This week, the spot tin market price (12.16-12.23) rose in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 191210 yuan/ton last weekend and 196910 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 2.98%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the figure above that tin prices will rise continuously after November 2022 due to macro factors.

Futures market situation this week

Variety/ Closing price/ Compared with the same period last week/ Inventory (ton)/ Change in inventory compared with last week (t)

Shanghai Wuxi/ 196550 yuan/ton/+ 5440 yuan/ton/ 4901./-995

London tin/ US $23940/ton/+ 340 USD/ton/ 2855./-35

In terms of futures market, Shanghai and Wuxi saw strong shocks this week, with a weekly rise of about 2.9%. On Wednesday, the news that the central bank strengthened the implementation of prudent monetary policy boosted the market, and Shanghai Tin rose.

In terms of the spot market, the overall operation was at a high level this week. At present, the manufacturer’s quotation is more cautious, and some enterprises have a strong price mentality. Affected by higher prices, the overall market trading is average. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic market as a whole has not changed much, which still shows loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery has increased slightly, and the market supply is loose. At present, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual market demand has little change. Although the holiday is approaching, the goods preparation before the holiday is average. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

On December 25, the non-ferrous index stood at 1200, unchanged from yesterday, 21.98% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1538 (2021-10-18), and 97.69% higher than the lowest point of 607 on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 15 kinds of commodities in the nonferrous metal sector in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 51st week of 2022 (12.19-12.23), with nickel (3.25%), dysprosium (2.91%) and silver (2.74%) in the top three. There were five kinds of commodities with a month on month decline, and the top three products with a decline were zinc (-2.65%), metal silicon (-1.48%) and electrolytic manganese (-0.57%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.7%.

According to the monitoring of the business community, the domestic BDO market has warmed up due to the favorable support of multi unit maintenance and factory bidding premium. From December 9 to 16, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers at the beginning of the week was 9436 yuan/ton, and at the weekend was 9590 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the price rose 1.63%, fell 14.37% month on month, and fell 69.06% year on year. The manufacturer has a strong intention to support the market, but the downstream industry is mainly wait-and-see, maintaining contract follow-up, just needing small spot purchase, and the focus of delivery and investment is weak.

On the cost side, raw calcium carbide: the business community monitored that the domestic calcium carbide price fell by a narrow margin, with the price at the beginning of the week at 3766 yuan/ton, and at the weekend at 3701 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.73%. In terms of methanol, the business community monitored that the price of domestic methanol in East China ports rose first and then fell in a narrow range, 2680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, 2655 yuan/ton at the weekend, and the price fell by 0.90% during the cycle. In the near future, there are few positive factors in the carbide and methanol markets, and the BDO cost support is weak.

On the supply side, the overall commencement of the industry dropped to less than 70%, the spot supply in the market was reduced, and the production enterprises were reluctant to sell, which boosted the factory’s auction price to 9550 yuan/ton. BDO supply level is obviously favorable.

On the demand side, the downstream opening rate of the terminal declined, and the market of several downstream products was weak and volatile, maintaining the small orders just needed to follow up and negotiate prices. The operating rate of downstream industries, such as PTMEG, PBT and TPU, remained at about 60%, and the overall incentive to buy gas was limited. The overall change in BDO demand was slightly positive.

The future forecast shows that the overall supply of the domestic BDO market has not changed much in the short term, but the industry is still in a loss state, and the manufacturers’ price keeping mentality continues. The downstream industry maintains contract procurement, and resists high prices when the cost transmission is not smooth. Business agency BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will be dominated by sideways consolidation.

According to the monitoring of bulk data by the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen recently. On the 12th, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8033.33 yuan/ton, and on the 16th, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8116.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04%. The price fell 3.23% year on year.

styrene

Recently, the styrene market price has risen. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has been dominated by shocks, and this week the price has risen slightly. The market of pure benzene was consolidated, and the cost support was average. Although the downstream is just in demand, the purchase intention is good, which has certain support for the market. The port inventory may have a small drop expectation, which is good for the styrene market. The short-term styrene market is expected to be dominated by gains.

