According to data monitoring from Business Society, the acrylonitrile market slightly declined in April. As of April 26th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.98% from the 10050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates narrowly, and the cost of acrylonitrile is relatively weak; Downstream ABS and polyacrylamide markets, with ABS operating slightly lower and slightly weaker support for acrylonitrile compared to the previous period; The fundamentals are not significantly positive, while the price of acrylonitrile is weak and slightly lower.

As of late April, the domestic operating rate of acrylonitrile remained around 7.7%, and the pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile remained high. Starting from the beginning of this month, the acrylonitrile unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical has been upgraded to full load operation, and the Koluer acrylonitrile unit has been restarted and started operation, gradually reaching 50% load operation

In April, the price of raw material propylene fluctuated narrowly, and the cost of acrylonitrile was relatively weak. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of April 26th, the domestic propylene price was at 7130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.11% from 7138 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a low point of 6986 yuan/ton and a high point of 7400 yuan/ton during the cycle.

In April, the downstream market price declined slightly, and the support for acrylonitrile was weak. Downstream ABS prices have fallen, with industry device starts slightly dropping to around 8.8%, slightly weakening support for acrylonitrile; The domestic production of nitrile rubber is temporarily stable, but the support for acrylonitrile is relatively weak. The price of polyacrylamide continues to decline, providing weak support for acrylonitrile.

Future forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that on the one hand, the cost of acrylonitrile fluctuates slightly at a low level, and on the other hand, the supply and demand of acrylonitrile are currently deadlocked; It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will weaken and consolidate in the later stage.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the domestic PC market continued to decline this week, and spot prices of various brands were generally lowered. As of April 21, the reference quotation for the PC sample enterprises of the Business Society was around 15616.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.58% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above figure, it can be seen that the recent decline in the bisphenol A market has led to a narrow rebound. As the holiday season approaches, the enthusiasm for entering the downstream epoxy resin market has increased, and the market negotiation atmosphere has improved. Holders have a stable mentality, and their prices are firm. It is expected that the market situation will continue to rise.

In terms of supply: The overall operating rate of domestic PC this week is close to 70%, with a narrow increase compared to the previous period. The PC industry is still operating at high loads and has ample supply. In addition, there have been some recent delays in maintenance plans and the production of new devices. Overall, the benefits of reducing losses in the early stage and increasing supply in the later stage have been fully realized, resulting in poor support for spot goods.

In terms of demand: Recently, downstream PC buyers have just needed to maintain production, and the business owners have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. The auction situation also fell short of expectations, with prices falling. At present, the starting position of terminal enterprises is not high, and the actual stocking operation has not improved, with light on-site trading. Traders’ mentality has weakened, and their offers are generally in line with the market.

Future Market Forecast

This week, the PC market fell, with a slight rebound in the upstream bisphenol A market after a decline, providing average support for PC costs. The load of domestic polymerization plants is deadlocked. The follow-up on the demand side has not improved, and the pressure on the supply side remains high. It is expected that the PC market will take some time to overcome the supply-demand contradiction and may continue to decline.

This week (4.17-23), the domestic ethyl acetate market rose steadily, and there was little room for market prices to rise or fall. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the increase of ethyl acetate was 0.49. The overall performance of the market remains stable, with a weak trading atmosphere.

Market analysis: The ethyl acetate market has maintained a stable trend recently. The market trading atmosphere is light, with downstream procurement mainly focused on demand. The trading ranges of ethyl esters in East China, Central China, and South China are all within the 50 yuan range. Most major manufacturers’ quotations have stabilized this week, while some manufacturers in Hebei, Anhui, and Jiangsu regions have slightly increased their prices, ranging from 50 to 100 yuan/ton. Shandong’s major manufacturers are bidding for shipments, and the bidding effect is average. The bidding starting price is not adjusted, and overall shipments remain at a normal level. The prices of raw materials and acetic acid have rebounded this week, with an increase of 1.65%. The cost side has slightly improved, and may continue to be transmitted to the terminal in the future. Boost downstream ethyl ester to maintain a strong trend.

Future forecast: Currently, the supply and demand of ethyl acetate are basically balanced, and in the event that short-term fundamentals are difficult to improve, it is expected that the range adjustment will continue next week. It is recommended to pay attention to the operation status of raw material acetic acid and ethyl acetate manufacturers. At present, the mainstream transaction price in the market is between 6700-6900 yuan/ton.

Weak consolidation of plasticizer DOP this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the DOP price was 9875.83 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% compared to the DOP price of 9934.17 yuan/ton on April 16. Plasticizer manufacturers are operating at a low and stable level, with sufficient supply in the plasticizer market. Downstream purchases are in urgent need, and customers have average purchasing enthusiasm. The market transaction atmosphere is cold, and the DOP market is weak and consolidating this week.

