According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 8th to 12th, the average price of BDO in China remained at 9042 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 19.87%. The domestic BDO market is running weakly, with contract orders trading and light spot negotiations. Recently, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has decreased, the supply of spot goods in the market has decreased, and the supply side’s stable market mentality continues. But the actual demand downstream is average, and the export price of new production capacity is relatively low. The overall market situation is deadlocked due to the game between supply and demand.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment: Although Inner Mongolia Junzheng’s new production capacity is running at a negative level, the Henan He Coal plant stopped for maintenance on July 10th. Coupled with the fact that the previous maintenance equipment has not yet been restored, the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry has dropped to below 60%. In the short term, there are certain positive factors on the supply side, and the supplier’s market stability mentality is the main focus. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: Due to losses, the operating rate of calcium carbide production enterprises continues to decline. Downstream enterprises in some regions have completed maintenance, and there is an expectation of increased demand. In the short term, there may be slight regional differences in the domestic calcium carbide market. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is experiencing weak consolidation. As of 10:00 am on July 12th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2555 yuan/ton. The BDO cost side is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, the main terminal product spandex is forced to offer discounts and promotions due to sales and high inventory pressure, resulting in a decline in market conditions and increased losses. There is a strong bargaining sentiment towards the raw material PTMEG. The load of other downstream industries is relatively low, and there is no significant improvement in raw material consumption. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, some BDO units will restart and the supply of goods will increase, but the overall load will still be below 60%, and the supplier’s market stability mentality will continue. The main terminal product spandex market is relatively low, and other downstream companies also urgently need to follow suit. The supply-demand game continues, and BDO analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic BDO market will have limited fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride slightly declined in early May, with prices falling within 50 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. As of the end of this week, potassium chloride was quoted at 2516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%.

2、 Market analysis

In the first half of the year, the domestic potassium chloride market continued its previous consolidation trend, with little fluctuation. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the low arrival volume from April to May, the domestic market has shown a basic balance between supply and demand, and there has been no surplus situation in the market. The price still remains rigid and strong. However, downstream factories generally have a resistance towards high prices, and the peak season for spring farming procurement is gradually coming to an end. Most enterprises have already replenished their inventory in the early stage, and the demand for compound fertilizer manufacturers is decreasing.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the performance of the downstream potassium fertilizer market is average, with price fluctuations varying and not significant. In the first half of the month, the market price of potassium carbonate slightly increased, rising from 6950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7050 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.4%. The potassium nitrate market has slightly declined, with a decrease of 0.25%. The price has dropped from 4962 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4950 yuan/ton at the end of this week. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride is sluggish, which may pose a constraint on potassium chloride in the later stage.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may continue to be weak. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has temporarily remained sluggish, but with the weakening of agricultural demand in Northeast China and the weakening of potassium fertilizer demand, potassium chloride procurement may show a downward trend, and compound fertilizer factories mainly produce nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore, the price of potassium chloride may fall weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the isobutene market has shown a downward trend since May, with the benchmark price of isobutene at 12225 yuan/ton in early May. As of May 28th, the standard price of isobutene was 12025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. A decrease of 1.64%. In mid to early May, the price of isobutene remained stable, and after May 14th, the price of isobutene began to decline continuously. The price trend of MTBE on the cost side fluctuates slightly, but overall shows a fluctuating downward trend.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

On May 23rd, international crude oil futures continued to decline. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.87 per barrel, a decrease of $0.70 or 0.9%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.36 per barrel, a decrease of $0.54 or 0.7%. As of now, crude oil has been falling for four consecutive trading days, with WTI crude oil falling to a nearly three-month low. The main reason is that the high interest rate environment in the United States has brought pressure to demand, and in addition, US inventory data is bearish and geopolitical risk premiums are decreasing.

The domestic MTBE market is fluctuating and falling. From May 1st to 31st, the price of MTBE dropped from 7212 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 5.55% during the cycle, with a maximum amplitude of 8.02% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.47%. This month, many manufacturers are exporting normally, but the overall supply of spot goods is still relatively high. The overall demand for gasoline is relatively flat. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, the domestic MTBE market is mainly weak and consolidating.

