According to the data of the block list of business cooperatives, as of September 14, the average price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11333.33 yuan/ton, which was the same as that of last Thursday (September 8), 1.45% lower than that of August 14, and 39.50% lower than that of last three months.

Recent (9.8-9.14) epichlorohydrin market is stable. Recently, the price of raw propylene has risen, the price of raw glycerin is stable, and the cost is supported to some extent. Before the festival, downstream goods are replenished in an orderly manner. The market is mainly stable, and after the festival, the market is mainly cautious. The enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement is general, the market atmosphere is relatively light, and the transaction is limited.

The upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, on September 14, the reference price of propylene was 7440.60, an increase of 4.79% compared with September 1 (7100.60).

The downstream epoxy resin, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of the epoxy resin was 18900.00 on September 14, a 3.08% decrease compared with September 1 (19500.00).

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, at present, the price of propylene is relatively strong, the price of glycerin is mainly stable, the cost side is under pressure, and some devices are shut down, which has limited support for the market, and the demand side follow-up is temporarily insufficient. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will operate stably under pressure in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

Take the rutile titanium dioxide produced by sulfuric acid process with large sales volume in the domestic market as an example. According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of titanium dioxide will fall this week. The average price of domestic titanium dioxide last Friday was 17500 yuan/ton, and this Friday was 16350 yuan/ton, with a price reduction rate of 6.57% within the week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market was lowered this week. The domestic titanium dioxide market is relatively light, the market is weak and downward, and the downstream is in a strong wait-and-see mood, so it is prudent to take orders and purchase on demand. Titanium dioxide manufacturers have great inventory pressure, and the factory price has been greatly reduced. Up to now, most domestic rutile titanium dioxide quotations are between 15500-17000 yuan/ton; The quotation of anatase titanium dioxide is between 14500-15500 yuan/ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panzhihua Xichang region decreased slightly this week. The overall trading and investment of the market is relatively small, and downstream purchasers are under great pressure. They mainly wait and see, and the actual transaction situation is average. Small and medium-sized miners are under great pressure, most of them pay high prices, and the overall market is weak. Up to now, the quotation excluding tax of 38-42 grade titanium ore is about 1420-1450 yuan/ton, the quotation excluding tax of 46 grade 10 grade titanium ore is about 2060-2120 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 47 grade 20 grade titanium ore is about 2300-2400 yuan/ton. In the short term, there are few deals in the titanium concentrate market, and the overall market is weak. The actual transaction price is discussed separately.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell this week, from 244 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 238 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 2.46%. The upstream sulfur market has been consolidated at a low level recently, with average cost support. Downstream markets of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate declined slightly, and downstream customers were not enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the titanium dioxide analysts of the business agency, the price of the domestic titanium dioxide market was lowered this week, the domestic market demand was weak and declined, and the atmosphere was cold. The market of raw titanium concentrate is weak, the price of sulfuric acid drops, and the cost support is weak. The performance of the downstream real estate industry is poor, and the market demand is poor. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be dominated by weak and stable operation in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be discussed separately.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, toluene rose by a narrow margin this week. The price was 7800 yuan/ton on September 2 and 7840 yuan/ton on Friday (September 9), up 0.51% from last week; 40% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Gasoline rose positively, and the spot supply of toluene was tight. At the beginning of this week, the market continued to have a high price mentality. However, during the week, crude oil fell sharply, and logistics in some regions was limited, and trading before the festival was average. The traders became cautious, and prices fell slightly.

In terms of external market, toluene in Asia fell broadly this week. On Thursday (September 8), the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 909 dollars/ton, down 65 dollars/ton year on year, or 6.67%.

