1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business Society’s bulk ranking, the price of bromine has been running weakly recently. On September 2nd, the average market price of bromine was 20660 yuan/ton, and on September 9th, the average market price of bromine was 20400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.05%. On September 8th, the bromine commodity index was 72.14, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 70.58% from the highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27) during the cycle, and an increase of 22.44% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

On the supply side, data shows that the operating rate of bromine sample enterprises this week was 65.37%, an increase of 1.29% compared to last week. This week’s rainfall has decreased, and maintenance companies affected by previous rainfall have begun to resume production. Bromine production has increased, and there is also a supplement of imported bromine. The overall supply of bromine is relatively sufficient.

In terms of demand, the main downstream demand for flame retardants is weak. Weak shipments, dominated by bearish factors. The overall supply of bromine in China is sufficient and in a state of oversupply. Southern manufacturers have not yet experienced an increase in demand, and they are striving for stable prices.

In terms of raw material sulfur, the overall price of sulfur is operating steadily. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 1465 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of use was 1425 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.73% and a year-on-year increase of 21.1%. The sulfur plant is operating normally, and the market supply is sufficient. We are waiting for the arrival of autumn, and the autumn fertilizer market is gradually developing. Downstream production may increase, and the market trading atmosphere will improve.

Business analysts believe that bromine prices have been weak recently. There has been less precipitation of bromine this week, and the overall supply of bromine has been stable and sufficient in recent times. The downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries are generally supported, and the market is mainly cautious in procurement. Strong supply leads to weak demand, and the comprehensive prediction of short-term bromine prices or market consolidation based on the supply-demand game depends on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% industrial grade phosphoric acid in China was 6480 yuan/ton on August 1st, and 6640 yuan/ton on August 30th. The price of industrial grade phosphoric acid in China has increased by 2.47% this month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6716 yuan/ton on August 1st, and 6850 yuan/ton on August 30th. The price of wet process phosphoric acid in China has increased by 1.99% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid fluctuated and rose in August. In the first half of August, the price of phosphoric acid slightly increased. The raw material yellow phosphorus market first rose and then fell, and the cost support is still acceptable. The supply of phosphoric acid in the market is tight, and there is some support on the supply side. In the second half of August, the price of phosphoric acid rose rapidly. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus continues to rise, increasing cost support. The market supply and demand situation is good, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved. As of August 30th, the ex factory price of 85 industrial grade phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6750-6900 yuan/ton, and in Sichuan region it is around 6650 yuan/ton. The domestic market price for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6700-6900 yuan/ton.

The market price of raw material yellow phosphorus has fluctuated and risen this month. The supply in the spot market is tight, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a shift in the focus of market transactions. Downstream procurement on demand, adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards high prices. It is expected that the domestic yellow phosphorus market will consolidate and operate at a high level in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s phosphate analyst believes that the phosphate market has been rising recently. At present, the high level of raw material yellow phosphorus is being consolidated, and the supply of phosphoric acid in the market remains tight. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will continue to operate strongly.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been declining this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 2134 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 1858 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.56%. On August 29th, the baking soda commodity index was 124.00, a decrease of 0.11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 47.42% from the cycle high of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 40.48% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: Cycle refers to September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to Business Society, the price of baking soda has been weak this month, and downstream markets have been purchasing according to demand in the near future. At present, the domestic price of baking soda is running weakly, with the mainstream ex factory price in Henan region being around 1400-1600 yuan/ton. Raw materials: According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash fell in August. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1884 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.93% and a decrease of 37.73% compared to the same period last year.

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of baking soda has been weak in recent times, and the upstream raw material soda ash has been weak in recent times. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have been mainly purchasing according to demand, with moderate purchases. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that the price of baking soda will be weak in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the domestic acrylonitrile market remained stable and consolidated, with some spot prices rebounding slightly. Suppliers are reluctant to sell at low prices and tend to prefer contract trading. The positive support for the week mainly comes from the supply side, among which the Jieyang unit of Jihua is scheduled to shut down unexpectedly. The 130000 ton/year unit will be shut down for maintenance for about a week from August 20th, and its downstream 600000 ton ABS unit will maintain normal production. There is a demand for external acrylonitrile procurement, which has led to a reduction in supply in the South China region, and some buyers have entered the East China market, forming support for market sentiment. At the same time, the current acrylonitrile price is at a historical low, and there is an intention to buy from the bottom and replenish the market. Coupled with the approaching end of the month, the enthusiasm of middlemen for spot sales is not high, which has pushed up the focus of local negotiations.

Fundamental analysis

On the cost side: With the phased support of demand this week, the propylene market slightly rose. As of August 22, the mainstream closing reference is 6780-6930 yuan/ton. International oil prices continue to decline, dragging down market sentiment. However, with the current concessions from propylene enterprises, the overall inventory is in a controllable state, and downstream demand buying is still acceptable, providing some support for price trends. It is expected that the propylene market prices will remain stable in the near future.

