Commodity index: According to the monitoring of the business community, the natural rubber commodity index on October 15 was 36.01, unchanged from yesterday, down 63.99% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-01) in the cycle, and up 32.00% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Figure 2: Natural rubber mainstream price trend since October 2022

Commodity market: According to the monitoring of the business community, the spot market of domestic natural rubber (Standard 1) in the East China market in the first half of October showed a weak downward trend. Although it occasionally rebounded slightly, it generally weakened; Among them, since the trading day after the National Day, the East China market reported 12340 yuan/ton on October 10 and 12142 yuan/ton on October 15, down 1.6%.

Figure 3: Weekly K Histogram of Natural Rubber Market in 2022

Industry: According to the monitoring of the business community, the supply side: the supply of natural rubber continued to be strong in October, and the natural rubber of the main producing countries continued to be in high volume. The September report released by ANRPC around October 8 predicted that the global natural rubber output in September was expected to increase by 3.7% to 1.38 million tons, an increase of 5.1% over the previous month; In 2022, the global gum output will increase by 2.3% to 14376000 tons, including 0.9% in Thailand, 2.9% in Indonesia, 1.8% in China, 12.3% in India, 1.3% in Vietnam and 14.8% in Malaysia. The price trend of natural rubber has weakened. Although the price of raw materials in Thailand has risen slightly due to the weather, it is not sustainable. The purchase price of Hainan made full emulsion glue of domestic rubber has also dropped by about 300 yuan/ton and remained below 10000 yuan/ton. Demand side: First of all, in terms of the operating rate of tire enterprises, the weak procurement of downstream enterprises before the festival improved after the festival, and the operating data of tire enterprises picked up slightly. The data showed that the operating load of domestic tire enterprises was 41.67% in the week from September 30 to October 6, and the operating load of domestic tire enterprises was 64.69%, up 23.02 percentage points month on week and 10.13 percentage points year on year. Secondly, in terms of tire production, China’s total production of all steel tires in September 2022 was 10.891 million, up 12.54% year on year and down 1.44% month on month. From January to September 2022, China’s total output of all steel tires was 91.5325 million, a year-on-year decrease of 7.67%. In September 2022, China’s total production of semi steel tires was 41.8634 million, up 13.04% year on year and down 0.14% month on month. From January to September 2022, China’s cumulative production of semi steel tires was 363.0439 million, down 0.63% year on year. The cumulative production of all steel tires and semi steel tires was lower than that of last year. In general, the output and import volume of natural rubber continued to increase, the downstream demand was weak to the price of rubber was weak, and the mixed rubber was not enough to keep up with the growth; The market reflects that it is difficult to do business in natural rubber this year, so far, it has not presented the previous “golden nine silver ten” peak season, and the market has weakened recently.

Figure 4: Trend Chart of International Crude Oil Mainstream Prices in Recent March 2022

Macro: On October 12, international crude oil futures closed down. As of Wednesday of the week, oil prices had fallen for three consecutive days; On the 13th, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, which boosted risky assets such as crude oil. International crude oil futures rebounded. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 89.11 dollars/barrel, up 1.84 dollars or 2.11%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 94.57 dollars/barrel, up 2.12 dollars or 2.29%. With regard to the future market, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that the diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Recent hot spots:

1. In September 2022, China’s heavy truck market will sell about 52000 vehicles (invoicing caliber), up 13% month on month and 12% lower than 59200 vehicles in the same period last year. 52000 units are the lowest sales volume in September since 2016, and September this year is also the 17th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year. Downstream demand is sluggish and inventory is high, and heavy truck sales are lower than expected.

2. According to the data released by the China Automobile Association recently, auto production and sales continued to grow rapidly in September, highlighting the nature of the traditional sales peak season. In the same month, the production and sales of 2.672 million and 2.61 million vehicles respectively increased by 11.5% and 9.5% month on month, 28.1% and 25.7% year on year. The month on month growth turned from negative to positive, and the year-on-year growth rate was slightly lower than that of last month. From January to September, the production and sales of automobiles reached 19.632 million and 19.47 million respectively, up 7.4% and 4.4% year on year, 2.6 percentage points and 2.7 percentage points higher than that from January to August.