In terms of crude oil, the expectation of tight crude oil supply still exists. OPEC + plans to cut the oil production target by 100000 barrels per day in October, but the reduction is not large. Moreover, the market is still affected by the expectation of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, and the oil price is under pressure. As of September 9, Brent’s price fell by 0.18 USD / barrel or 0.19% compared with last week; WTI fell by US $0.08/barrel, or 0.09%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose this week. On September 2, the price was 18200 yuan/ton, and on September 9, the price was 18850 yuan/ton, 3.57% higher than last week, and 30.6% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week. On September 2, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on September 9, the price was 8800 yuan/ton. The price was flat compared with last week, up 23.94% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell after rising this week. On September 2, the price was 9347 yuan/ton, and on September 9, the price was 9325 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from last week and up 27.02% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, Europe and the United States are strongly expected to raise interest rates, and the market is still worried about economic recession. In the future, the oil market will continue to play a long and short game, and the risk of economic recession and epidemic factors will still be the biggest constraints on oil prices. Continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, OPEC+’s decision on crude oil production, the impact of the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

In the short term, the supply of toluene continues to be tight, and the support of gasoline demand in the peak season still exists, so the market’s mentality of supporting prices does not decrease. However, the uncertainty of the trend of the cost side and the limitation of logistics and transportation affect the market of toluene. If gasoline falls in the future, toluene may fall. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

This week, the domestic BDO market fluctuated only a little, and the equipment of production enterprises was overhauled. At the same time, some production enterprises traded at a premium in bidding prices in order to pull the market back. However, the downstream demand was really weak, with little effect. Traders slightly reported high prices, obvious downstream resistance, and many small orders in the market.

According to the sample data monitored by the business association, from August 29 to September 5, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers was 10175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 10212 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price increased by 0.37% during the cycle, and the price fell by 12.41% month on month, down 63.03% year-on-year. In terms of market price, the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China is 10000-10200 yuan / ton, and the barrel negotiation is 12500-13500 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery). The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 10000-10200 yuan / ton, and the barrel negotiation is 12500-13500 yuan / ton (acceptance delivery).

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw materials calcium carbide: with the increase of demand, the downstream vehicles to be unloaded have entered the consumption stage, and the domestic calcium carbide Market in the short term is mainly sorted out and watched.

In terms of methanol, supply or increase, demand is expected to increase at the same time, and short-term methanol market shocks are relatively strong. BDO cost side support is strong.

In terms of downstream products, the demand performance of the end downstream is still poor, especially the market price of PTMEG spandex, the main industrial chain, is declining, which is bad for the market’s purchase and sales mentality. Other main downstream multi contract purchases are the main ones, and spot purchases are cautious and bargaining.

Some enterprises are still overhauling, the market supply continues to decrease, and the production enterprises still maintain a price defense mentality. However, the demand increment at the downstream end is not obvious, and it mainly maintains the follow-up of just needed orders, which suppresses the market trend. Analysts of BDO business agency expect that the domestic BDO market will still be dominated by concussion and consolidation.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of September 5, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in the mainstream region of China was around 1068 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on September 1. Compared with August 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1100 yuan / ton), the price was reduced by 32 yuan / ton, down 2.91%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business association that in the first week of September (8.29-9.4), the domestic market for medium and high-grade phosphate rock was stable and consolidated as a whole, the overall supply in the field was still tight, and the phosphate rock support given by the weak phosphate fertilizer market in the downstream of the terminal was weakened. As the Mid Autumn Festival approached, the downstream stock preparation before the festival will bring certain confidence to the industry. At the beginning of the month, the domestic phosphate rock market was consolidated and operated as a whole, The news inside the stadium was relatively calm. As of September 5, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1150 yuan / ton, and the price is also different from the original ore specification and powder / lump ratio. The specific price needs to be negotiated according to the actual order. The market price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 850-980 yuan / T, and the market price of 32% grade phosphorus ore is around 1200 yuan / T. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock field is mild, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, from September to now (9.1-9.4), the domestic yellow phosphorus market has shown an overall upward movement. According to the data detection of business agency, on September 4, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 32750 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.34% compared with September 1 (32000 yuan / ton).

