In September, the domestic ethanol market recovered slightly. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the price at the beginning of the month was 6625 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 6762 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 2.08% and a year-on-year increase of 6.50%.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic ethanol market rose by a narrow margin. The main manufacturers raised the ex factory quotation and intended to drive the market. In the short term, the domestic ethanol market is still oversupplied, and the buying remains just in demand.

In the middle of this month, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated and sorted out. After the corn ethanol price rose, it was temporarily stable, and it was difficult to see a high number of actual orders. In the short term, the main factories were operating stably, the starting load was high, the price of raw corn was slightly raised, and the trading volume was improved.

In the last ten days of this month, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, which was stable on the whole. In terms of positive factors, first, the price of raw material corn rose in a narrow range, with less price suppression and more price increases; Second, equipment maintenance and load reduction of major production enterprises increased, and the overall supply was weak. On the negative side, the demand for downstream products, whether chemical or liquor, is weak. The good news is not as good as the bad news, and the stalemate in the ethanol market is the main reason.

The ethanol analyst of the business association predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would be mainly settled by shocks.

From September 1, 2022 to September 28, 2022, the market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose. The spot market price in East China was 16550 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16700 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.91%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly K column chart of electrolytic manganese above that since March 2022, electrolytic manganese has continued to decline, and only slightly warmed up in June and August, with an increase of 0.6% in June and 0.61% in August, both of which did not exceed 1%; From the weekly chart, we can see that the electrolytic manganese market has maintained a stable and weak trend for a long time. Only at the end of August, it rose slightly, with a rise rate of only 0.61%. The electrolytic manganese market was weak as a whole, and the price of electrolytic manganese rose slightly in September.

Manganese ore: In September, the trading atmosphere in the manganese ore market was good. The manufacturer’s replenishment before the National Day holiday led to a better market confidence. High cost ores continued to arrive in Hong Kong. Small and medium-sized traders had weak cargo rights, and the price fixing atmosphere continued. As of September 28, the northern port: Australia, 44-45 yuan/ton; Semicarbonic acid in South Africa: 34.5-35.5 yuan/ton; Gabon 42-43 yuan/ton; Brazil mine 41.5-42.5 yuan/ton; High speed railway in South Africa is 31.5-32 yuan/ton. Southern port: Australian block 45.5-46 yuan/ton; Semi carbonic acid: 35.5-36 yuan/ton; Gabon: 43-44 yuan/ton; Brazil mine 42.5-43.5 yuan/ton; High speed railway in South Africa is 31.5-32 yuan/ton. The spot price of manganese ore has temporarily stabilized.

In August 2022, China imported 2400026 tons of manganese ore, a decrease of 8.48% month on month (2622511) and a year-on-year increase of 7.82% (2226000 tons in August 2021). 220203 tons of manganese ore in Australia, 501144 tons in Gabon, 991514 tons in South Africa and 114388 tons in Brazil, accounting for 9.18%, 20.88%, 41.31% and 4.77% of the total imports respectively.

From January to August 2022, the import volume of manganese ore totaled 19131536 tons, down 8.24% year on year (20848700 tons from January to August 2021).

Since the end of February, the market price of electrolytic manganese has dropped all the way from 42075 yuan/ton to 16300 yuan/ton on August 10, a cumulative decline of 61.26%. At the end of August, the price of electrolytic manganese began to rebound slightly, rising from 16300 yuan/ton to 16700 yuan/ton at the end of September, a cumulative increase of 400 yuan/ton. The domestic alliance will implement the measures of limiting production from August to December. After the alliance meeting, the price starts to rise slightly. The enterprises have a strong price mentality, and the market has a certain boost. After entering September, the market has digested the impact of the alliance’s limiting production, and the price has entered a continuous consolidation period. Near the end of the month, Ningxia, the main production area, was affected by the traffic, and the external transportation was limited, which had a certain impact on the market supply. In terms of downstream demand, the market situation has been volatile recently, and procurement on demand has been maintained, and long-term agreements have been mainly implemented. There is less bulk cargo. As there is a certain demand for goods in the market near holidays, the market price has risen slightly at the end of the month. The recent introduction of steel bidding is in a reasonable range, and most steel mills gradually resume purchasing electrolytic manganese, which has boosted the market mentality. However, due to the downstream demand, the market continues to be weak. It is expected that the future price will remain stable and weak, with a strong supply and demand game mentality.