Figure 5: Comparison Chart of Annual Spot Market Trend of Natural Rubber from 2020 to 2022

Future forecast: the international crude oil price fell, the global economic outlook was weak, the heavy truck market demand was sluggish and the sales volume was lower than expected. Under the influence of the industrial chain, its demand for tire enterprises was weak, and the market trend of natural rubber as its raw material continued to be sluggish, and was weaker than the trend of natural rubber in 2021 and 2020. According to recent news, Malaysia has indicated that it will cooperate with Thailand and Indonesia in various aspects to stabilize the price, including jointly setting the minimum rubber price.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market rose sharply this week. The price of sulfuric acid rose from 346.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 406.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 17.34%, a year-on-year drop of 53.60%. On October 16, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 63.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.40% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 100.48% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market rose slightly, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers rose sharply this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose slightly. The sulfur price rose from 1550.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 1560.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.65%. Compared with the same period of last year, it fell by 23.40% year on year. The upstream market fluctuated narrowly, with good cost support. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising from 10285.71 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10300.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.14%, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.59% compared with the same period last year. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream fell slightly. The market price fell from 16266.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 16016.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 1.54%. Compared with the same period of last year, it fell 23.55% year on year. The downstream market rose and fell with each other, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the middle and late October, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream sulfur market has experienced a narrow range of shocks at a high level recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. The downstream market of hydrofluoric acid and ammonium sulfate rose slightly, while the titanium dioxide market fell slightly. Downstream customers became more active in purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price will rise mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 6533.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6266.67 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 4.08%. On October 16, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 31.81, unchanged from yesterday, 69.87% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and 5.61% higher than the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: Period refers to 2021-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market of isobutyraldehyde upstream raw material market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7680.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7620.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 0.78%. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, the price of isobutyraldehyde was negatively affected. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol was adjusted at a low level, with a price of 10100.00 yuan/ton. The market of neopentyl glycol was consolidated at a low level, and the downstream demand was general, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future market forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late October may fall slightly. The upstream propylene market declined slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream neopentyl glycol market has a downward trend, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the short-term isobutyraldehyde market may be subject to slight shock and decline under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 14, the average price of domestic industrial grade cyclohexane was 7900.00 yuan/ton, up 6.28% compared with the same period last week. The price of cyclohexane rose slightly. The price of cyclohexane was stable and strong. At present, the operating rate is normal, the supply side is stable, the logistics and shipment are smooth, the transaction atmosphere is general, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is general.

The average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane is 7900 yuan/ton. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 8000 yuan/ton. The overall market of cyclohexane is stable, and the willingness of downstream to stock up is average. At present, the supply side is normal, and the merchants give up profits and take orders.

Chemical index: On October 13, the chemical index was 1006 points, down 4 points from yesterday, down 28.14% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 68.23% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

Cyclohexane analysts from the business community believe that the cyclohexane market is mainly stable, and the price range is about – 8000 yuan/ton.

Yesterday, Sinopec cut phenol by 200 yuan/ton in East China to 11100 yuan/ton, and Sinopec cut phenol by 200-300 yuan/ton in North China to 11000-1200 yuan/ton. The factory concentrated on the reduction of on-site trading atmosphere, and the delivery of goods was not smooth. The market fell significantly, and the upside down price difference widened. On the whole, the downward value of market negotiations in East China was 10800-10850 yuan/ton, and other regions also fell by the same margin. Downstream bisphenol A also showed a downward trend, falling below 15000 yuan/ton through negotiation, and major factories in North China were lowered to 14500 yuan/ton. Other demand ends have not been significantly improved, and it is expected that the weak operation will continue today.

On October 12, phenol offers in various markets across the country were as follows:

Region, quotation, daily rise and fall

East China, 10800., – 200

Shandong Province, 1120., – 200

Yanshan surrounding areas, 11200., – 150

South China., 11000., – 100

The price of aluminum fluoride rises again after the festival

According to the data of the business agency, after the festival, the price of aluminum fluoride continued to rise in September, and the aluminum fluoride market rose. As of October 12, the average price of aluminum fluoride in China was 11050 yuan/ton, up 0.91% from 10950 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; Compared with the price of aluminum fluoride on September 1, 10650 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.76%. After the festival, the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials rose, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and the price of aluminum fluoride rose again after the festival.