In terms of raw materials, the recent narrow amplitude shock of pure benzene has continued to weaken the fundamentals of pure benzene. The downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; During the week, the crude oil fell continuously, and the cost faced a negative impact on the pure benzene market; Downstream styrene grew slightly, boosting the pure benzene market. The cost is weak, and the fundamentals of the pure benzene market are poor. It is expected that the pure benzene will continue its weak operation in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external price trend, pure benzene port inventory dynamics and pure benzene and downstream device dynamics on prices.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream of styrene rose and fell at different levels. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 9933 yuan/ton, and at the weekend, the average price of PS ordinary materials was 9933 yuan/ton, which was stable. The cost support is on the high side, the tight situation of goods in some areas continues, the supply of permeable benzene goods is slightly loose, and the traders tend to be cautious in trading. The mainstream price of GPPS in East China market is 8900-10800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS is 10050-11200 yuan/ton.

Recently, EPS price fluctuated slightly. Overall transaction weakened month on month. The average price of EPS ordinary materials is 10460 yuan/ton. The buying enthusiasm is not high. The EPS market price is weak. The manufacturer maintains a stable price for shipment, and the terminal demand is sluggish.

Recently, the domestic ABS market is in a weak stalemate, and the price rises and falls are mutual. The load of ABS industry has risen at a high level. At present, the plant is almost in full operation, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. Due to the supply pressure and the drag of raw material side, the factory price is difficult to increase.

International oil prices fell, and cost support was poor. In December, news of styrene unit restart increased, and domestic supply was expected to increase. The short-term styrene market is expected to fall mainly.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the early price of 4280 yuan/ton, up 8.08% year on year.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices operated stably, the supply of goods on the site was normal in the near future, the goods on the site were generally shipped, the manufacturer’s inventory was not high, the price of liquid ammonia at the upstream of the terminal rose, and the price of ammonium nitrate rose slightly, in addition, the price of nitric acid rose slightly. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream purchase is based on demand. Recently, the demand for downstream nitro compound fertilizer is normal, but the sales of domestic downstream civil explosive industry has come to an end. The demand for ammonium nitrate has decreased, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started to work. Recently, the price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 4800-5200 yuan/ton, that in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and that in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

The price of concentrated nitric acid in China rose this week. As of the weekend, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2450 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from 2433.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Ningxia Runxia Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2650 yuan/ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 2500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is normal, and the goods in the market are normal. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the market has risen, and the price of raw nitric acid has risen to support the ammonium nitrate market.

The price of upstream liquid ammonia fell this week. As of the weekend, the price of liquid ammonia was 4706.67 yuan/ton, 3.75% lower than the price of 4890 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. This week, the amount of ammonia released from the main production areas only increased, and the shipments from Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Henan and other places were large. The main reason is that a large number of maintenance devices are returned to production. Since the beginning of this month, Fujian Wanhua and Shenyuan devices have resumed production. This week, Shanxi Yaxin and Runjin have also started to operate. In addition, due to the high price of liquid ammonia in the early stage, most joint production enterprises switched from urea to liquid ammonia, resulting in a sharp increase in ammonia volume. Under the effect of successive price reductions, manufacturers made greater efforts to ship. The price decline of upstream liquid ammonia has a negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has increased, the market price of liquid ammonia has declined, the price of nitric acid has risen, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. Ammonium nitrate analysts from the business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may rise slightly in the later period.

The price of o-xylene fell this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of ortho xylene price of the business community that as of December 9, the price of ortho xylene was 8200 yuan/ton, down 3.53% from 8500 yuan/ton on December 4. Both upstream and downstream of the o-xylene industry chain fell, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the demand was insufficient. The domestic market of o-xylene fell.

Raw material mixed xylene market fell in shock this week

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business community that the mixed xylene price continued to fall this week. As of December 9, the price of mixed xylene was 7050 yuan/ton, down 3.56% from 7310 yuan/ton on December 4. Crude oil prices fell sharply, mixed xylene prices fell in shock, ortho xylene costs fell, and ortho xylene fell under increasing pressure.

The price of phthalic anhydride in the downstream fell due to volatility this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of the business community that the price of phthalic anhydride dropped sharply this week. As of December 9, the quotation of phthalic anhydride from Neighborhood France was 8150 yuan/ton, a continuous drop of 4.68% from the price of 8550 yuan/ton on December 4. The price of ortho phthalic anhydride dropped sharply this week, the downstream demand was weak, and ortho xylene fell under great pressure.