Supply side: The average weekly operating rate of acrylonitrile in China this week was 78.72%, an increase of 4.64% compared to last week. As of August 22, the inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was about 74800 tons, an increase of 5400 tons from last week, and the inventory is still to be digested.

Demand side: Downstream demand is weak, with an average weekly operating rate of 65.4% in the ABS industry, down from -1.6% last week; The acrylic fiber industry started operating at 77.4% per week, unchanged from last week.

Market forecast: In the near future, some devices will release plans for later load reduction and maintenance, which will have a certain positive impact on the supply side. At the same time, it will also trigger intermediaries and downstream users to buy stocks and replenish, which may stimulate market exploration. However, the short-term supply reduction is not significant, and the industry inventory still needs to be digested. Coupled with the slow recovery of terminal consumption, the market rebound space is limited. It is expected that the domestic acrylonitrile price will rebound slightly next week, and the spot self pickup price may reach around 8100-8300 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11866 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11833/ton, a decrease of 0.28% in price.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have remained stable this week, with some manufacturers’ quotations falling and market demand falling short of expectations. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12500 yuan/ton, lacking favorable support for prices. The focus is on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market is mainly driven by inquiries, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will fluctuate in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 13th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.69% from the reference average price of 2309 yuan/ton on August 6th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market price first suppressed and then rose. As of August 13th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2090-2120 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2100 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 2130 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong region it is around 2280 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market supply decreased this week compared to last week, and the supply and demand are currently relatively balanced. In terms of demand, agriculture and industry still maintain a focus on essential procurement. The operating rate and market of downstream compound fertilizers are stable, and the purchase of urea is relatively cautious.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market has seen a slight increase in recent days, indicating a relatively optimistic outlook. With a steady increase in demand, it is expected that the short-term domestic urea market will mainly experience fluctuating price increases.

This week (8.3-8.9), the domestic acrylonitrile market continued to decline. The upstream raw material propylene market has fluctuated and fallen, with insufficient cost support. Although several acrylonitrile factories have shut down or reduced production this week, the substantial impact on the site is limited, and the supply is still relatively abundant. The industry lacks confidence in the future, and transactions are mostly biased towards the low-end. As of the weekend, the mainstream negotiation for self pickup in East China ports is 8200 yuan/ton, and the negotiation for short distance delivery in Shandong market is around 8250 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, the operating capacity of domestic acrylonitrile plants has decreased to around 77%.

In terms of raw materials, the domestic propylene market has slightly declined this week, with mainstream closing at 6850-6900 yuan/ton, and transactions in the East China region at 7150-7200 yuan/ton. The international crude oil and polypropylene futures market continued to decline during the week, coupled with expectations of increasing market supply and significant impact from low-priced sources. The lack of support from favorable fundamentals has increased the caution of industry operators. At the same time, the overall shipment of enterprises has not shown significant improvement, making it difficult to form support for price trends. It is expected that propylene prices will mainly consolidate weakly.

Weak demand: This week, some ABS units in China have slightly increased their operating load, while downstream units have been affected by high temperatures and rainy weather, resulting in some shutdowns and holidays. As of the weekend, the average operating rate of the equipment was 65.37%, an increase of 0.30% month on month and a decrease of 18.34% year-on-year.

Overall, the domestic propylene market may experience a high-level decline next week, with insufficient cost support. Although acrylonitrile factories have taken measures such as maintenance or production reduction to alleviate shipment pressure, downstream inquiries tend to be low-end, and the news of production reduction has not boosted the acrylonitrile market. The focus of transactions is expected to continue to weaken, and it is expected that the mainstream negotiation price for self pickup in East China ports will be around 8000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of polyester filament showed a trend of first rising and then falling in July. Currently, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at a price of 7700-8000 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at a price of 9200-9500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at a price of 8200-8400 yuan/ton.

On July 30th, the Brent crude oil benchmark price was $79.05 per barrel. Compared to $85.26 per barrel at the beginning of this month, it has decreased by -7.28%. The WTI crude oil benchmark price is $74.73 per barrel. Compared to the $81.74 per barrel at the beginning of this month, it has decreased by -8.57%. The current crude oil market is facing multiple impacts. Firstly, the capacity policy adjustment of OPEC+has become a key variable, and its production decisions directly affect the market supply situation. Secondly, as the crude oil market shifts from the traditional peak demand season to the off-season, the support of seasonal factors for oil prices gradually weakens. Especially as one of the world’s major crude oil consuming countries, China’s demand changes have a significant leading role in the trend of the oil market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market surged and fell in July. As of July 30th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.25% from the beginning of the month.

Specifically, PTA continued to reduce inventory in early July, coupled with tight supply from some ports and active downstream buying, boosting the PTA market. At the same time, the international crude oil market has risen, providing upward support for PTA costs, leading to a surge in PTA prices at the beginning of the month. However, with the restart of some PTA facilities and an increase in market supply, the tense atmosphere of supply in some ports has eased. Starting from the second half of the month, downstream polyester factories will gradually reduce production and raise prices, reducing the demand for PTA. In addition, the market is generally concerned about weak demand for crude oil, with European and American crude oil futures falling to their lowest level in six weeks. The weak fundamentals and downward cost support have led to a continuous decline in PTA prices. Although some PTA plants were temporarily shut down during this period, the boosting effect on the PTA market was average.

