600-3000 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were concentrated around 2800 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some enterprises that have not reported are not included in the scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details.).

In July, the domestic sulfur price fell sharply, the soda ash price continued to be weak, and the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price continued to be under pressure under the pressure of cost suppression. In August, the price of sulfur rebounded slightly, the price of soda ash continued to be weak, and the cost of raw materials was still low. The cost will continue to suppress the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that under the pressure of cost, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will still be under pressure in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell sharply this month. The hydrochloric acid price fell from 270.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 196.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 27.16%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.24%.

On June 26, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 74.34, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.09% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 313.46% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is strengthened, and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this month, and the downstream demand was general.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell sharply, giving insufficient support to hydrochloric acid. The downstream ammonium chloride market fell sharply, and the price of ammonium chloride fell from 1565.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 1222.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 21.88%, up 21.34% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, and the price fell from 2230.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2141.25 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 3.98%, up 26.70% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The downstream market fell sharply, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid weakened. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products have a negative impact on the price of sulfuric acid this month.

Slightly volatile decline in the aftermarket

In the middle and early August, the hydrochloric acid market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has fallen sharply recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream ammonium chloride market has fallen sharply, the price of polyaluminum chloride has fallen slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Business analysts believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fall slightly.

According to the price monitoring of the business club, under the influence of the sharp decline of the upstream polyester staple fiber futures and Zheng cotton futures in the first half of this month, pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn followed the decline, and the raw materials gradually stopped falling and retreated after the middle of the month. As there was no expectation of a significant improvement in downstream demand, the yarn market was light, and inventories were high. Pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn were mainly stable. As of July 29, the average market price of polyester yarn was 14300 yuan / ton, down 175 yuan / ton or 1.21% from 14475 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, down 1.04% year on year. The average market price of polyester cotton yarn was 19160 yuan / ton, down 1440 yuan / ton or 6.99% from 20600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On July 16, a number of yarn representatives from Changle participated in the meeting to discuss the production reduction. Under the background of sharp decline in raw materials, high inventories and serious losses, they proposed that each self-discipline reduce production by 50%. Previously, more than 90% of the spinning mills in the main polyester yarn production areas in Fujian and Jiangxi have reduced production, and the operating rate has decreased from 68% in May to 51%, but it is still not enough for the current depressed market. Polyester yarn downstream in southern China is mostly used for knitting machines. Taking large circular knitting machines as an example, the starting rate of circular knitting machines in Fujian and Guangdong is only 2-3%, and Xiao Shao is around 40%, which is still in oversupply compared with the downstream. The equity inventory of finished products of the cotton mill was about 24 days, and the downstream purchase intention was not high, resulting in a cash flow loss of 300 yuan / ton.

The life of polyester cotton yarn is more difficult. Most cotton mills still have cotton inventory with a unit price of more than 20000 yuan / ton. Now cotton has fallen to around 15000. Although the immediate cash flow of yarn has become positive, the actual loss is serious. There are a large number of production reductions and closures in Shandong, Jiangsu, Hebei and Fujian. The inventory of cotton mills is generally more than one month, and there are not a few more than two months. The startup rate of polyester cotton yarn still has a downward trend. Domestic demand is sluggish, the “Xinjiang cotton” ban is outside, coupled with the sharp decline in raw materials, cotton containing enterprises are experiencing a “dark moment”.

The polyester staple fiber market fell sharply in the early stage, and crude oil and polyester raw materials rebounded after oversold. Affected by this, the polyester staple fiber market also stopped falling and stabilized. However, the commencement of cotton mills in Changle and other places began to decline, and the negative feedback of high inventory and low demand in the downstream was obvious. Although the futures stopped falling and stabilized slightly, the focus of shipment in the spot market gradually fell to follow up the early futures decline. The basis gradually weakened to around +350 to +450 of the 09 contract. As of the 29th, the mainstream of Jiangsu and Zhejiang 1.4d negotiation is about 7900-8100 yuan / ton, which is a single negotiation. During the month, Zheng Mian once hit the limit, and the main cf2209 contract fell to 13560 yuan / ton that day. Then Zheng Mian oversold and rebounded, and the main contract was sealed on the daily limit. Recently, Zheng cotton futures prices fluctuated too much, which had a significant impact on the upstream and downstream of the cotton textile industry, and the spot purchase and sales of cotton basically stagnated.