Prediction and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

At present, the phosphate rock market as a whole does not fluctuate much. The market is mainly stable at a high level. Under the factors such as stock preparation before the holiday, the support given by the demand side can be gradually strengthened. The phosphate rock datagrapher of the business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will mainly continue to operate stably, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

Affected by the low crude oil market and sluggish demand, the domestic MTBE market in August was adjusted at a low level. According to the data of business agency, the MTBE price at the beginning of the month was 7410 yuan / ton, and the MTBE market price at the end of the month was 7530 yuan / ton. The price increased by 1.87% within the month, with a maximum amplitude of 6.58%, up 30.28% year-on-year.

Trend chart of the average price of domestic MTBE manufacturers in Shandong in August 2022:

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of bulk commodity prices in August 2022, there were 9 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that increased month on month, of which 5 kinds increased by more than 5%, accounting for 38.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with growth rates were diesel (12.09%), gasoline (10.91%) and dimethyl ether (7.04%). There were 4 commodities with a month on month decline, and 3 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 23.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 9.63%), WTI crude oil (- 7.08%) and Brent crude oil (- 5.90%). The average increase / decrease this month was 1.84%.

At the beginning of September, the MTBE market rose first and then fell. Crude oil rose and fell, and the market mentality fluctuated with it. With the price rising to a high level, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving goods has weakened, and the crude oil has plummeted again, the market is mostly waiting and waiting, and the price has entered a downward adjustment again.

In the middle of September, the MTBE market continued to decline, but by a small margin, with a drop of 150-300 yuan / ton. The trend of crude oil is unstable, the market is watching closely, the demand is weak, the supply of low-cost goods hits the market, the sales of merchants are poor, and the price has entered a downward adjustment.

At the end of September, the MTBE market rose first and then fell, and the overall fluctuation was upward. At the beginning of this week, the price of gasoline continued to rise, and the purchase enthusiasm of downstream and traders was high. In addition, some merchants were reluctant to sell, and the market continued to rise. However, as the favorable support was exhausted, the market sales turned weak, and the quotations of manufacturers fell back in a narrow range, ranging from 50 to 150 yuan / ton, the market atmosphere was volatile.

At the end of the month, the MTBE market declined first and then rose, and the overall decline was still around 50-100 yuan / ton. Affected by external bad news and weak demand, the sales of merchants are poor. With the continuous rise of crude oil and the gradual rise of gasoline prices, and the negotiation of export orders, the atmosphere of MTBE market has improved, and the quotation is gradually exploring.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on September 1, the closing price of Asian MTBE market decreased by 38.50 US dollars per ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 885.86-887.86 US dollars per ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by 27.50 US dollars per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB ara closed at 1067.99-1068.49 US dollars per ton. The closing price of us MTBE market decreased by 16.16 US dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf FOB price closed at 1041.84-1042.2 US dollars / ton (293.48-293.58 US cents / gallon).

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, FOB Singapore, 885.86-887.86 USD / T, – 38.5 USD / T

Europe, FOB Ara., 1067.99-1068.49 USD / ton, – 27.50 yuan / ton

Us, FOB Gulf, 1041.84-1042.2 USD / T, – 16.16 USD / T

With the arrival of the traditional peak season, the demand for replenishment in the market is gradually increasing. Analysts of business agency MTBE believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market may fluctuate and rise.

In August, the domestic ethanol market continued to be depressed. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the price at the beginning of the month was 7060 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 6637 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.98% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.38%.

At the beginning of September, the domestic ethanol market continued to decline. At present, the supply of ethanol is sufficient and stable, but the delivery of goods is slow, the market price fluctuates downward, and large factories mainly place orders in the early stage.

In the middle of September, the domestic ethanol market continued to decline. Corn prices fell, cost support weakened, and actual single transactions continued to decline. The supply side is relatively stable, and the overall inventory is under pressure. Downstream Baijiu demand is in the low season, and there is no obvious positive support on the demand side.

In late September, the domestic ethanol market was still down by a narrow margin. The supply side continued to be high, and prices continued to decline in the face of limited demand.

At the end of the month, the domestic ethanol market continued to decline. The unit load of the main production enterprises is stable, the supply side continues to be high, and the ethanol market price continues to decline under the limited demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30), there were 136 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, which were concentrated in the chemical industry sector (64 kinds in total) and the agricultural and sideline sectors (16 kinds in total). The commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The top three commodities with growth were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities declined month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry sector; The top three commodities with declines were electrolytic manganese (- 57.47%), magnesium (- 46.60%), and glycine (- 45.71%). The average increase / decrease in this half year was 6.53%.