The price of raw materials rose after the festival

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of fluorite rose sharply after the festival. As of October 12, the price of fluorite was 2943.75 yuan/ton, up 4.20% from the price of 2825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; After the festival, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose. As of October 12, the price of hydrofluoric acid was 10300 yuan/ton, up 3.15% from 9985.71 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. After the festival, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, the raw materials of aluminum fluoride, rose sharply, the cost of aluminum fluoride increased significantly, and the support for the rise of aluminum fluoride increased.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts from the aluminum fluoride industry of the business community believe that: the prices of aluminum fluoride raw materials, fluorite and hydrofluoric acid, rose sharply after the festival, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, the profits of aluminum fluoride enterprises declined, the starting level of aluminum fluoride enterprises was low, the inventory level of aluminum fluoride enterprises was low, and the supply of aluminum fluoride was relatively tight. In the future, there is still a shortage of supply and the price of raw materials will rise sharply. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large list of business associations, toluene rose slightly in the first ten days of this month and then weakened, and recovered slightly in the second ten days of this month. The price of toluene was 7780 yuan/ton on September 1 and 7700 yuan/ton on September 28, down 1.03% from the beginning of the month; Up 35.33% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

As domestic toluene exports increased in August and domestic sales increased, the supply pressure rose, leading to the continuous decline of toluene. In September, the terminal gasoline consumption increased significantly, which was good for toluene. Some enterprises increased the mixing of toluene for gasoline, decreased the export sales, and eased the pressure on market supply. However, due to the epidemic situation in many places around the Mid Autumn Festival, motor transport was limited, the gasoline market fell back, and the decline of crude oil widened, so toluene opened a downward channel. Near the end of the month, the operators waited for replenishment before the National Day, and the price rose slightly, but the actual demand was weak, and the increase was limited.

On the external side, the Asian market rebounded after falling this month. On September 28, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 940 dollars/ton, down 61.5 dollars/ton month on month, or 6.14%.

In terms of crude oil, in September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China continued to rise widely this month. At the beginning of the month, the price of domestic goods was 17575 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 19550 yuan/ton, up 11.24% from the beginning of the month and 40.39% from the same period last year.

In terms of the PX market, the domestic PX price rose steadily in the middle of the month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8800 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 9000 yuan/ton. The price was 2.27% higher than the beginning of the month, and 26.76% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the gasoline market in Shandong Province weakened this month, and the price fell in shock. The price at the beginning of the month was 9454 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8720 yuan/ton, 7.77% lower than the beginning of the month, and 12.2% higher than the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the expectation of supply tightening continues to play a game with economic and demand worries, and the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

As the export heat of toluene decreases, domestic sales will increase. In terms of domestic demand, the demand for downstream chemical products remains weak, and the demand for gasoline blending is expected to gradually decline in October. The supply and demand pressure of toluene may increase in the future, and the price may weaken. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on the price of toluene.

The market of nitrile rubber rose sharply in September. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of nitrile rubber at the beginning of the month was 15912 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month was 16925 yuan/ton. The price at the end of the month was 6.36% higher than that at the beginning of the month, and the peak in the month was 17025 yuan/ton. In the early September, the price of raw materials rose sharply, the market supply was tight, and the demand increased slightly, which together promoted the price of nitrile rubber to rise significantly; In the later period, with the price of raw materials falling slightly and the market supply returning to a loose situation, the market of nitrile rubber weakened slightly.

In September, except for the shutdown at the end of the month in Ningbo Shunze, the domestic nitrile rubber plant was basically operating normally. Most enterprises mainly delivered early orders. The market circulation supply was relatively small, and the market supply was tight.

In September, the raw material butadiene rose first and then fell, and the price of acrylonitrile rose significantly. The cost of nitrile rubber was supported. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of September 30, the price of butadiene was 8303 yuan/ton, down 4.14% from 8662 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the monthly high was 9277 yuan/ton; As of September 30, the price of acrylonitrile was 9870 yuan/ton, up 10.90% from 8900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

At the end of August and the beginning of September, power rationing in various regions gradually ended, and the downstream rubber products industry started to increase slightly. In addition, the downstream gradually replenished the inventory in small quantities due to double stocking within a month. The demand has certain support for nitrile rubber.

Future market forecast: NBR analysts from the business community believe that the current cost and demand of NBR have some support. In addition, the pressure on the supply side of Shunze for parking and maintenance is reduced at the end of the month. It is expected that the market of NBR will continue to rise after the festival.

This week, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride produced by o-phthalic acid was stable. As of the weekend, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by o-phthalic acid was 10300 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 10300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 40.85%.