Relevant data:

In August 2022, China’s imports of electrolytic manganese will be 1000.01 tons, a month on month decrease of 2500.21 tons and a month on month decrease of 71.43%; In August 2022, the export volume of China’s electrolytic manganese was 19820.93 tons, a month on month decrease of 9389.71 tons and a month on month decrease of 32.14%.

In September 2022, the domestic market price of 1 # antimony ingot will remain at 79500 yuan/ton, and the price will remain stable this month. The average market price in East China will be 80000 yuan/ton on August 27 and 79500 yuan/ton on September 27, down 0.62% from the same period last month.

On September 26, the antimony commodity index was 110.67, unchanged from yesterday, 5.08% lower than the peak of 116.59 (2022-04-17) in the cycle, and 135.57% higher than the low of 46.98 on December 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. From the above figure, we can see the recent upward trend of the antimony ingot market around the Spring Festival. After entering the downward channel in April, the decline slowed down. The market picked up again in June, continued to decline slightly in July, fell slightly in August, and remained stable in September.

In September, the market price of antimony ingots continued to maintain a temporary stability. Since the market fell below 80000 yuan in late August, it has been stable at 79500 yuan/ton, and it has remained at this price for four consecutive weeks as of the press release. At the end of September, as the price of the external market first eased and fell by 100 dollars/ton, it is feared that the domestic price will fall slightly in the near future. At present, the overall performance of the antimony industry chain is weak, with limited changes in fundamentals this month, and the pattern of weak supply and demand is still maintained. At present, the supply is still tight, but the downstream has not improved, and the tight supply cannot boost the price of antimony ingots. At the end of the month, the market has seen some low-cost sources of antimony oxide from downstream, and downstream manufacturers have a certain demand for funds, so the upward transmission, antimony ingot prices, under the double negative influence of the external market and downstream, should have a small callback in the future. Near the long holiday, the market has a certain demand for goods preparation, but the overall purchase intention remains on demand. The market has not emerged a large number of goods preparation plans. The business community expects that the overall performance of the antimony ingot market is still weak in the future when there is no obvious improvement in the downstream market.

The price of strategic small metal antimony in Europe (unit: USD/t)

Variety., September 1., September 27., up and down

European small metal antimony., 13000., 12900., – 100

In September, the European strategic small metal antimony market declined slightly. For most of September, the price remained temporarily stable, and the price fell slightly near the end of the month. At present, the overall market turnover is low, and the market atmosphere is cold.

Price trend of antimony oxide (unit: yuan/ton)

Variety, August 27, September 27, up and down

99.5% antimony trioxide, 68500., 68000., – 500

99.8% antimony trioxide, 70500., 70000., – 500

The antimony oxide market maintained a temporary stable operation for the main time of this month, and prices declined slightly near the end of the month. At present, the downstream demand is limited, the market sales are average, and the export performance is average. The external price has declined slightly this month, driving the domestic market price atmosphere to be weak. At present, the downstream antimony oxide manufacturers are cautious in purchasing, mainly on demand.

This week, the spot tin market price (9.16-9.23) rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 183610 yuan/ton last weekend and 187860 yuan/ton this weekend, up 2.31%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure that the tin price will continue to weaken after April 2022, with only partial weekly price increases, and the increase is relatively low. The overall trend is mainly downward.

