According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has little fluctuation, and the domestic light rare earth market is mainly stable. On June 18, the rare earth index was 480 points, a decrease of 52.33% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 77.12% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The domestic prices of neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy are mainly stable, with metal neodymium and metal praseodymium prices slightly increasing, while praseodymium neodymium oxide prices slightly decreasing. As of the 19th, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 577500 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 495000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price decrease of 1.49%; The price of neodymium oxide is 505000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price remains unchanged; The price of neodymium metal is 640000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.79%; The price of metal praseodymium is 655000 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 3.15%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 515000 yuan/ton, and the weekly price is stable.

In mid June, the light rare earth market was mainly volatile, and in May, the light rare earth market stopped falling and rebounded. In the early stage, the price of light rare earth had been declining for a long time, and due to the increase in inquiries, the prices quoted by the holders were relatively firm, resulting in an increase in actual transaction prices. However, after June, demand support was insufficient, and the light rare earth market was mainly volatile. At present, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium is still upside down, mainly to ensure the supply of long-term orders. Intermediaries are cautious in replenishing small quantities, and transactions are limited. Recently, both rare earth production and market inventory have decreased, with a tight supply of raw materials and limited market stock. Sellers are cautious in their quotations, and the transaction situation is average. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the overall trend of rare earth product prices is relatively stable.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 713000 and 717000 units respectively in May, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.05 million and 2.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.1% and 46.8%, and a market share of 27.7%. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, and the order and reserve quantities of neodymium iron boron enterprises have increased, laying the foundation for the rise of rare earth prices in the future. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly fluctuate and rise in the short term. In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, in energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning Driven by emerging and traditional demand such as consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has shown a stable trend. According to data monitoring from Business News Agency, the average factory price of PA66 in China on June 16th was 20333.33 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -2.56% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market continued its previous weak trend, and overall, spot prices of various brands remained stable. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry remained at around 60% this week, a narrow decrease compared to the previous period. The coexistence of enterprise construction and maintenance shows a trend of rotating negative reduction, but the on-site supply is relatively sufficient, so the supply contraction is not significant in supporting the spot goods. Poor inventory digestion has affected corporate confidence, and pricing operations are cautious. In the upstream, Adipic acid continued to decline, and raw materials such as pure benzene and Cyclohexanone were still empty. The manufacturer’s inventory and social inventory were both high. The raw material side of PA66 has poor support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is stable with some weaknesses, and terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production. Buyers generally have limited acceptance of high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

The spot price of PA66 remained stable this week. The weakening of the raw material market has led to poor support for the cost side of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and the supply support is not obvious. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak consolidation market in the short term.

This week’s lead market (6.2-6.9) fluctuated upwards, with the average price in the domestic market at 14950 yuan/ton over the weekend and 15055 yuan/ton over the weekend, up 0.7%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. Since the market entered September, the expectations of downstream battery companies have increased during the peak season, driving the price of primary lead to rise. After the peak season ended, prices continued to weaken, and prices fluctuated weakly after the holiday.

In terms of the futures market, Shanghai lead overall rose this week. Over the weekend, the decline in the US dollar led to a general strengthening of the metal market, while London lead rose and Shanghai lead followed suit. In terms of supply and demand, there are some production reduction plans for primary and secondary lead enterprises in the near future, and the market is expected to tighten supply. However, in terms of demand, the seasonal off-season atmosphere is strong, and the news of production reduction of battery enterprises has also been released in the off-season atmosphere, which offset the good news from the supply side. The Spot market as a whole shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. In the future, the Business Society predicts that the main trend will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with limited market volatility in the off-season. We will pay attention to the impact of macro level news on the market in the future.

London Metal Exchange (LME) lead inventory of 36800 tons on June 9, 2023 will be temporarily stable (unit: ton)

On June 11th, the base metal index stood at 1179 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.04% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 83.64% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 15 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 23rd week of 2023 (6.5-6.9), with zinc (3.59%), tin (3.50%), and silver (3.38%) ranking among the top three commodities on the list. There are four products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with magnesium (-1.49%), antimony (-0.61%), and metallic silicon (-0.56%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.9%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic rare earth market price index has slightly increased, while the domestic heavy rare earth market has slightly increased. On June 8, the rare earth index was 476 points, a decrease of 52.73% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 75.65% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The domestic prices of Dysprosium(III) oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, terbium oxide and metal terbium rose slightly. As of September 9, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.115 million yuan/ton, up 1.68% this week; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.07 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.98% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.68 million yuan/ton, with a stable price trend; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly increasing, with the domestic price of terbium oxide reaching 8.3 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium reaching 10.45 million yuan/ton.

