According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 19 to August 26, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market fell from 9840 yuan / ton to 9480 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.66% in the week. The price fell by 7.42% month on month and 10.60% year-on-year.

This week, domestic cyclohexanone fell weakly, mainly due to the sluggish downstream demand.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of August 26:

Region, price

In East China, 9600-9700 yuan / ton will be delivered in cash

In South China, 9700-9800 yuan / ton in cash

Shandong Province, 9350-9450 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the domestic pure benzene market price rebounded in stages, and the market transaction atmosphere improved.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot market of caprolactam is basically stable, and there is no significant change in supply.

The cost side support is relatively stable, and the supply and demand of cyclohexanone is weak. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is mainly weak.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market declined this week, and the domestic rare earth industry declined slightly. On August 21, the rare earth index was 678 points, which was the same as yesterday. It was 32.67% lower than the highest point 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and 150.18% higher than the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

This week, the price of products in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of the mainstream praseodymium neodymium system in the rare earth market dropped sharply. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have dropped significantly. As of the 22nd, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 730000 yuan / ton, and the price dropped by 6.41% this week; The price of neodymium metal was 910000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 6.67%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 735000 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 6.37%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 655000 yuan / ton, down 12.08% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 805000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 11.33%; The price of metal praseodymium was 1.025 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 3.76%. This week, the domestic rare earth market continued to decline.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market has dropped sharply. Recently, the downstream purchasing is not active, and the number of new orders is relatively small. Affected by the sentiment of buying up and not buying down, the wait-and-see mood of the magnetic material enterprises has deepened, and the purchasing intention is weak. In addition, the demand has further declined due to the impact of power limitation and production stoppage in some regions, and the rare earth market has dropped significantly. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises have reduced production due to the shortage of raw material inventory due to the shortage of waste supply. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the power restriction and epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles in the downstream is reduced, the demand for spot purchase is weak, and the market price continues to fall. There is no obvious improvement in the downstream demand side, the purchase demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium has dropped sharply. The number of active offers made by the separation enterprises in the field is reduced, and the purchase is cautious. The offers of the traders are active. Some merchants intend to sell goods at a profit. In addition, the purchasing intention of the metal factory is not high. The market trend of light rare earths declines sharply.

The purchase orders of the downstream magnetic material industry have not improved, and rare earths are purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium and praseodymium oxide has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the price trend in the market continues to decline. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry, in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales volume reached 2.455 million and 2.42 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 31.5% and 29.7%. The automobile production and sales volume increased significantly. Recently, the demand for new energy is still supported. However, the upstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, the domestic light rare earth market continues to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price drops slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China decreased slightly. As of the 22nd, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.235 million yuan / ton, with a price drop of 1.54% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.205 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 2.86%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3 million yuan / ton, and the price fell by 0.66% this week; This week, the price trend of terbium series dropped. The domestic price of terbium oxide was 13.5 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 17.25 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths has dropped slightly. The leading magnetic material factory purchases according to demand, which makes the domestic market of heavy rare earths fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in light rare earth ore use areas in Sichuan and other places has decreased. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in light rare earth ore use areas. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, the production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be mild, The downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market has dropped slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industrial pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the second batch of total control indicators for rare earth mining, smelting and separation in 2022. In 2022, the total control indicators of the second batch of rare earth mining, smelting and separation are 109200 tons and 104800 tons respectively. The total control indicators of rare earth mining, smelting and separation in the first two batches in 2022 are 210000 tons and 202000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase. As soon as this news comes out, the confidence of manufacturers in the field declines, and the domestic rare earth market continues to decline.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal plants, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government introduces policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the terminal will be boosted in the later period. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the short-term downstream procurement is not active, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to fall.

From August 12 to August 19, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzene in the week decreased slightly. It was 6997 yuan / ton at the end of last week and 6583 yuan / ton at the end of this week, with a weekly drop of 5.92%.

In terms of crude oil, at the beginning of this week, the oil price fell for three consecutive days due to the increasing concern of the market about the global economic outlook. However, the data released by the EIA on Wednesday showed that the total inventory of crude oil and gasoline in the United States fell more than expected, the fear of slowing demand eased, and the oil price rebounded. As of August 19, Brent’s price in this week fell by $1.43/barrel or 1.46% compared with last week; WTI fell by US $1.32/barrel, or 1.43%.