Future outlook

The analysts of the ortho xylene data of the business community believed that, on the cost side, the price of mixed xylene fell sharply, and the pressure on the decline of ortho xylene increased; On the demand side, phthalic anhydride continued to decline, while the demand for ortho benzene was weak. To sum up, the cost of ortho xylene fell and the demand was sluggish, and the price of ortho xylene fell in the future.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 9, 2022, the reference price of the domestic silicone DMC market was 16800 yuan/ton. Compared with the reference price of 16950 yuan/ton on December 4, 2022, the price decreased by 150 yuan/ton, or 0.88%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (12.04-12.09), the overall domestic silicone DMC market was weak and running downward. Although the end of the year is approaching, the demand for organic silicon downstream is still generally boosted. This week, the factory as a whole has once again delivered goods at a small margin. During the week, the market price of organic silicon DMC dropped by 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, there is still a game between the supply and demand side of organic silicon DMC, and the overall operating rate on the site is also at a low level. As of December 9, the market price of domestic silicone DMC was around 16600-17200 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of silicone DMC market

At the end of the year, the organosilicon DMC factory was under pressure and gave way to profits, which can be said to be “full of sincerity”. The organosilicon DMC data engineer of the business community believed that it was expected that in the early Spring Festival, the downstream stock purchase would also be started one after another, the trading atmosphere of the organosilicon DMC would be somewhat warmer, and the market price was expected to stabilize and rise slightly. More attention should be paid to the changes of the information on the supply and demand side after the specific trend.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8417 yuan/ton on December 5, and the average price was 8370 yuan/ton on December 9, with a decline of 0.56% during the period, 0.51% lower than that on December 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9283 yuan/ton on December 5 and 9283 yuan/ton on December 9. The quotation was stable during this period, down 0.54% compared with December 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8400 yuan/ton on December 5, and 8400 yuan/ton on December 9. The quotation was stable during this period, which was the same as that on December 1.

Polyethylene prices fell weakly this week, among which LLDPE fell significantly; LDPE prices remained stable after price reduction on Monday; HDPE quotation was stable. The weak crude oil price depressed the domestic polyethylene market. Some enterprises have shut down their equipment for maintenance, and the supply of polyethylene products has decreased. The domestic epidemic prevention and control policy has been relaxed, and the logistics and transportation have been eased, but the downstream demand is not good, and the orders of enterprises have decreased.

Supply side: The maintenance devices will resume work next week, and the supply side is expected to recover. On the demand side, the market mainly purchases on demand. Affected by domestic public events, the market was pessimistic in the future. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market will be dominated by weak operation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, toluene continued its downward trend this week. The price was 6640 yuan/ton on December 2 and 6210 yuan/ton on Friday (December 9), down 6.48% from last week; 7.25% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Although the demand for gasoline has improved slightly due to the relaxation of the epidemic policy, the crude oil continued to fall during the week, the cost side depressed the market mentality, and toluene continued to decline this week.

In terms of external markets, the price of toluene in Asia fell broadly this week. On Thursday (December 8), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was 714 US dollars/ton, down 63 US dollars/ton year on year, or 8.11%.

In terms of crude oil, the crude oil market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere this week. The market was worried that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates aggressively, and the U.S. oil product inventory increased significantly. Concerns about the future economic and demand prospects remained. As of December 9, Brent price fell by 9.47 dollars/barrel, or 11.07%, compared with last week; WTI fell by 8.96 US dollars/barrel, or 11.2%.

Downstream: In terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rebounded after falling this week. On December 2, the price was 17233 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 17067 yuan/ton, down 0.97% from last week and up 16.7% from the same period last year.

In terms of PX, the domestic PX price continued to decline this week. On December 2, the price was 8300 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 7450 yuan/ton, down 10.24% from last week and up 11.19% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline fell continuously this week. On December 2, the price was 7836 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 7653 yuan/ton, down 2.34% from last week and 2.97% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the global economic recession and weakening energy demand, and the short-term market will maintain a volatile pattern. We will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest OPEC+production policy, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The fundamentals of the toluene market are poor, lacking substantial positive support, and the short-term cost is difficult to change. It is expected that toluene will continue to operate in a weak position. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the average price of 55% of domestic powdered monoammonium was 3466 yuan/ton on December 5, and 3550 yuan/ton on December 9. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate rose 2.40%.