Futures market situation this week

Variety., closing price., compared with the same period of last week., inventory volume (ton)., compared with last week’s inventory change (ton)

Shanghai Tin, 183100 yuan/ton,+6850 yuan/ton, 1891., – 101

London tin, 20240 dollars/ton, – 890 dollars/ton, 5160.,+195

In terms of futures market, the overall trend of Lunxi this week was high and volatile, falling 0.4%. Shanghai and Wuxi rose by nearly 4% this week in shock. On the macro level, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates at 75 points this week. The post hawk speech intensified the expectation of future interest rate hikes. Many countries followed the US Federal Reserve’s announcement of interest rate hikes. The US dollar hit new highs for nearly 20 years for many times in a row, and prices fell back on Friday due to the impact of interest rate hikes. Shanghai Tin was supported by low inventory, and prices rose mainly this week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the previous period declined by 101 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 195 tons.

The main range of the spot market this week is 183000-190000 yuan/ton, and the price is about 8000 yuan/ton higher than last week, a small increase. The spot market rose and fell this week. The market is still purchasing on demand, and the overall delivery is average. There is no obvious change in the supply and demand, which is still a pattern of weak supply and demand. In terms of supply, the supply of imported goods has increased significantly, the quotation of imported goods in the market has increased, and the domestic tin ingot supply is relatively loose as a whole. The overall performance of downstream demand is not outstanding, and there is a certain willingness to prepare goods before the festival. Downstream procurement is maintained on demand. As the overall inventory of tin is relatively low, it is obviously subject to macro disturbance. The business community expects that the future tin price will still be subject to macro influence, mainly maintaining a wide range of shocks.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 15 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 38th week of 2022 (9.19-9.23), including 2 kinds of commodities that rose more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the number of monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were praseodymium oxide (6.82%), neodymium oxide (5.22%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (3.94%). There were four kinds of commodities that declined month on month, with copper (-0.72%), nickel (-0.58%) and aluminum (-0.57%) in the top three. The average rise or fall this week was 1.59%.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda rose strongly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was about 1062 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average market price in Shandong was 1174 yuan/ton. The price rose 10.55%, 6.97% higher than the same period last year. On September 22, the caustic soda commodity index was 164.60, up 6.33 points from yesterday, down 38.00% from the peak of 265.47 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 152.80% from the lowest point of 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data of the business community, the domestic caustic soda price rose this week. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 1080-1250 yuan/ton. The factory quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda mainstream in Hebei is about 1100-1200 yuan/ton. Affected by the overhaul of major enterprises, 32% of liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose strongly. And near the National Day holiday, downstream enterprises stock up, and the transaction atmosphere is better than in the early days. In terms of export, export orders increased, which was good for caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 37th week of 2022 (9.12-9.16), there was a total of 1 rising commodity, 3 falling commodity, and 1 zero rising commodity. The main commodities that rose were: light soda ash (0.38%); The main commodities falling were calcium carbide (-2.25%), PVC (-0.51%) and caustic soda (-0.38%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.55%.

Analysts from the business community believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda is running well, and the downstream aluminum oxide procurement demand is better than in the early period, rising overall, and the holiday is approaching, so we can stock up before the festival. It is comprehensively estimated that there is still room for caustic soda to rise next week, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of September 16, the price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, was 152000 yuan/ton, the price of lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged, operated steadily, and the price fluctuation range was not large. You Gang mainly needed to purchase, the purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market was running smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. The main reason was that the contract customers ordered goods, and the number of new orders was limited, The overall market negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the current mainstream price range is 152000-155000 yuan/ton.

The price of lithium iron phosphate, an excellent power product, is 152000 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of lithium iron phosphate is not obvious, and it runs smoothly. The main price fluctuation range is not large. You Gang needs to purchase mainly. The purchasing atmosphere is general. The overall market runs smoothly. At present, the manufacturer’s supply is still tight, and the supply side is obviously insufficient. The main problem is that contract customers arrange orders for shipment. The number of new orders is limited, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is fair, At present, the mainstream price range is 151000-155000 yuan/ton.

As of this week, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate in the upstream continued to rise. On September 15, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 494000 yuan/ton, which was 0.82% higher than the average price at the beginning of the week (on September 11, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 490000 yuan/ton). On September 15, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 510000 yuan/ton, up 1.19% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on September 11, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 504000 yuan/ton).