According to the crude oil analysts of business news, in the short term, the oil price may also be disturbed by unexpected factors in addition to being affected by the fundamentals. The hurricane climate in North America is approaching. According to the judgment of previous years, it may damage the refinery facilities along the Gulf of Mexico, which may help the oil price rebound. In addition, in the medium term, it may be affected by the soaring natural gas price in Europe, which will drive the oil price higher. In the long run, the risk of economic recession and epidemic situation are still the biggest constraints on oil prices, and the risk of far-end oil prices is high.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

August 4, 8450, – 200

August 5, 8150, – 300

August 11, 7950, – 200

August 16, 7750, – 200

August 18, 7500, – 250

As for the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene, on August 18, 2022, the listed price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced by 250 yuan / ton and 7500 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7650 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical quoted 7503 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7600 yuan / ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has dropped continuously since July.

This week, the crude oil trend is unstable, the cost support is weak, and the guidance to the industrial chain is not obvious. In terms of supply, the shutdown and maintenance devices in the early stage were restarted in succession, resulting in an increase in domestic pure benzene supply. In terms of port cargo sources, recently imported ships have been concentrated in the port. The inventory of East China port has increased by 6700 tons to 37700 tons compared with last week. The accumulated inventory of the port is obvious, and the overall supply side is mainly negative. Demand: most of the downstream products suffered losses this week. There are many shutdown and load reduction devices, and the demand for pure benzene is insufficient. In terms of cost, the bidding price of crude benzene dropped significantly this week, and with the recent increase in the operating rate of coking enterprises, the supply of crude benzene increased compared with the previous period. Generally speaking, in the future market, the business community believes that although pure benzene has been falling continuously and the purchasing sentiment in the downstream has improved, most products are still at a loss, and it is difficult to greatly increase the demand for pure benzene in the short term. The market is waiting for the downstream to make up for the bargain. In terms of devices, the 140000 T / a pure benzene capacity of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II and the 1.27 million T / a pure benzene capacity of Shenghong refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. will be put into production. In the later stage, there are still 330000 T / a capacity of Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd., 300000 t / a capacity of Shandong Fuhai Hualian phase II and 800000 T / a capacity of Guangdong Petrochemical Co., Ltd. planned to be put into production. The pressure of supply and demand is prominent, the market of pure benzene is very bad, and the short-term price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and external price trends, pure benzene port inventory, pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

The crude benzene market continued to decline this week. The mainstream price in Shandong was 6520-6525 yuan / ton, down 560 yuan / ton from last week. In terms of operating rate, this week’s coking enterprises were affected by the two rounds of coke increase. The operating rate recovered significantly compared with the previous period, and the supply of crude benzene also increased. With the increase of crude benzene supply, the market was once again negative. Therefore, the bidding price was significantly lowered this week. It is expected that in the future, under the influence of the obvious increase in supply and a certain reduction in downstream demand, the crude benzene market is expected to operate under pressure, and there is a certain space for decline.

This week, the price of o-benzene is temporarily stable

It can be seen from the price trend chart of ortho xylene in the business community that the market of ortho xylene is temporarily stable this week, while the price of ortho xylene in the external market is fluctuating and rising, and the price of domestic ortho xylene is temporarily stable. As of August 23, the price of o-benzene was 8000 yuan / T, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of o-benzene on August 15 at the beginning of last week. On August 22, the ox commodity index was 68.29, which was the same as yesterday, down 31.71% from the highest point 100.00 in the cycle (2013-03-07), and up 110.51% from the lowest point 32.44 on April 13, 2020. (Note: the period refers to February 1, 2013 to now).

Tight supply of o-benzene outer disk

This week, the external price of o-xylene stopped falling, and the external price of o-xylene in Europe and Asia increased slightly. Since the second quarter, the import volume of o-xylene has been almost zero, and recently the export window of o-xylene has been opened, the port inventory of o-xylene has dropped sharply, the external supply of o-xylene is tight, and the external price of o-xylene has increased, which has a certain supporting effect on the price rise of domestic o-xylene.

This week, the price of mixed xylene is temporarily stable

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in the business community, the price of mixed xylene is strong and stable for the time being this week. As of August 23, the price of mixed xylene was 7960 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of mixed xylene on August 15 at the beginning of the week; The price of mixed xylene increased by 0.13% compared with 7950 yuan / ton on August 14 last weekend. This week, the price of mixed xylene is strong and stable, the cost of o-xylene is stable, and the downward pressure of o-xylene is weakened.

This week, the downstream phthalic anhydride price fluctuated and rose

It can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in the business community that the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose this week, and the market of phthalic anhydride was strongly adjusted. As of August 23, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8100 yuan / ton, up by 0.47% from 8062.50 yuan / ton on August 15 at the beginning of the week. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride increased, the demand for o-xylene recovered, and the driving force for the increase of o-xylene increased.

