1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China is 6760 yuan/ton, which is 0.60% higher than the reference average price of 6720 yuan/ton on February 18th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 25th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China is 7133 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the reference average of 7133 yuan/ton on February 18th.

2、 Market analysis

Market Aspects

This week, the domestic price of phosphoric acid mainly fluctuated slightly. As of February 25th, the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6600-7000 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6600-6800 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6650-7300 yuan/ton.

In terms of cost

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus. The market price of yellow phosphorus has fallen this week. At present, the supply of yellow phosphorus in the market is loose, and downstream demand for replenishment is high, resulting in low purchasing intentions and mostly low-priced transactions. Short term domestic yellow phosphorus prices are expected to remain weak.

Raw material phosphate rock market. The phosphate ore market has remained stable this week, maintaining a high and steady operation. At present, the market supply and demand are balanced, and market trading is still acceptable. It is expected that domestic phosphate rock prices will continue to operate steadily in the short term.

Supply and demand side

The supply and demand balance in the phosphoric acid market this week. At present, the supply of phosphoric acid in the market is stable, with stable shipments on the demand side and downstream replenishment mainly for urgent needs. Expected to maintain a balance between supply and demand in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The phosphate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the recent phosphate market has experienced narrow fluctuations, with overall stability being the main factor. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has decreased, and there is insufficient cost support. The market transaction atmosphere is good, and the transaction volume is still acceptable. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will mainly experience consolidation and operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mixed xylene market fluctuated within a certain range this week, with a slight overall decline. From February 17 to February 24, 2025, the mixed xylene price was 6670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. There are slight differences in performance among different regions, with Shandong experiencing a decline followed by an increase, and downstream demand initially weak and then strong during the week. The PX and oil blending industries actively entered the market for procurement, driving prices in Shandong to fall first and then rise. Affected by high inventory, the spot market in East China is under pressure and experiencing a slight decline. The overall inventory in southern China is high, and the market is under pressure to decline.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. As of February 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.40 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.43 per barrel. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, and the premium of oil prices has fallen; In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has affected investor confidence. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, the US has imposed tariffs and Trump has requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices. In addition, US crude oil inventories remain high, and there are still concerns in the market about crude oil demand, which has suppressed crude oil prices; On the other hand, the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, and crude oil market prices remain low.

Supply side: Sinopec xylene quotation summary. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable production and sales of equipment. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of February 24th, East China Company quoted 6700 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6750-6800 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On February 24th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7500 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities was stable, with normal sales, and the price was temporarily stable compared to February 17th. As of February 21st, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 860-862 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 885-887 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of only 1 US dollar/ton compared to the closing price on February 14th.

Market forecast: The overall outlook for the crude oil market is weak, with limited cost support. In terms of supply, Shandong’s local refining enterprises have recently had low inventory, and downstream purchasing intentions are still acceptable. Inventory in the East China region has been running at a relatively high level recently. In terms of demand, except for Shandong region, which has a good purchasing intention, the downstream purchasing intention in other regions has been relatively weak in recent times, and the ability to receive goods is limited. Overall, Shandong region is expected to operate steadily, moderately, and strongly under the support of demand, with slight upward potential, while other regions are expected to have weaker trends.

This week (2.15-2.21), the dichloromethane market in Shandong continued to lower prices and offer discounts for sales. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong Province on February 21 was 2410 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 6.32%.

The supply of dichloromethane in the Shandong market is stable, downstream demand is slowly recovering, and there is a lack of support for essential purchases. The pressure on enterprises to ship has increased, and inventory is high. Enterprises continue to lower prices and offer discounts for shipments. At present, the market is in a supply-demand game, with downstream demand supporting it, and there is still a bearish sentiment. On February 21st, the mainstream ex factory price of dichloromethane in Shandong region was around 2350-2400 yuan/ton.

Supply side: The operating load of the methane chloride unit in the enterprise has remained stable this week. The following is the operation status of the unit:

Cost aspect: The methanol market atmosphere has eased, supply is tight, and the market has fluctuated slightly upwards. On February 20th, the spot price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2595 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.65% from the beginning of the week. The liquid chlorine market is experiencing a weak downward trend, with stable supply and reduced demand. In order to promote shipments, companies have slightly lowered the price of liquid chlorine.