Chemical commodity index: On September 15, the chemical index was 970 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 30.71% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 62.21% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

Analysts of LiFePO4 from the business community believe that LiFePO4 will run smoothly in the short term,

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, on September 9 and 16, the domestic ethanol market was in shock. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic ethanol producers remained at 6687 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the price rose to 6700 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose 0.19%, fell 0.56% month on month, and rose 3.28% year on year.

The domestic ethanol market was in shock and consolidation. After the corn ethanol price rose, it was temporarily stable, and it was difficult to see a high number of actual orders. In the short term, the main factories were operating stably, and the starting load was on the high side. The price of raw corn was slightly boosted, and the trading volume was improved.

In terms of raw materials and costs, domestic corn prices fluctuated, with low purchase prices as the main transaction price, while the purchase price in the northeast of the main production area declined in the short term.

From the perspective of downstream products, the demand for Baijiu in the downstream has been boosted slowly, and ethyl acetate in the chemical industry has started at a low level, and the procurement has maintained a just demand.

The raw material corn was boosted in the short term, the demand side of the Baijiu industry recovered only a little, and the start-up of the chemical end acetate direction boosted only a little, so the demand recovery was hard to see in the short term. The ethanol analysts of the business association predicted that the short-term domestic ethanol market would be mainly settled by shocks.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, the mainstream styrene price in Shandong fell in shock this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9510.00 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 9700.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00%. The price rose 0.44% year on year.

styrene

The styrene market price rose first and then fell this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has been mainly rising, and this week the price has recovered after rising. The main reason is that the focus of the pure benzene market continues to move downward, the ethylene market is in shock and consolidation, and the support for the styrene market is limited. Domestic styrene devices have returned in succession. The styrene inventory is rising, and the rising trend is weak. It is expected that the spot price of styrene will fall in shock in the later period.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil fell sharply and cost support was weak. This week, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly after rising. On September 9, the price of pure benzene was 7700-7850 yuan/ton (the average price was 7767 yuan/ton). On Friday (September 16), the price of pure benzene was 7750-7950 yuan/ton (the average price was 7817 yuan/ton). The average price was 0.64% higher than last week and 10.04% lower than the same period last year. This week, the port inventory of pure benzene in East China increased by 5000 tons to 64600 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell at different levels this week. At present, the PS (polystyrene) market trend is weak, the trading atmosphere is weak, the shipping rhythm of merchants is slowing down, and the focus of negotiation is weakening slightly. Quotation reference of mainstream brands: 10200 yuan/ton for Dushanzi 500; CITIC 525 is out of stock, Saibaolong 525 is reported as 10050 yuan/ton, Shanghai SECCO 123P is reported as 10350-10450 yuan/ton, Zhenjiang Qimei PG33 is reported as 11100 yuan/ton, Huajin 825 is reported as 10650-10700 yuan/ton; Ningbo Taihua 535N quoted 11000 yuan/ton, and the above prices are all tax inclusive prices, which are subject to firm negotiation.

The average price of EPS ordinary materials this week is 11450 yuan/ton. The cost support is good, and the focus of market negotiation is higher. The South China market was boosted by futures and the rising trend of the mainstream East China market. The holders of goods rose along the trend, with low enthusiasm for buying orders. The EPS market quotation was weak. The manufacturers maintained stable prices for shipment, and the downstream mainly relied on demand.

The domestic ABS market has risen this week, and the spot prices of various brands have increased. As of September 15, the average price of the mainstream offer of generic ABS was about 12400 yuan/ton, up or down by+5.98% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month. In the near future, the trend of three upstream materials at the ABS cost end is strong, and the ABS cost support is good. In terms of industry load, the expected increase in the commencement of some ABS production lines in the early stage will be fulfilled, and the on-site supply will continue to be abundant, and the supply side will not reduce its pressure on the market. In terms of demand, although downstream enterprises mainly digested the pre festival inventory after the festival, the midstream increased in taking goods, the market atmosphere remained buoyant, and the downstream demand for goods preparation for the National Day holiday was approaching, gathering enterprises’ confidence was strong.