Future outlook

According to the data analysis of ortho xylene of business agency, the price of ortho xylene has risen this week, and the price of ortho xylene has risen, adding to the warming of the phthalic anhydride market, the ortho xylene has been actively picked up, the inventory of ortho xylene in the port has decreased, and the driving force for the rise of ortho xylene has increased. In the future, the external supply is tight and the market of phthalic anhydride is warming. In the future, the demand for ortho xylene is warming and the supply is tight. It is expected that the price of ortho xylene will rise slightly in the future.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, and the average market price is 173.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, the year-on-year decrease was 34.18%. On August 21, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 45.61, which was the same as yesterday, down 66.92% from the highest point 137.89 in the cycle (October 26, 2021), and up 153.67% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is low and the cost support is insufficient. The market price of downstream polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly, from 2120.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2095.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.18%, a year-on-year increase of 20.71% over the same period of last year; The market price of ammonium chloride decreased slightly, from 1210.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 1145.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 5.37%. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weakened.

Future forecast

In late August, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fall in a narrow range. The recent market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low, and the cost support is insufficient. The market prices of polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride in the downstream have dropped slightly, and the downstream purchasing intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a small shock and decline in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community’s bulk list, the bromine price is weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 57600 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 55900 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 2.95% and a year-on-year increase of 30.76%. On August 18, the bromine commodity index was 196.84, down 1.41 points from yesterday, down 19.72% from the highest point 245.18 (October 27, 2021) in the cycle, and up 234.08% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the mainstream price of bromine in Shandong enterprises is about 55000-56000 yuan / ton, and the price of bromine is weak this week. However, the overall procurement of downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries is general recently, the market transaction is light, and the shipment of bromine enterprises is under pressure. The attitude of the operators is pessimistic, and the atmosphere in the venue is general.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic sulfur price is temporarily stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend is 1153.33 yuan / ton, down 34.34% year-on-year. The domestic sulfur market is mainly stable, and the price trend is stable but small. The sulfur sales of refineries in Shandong Province are acceptable. The manufacturers are expected to wait and see the sulfur market according to their own inventory and shipment.

Business analysts believe that the price of bromine is in a weak position in the near future. Although the bromine enterprises intend to stabilize the price, the demand of the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine is relatively weak in the near future. The supply and demand of both parties are in a game, and the price is down. It is expected that the short-term price of bromine will be in a weak position. See the downstream market demand for details.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 12000 yuan / ton on August 8, and the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 11433 yuan / ton on August 14. The price of caprolactam fell by 4.72% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam continued to fall this week. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to drop, and the cost support of caprolactam weakened. The downstream demand is poor, and caprolactam is mainly purchased on demand. Most of the caprolactam enterprises suffered losses and the operating rate decreased. As of August 14, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 13200 yuan / ton, and the acceptance was self drawn.

Raw material pure benzene continued to decline this week. On the cost side, crude oil rose as a whole this week, which has a certain support for pure benzene. On the supply side, the shutdown and maintenance devices in the early stage are restarted in succession, and the market supply is expected to increase in the later stage. The import cargo increased, and the inventory of pure benzene in East China port this week increased by 7000 tons to 31000 tons compared with last week. On the demand side, most of the downstream are in deficit, the shutdown of the unit has decreased significantly, the operating rate has decreased as a whole, and the demand for pure benzene has weakened. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was reduced by 200 yuan / ton to 7950 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the caprolactam analysts of business society, the current caprolactam market is dominated by bad news and the price continues to decline. Both the cost side and the demand side are depressed, and the declining market continues. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will continue to decline in the short term.

Last week (August 8-14), the raw material cost was low, the downstream demand continued to be weak, and the price of nylon filament fell sharply. The supporting role of the cost side continues to weaken. The supply of nylon fiber manufacturers is stable, but there is still resistance to shipment. It is difficult to trade at high prices in the market. The demand of the downstream end market is flat, and the overall market production and sales are flat.

Market price trend

Nylon price chart

Price trend of nylon POY (86d / 24F)

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of nylon filament fell sharply last week (August 8-14). As of August 14, the price of domestic nylon POY (superior product; 86d / 24F) was 15775 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 825 yuan / ton and a weekly drop of 4.95%. Nylon DTY (premium product; 70D / 24F) was quoted at 18200 yuan / ton, down 900 yuan / ton this week, down 4.71% this week. The price of nylon FDY (premium product: 40d / 12F) is 18825 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 850 yuan / ton and a weekly drop of 4.32%.