Both supply and demand are weak, and the ethanol analysts of the business community predict that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly adjusted at a low level in the short term.

In August, the domestic propane market price was relatively strong, and the Shandong market fell first and then rose, with the focus shifted upward. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 5800.75 yuan / ton on August 1 and 6003 on August 31. 25 yuan / ton, with an increase of 3.49% in the month and 20.53% compared with the same period last year.

As of August 31, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region. August 31

South China, 5500-5700 yuan / ton

North China, 5900-6000 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 5900-6100 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 5800-5950 yuan / ton

In August, the domestic propane market trend was strong. In the first half of the month, the propane Market in Shandong was reduced by a narrow margin. In the second half of the month, the price rose, and the average price at the end of the month rose to above 6000 yuan / ton. In the first half of the month, the CP was introduced in August, and both propylene and butane were reduced. Moreover, the international crude oil market trend was weak, and the price continued to decline. The cost brought some bad news to the market. In terms of demand, the traditional off-season has not passed, and the demand is still relatively weak. The market trading atmosphere is general, and the price is narrow. In the second half of the month, the propane Market in Shandong was significantly higher, and some areas were cooled down. The demand was improved compared with the previous period, and the market transaction atmosphere was improved. Moreover, the international crude oil rose sharply on the 29th, and the cost boosted the propane price to above 6000 yuan / ton.

In August 2022, Saudi Aramco announced that both propylene and butane fell. Propane was US $670 / T, down US $55 / T from the previous month; Butane is 660 US dollars / ton, down 65 US dollars / ton from last month.

At present, the overall trend of the propane Market in Shandong is relatively strong, and most of the quotations have risen above 6000 yuan / ton. In the second half of the month, the market demand improved, and most of the upstream inventory was under control. The manufacturer’s mentality was relatively firm, and the demand in the later period was still expected to improve. It is expected that the propane market may still rise in September.

In August, the decline of domestic butadiene market slowed down. At the end of the month, the quotations of major manufacturers increased, and the market atmosphere warmed up. However, the overall situation was still declining. The main reason is still the contradiction between supply and demand. The supply is on the high side, while the downstream demand is relatively low. The external market is slightly boosted, and the market in August is slower than that in July.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the month was 9356 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month (as of August 30), the domestic butadiene market price was 8232 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 12.01% in the month and a year-on-year decrease of 23.50%. In terms of the latest market price, the mainstream range of self inquiry offer of butadiene from the tank in East China is 8400-8600 yuan / ton; The mainstream transaction price of butadiene in Shandong Luzhong is 8900 yuan / ton.

At the beginning of this month, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and the market was “unable to recover” due to various negative factors. Some northeast enterprises bid for export to increase market supply. On the other hand, the continued downturn in the external market has affected the domestic market atmosphere. At the same time, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the butadiene market is difficult to “turn the tide”.

In the middle of September, the decline of domestic butadiene market slowed down. Although Sinopec and other major production enterprises lowered their factory quotations for many times in the week, the market prices in some areas rebounded narrowly due to the auction results of Luqing, and the market speculation atmosphere was strong. At the same time, the current butadiene market has dropped to a relatively low level, and the downstream replenishment sentiment is obvious. Therefore, the decline of the butadiene market has slowed down.

At the end of September, the domestic butadiene market recovered and reorganized, mainly because the low price in the early stage led to the active purchase in the downstream, which led to the market trend. It was difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, and promoted the transaction price of Shandong goods. With the rebound of the market, the price difference of the market inquiry is obvious, and the downstream mentality returns to caution. Therefore, the increase is not large.

At the end of the month, the domestic butadiene market was sorted out in a narrow range, the early maintenance units were started one after another, and the supply increased. At the same time, the external market fell significantly, which also dragged the mentality of some domestic merchants. The quotation of the manufacturer is more stable and less narrow fluctuation. However, the downstream demand still exists, and some offers in the trade market are tentatively higher.