In terms of textiles, in July, domestic demand and exports were sluggish, superimposed on the traditional off-season, and downstream demand continued to be weak. Houdao weaving factory was cautious about going unipolar. The accumulation of finished products in the industrial chain continues to be serious, and the lack of liquidity makes it difficult to form positive feedback to the raw material end. According to the feedback of enterprises, the inventory of textile mills is low at present. If the order level recovers in the later stage, it is expected to trigger further replenishment. At present, some enterprises have enlarged the scale of replenishment at a low level. It is uncertain whether the peak season from September to October is still “not prosperous in the peak season”. It is expected that before October, it will be in the state of “buy as you go, buy as you go”.

Aftermarket forecast: Generally speaking, the recent yarn market sales continued to be poor, and the price continued to be weak, especially for cotton yarn, the manufacturer’s inventory was obvious, mainly at a loss, and generally struggled with helplessness and waiting. The current market is still low under the influence of domestic and foreign economic situation and high temperature. The cotton mills have basically taken measures to reduce production and protect prices. The market mentality is still insufficient in the near future, and it is difficult for the middle and lower reaches to purchase.

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of July 29, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 9266.67 yuan / ton this week. The price of cyclohexane this week was mainly stable, and there was no significant change in the price compared with the same period last week. At present, the operating rate is normal, the logistics is smooth, the transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 9200 yuan / ton, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the stable operation is mainly maintained, The focus of the negotiation is stable, and the price fluctuation range this week is not large.

The average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane in Japan is 9833.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains about 9266.67 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane is balanced, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The focus of negotiation is stable, and the supply side is normal.

Upstream pure benzene: upstream pure benzene operates weakly in a narrow range. In East China, Yangzi Petrochemical quoted 9150 yuan / ton; South China: Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 9150 yuan / ton; Central China: the quotation of Wuhan ethylene is 9150 yuan / ton.

Chemical industry index: on July 28, the chemical industry index was 996 points, down 3 points from yesterday, down 28.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 66.56% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business agency, the cyclohexane market is expected to operate smoothly in the short term, and the mainstream price is about 9200 yuan / ton. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

In July 2022, the domestic 1# lead ingot Market showed a “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 14995 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 15195 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.33%.

On July 29, the lead commodity index was 92.48, up 0.1 points from yesterday, down 30.99% from 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), the highest point in the cycle, and up 23.92% from 74.63 points, the lowest point on March 19, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: down; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

Lead futures market in July 2022

Variety, closing price on the 1st, closing price on the 29th, inventory on the 1st, inventory on the 29th

Shanghai lead, 15030 yuan / ton, 15240 yuan / ton, 78025 tons, 68151 tons

London lead, 1930 US dollars / ton, 2036.5 US dollars / ton, 38850 tons, 39500 tons

In the futures market, the overall low rebound trend of Lun lead in July, with a monthly fluctuation range of $1784.5-2047 / ton, with a monthly increase of more than 4.7%. In terms of Shanghai tin, the main contract changed months. At present, the main contract is 2209 contract. The overall trend of this month is “V”, and the overall decline in the first half of the month is mainly due to many macro negative factors. The metal market is generally under pressure, and the lead price is lower. The CPI data of the United States in June dragged Shanghai lead down to 14345 yuan / ton on the 15th, hitting a new low in nearly 11 months. Later, as the market negative news is gradually digested, the trend hit the bottom and rebounded, returning to the line of 15200 yuan / ton.

The trend of the spot market still follows the trend of Shanghai lead this month, showing a “V” trend as a whole. In addition to the macro impact, which has dragged the lead price down to 14600 yuan / ton, basically speaking, there has been little change in the supply side in the near future. Refineries have successively ended maintenance and resumed production, and the output has rebounded recently. In terms of primary lead, it has not been recovered due to power rationing in Anhui. Downstream, boosted by the end of the seasonal off-season and the approaching peak season, battery sales have improved to a certain extent. In the early stage, the lead price has declined, and some downstream actively purchased. At present, the overall social inventory of lead ingots has declined significantly, giving significant support to the lead price. However, with the lead price rising, the actual transaction situation in the current market is lower than that in the early stage, and the downstream is on the sidelines as a whole. On the whole, the current macro performance of the lead ingot Market is acceptable, the demand in the downstream peak season is expected to increase, and the overall inventory decline this month, especially the reduction of 10000 tons of inventory in the previous period, which boosted the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will have some room to rise under the boost of demand, and the macro impact will be focused on when the fundamental changes are limited.