Upstream raw material Market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Cost side: last week (August 8-14), the market price of raw material caprolactam continued to fall, and the spot price was running at a low level. The price fell from 12000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11433 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly drop of 4.72%. The terminal demand is in the low season. Most of the caprolactam enterprises suffered losses, the operating rate declined, the market was dominated by bad news, the price continued to decline, the cost side and the demand side were both depressed, and the decline continued. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will continue to decline in the short term.

Supply and demand: since the end of June, the terminal demand has not improved at present. The terminal customers just need to follow up, and the downstream weaving factories are not active in purchasing. Some customers are more focused on sales and production, and mainly consume raw material inventory in the short term; The on-site supply of goods remains sufficient. Although some manufacturers have production reduction expectations, the on-site supply of goods remains sufficient.

In general, the nylon market trend is weak and downward, the upstream raw material market is expected to decline in a narrow range, the supporting role of the cost side is weakened, the supply in the field remains stable, the downstream end market is affected by the atmosphere of buying up and not buying down, the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high, and the actual trading atmosphere in the field is flat.

Future forecast

Nylon filament has a weak supporting role on the cost side, sufficient supply of goods, and the demand side continues to be weak. There is not too much positive feedback at the terminal, and the market is mainly negative. Business analysts predict that the nylon filament market will continue to be weak in the later period, and the price will continue to fluctuate and decline in the short term.

Recent trend of urea price

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic urea market price dropped slightly this week. The urea price dropped from 2426.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 2348.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 3.22%, a year-on-year decrease of 16.14%. On August 14, the urea commodity index was 109.21, which was the same as yesterday, down 28.31% from the highest point 152.33 in the cycle (May 15, 2022), and up 96.42% from the lowest point 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now).

General cost support, insufficient downstream demand and low urea supply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream factory price of domestic urea fell slightly this week.

According to the data of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream market of urea has increased slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas has increased slightly, from 6466.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7026.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 8.66%, a year-on-year increase of 31.16% over the same period of last year; Anthracite prices are temporarily stable. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was adjusted at a low level, and the price was 7233.33 yuan / ton.

From the demand side, the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is insufficient. Agricultural demand has basically ended. The rubber plate factory is generally started and mainly needs to purchase. Compound fertilizer enterprises continued to wait and see, and began to purchase one after another at the weekend. The price of melamine was adjusted at a low level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was general. From the perspective of supply: some manufacturers have overhauled, and the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons.

Urea price may rise slightly

In the middle and late August, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, mainly through consolidation. The urea analyst of business community believes that the upstream cost of urea is generally supported. The agricultural demand in the downstream is weakened, the industrial demand is just increased, and the daily output of urea is at a low level. Recent urea or narrow range fluctuation rise is the main trend.

This week, the zinc price fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 15, the zinc price was 24984 yuan / ton, up 1.98% from 24500 yuan / ton on August 8 at the beginning of the week. This week, the zinc price rose first and then fell. The fear of supply shortage caused the zinc price to rise sharply. The macroeconomic environment affected the poor demand and the zinc price fell rapidly.

High energy prices cause supply shortage concerns

According to the latest data released by Glencore, the company produced 350900 tons of zinc ingots in the first half of this year, a decrease of 12% – 47500 tons compared with the first half of 2021. Glencore has warned that the energy crisis in Europe has posed a substantial threat to supply, and the company has suspended the operation of a zinc smelter in Europe. At the same time, the company’s other smelters in the region are hardly profitable. Although the demand for industrial metals is facing increasing risks, the European power crisis has seriously affected the supply prospects. After Glencore’s financial report was released overnight, the zinc price of LME soared by 8.5%, the largest intraday increase since March. The fear of supply shortage in zinc market has intensified, which has stimulated the sharp rise of zinc price and increased the driving force of zinc market.

The macro economy is weak and the demand of zinc market is declining

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, from January to July, the national real estate development investment was 7946.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%. From January to July, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 8591.94 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. The newly started area of houses was 760.67 million square meters, down 36.1%. Among them, the newly started residential area was 559.19 million square meters, down 36.8%. The completed area of houses was 320.28 million square meters, down 23.3%. The real estate market is in full decline, the macroeconomic environment is weak, the demand of zinc market is expected to decline, and the rise of zinc market is not supported enough.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the continuous energy crisis in Europe and the growing concern about the supply shortage in the international zinc market have played a certain role in supporting the rise of zinc price. However, the domestic demand for zinc has dropped significantly. Although the national infrastructure stimulus policies have been issued one after another, the lag of the policy impact and the expected impact of insufficient demand have limited room for zinc price rise in the future. It is expected that the high zinc price in the future will be adjusted in a wide range.