Market situation of raw material products

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8425 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61% compared to the price of 8562.50 yuan/ton on April 16. The price of ortho benzene has stabilized, the cost of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, and the support for upward growth has weakened. Downstream demand is poor, and the market for phthalic anhydride has remained stagnant this week. In the future, the upward momentum of phthalic anhydride prices has weakened, and downward pressure has increased.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 23, the price of isooctanol was 9142.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% compared to the price of isooctanol on April 16, which was 9142.86 yuan/ton. This week, the low starting point of isooctanol enterprises has temporarily stabilized, the supply of isooctanol has decreased, and the demand side plasticizer enterprises have temporarily stabilized. In the future, isooctanol will mainly experience weak fluctuations and consolidation.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that this week, the prices of raw materials for plasticizer DOP, phthalic anhydride and isooctanol, have fluctuated and fallen, resulting in a decrease in DOP costs and increased downward pressure on DOP. On the demand side, the downstream demand market is weak, and downstream enterprises of plasticizers have poor purchasing enthusiasm. Overall, the demand for cost reduction is weak, and the plasticizer market is weak and consolidating.

This week (April 7 to April 14), the price of 1 # electrolytic manganese market dropped slightly, and the market atmosphere was weak. The spot market price in East China was 16350 yuan/ton last weekend and 16300 yuan/ton this weekend, down 0.31%.

In terms of manganese ore: The overall performance of the manganese ore market is relatively weak. Although the transaction situation at Tianjin Port has improved, the market situation is still in a weak state, and prices have also shown a certain downward trend, mainly concentrated in oxidized ore. Compared to South Africa, prices are relatively stable, but there are also a few cases of selling at low prices. Inquiries in Qinzhou Port have weakened, the manufacturer’s operating rate is low, the price is significantly lower than the market price, and it is difficult to clinch a deal. Traders’ willingness to voluntarily offer has decreased, and a single negotiation is needed. As of April 14th, the mainstream transaction of semi carbonated carbon in Tianjin Port is around 33 yuan/ton, with Australian dollars ranging from 43 to 44 yuan/ton, Gabon’s from 38.5 to 39 yuan/ton, and South African high-speed rail at around 31.5 yuan/ton; The quotation for semi carbonic acid in Qinzhou Port is 33.5-34 yuan/ton, the price for Australia is 43.5-44 yuan/ton, and the price for Gabon is 39.5-40 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that prices have slightly decreased since December 2022, and have continued to decline after temporarily stabilizing in January. As of now, electrolytic manganese has been declining for four consecutive months.

The price of European strategic small metal manganese has slightly decreased this week, reaching $2260/ton on April 14th, with a decrease of $50/ton during the cycle. Recently, the market negotiation atmosphere has been limited, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

The overall performance of the electrolytic manganese market this week is weak, with mainstream domestic prices ranging from 14700 to 14900 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged from last week. In terms of supply, some enterprises in the main production areas have recently ceased production, and supply is expected to be slightly tight. There have been few recent changes in demand, but after the release of information on Puhang’s recent bidding, the market has received high attention and is waiting for the final bidding results to be announced. Overall, supported by tight supply, smelters have shown a slight upward trend in prices recently, and the bearish atmosphere in the market has gradually decreased. However, actual transactions are still limited, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in trading. The market is relatively cold, with FOB prices ranging from $2100 to $2140 per ton, slightly increasing. In the future, it is expected that the weak and stable operation will be the main focus, and more guidance on steel bidding prices will be awaited.

The inquiry for raw material manganese ore is poor, with cold transactions and two rounds of coke reduction. The market atmosphere is still slightly weak. Although the bidding price of Hegang has been determined and the market is clear, which has prompted a slight increase in prices, the overall demand for silicon and manganese is still poor and cannot change the sluggish situation of silicon and manganese. According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6900-7050 yuan/ton on April 14th, with an average market price of 7008 yuan/ton.

Related data:

According to customs data, the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in January 2023 was approximately 32683.5 tons, an increase of 31.1% compared to December. In January 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 2200.5 tons, a decrease of approximately 56.02% compared to December.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of nitric acid on April 10th this week was 2566 yuan/ton, and on April 13th it was 2560 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% in price.

On April 10th, mainstream enterprises in East China quoted prices ranging from 2500 to 2800 yuan/ton, while northern and central China quoted prices ranging from 2400 to 2600 yuan/ton. At present, the market is mainly based on inquiries, with light trading volume. The focus is on market transactions, and the market urgently needs to support prices with positive results.