Supply side: maintenance of some phthalic anhydride devices in the site

Recently, the supply of goods in the phthalic anhydride plant is a little tight. Some domestic devices have been overhauled. The operating rate of 120000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Tongling, Anhui is not high. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant in Xinyang Group has been shut down. It is expected that the start-up and restart will be carried out after the National Day holiday. Affected by the overhaul of the devices, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate will remain below 50%. The domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is insufficient, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride on the site will remain high, The market price of phthalic anhydride in East China is 10200-10400 yuan/ton, and the market price of phthalic anhydride in North China is 10100-10300 yuan/ton.

Cost end: the price of raw ortho benzene remains high

The price of ortho benzene in China remained at a high level. As of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 9000 yuan/ton, and the price trend was temporarily stable this week. According to the manufacturer’s response, the supply of raw materials ortho benzene is tight in the near future, ortho benzene manufacturers are not enough to start construction, the factory has been shut down for maintenance, and phthalic anhydride manufacturers are hard to find supplies. The 160000 t/a ortho benzene unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. began to reduce the load gradually at the end of August, and the maintenance is expected to last for 3 months; Fuhaichuang 240000 t/a o-benzene plant has been shut down since the end of June; The 40000 t/a ortho benzene unit of Luoyang Petrochemical Company was shut down. In addition, the import of ortho benzene was not large, the main port inventory was not large, and the supply of ortho benzene was tight, which restricted the production of phthalic anhydride manufacturers. The price of ortho benzene remained high. Supported by favorable cost factors, the phthalic anhydride market remained high.

Demand side: plasticizer market can maintain DOP price

The downstream DOP market price of phthalic anhydride has not changed much. At present, the domestic DOP price is 10120 yuan/ton, down 0.49% from the beginning of the week’s 10170 yuan/ton. The domestic DOP enterprises started to work, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has increased. The mainstream DOP price is 10100-10300 yuan/ton. The DOP market trend remains, and the phthalic anhydride price is temporarily stable.

Looking at the future market: Recently, the port’s ortho xylene inventory is still in storage, domestic ortho xylene manufacturers have carried out more maintenance, the short-term supply of ortho xylene continues to be tight, the downstream plasticizer industry has improved, and the actual demand has increased compared with the previous. In addition, the supply of phthalic anhydride is tight, but the price of phthalic anhydride is at a high level, and the price increase of phthalic anhydride market is limited in the later period, mainly maintaining a high shock.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the spot market price of PVC SG5 fell in September. On September 1, the average price of domestic PVC was 6461.43 yuan/ton, and on September 30, the average price was 6265.71 yuan/ton. The price fell 3.03% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

In September, the market price of PVC calcium carbide method SG5 rose first and then fell, with the overall trend mainly falling. In the first half of September, the PVC price increased steadily, the downstream inquiries increased, and the market trading atmosphere was fair. In the second half of September, the price fell, the spot market became weaker, and the futures price fell, which affected the confidence of the spot market. The spot market price fell, the actual transaction was limited, and the market trading atmosphere was light. Up to now, the quotation range of PVC 5 carbide in China is mostly around 6000-6450 yuan/ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on September 29, the international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 81.23 dollars/barrel, down 0.92 dollars or 1.12%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 87.18 dollars/barrel, down 0.87 dollars or 0.99%. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) will hold a ministerial meeting next week, after Russia proposed to reduce production by 1 million barrels per day, and oil prices rebounded in the previous two trading days. Oil prices fell on Thursday, mainly because the market weighed the risk of economic recession, and oil prices remained under pressure.

In terms of calcium carbide, in September, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fluctuated in a narrow range. The price of calcium carbide rose from 3700.00 yuan/ton on September 1 to 3733.33 yuan/ton on September 2, an increase of 0.90%. Maintain stable operation until September 8. Then it fell to 3616.67 yuan/ton on September 16, down 3.12%. Finally, it rose to 3700.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 2.20%. The price at the end of the month was 50.11% lower than the same period last year. In the future, it is predicted that carbide prices in northwest China will rise slightly in the first ten days of October, mainly due to consolidation.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business association believe that the spot market price of PVC fell this month, and the market demand was average. However, futures prices rebounded at the end of the month, driving the spot atmosphere to improve. The PVC market is expected to be stable and good in the short term.