In the near future, the demand for styrene downstream is relatively good overall, but the styrene output is also increasing steadily, with limited upward momentum. On the whole, if the raw materials fall next week, the styrene market will follow suit.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese was temporarily stable this week (September 9 to September 16). The spot market price in East China was 16600 yuan/ton last weekend and 16600 yuan/ton this weekend, which was flat.

Manganese ore: After falling all the way in the previous period, the manganese ore market is running well this week, and the price has been raised under the condition that the silicon manganese alloy market is running well, the port’s available goods supply is reduced, and the factory’s inquiry and procurement atmosphere has improved significantly. Among them, the manganese ore block in Tianjin Port is reported as 45-45.5 yuan/ton, the semi carbonic acid is 34.5-35 yuan/ton, the Gabonese block is 42-42.5 yuan/ton, and the Gabonese seed is 39.5-40 yuan/ton; Qinzhou Port mainstream Australia reported 45-46 yuan/ton, semi carbonic acid 34.5-35.5 yuan/ton, Gabon 42-42.5 yuan/ton, and the cumulative adjustment range within the week was about 1 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly K column chart of electrolytic manganese above that electrolytic manganese has continued to decline since March 2022, and the price has continued to stabilize temporarily after a slight rise at the end of August.

The market price of electrolytic manganese is temporarily stable this week. The quotations of major domestic manufacturers are above 16000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream market price is still around 15300 yuan/ton. The implementation of production restriction and reduction in the domestic alliance from August to December has led to a decline in recent output and a slight tension in the overall market supply. In terms of downstream demand, the market continues to fluctuate slightly in the near future, and the downstream receiving intention is still low. Major manufacturers in major domestic production areas maintain long-term orders, and the market circulation supply is limited. Recently, the situation of steel bidding has recovered slightly, and some steel plants that have suspended steel bidding have started to resume procurement, which has some support for the market. However, due to downstream demand, it is expected that the future market price will remain stable, weak and difficult to move up.

Manganese and silicon: When the price of the new round of silicon manganese alloy bidding of Hegang Group was finalized before the festival and the market direction was clear, the market was resumed after the festival. All major steel mills and traders successively carried out the procurement of silicon manganese alloy in September (some have begun to stock up silicon manganese alloy in October). The overall atmosphere of inquiry and procurement was obviously active. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia (specification: FeMN68Si18) was about 7050-7150 yuan/ton on September 16.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 16, 2022, the reference of the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market was 9600 yuan/ton. Compared with the price on September 11 (the reference price of butanone was 9266 yuan/ton), the average price increased by 333 yuan/ton, or 3.60%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the Mid Autumn Festival, the domestic butanone market is running upward as a whole. After the festival, the operating rate of butanone in the plant was low, the equipment was shut down for maintenance, and the spot supply in the plant was tight. The supply side gave some support to the butanone market. Some factories steadily raised the price of butanone after the festival by 200-300 yuan/ton. The industry was reluctant to sell, and the overall focus of the butanone market steadily moved up. As of September 16, the domestic butanone market price was near 9500-9800 yuan/ton, with an increase of more than 3% after the festival. At present, the trading atmosphere in the butanone field is fair, and the downstream demand mainly continues to be rigid demand.

On the upstream side, after the Mid Autumn Festival, the domestic liquefied gas market was dominated by consolidation, and the Shandong civil gas market was lack of momentum to continue to rise, with a narrow price decline. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of liquefied gas in the civil Shandong market was 5930.00 yuan/ton on September 8 and 5916.00 yuan/ton on September 15, with a drop of 0.24% in the week.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the downstream demand side of butanone is mainly based on demand procurement, which is about to usher in the National Day holiday. With the support of appropriate replenishment and stock up in the downstream, the butanone data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market is mainly stable and operating at a moderate to strong level, and more attention should be paid to the information changes on the supply and demand side.