Demand side: Dichloromethane is widely used, downstream production is gradually recovering, and procurement enthusiasm is not high. The operating rate of the refrigerant R32 industry is relatively low, and the overall supply is tight. In the long run, there is an expected increase in demand, and it is expected that the market will maintain a stable and upward trend in the future.

Business analysts believe that in the short term, enterprises will mainly consume inventory, and it is expected that dichloromethane will operate steadily, moderately, and weakly.

Product Name: Pure Benzene

Latest price: On February 17th, the average market price was 7846.33 yuan/ton

Analysis: Today, the focus of the domestic pure benzene market is downward. Shandong’s local refining enterprises have mainly lowered their prices. Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China have stable prices for pure benzene, with a price of 7750 yuan/ton. The spot price of pure benzene in East China is consolidating at a high level. Overall, the confidence in the pure benzene market is average. It is expected that the pure benzene market will mainly fluctuate within a certain range in the short term, and actual transactions will be subject to negotiation.

The liquid ammonia market has experienced continuous fluctuations and downturns in the previous two months, gradually bottoming out and stabilizing in February. This week (2.10-14), domestic liquid ammonia rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 2.15%. The main reason is the stable downstream demand, and the high-speed lifting after the holiday has ensured smooth transportation. Partial maintenance of equipment in northern regions has relieved supply pressure. In addition, downstream resumption of work after the holiday has increased procurement volume. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2250-2450 yuan/ton.

Device maintenance increases supply pressure relief

In terms of supply, after the holiday, the supply is basically stable, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. The production of equipment in the main production areas of the north has slightly decreased. Since February, there has been an increase in maintenance equipment, but companies such as Runfeng have not resumed work. And the temporary shutdown of ammonia companies due to malfunctions has affected some of their production. Mainly manifested in Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, and the Two Lakes region. At the beginning of the week, prices generally increased, but prices stabilized from mid week to the weekend, with manufacturers raising prices by over 100 yuan/ton this week. The market shows a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall industrial chain has slightly improved

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia has slightly improved, and the upstream natural gas has shaken off the sluggish situation in January, with prices rising this week by 2.74%. In addition, the downstream sector has generally rebounded, mainly reflected in the strong rigidity of downstream demand and a slight rebound in agricultural demand; In addition, industrial demand remains primarily driven by essential needs. The main downstream product is urea (0.98%).

Downstream urea market slightly rebounds

In terms of downstream related products such as urea, the urea market has rebounded this week with a slight increase in prices. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic urea market has risen by 0.98%. As of this Friday, the mainstream quotation for small and medium-sized particles in Shandong region is around 1700-1750 yuan/ton. The increase in urea prices is very limited, mainly due to the fact that agricultural demand has not truly improved, only due to post holiday purchases by end-users and speculative behavior by traders to buy at the bottom. The market trading atmosphere has improved compared to the previous period. The increase in shipments from urea factories is limited, but inventory pressure has slightly eased. The short-term supply and demand situation may maintain a basic balance, and prices will continue to consolidate.

Market forecast:

Business analysts believe that the recent surge in liquid ammonia prices is expected to be a short-term behavior, with a slight cooling of the weekend trading atmosphere and weak increases in manufacturer quotes. The supply side will enter a period of device recovery, and there will be fewer maintenance devices than resumption devices in the later stage, leading to an expected increase in supply pressure. But there is no bright spot on the demand side, and the operating rate of downstream factories is insufficient, which will suppress the shipment speed of ammonia plants. The price of liquid ammonia is prone to decline but difficult to rise in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda was relatively strong in January. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of caustic soda in Shandong was 827 yuan/ton. On January 24th, the caustic soda price in Shandong was 995 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.31% compared to January 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the price of caustic soda tends to be strong in the operating market. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1000-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is relatively strong, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 950-1050 yuan/ton. Due to the maintenance of caustic soda enterprises at the beginning of the month, the inventory of the Shandong liquid alkali market has decreased, and the overall operation is relatively strong. Currently, the overall inventory is still not high. The tight supply situation in the market has led to an increase in caustic soda prices, and the export business has entered a period of explosive growth. Although downstream demand is approaching the Spring Festival, it is still relatively positive.