In terms of enterprises, the 120000 T / a butadiene plant of Huajin in the North operates stably, and 112 tons of goods are exported through bidding on the source line, with the bidding base price of 7810 yuan / ton. The 140000 T / a butadiene plant of Dalian Hengli was restarted and operated stably on August 22. The listing price was increased by 300 yuan / T to 8110 yuan / T. The 64000 T / a butadiene extraction unit of Shenhua Ningxia coal is in normal operation. At present, a small amount of goods are exported, and the price is increased by 500 yuan / T to 8050 yuan / T.

On the external market: as of the closing on August 29, the external price of butadiene in Asia remained stable: FOB Korea closed at US $875-885 / T; CFR China closed at US $895-905 / T. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $1565-1575 / T; FD northwest Europe closed at 1575-1585 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, FOB Korea, 875-885 USD / ton, 0 yuan / ton

Asia, CFR China, 895-905 USD / T, 0 USD / T

Europe and America, FOB Rotterdam, US $1565-1575 / ton, US $0 / ton

Europe, FD northwest Europe, 1575-1585 euros / ton, 0 euros / ton

According to the price monitoring of the business community, 136 commodities rose in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30) in the list of commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical sector; The top three commodities with growth were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities declined month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry; The top three commodities in terms of decline were electrolytic manganese (- 57.47%), magnesium (- 46.60%) and glycine (- 45.71%). The average increase or decrease in this half year was 6.53%.

The domestic supply side is difficult to find obvious advantages, and the external market atmosphere is weak. Butadiene analysts of business society predict that the domestic butadiene market will be sluggish in the short term.

This week, the zinc price fluctuated and rose

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc price fluctuated and rose this week. As of August 29, the zinc price was 25578 yuan / ton, up 2.47% from 24962 yuan / ton on August 21 last weekend. On August 28, the zinc commodity index was 148.18, which was the same as yesterday, down 9.78% from the highest point 164.25 in the cycle (April 20, 2022), and up 105.01% from the lowest point 72.28 on November 22, 2015. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now). With the spread of domestic power rationing, the zinc price is approaching a historical high this week.

Supply and demand of limited film in Sichuan

On August 20, the relevant departments issued an emergency notice again, requiring Sichuan Province (except Panzhihua and Liangshan) to expand the scope of power supply for industrial enterprises to the people, and the power supply restriction period lasted from 0:00 on August 20 to 24:00 on August 25. After the two rounds of power rationing “expired”, the industrial power consumption was restored in succession. However, the zinc smelting industry chain enterprises, as the major users of electricity, have not been restored for a long time. The construction of die-casting zinc alloy enterprises in the lower reaches of the film industry in Zhejiang and other places was limited. The poor export orders caused a large year-on-year decline in the construction of enterprises. The overall supply and demand of the zinc market were weak, and the support for the rise of the zinc market remained.

With the decrease of temperature and rainfall in some areas, the situation of power shortage in Sichuan has been alleviated. On the 28th, the daily power generation capacity of Sichuan Hydropower Station was 460 million kwh, 9.5% higher than the lowest value in the previous period. As of 12:00 on the 28th, the general industrial and commercial power consumption in Sichuan Province has been fully restored. Except for the high load industries, the large industrial power consumption is gradually restored. After the continuous improvement of the incoming water of hydropower, most of the industrial power will be restored to normal. With the continuous support of the State Grid, the contradiction between power supply and demand in Sichuan will be basically solved by the end of August and the beginning of September. With the end of power rationing, the supply and demand of zinc market recovered to balance, and the support of zinc price rise weakened.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the continuous domestic power rationing has affected the supply and demand of zinc market. The supply and demand of domestic zinc market are both weak, and the zinc price fluctuated and rose this week. Generally speaking, with the resumption of power rationing, the support of zinc market rise is weakened, the zinc price is approaching the historical high, and the pressure of zinc price decline is increased. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate and fall in the future.