3、 Future Market Forecast

On the cost side, the overall decline in international oil prices in May combined with the sluggish trend of the MTBE market has constrained the price trend due to changes in expectations. The isobutene market is showing a downward trend. Partial maintenance and resumption of work for isobutene have resulted in a relaxed supply of domestic goods. Downstream demand lacks favorable incentives, and retail shipments are average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the domestic isobutene market may continue to be weak in the short term.

Zinc prices increased significantly in May

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 31, the zinc price was 24634 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.37% from the zinc price of 23378 yuan/ton on May 1; The zinc price has increased by 14.11% compared to 21588 yuan/ton on January 1st; The zinc price has increased by 21.54% compared to the lowest point of the year on February 19th, 20268 yuan/ton. In May, zinc prices reached a new high in 2024 and were at the highest level within a year. The detection position in May was at the highest level within a year, rising from the median to the mid high level within two years, reaching the median level within three years, and reaching the mid high level at the end of the month. May continued to be on the alert for over inflation within a year. The warning of excessive increase in zinc prices continues, increasing the risk of a decline in zinc prices, and the risk of a sharp drop in zinc prices in the future continues to intensify.

Domestic zinc ingot inventory slightly decreased in May

From the domestic zinc ingot inventory statistics chart for 2024, it can be seen that the zinc ingot inventory has significantly increased, and the zinc market has sufficient supply in 2024; In May, zinc ingot inventory slightly decreased, and the domestic zinc market supply was tight. The support of rising zinc prices remains.

In April 2024, China’s zinc production was 586000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%; The cumulative production from January to April was 2.473 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. The production of zinc in the market has decreased, and the domestic supply of zinc has tightened.

Growth in demand for zinc in the market

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s air conditioning production in April 2024 was 30.331 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%; The cumulative production from January to April was 99.14 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%. In April, the national refrigerator production was 9.336 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%; The cumulative production from January to April was 32.859 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. In April, the national production of washing machines reached 9.443 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; The cumulative production from January to April was 35.462 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. In April, the national production of color televisions was 17.316 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%; The cumulative production from January to April was 60.631 million units, which remained unchanged year-on-year. The production of major domestic household appliances has increased significantly, leading to an increase in demand for zinc in the market.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, in terms of supply, the international market’s zinc ingot inventory is low, and the domestic zinc market inventory has slightly decreased. In addition, the domestic zinc market production has slightly decreased, and the supply of zinc in the market is tight, providing significant support for the rise in zinc prices; In terms of demand, the production of major household appliances has increased year-on-year, coupled with policy incentives to revive the real estate market, the domestic zinc market is expected to see a rebound in demand, and the pressure on zinc prices to rise has increased. Weak supply and strong demand are expected to lead to a high consolidation of zinc prices in the future.

In May, the domestic dimethyl ether market experienced a stepwise decline. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3965 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 3915 yuan/ton on May 30th. The monthly decline was 1.26%, a decrease of 5.09% compared to the same period last year.

As of May 30th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 4100 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3800 yuan/ton

In May, the domestic dimethyl ether market was overall cost driven, with prices falling overall. At the beginning of the month, due to the continuous increase in raw material methanol, dimethyl ether enterprises were forced to keep up with the increase. Downstream demand was cold, resistance was strengthened, and the cost pressure on enterprises increased. Due to demand constraints, the increase was weak. Finally, the increase in raw material prices gave up, reducing the cost pressure on dimethyl ether enterprises, increasing production enthusiasm, and lowering the price of dimethyl ether in a stepped manner under pressure.

In May, the raw material methanol market surged and fell, with an average price of 2651 yuan/ton on May 1st and 2782 yuan/ton on May 30th, a monthly increase of 4.92%, supporting methanol from strong to weak.

Overall, the profit margin of dimethyl ether has been released, and market purchases and sales have returned to calm. There is not much pressure on on-site inventory, and it is expected that dimethyl ether will maintain stable operation in the short term.

The domestic acetonitrile market price fluctuated and declined this month. As of May 29th, the benchmark price of acetonitrile for Shengyishe was 9880.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.98% compared to the beginning of this month (10080.00 yuan/ton).