On January 23, the Business Social Chemical Index was 834 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 40.43% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 39.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been relatively strong, with low inventory in some areas and active downstream demand. However, pre holiday stocking is nearing completion. It is expected that caustic soda will maintain a stable operating market in the later part of the Spring Festival, depending on downstream market demand.

Bromine is the only non-metallic substance in liquid form at room temperature, with the chemical formula Br2. It has a deep reddish brown color and a pungent odor. Bromine has lively physicochemical properties and can form a wide variety of inorganic bromides as well as a large number of organic compounds containing bromine. Due to the unique physicochemical properties of different bromides, bromine has become a widely used basic chemical raw material and is one of the key raw materials for chemical production and even the entire industrial production.

Let’s take a look at the price of bromine: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the overall price of bromine in 2024 presents a “w” shape, with an average market price of 24800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and 21900 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a price drop of 11.69%.

From the monthly K-bar chart of bromine, it can be seen that in 2024, there were 6 months of increase and 6 months of decrease. The largest increase was in May, with prices rising by 13.78%, and the largest decrease was in March, with prices falling by 16.22%.

Let’s take a look at the annual comparison chart of bromine. From the annual comparison chart, it can be seen that the overall price of bromine has been weak this year, and its price is at a historical low of about 5 years.

Let’s take a closer look at the price trend. In the first stage, prices declined from January to early April, and this stage is in a continuous downward trend. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 24800 yuan/ton, and on April 1st, the market average was 18200 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 26.61%. In the first quarter of 2024, prices have been unilaterally declining. At the beginning of the year, bromine manufacturers still had a small amount of inventory due to the Spring Festival, mainly consuming inventory. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are operating at low loads, with a low willingness to purchase and a focus on purchasing for essential needs. Downstream demand is weak, and there is sufficient supply of imported bromine and seawater bromine entering the market, resulting in a continuous decline in bromine prices until early April.

In the second stage, from mid April to June 22, the price increased from the average market price of 18100 yuan/ton in mid April to around 23500 yuan/ton on June 22, with a price increase of 29.83%. Mainly due to the stocking of goods by enterprises before May Day, prices experienced an upward trend, which continued until late June.

The third stage, the consolidation period from July to mid October, saw prices fluctuate around 19800-20600 yuan/ton. Mainly due to poor demand, enterprises have a stable mentality, and their intention to stabilize prices is more obvious. They mainly hold onto goods and are reluctant to sell. However, in the case of weak downstream expectations, it is difficult to raise prices. The game of supply and demand is dominated by price consolidation.

The fourth stage, which rose in late October and then fell. Mainly due to manufacturer maintenance, the price of bromine has increased. But with the price increase, downstream resistance began, and there was no driving force for the price increase of bromine, so the price subsequently consolidated and operated mainly.

The overall price of bromine in 2024 shows a “W” shape. Can the price improve in 2024

On the supply side: From the supply side, there has been relatively little change in the supply of bromine in China, and the overall supply trend is relatively stable. Due to the decreasing underground brine resources, the increase in bromine production capacity in China is slow. The data shows that the domestic production in 2024 will be 92000 tons, with an average annual capacity utilization rate of 58%, which is not significantly different from last year.

In terms of import and export: Currently, the self-sufficiency rate of China’s domestic bromine market is not high, and bromine heavily relies on imports. China’s bromine self-sufficiency rate has remained at a low level in recent years, but the dependence on bromine imports is high, and the supply of the bromine industry chain is constrained by countries such as Israel, the United States, and India. Customs data shows that the annual import volume of bromine in China will be close to 80000 tons in 2024.

In terms of fuel, the long-term sluggish downstream demand has led to slow inventory consumption by manufacturers. The main flame retardant, tetrabromobisphenol A, maintains low load operation with low prices. The price of tetrabromobisphenol A is close to the cost line, resulting in a significant compression of profits. At the same time, there is a lack of order support. Bromine procurement is mainly sporadic replenishment, while flame retardant manufacturers only focus on essential replenishment. The data shows that the downstream demand for bromine in 2024 is about 150000 tons.