During the period from 4.10 to 4.14, upstream liquid ammonia decreased by 5.96%. Downstream aniline prices increased by 5.88%, TDI prices increased by 7.62%, and potassium nitrate prices decreased by 1.33%. The raw material liquid ammonia continues to decline, while downstream potassium nitrate prices decline. The wait-and-see atmosphere in the nitric acid market is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of weak raw materials on the strong sentiment in local markets. Nitric acid analysts at Business Society predict that nitric acid prices may mainly fluctuate and weaken.

In March, the price trend of domestic fluorite increased. As of the end of the month, the average price of domestic fluorite was 3037.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89% compared to the price of 2981.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As a result, the spot price of fluorite was tight in March, and the price trend of fluorite increased.

Supply side: low mining operating rate, shortage of fluorite in stock

In March, the operating rate of domestic fluorite enterprises was relatively low, and outdated mines will continue to be phased out. In terms of adding new mines, mineral investigation work remains challenging. Mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, resulting in a serious shortage of fluorite mines and a shortage of domestic fluorite raw materials. The operation of fluorite flotation devices is limited, and spot supply is tight. The price trend of fluorite has rebounded.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid slightly increases, refrigerant market rises

The price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream market rose slightly. As of the end of the month, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was 9800 yuan/ton. In March, the price rose 0.29%. The domestic hydrofluoric acid market trend rose slightly. Recently, some devices are still in shutdown. The small increase in the price of hydrofluoric acid in the upstream market has formed a positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite market has recovered.

The market for downstream refrigerant products at the terminal has risen, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has remained low. Some enterprises have slightly increased their factory prices after resuming work, leading to a slight increase in the price of domestic refrigerant R22. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and inventory is within a reasonable range. There is still a wait-and-see sentiment. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a is temporarily stable. However, currently, on-demand procurement is the main trend, and downstream enterprises are not operating high. Traders have a strong wait-and-see attitude. The current market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25500-26500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not resumed production. Due to the impact of light trading volume, the downstream R134a market trend is temporarily stable. Overall, the refrigerant market has slightly increased, forming a certain positive support for the raw material market.

In addition to the traditional demand of the refrigerant industry in the downstream, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, has constantly developed demand in emerging fields. It is also used in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, and in fields such as national defense and nuclear industry, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite anode, photovoltaic panels, etc. With the demand of new energy and semiconductor and other fields driving, the outlook of the fluorochemical industry chain has been supported in the long run.

Future market forecast: In the near future, the supply of raw material fluorite ore is tight, fluorite production is limited, and the spot supply is tight. In addition, the refrigerant industry is gradually entering the peak sales season, and the new energy, semiconductor, and new material industries are developing rapidly, which will support the demand for fluorite for a long time. Chen Ling, an analyst of the business community, believes that the price trend of fluorite market is rising.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market rose and fell back in March. From March 1 to 31, the domestic aggregate MDI market price fell from 16560 yuan/ton to 15860 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 4.23% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 17.89%.

At the beginning of the month, boosted by the higher settlement prices of production enterprises, spot costs moved up, and traders rose. However, the high level transaction was blocked, and the specific transaction was weak, making it difficult for the rally to continue. In the first ten days of this month, as the price of the aggregated MDI market rose to a high level, the overall market atmosphere fell, and specific transactions decreased. Traders are adjusting their quotations and waiting for the actual order. In the middle of June, due to insufficient demand and a poor overall atmosphere in the aggregated MDI market, traders have lowered their factory quotations in order to actively ship. Near the end of the month, the downstream demand side is experiencing poor buying sentiment, insufficient tracking ability, and a strong negotiation atmosphere. Traders often lowered their quotations by around 200 yuan/ton in order to ship the goods to the order, but the results were not significant, and the aggregate MDI spot market continued to decline.

On the supply side, the 400000 ton/year MDI device in Chongqing was restarted on March 6, and the 800000 ton/year MDI device in Ningbo returned to normal production status on March 18. The MDI operating rate in March was 79%. Next month, China’s aggregate MDI production and capacity utilization weekly data are expected to be around 178400 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 75%, down from the current period. There are positive factors in the supply side.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: In March, the domestic price of pure benzene fluctuated at a high level. On March 31, the benchmark price of pure benzene for the business community was 7233.83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.83% compared to the beginning of this month (7103.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: In March, the domestic aniline market price gradually increased. On March 31, the benchmark price of aniline for the business community was 13150.00 yuan/ton, up 7.79% compared to the beginning of this month (12200.00 yuan/ton). There are positive factors in the cost side of short-term aggregate MDI.