Market analysis:

This month, the overall supply of acetonitrile in the market has been stable and sufficient, with an increase in overall inventory and a bearish outlook on the supply side. However, downstream demand continues to be weak, and buyers have followed suit around rigid demand. Coupled with mainstream manufacturers lowering their bidding prices, the market mentality is not good, and the price center of the acetonitrile market continues to decline.

Supply side:

This month, the spot market price of acrylonitrile has experienced a narrow decline. As of May 29th, the benchmark price of acrylonitrile for Shengyishe was 9850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -8.80% compared to the beginning of this month (10800.00 yuan/ton). The news is currently unclear, and there is still uncertainty in supply changes. In the short term, manufacturer inventories are not high, and there is still an intention to raise prices. Considering that the settlement expectation for this month is still high, the spot market is also cautious and stable in operation. There are plans to restart or increase losses in both the north and south, and the overall news is bearish. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will remain weak and volatile in the near future.

On the demand side:

Pesticides are the main downstream industry of acetonitrile, with slight fluctuations in the pesticide raw material market. The inquiry volume has increased this month, and downstream stocking is mainly based on demand, but product trading performance is average. The supply and demand of the pesticide market are weakening, with cost support, and pesticide prices may still fluctuate at the bottom in the second half of the year.

Overall:

The domestic market price of acetonitrile is expected to continue to decline in the near future. On the one hand, with the restart of by-product and synthesis equipment, the market supply will further increase; On the other hand, the overall downstream demand remains weak, especially with no favorable factors in the pesticide market. In this context, acetonitrile manufacturers are facing increasing sales pressure and have to promote sales by lowering prices. It is predicted that the market price of acetonitrile may fall below 9800 yuan/ton next week and may continue to decline to a lower level.

Recently, the price of isooctyl acrylate in China has been steadily increasing. As of May 28th, the benchmark price of isooctyl acrylate in Shengyishe was 12800.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.39% compared to the beginning of this month (12625.00 yuan/ton). Currently, there is no pressure on supply, and there may still be room for price increases supported by costs. It is expected that the focus of the domestic market for isooctyl acrylate will be on the rise in the near future.

In terms of cost:

Recently, the market price of isooctanol has slightly increased. As of May 28th, the benchmark price of isooctanol in Shengyishe was 9880.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.28% compared to the beginning of this month (9660.00 yuan/ton). Due to maintenance plans for some plasticizer devices in May, downstream plasticizer users are purchasing in moderation. The mainstream factories of isooctanol are arranging inventory shipments, and it is expected that the isooctanol market will consolidate and operate in June.

Recently, the price of acrylic acid in the market has remained stable. As of May 28th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyishe was 6925.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.47% compared to the beginning of this month (6825.00 yuan/ton). The cost support has been strengthened, the market supply has decreased, and the sentiment of price support has increased. Factories and holders have pushed up their prices, and downstream users have increased their enthusiasm for inquiries. As a result, they need to purchase and replenish goods in a timely manner.

In terms of supply and demand:

At present, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic isooctyl acrylate enterprises remains low, the on-site spot supply has decreased, and the pressure on enterprise shipments is relatively small; From a demand perspective, there has been an increase in downstream terminal demand, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

Overall

At present, the rise in cost is the main factor supporting the domestic market price of isooctyl acrylate. The current increase in raw material prices and demand has provided favorable support for the domestic isooctyl acrylate market. Analysts from Business Society predict that with the high price of isooctyl acrylate, downstream consumers may have a resistance mentality, and the subsequent rise of isooctyl acrylate may be difficult to maintain.

According to the market analysis system of Business Society, the market for n-butanal rose in May. As of May 27th, the price of n-butanal was 7986 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93% compared to the beginning of the month at 7912 yuan/ton.

Upstream end: Propylene upstream of butyraldehyde fluctuated within the month, with the market opening high and closing low. At the beginning of the month, continuing the upward trend of the previous month, the price of propylene slightly increased, and the price of n-butanal also rose accordingly. Subsequently, due to the relatively high price of propylene, downstream market entry enthusiasm decreased, and enterprises had difficulty selling goods, leading to a decrease in propylene prices. On the 22nd and 23rd, the downstream receiving capacity further weakened, and the price of propylene fell significantly, with a two-day drop of 200 yuan/ton.