This week, the heavy rare earth market rebounded slightly, with an increase in recent inquiries and a tightening of spot supply. Affected by a slight increase in demand, the domestic heavy rare earth market price has slightly increased. The domestic heavy rare earth market is relatively active in terms of inquiry and quotation, with a slight increase in trading volume. However, downstream demand is still weak, metal factory orders are relatively scarce, and magnetic material factories mainly consume existing inventory. In addition, with an increase in rare earth mines from Southeast Asia, the supply of rare earth is sufficient, and the pessimism of the rare earth market remains strong.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 713000 and 717000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 53% and 60.2%, and a market share of 30.1%. From January to May, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 3.05 million and 2.94 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 45.1% and 46.8%, and a market share of 27.7%. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data in May was 4576 tons; From January to May 2023, a total of 20987.2 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%. China’s rare earth commodity exports decreased, which correspondingly suppressed the price increase in the domestic medium and heavy rare earth market.

Future forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises is normal, and downstream demand has not changed much. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth market will fluctuate and rise mainly in the short term. In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demand such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (June 5th): 165.00 yuan/ton

On June 5, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly, 10 yuan/ton lower than that on June 2, with a decrease of 5.71%, 48.44% year-on-year. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream market for polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened.

The domestic hydrochloric acid market price may fluctuate slightly in the future, with an average market price of around 150 yuan/ton.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, from May 29 to June 2, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 7140 yuan/ton to 6612 yuan/ton, a 7.39% decline in the cycle, 25.30% month on month, 41.73% year-on-year. Part of the maintenance equipment has been restored, and production has increased. At the same time, imported cargo has gradually arrived at the port, putting pressure on the supply side of the market. Some downstream industries have reduced their burden, and the demand side has significantly dragged down the inventory pressure of butadiene suppliers. With the continuous decline of Sinopec prices, the domestic butadiene market has rapidly declined.

Cost and crude oil: the market is worried about whether the US Congress will pass the US debt ceiling agreement, overlapping the internal differences of oil producing countries OEPC+, and the oil market is under pressure. On June 2nd, the benchmark price of Brent crude oil for Business Society was 72.60 US dollars per barrel, while the benchmark price of WTI crude oil was 68.09 US dollars per barrel. In terms of naphtha, the cost and demand are weak, with terminal restructuring and weak demand for ethylene. Market trading is limited, and transactions are light. The naphtha market is weak and organized. On June 2, the benchmark price for naphtha in Shangshang Society was 7589.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of butadiene is bearish.

On the supply side, the main production enterprise Sinopec East China Sales Company has reduced the price of butadiene by 1100 yuan/ton, with the latest listed price at 6400 yuan/ton. The restart of Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shenhua Ningxia coal plants, coupled with the continuous arrival of imported cargo at ports, has put pressure on the market supply side. Short term bearish impact on butadiene supply side.

On the demand side, dragged by cost and demand side bearish factors, the downstream synthetic rubber market is weak and declining, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The synchronous downtrend of upstream and downstream products affects the industrial chain profits, making it difficult to effectively move down, and it is difficult to find demand support in the butadiene market. The demand for butadiene is weak.

On June 1st, the closing price of butadiene in Asia was lowered: FOB South Korea was quoted at $725-735 per ton, a decrease of $40 per ton; China CFR reported a decrease of $40 per ton from $775 to $785 per ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe remained stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at $545-555 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 675-685 euros per ton.

In the future market forecast, due to the impact of terminal demand, some downstream industries will experience a decrease in burden, while domestic production and cargo supply are abundant. Butadiene analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic butadiene market will continue to decline weakly.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of the domestic caprolactam market was 12683 yuan/ton on May 1, and 12410 yuan/ton on May 31. The price of the domestic caprolactam market fell 2.16% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of domestic caprolactam market fluctuated and fell this month. The price of raw material pure benzene continued to decline this month, resulting in insufficient cost support. The caprolactam market supply was relatively stable this month, and the supply and demand were relatively balanced. Downstream demand performance is insufficient, procurement is more cautious, and the market is mostly low price transactions. As of May 31, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam in May was 12840 yuan/ton, and the liquid products were of superior quality, which were accepted and withdrawn within six months.

The price of raw material pure benzene has been declining this month. On May 31st, the price was 6573 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.57% compared to 7433 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. This month, crude oil has declined significantly, resulting in a bearish cost outlook. The Asian American arbitrage window has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is high, resulting in a high import volume of pure benzene in May. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is sufficient. The downstream profit level is poor, and the market has a general interest in purchasing pure benzene, which is dragging down the demand side of pure benzene. This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene decreased by 950 yuan/ton to 6500 yuan/ton.

The domestic market of downstream PA6 has weakened this month, and spot prices have generally decreased. The load of domestic polymerization plants is stable, and the supply remains sufficient. In terms of demand, it is average, and stocking tends towards low-priced sources. As of May 31, the average factory price of PA6 in China was 13525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.22% compared to the beginning of the month.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The caprolactam analysts of the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has been continuously lowered recently, and the cost side continues to be negative. Downstream procurement is on demand, and the on-site trading atmosphere is flat. It is expected that caprolactam price will be weak in the short term, and the finishing operation will be dominated.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of May 30, 2023, the reference price of domestic butanone market was 7000 yuan/ton, which was 1316 yuan/ton lower than that of May 1, 2023 (8316 yuan/ton), with a decline of 15.83%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that since May (5.1-5.30), the overall domestic butanone market has shown a weak decline, and the center of gravity of the butanone market has been continuously moving downwards since early May. In the first ten days of May, after the Labor Day, the downstream demand of the domestic butanone market as a whole was still average, and the demand side was insufficient to support butanone. The internal distributors of the butanone factory began to yield profits for shipment, and the price of butanone was reduced by 200-400 yuan/ton. As of May 15, the domestic market value price of butanone was around 7700-8300 yuan/ton.