On the demand side, the follow-up efforts on the demand side have been poor. In addition to maintaining high orders from the main factories of refrigerators and freezers, overall downstream demand side buying has been poor, and short-term aggregate MDI demand side support is insufficient.

In the future, it is predicted that the maintenance of devices will gradually resume and the supply will increase, but the downstream demand will be favorable for a long time. The analyst of Business News Polymerization MDI predicts that the domestic polymerization MDI market is mainly subject to fluctuations and consolidation.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the domestic vitamin market continued to decline in March, with relatively active trading of individual products, a general atmosphere, and a downward trend in prices.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Agency, vitamin C decreased slightly in March, with the average price of food vitamin C at the beginning of the month being 27 yuan/kg, and the average price at the end of the month stabilizing at 25.33 yuan/kg, a decrease of 6.19%. Affected by the continued decline in demand, the market price of vitamin C continues to decline, and there is no obvious positive information guidance in the market, resulting in a weak price of vitamin C that is difficult to correct.

In March, the decline in vitamin A prices slowed down, with an average price of 94 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month and 92 yuan/kg at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 2.13%. The current mainstream market quotation is 88-92 yuan/kg, and the European market quotation is 23.5-25 euros/kg. The demand for vitamin A in the market is weak, and despite constant news from maintenance and parking companies, it has not brought significant benefits to the market. Market purchases and sales are mostly in line with the market, and the focus of price transactions continues to shift downward.

In March, the overall price of vitamin E fell, with the average price of feed grade vitamin E at the beginning of the month being 79 yuan/kg, and the average price at the end of the month being 78.33 yuan/kg, a monthly decrease of 0.85%. The quotation for the European market is 8.0-8.2 euros/kg. Large domestic factories have stopped production for maintenance, and the vitamin E market has stabilized in the middle of the year. The willingness of factories to increase prices is evident, with downstream demand primarily emerging.

Aftermarket Forecast

Vitamin analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current vitamin market demand is still weak, with small orders being mostly traded. Without the guidance of significant positive factors, it is expected that the vitamin market will maintain a weak downward trend, and close attention will be paid to market trends and changes in enterprise production in the future.

According to the monitoring by the Business News Agency, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has been stable this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9714.29 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price of 9714.29 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.12%.

Supply side: The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid is low and stable, with the mainstream price of 9500-10000 yuan/ton negotiated by various regions of the country. Recently, some units are still in shutdown, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is still sufficient, and the manufacturer’s hydrofluoric acid order situation is poor. Affected by this, the price of hydrofluoric acid remains low.

Raw material side: The market price of raw fluorite rose slightly, with the average domestic fluorite price of 2962.5 yuan/ton as of the weekend, and the price rose slightly by 0.42% this week. Recently, domestic fluorite stocks are relatively tight, and the situation of shipping has improved. Raw material mining enterprises are facing increasingly stringent safety and environmental requirements, resulting in insufficient construction of fluorite mines. The insufficient supply of raw materials is also a major factor affecting the supply of fluorite. The price trend of fluorite on the market is rising, and the market trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable.

The price trend of raw material sulfuric acid market has declined. As of the weekend, the average price of domestic sulfuric acid was 255 yuan/ton. This week, the price fell by 6.71%, and this week’s price trend has declined. Recently, the operation of domestic sulfuric acid plants has been stable, with sufficient supply, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement for sulfuric acid has declined. Negative factors have affected the downward trend of sulfuric acid prices, which has affected the stable trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market.

Demand side: The market of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal has risen slightly, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has remained low. Some enterprises resumed work and slightly increased the factory price, leading to a slight increase in the price of domestic refrigerant R22. The refrigerant R22 manufacturer’s load is not high, inventory is within a reasonable range, and there is considerable wait-and-see sentiment. Affected by the low price of hydrofluoric acid, the refrigerant industry is under pressure, and the price increase of R22 is limited. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low load, and the price trend of R134a is temporarily stable. However, currently, demand based procurement is dominant, and downstream enterprises are not starting high. Traders are in a strong wait-and-see mood. Currently, the market price of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 25500-26500 yuan/ton, and some enterprises have not yet resumed production. Due to the impact of light refrigerant trading, the market trend of downstream R134a is stable. Recently, procurement in the downstream refrigerant industry is not active, with a operating rate of less than 30%. For upstream raw materials, procurement is mainly based on demand, and the market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable.

Future Forecast: In the short term, the market trend of raw material fluorite will increase, while the market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry will slightly increase. However, the trend of sulfuric acid prices will decline, and the start of refrigerant production will remain sluggish. Due to the combined impact of both short and long factors, Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at the Business Agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will remain low and stable in the short term.