Downstream end:

In early May, the overall supply inventory of downstream n-butanol factories was low, and the pressure on the supply side of n-butanol factories was relatively small. The supply side supported the gradual increase of n-butanol market prices. In the latter half of the year, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market in Shandong region has weakened, and the downstream demand for n-butanol is average, resulting in an overall lack of selling compared to the previous period. The pace of shipments from the main factories of n-butanol has slowed down, and the overall market price has slightly adjusted downwards, with an adjustment of around 100 yuan/ton. Overall, the n-butanol market showed an upward trend within the month, rising by 3.29%.

At the beginning of the month, the price of downstream trimethylolpropane of n-butanal experienced a wave of increase. However, after a period of market adjustment, the price has gradually stabilized, and the demand for trimethylolpropane in downstream industries continues to remain strong. Some trimethylolpropane manufacturers are still scheduling shipments, and it is expected that the market for trimethylolpropane will remain stable and strong in the short term.

Business Society’s butyraldehyde data analyst believes that the growth in downstream demand provides positive support for butyraldehyde, and it is expected that butyraldehyde will fluctuate upwards in the short term. Specific attention still needs to be paid to the upstream and downstream situation.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market stabilized this week (2.20-24), with no increase or decrease. The average market price remained stable at 107.5 yuan/ton, and prices fell by 51% year-on-year over the weekend.

Insufficient upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, there has been no significant change in the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices this week, and supply and demand have maintained a reasonable balance. Firstly, the manufacturers are operating normally, and after reducing prices and clearing inventory in the early stage, the phenomenon of some enterprises accumulating inventory has been alleviated. The manufacturer maintains stable equipment and is more proactive in shipping goods.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has been operating steadily recently, and cost support has further weakened. The downstream market for polyaluminum chloride has been declining steadily. This week, prices will mainly stabilize. The fluctuation range is 0, during the weekend, the market price is 1781 yuan/ton. Polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are gradually resuming production, and downstream procurement willingness is average.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society hydrochloric acid analysts believe that towards the end of the month, the market price of hydrochloric acid has stopped falling and stabilized. Overall, prices may maintain a range adjustment in the later stage, mainly due to insufficient cost support and weak supply-demand balance. It is expected that there will still be little room for price fluctuations in early June.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the toluene market has recently seen a narrow consolidation from May 13th to May 22nd. On May 22nd, the benchmark price of toluene was 7500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.27% from 7480 yuan/ton on May 13th.

International crude oil weak shock, toluene cost weak support

Recently (5.13-5.22), the international crude oil price range has fluctuated, providing weak support for the cost of toluene. As of May 22nd, WTI07 contract settlement is 77.57 US dollars per barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $81.90 per barrel. The price of toluene in Asia has slightly rebounded, providing some support for the domestic market. As of May 13th and June, the CFR China toluene price was between 922-924 US dollars per ton.

Starting production of xylene and increasing toluene demand with weak support

Due to maintenance of some devices, the domestic PX production has slightly decreased, and as of May 21st, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 75%. It is understood that Weilian Chemical has recently shut down 2 million tons of PX for maintenance, with a planned maintenance period of around 40 days. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the domestic PX market. As of May 21, the closing price in the Asian region is 1002-1004 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1027-1029 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending market, weak support for toluene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of May 16th, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 690%.

The continued decline in port inventory has eased the pressure on the toluene market to some extent

The domestic toluene port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but still remains at a high level. As of May 16th, the toluene inventory in East China was 53000 tons, and the toluene inventory in South China was 8500 tons.

There are still plans for equipment maintenance in the later stage, and it is expected that the supply of toluene will decrease

The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity. It is planned to restart in late May; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the toluene market.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, the international crude oil market is currently experiencing weak fluctuations, and there is a downward risk in the cost of toluene; Secondly, the downstream demand for oil adjustment was lower than expected, and the demand for disproportionation reaction also slightly decreased; The maintenance plan for the toluene unit in the later stage will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply surface. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market may experience a weak trend in the later stage and slightly rise after consolidation.