In late May, the decline of the butanone market continued, the market center continued to move downward, the high level of the butanone raw material end market fell back, and the support for butanone cost was loose. The butanone market fell with the original broad range, the market price fell by 600-800 yuan/ton, and the difference between high and low prices in the butanone market widened. Towards the end of the month, the butanone market experienced slight fluctuations, with both ups and downs occurring on the market. Low end prices rose slightly, while high-end prices continued to yield profits for shipment, gradually narrowing the market price gap between high and low prices. As of May 30, the domestic butanone market price is around 6400-7200 yuan, and the price at the high end is around 7500 yuan/ton.

Analysis of the aftermarket of butanone

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the butanone market is light, and downstream demand is average. Stock preparation is still relatively cautious. The butanone data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the butanone market is mainly adjusted and operated within a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in supply and demand news.

This week (5.22-5.29), the nitrile rubber market slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% from last Monday’s 15550 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have declined, while the cost of nitrile rubber has slightly declined; Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are still relatively flat. This week, some companies have adjusted the factory prices of nitrile rubber. At present, the mainstream market price of Lanhua nitrile 3305 in East China is 14900-15000 yuan/ton; Nandi Nitrile 1052 mainstream reported at 16900-17100 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Sibul nitrile 3365 is 14400~14600 yuan/ton; Shunze nitrile 3355 mainstream reported at 14800-15000 yuan/ton.

This week (5.22-5.29), the prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile decreased, while the cost of nitrile rubber decreased slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 29th, the price of butadiene was 7140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.12% from last Monday’s 7605 yuan/ton; As of May 29th, the price of acrylonitrile decreased by 3.38% from last Monday’s 9625 yuan/ton at 9300 yuan/ton.

At present, the supply of nitrile rubber is basically stable. However, there are rumors in the market that the Lanhua nitrile plant is scheduled for maintenance in mid June, and the supply of nitrile rubber may slightly tighten at that time.

Downstream rubber hose, automotive parts and other rubber product industries mainly have small inquiries and small transactions in the market.

Future forecast: Business Society nitrile analysts believe that the current stable supply of nitrile rubber, coupled with the insignificant increase in downstream inquiries, is a weak trend in the nitrile rubber industry chain; In the later stage, if the nitrile rubber device is shut down for maintenance, the pressure on the nitrile rubber supply surface may be relieved to some extent, and there may be an upward trend for nitrile rubber in the later stage.

In May 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market slightly increased at the end of the month, with the average market price in East China reaching 82125 yuan/ton on the 1st and 82625 yuan/ton on the 26th, an increase of 0.61%.

On May 25th, the antimony commodity index was 115.02, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 5.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.46 points (2023 March 15), and an increase of 144.83% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently shown an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival. It entered a stable period after mid March, entered a downward channel in mid April, and the decline slowed down at the end of April. The trend remained stable in May, and prices entered an upward channel in June. After a brief period of stability in July, the market continued to decline again. After August, the market gradually stabilized and remained stable for 8 consecutive weeks. At the end of October, prices began to decline continuously. After December, prices continued to warm up. After three consecutive weeks of decline in mid to late March, the market fluctuated narrowly.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market remained temporarily stable in May, with a quotation of $12050/ton as of the 26th, which was unchanged from the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market in May followed the overall trend of antimony ingots and remained stable, with a slight monthly increase of 500 yuan/ton driven by the antimony ingot market. Market trading was slightly light, and downstream demand was generally weak.

In May, most of the domestic antimony ingot market remained temporarily stable, with narrow fluctuations within the month, but the amplitude was relatively small, with a monthly increase of about 500 yuan/ton. From the perspective of supply and demand, the market has not changed much this month. Currently, the operation of smelters is relatively stable in terms of supply. However, antimony ingot manufacturers have a strong mentality of being hesitant to sell and selling at high prices recently, and there are few low-priced sources of goods in the market, which has also boosted some market sentiment. However, the actual transaction volume in the market is relatively low. The changes in downstream demand are limited, and the price of antimony oxide has slightly increased with the price of antimony ingots. However, the procurement of antimony ingots remains on demand. The sales situation of antimony oxide remains unchanged, and downstream demand has been performing poorly. At present, the overall wait-and-see attitude of the market in the future is relatively strong, and actual transactions are light. With the mentality of manufacturers supporting prices, it is expected that there will be a slight increase in prices in the future, but it is difficult to have a significant upward space in the absence of downstream support.