In terms of demand, as the end of the month approaches, downstream users have concentrated their purchases in the early stage, and their willingness to inquire is not strong, resulting in a significant decrease in the production and sales of polyester filament. Recently, polyester filament manufacturers have been adhering to a fixed price model under the background of guaranteed processing fees, which has effectively supported prices; However, on the demand side, downstream factories have poor procurement of raw materials due to high temperatures, high costs, and high inventory, which has dragged down prices.

Business analysts believe that the overall production and sales are flat and difficult to fundamentally change in the short term. The polyester filament market is stable with small fluctuations, and the fundamentals of polyester filament in August are still mainly weak, with a relatively high possibility of price stability.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 4016 yuan/ton. The overall market price of DMF showed a continuous downward trend in July, and rebounded slightly at the end of July. Under cost pressure, manufacturers have a low willingness to offer discounts. DMF prices in July have hit a new historical low, and the overall market needs to be maintained. At the beginning of July, DMF enterprises had more equipment parking and less supply on site. After a brief upward trend, prices continued to decline, and the weak market continued to rebound at the end of July, with a slight rebound.

2、 Cause analysis

In terms of cost, DMF’s main upstream product, liquid ammonia, showed a significant decline in early July. The market transaction atmosphere was weak, and the trading atmosphere did not improve. The overall market price continued to consolidate weakly, with a small amount of shipments being the main focus. The downstream market demand was sluggish, and the mentality of first-time buyers was pessimistic and cautious. Ammonia companies adjusted their prices according to their own situation. Currently, the overall market supply is relatively sufficient, and the operating rate is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with upstream methanol showing a weak downward trend. The spot market is under pressure, and the good news of the equipment is exhausted. Downstream demand continues to not improve, and port inventory continues to increase, rising to historical highs. The supplier’s supply is sufficient, and the overall market’s buying gas is insufficient, causing prices to fall accordingly. Double Upstream prices are weakly declining, and DMF lacks positive support on the cost side.

In terms of demand: July is the off-season for DMF, and downstream agricultural demand is mainly for essential purchases after September. The market transaction atmosphere is insufficient, and it is difficult to boost terminal demand. The pressure on enterprise inventory is high, and the downstream market is developing slowly. The situation of oversupply is obvious. Currently, the profitability of the industry is not optimistic, and some small and medium-sized enterprises can only suspend production indefinitely to cope with the current high inventory and difficult inventory situation. Downstream demand has rebounded at the end of July, and the operating rate of DMF enterprises has declined. The terminal receiving sentiment has not improved significantly.

In terms of production capacity: DMF has gradually increased in recent years and entered a stage of rapid growth. In the past three years, the production capacity growth rate has reached 94.5%. The total domestic DMF production capacity has grown from 910000 tons/year to 1.77 million tons/ton in the past three years, which is close to doubling. However, the development of downstream areas is slow, lacking support from new industries, and the demand follow-up is weak, resulting in the DMF market being in a situation of overcapacity. From 2020 to 2022, DMF prices soared from 10000 yuan to nearly 20000 yuan, and industry profits remained high. Many manufacturers have started to put into production facilities and concentrate production. With the significant increase in production capacity, the situation of oversupply in the market has emerged, The price of DMF continued to decline, and factories began to indefinitely shut down. In the first half of 2024, only one company received news of equipment being put into operation, while many small and medium-sized enterprises received news of parking, resulting in inventory backlog, difficulties in inventory clearance, and intensified market pressure and competition. However, companies can only alleviate their existing inventory pressure by shutting down production.

In terms of inventory: In July, DMF factory inventory was mainly consumed in a narrow range, with slow release of terminal demand and overall weak sales sentiment. Downstream manufacturers maintained their previous production levels, with stable operating rates and limited demand for DMF. Currently, there are still several companies whose equipment has been shut down and the opening time has not been specified. The supply in the factory has slightly decreased, and downstream manufacturers are cautious.

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the DMF market has been experiencing narrow fluctuations recently, with a slight rebound in prices. Currently, the mentality of industry players is somewhat average, mainly cautious and cautious in purchasing for essential needs. Upstream methanol has stopped falling and stabilized, and port performance is relatively strong. The current supply and demand situation has improved, and DMF has received positive support on the cost side. It is expected that DMF prices will mainly operate strongly in the short term, with a price increase range of 30-50 yuan/ton. The mainstream market quotation is around 4000 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite has been weak this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2143 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2136 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% during the week.

This week, the domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range is 2100-2200 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 2100 yuan/ton. The upstream price of sodium metabisulfite is stable, and the market atmosphere for sodium metabisulfite is quiet, with orders being the main source of sales. (The above prices refer to the quotes provided by mainstream domestic enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the sodium metabisulfite market is experiencing sluggish trading, and domestic market prices may mainly fluctuate in the short term.