According to the data from the bulk list of business cooperatives, the average price of 64% of domestic diammonium phosphate market was 3866 yuan/ton on December 5, and 3900 yuan/ton on December 9. The market price of diammonium phosphate rose 0.86% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price trend of monoammonium phosphate continued to rise this week. The price of raw sulfur rose and the cost side was favorable. The quotation of the enterprise is firm, the downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the high price transaction is limited. The price of diammonium phosphate rose this week. The market supply is tight, the supply of goods is low, and the price of diammonium is firm. Most manufacturers suspend quotation, mainly issuing advance orders in the early stage. As of December 9, the ex factory quotation of 55 powdered monoammonium in Hubei is about 3500-3600 yuan/ton, that in Sichuan is about 3550 yuan/ton, and that in Henan is about 3550 yuan/ton, which is mainly based on actual negotiation. 64% of the diammonium market in Shandong Province quoted 3900-4000 yuan/ton, and 64% of the diammonium market in Yunnan Province quoted 3900-4000 yuan/ton when arriving in North China. The actual transaction was negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, the price of sulfur in East China rose this week. On December 9, the average price of sulfur in East China was 1513 yuan/ton. The sulfur quotation of refinery enterprises in Shandong is temporarily stable, and the mainstream price of solid sulfur is about 1430-1680 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1380-1550 yuan/ton. The terminal phosphate fertilizer winter storage market has been actively promoted, the demand for market procurement has increased, the manufacturers have been actively shipping, the market delivery is smooth, and the short-term sulfur market is forced.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the domestic phosphorus ore market this week was generally stable. Near the end of the year, some mining enterprises have closed their mines and stopped mining. The overall supply of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore in the site is still tight. The price of some mining enterprises in Guizhou has been implemented until the end of the year, and the overall news of phosphorus ore is relatively calm. As of December 9, the domestic phosphorus ore market price is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the specific price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

3、 Future market forecast

Ammonium phosphate analysts from the business community believe that the current operating rate of ammonium phosphate is at a low level, and the on-site supply is tight. The price of raw materials rose and the cost support was good. It is expected that the ammonium phosphate market will continue to rise steadily in the short term under the support of raw materials, tight supply and waiting for development.

In November 2022, the domestic coal tar production price fluctuated broadly in the first half of the month, and narrowed in the second half. The price at the beginning of the month was 6512.5 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 6507.5 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 0.08%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market rose for 12 consecutive weeks. Only after a small price correction in one week, the price continued to rise. The price fell sharply in early November, and then recovered slightly.

On November 28, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 224.40, unchanged from yesterday, 3.05% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and 375.93% higher than the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In November 2022, the bidding price of tar in Shanxi Province rose slightly as a whole. In the first half of the specific market, the price dropped significantly, while in the second half, the price fluctuated narrowly.

Narrow price fluctuation in downstream deep processing industry

Demand: The deep processing industry of coal tar is the main application field of high-temperature coal tar. The main commodities obtained from deep processing include naphthalene, anthracene oil, wash oil, asphalt, etc. At present, the deep processing industry is slightly more resistant to the high price of coal tar, but there is still a demand for procurement. According to the business community, coal tar deep processing enterprises are still profitable, and the operating rate remains at a normal level for a long time. As the tar price returns to a high consolidation trend, the price fluctuation of downstream deep processing related commodities is not obvious, and the supply and demand are in a weak balance.

At the end of the last bidding in November 25, the price of coal tar still kept a narrow fluctuation. The mainstream price in Shandong was 6400-6430 yuan/ton, that in Hebei was 6420-6450 yuan/ton, and that in Shanxi was 6450-6550 yuan/ton. The price difference between regions was small. At present, the tar and deep processing markets maintained a weak balance between supply and demand. In terms of supply, the production restriction of coking enterprises is still strong, the overall supply of tar is slightly tight, and the automobile transportation in some areas is blocked, the transportation is limited, and the sales of coking enterprises are active.

In the future market, the business community believed that the operating rate of tar production enterprises in the fourth quarter was expected to decline seasonally, the supply of coal tar was expected to be tight, and downstream enterprises are currently purchasing on demand, and the actual demand remains. Under the general environment of tight supply and fair demand, it is expected that the coal tar price will continue to operate at a high level in the short term, but due to the resistance of downstream deep processing enterprises to high priced raw materials, the overall room for improvement may be limited.