Prediction: Business Society analysis believes that the price of bromine has been weak and consolidating in the near future. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have generally supported the market in the near future. As the year-end approaches, most companies have stocked up and prices will not fluctuate too much in the near future. The change in bromine supply in our country is relatively small, and we rely on imported bromine from abroad. Overall, it is expected that bromine prices will remain weak in the short term. However, as the weather warms up after the year and businesses resume production, downstream demand may recover, and bromine may rebound after the year, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the domestic fluorite prices have remained stable, with an average price of 3603.75 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the early week price of 3603.75 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 7.17%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of factory price increases is strong. In addition, with the decrease in temperature and the approaching Spring Festival, the number of holiday enterprises has increased, and the fluorite trading atmosphere is light. This week.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price stable, refrigerant market still acceptable

This week, the price of hydrofluoric acid remained stable, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has recently been negotiated at 10800-11300 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid has declined to more than 50%. In January, the pricing of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers decreased, and the price of fluorite remained stagnant due to this news.

The downstream refrigerant market in the terminal is still promising, but the refrigerant production situation has declined, and there has been a continuous destocking throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the foreign trade market prices are still acceptable, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The refrigerant market has experienced a decline in production, which has led to a suppression of the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as in national defense, nuclear industry and other fields, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF、 Graphite negative electrodes, photovoltaic panels, etc., have received certain support in the application of fluorite due to the demand for new energy and semiconductors.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. However, the downstream refrigerant industry has experienced a decline in production, and there have been more companies on vacation recently, resulting in a light trading atmosphere. Overall, the domestic fluorite market is expected to remain stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has rebounded and stopped falling this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was around 827 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 885 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 7.01% and a year-on-year increase of 12.31%. On January 9th, the Business Social Chemical Index was 822 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 41.29% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 37.46% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been rising this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region has risen, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 850-900 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 900-960 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is temporarily stable, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali being around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%). This week, the inventory of caustic soda enterprises has declined, and the price of caustic soda purchased by downstream alumina enterprises has increased. Downstream alumina enterprises are approaching the end of the year, and their stocking enthusiasm is good. In addition, the strong operation of alumina prices has driven up the price of caustic soda.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 53rd week of 2025 (12.30-1.3), there were 1 commodity that rose, 3 commodities that fell, and 2 commodities that rose or fell to zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that have risen are: baking soda (0.13%); The main commodities experiencing a decline are: calcium carbide (-2.94%), light soda ash (-1.95%), and PVC (-0.36%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.85%.

Business analysts believe that in recent times, caustic soda prices have been operating strongly, and the alumina industry has been operating strongly. Before the year, chlor alkali enterprise inventories remained low, and the market trading atmosphere was relatively positive. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda will maintain a strong operating market in the later period, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, in December, the raw material market weakened, demand was weak, and the domestic adipic acid market fluctuated and fell. On December 1st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8300 yuan/ton, and on December 31st, the average market price of adipic acid was 8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41%.

Negative led to a volatile decline in the adipic acid market in December

At the beginning of December, the domestic adipic acid market continued to rise. Mainly due to the rising prices of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, the cost has increased, and the demand for purchasing adipic acid from end-users has increased. With the strong bullish sentiment of adipic acid manufacturers and multiple bullish factors supporting it, the adipic acid market continues to rise, with prices rising. The mainstream market price is 8500-8600 yuan/ton, and the market is recovering.

In mid month, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline weakly. Mainly due to the weakening of upstream raw materials such as pure benzene and cyclohexanone, limited support for cost increases, and weak demand for adipic acid procurement from end-users. In addition to the oversupply in the adipic acid market and the combination of multiple negative factors, the adipic acid market continues to decline weakly, with the mainstream market price ranging from 8100-8400 yuan/ton, indicating a weak market trend.

At the end of the month, the domestic adipic acid market continued to weaken. The main reason is that the upstream raw material pure benzene and cyclohexanone have poor market conditions, with limited cost boosting effect, and the terminal demand for adipic acid procurement is average. Due to the ongoing supply pressure in the adipic acid market and the dominance of negative factors, the adipic acid market continues to weaken, with mainstream market prices ranging from 8100-8200 yuan/ton, indicating a weak and stable trend.

The adipic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the raw material market is weakening and the terminal demand is not good, so the adipic acid market will continue to weaken in January.