This week, the lead market (8.18-8.25) rose first and then fell. The average price in the domestic market was 15940 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 16175 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 1.47%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 7 consecutive weeks.

The futures market rose first and then fell, with a narrow upward trend from Monday to Thursday, and a high decline on Friday. The spot market closely followed the trend of Shanghai Lead, rising first and then falling. Fundamentally, there has been little change in the supply and demand of primary lead in the near future, with some areas experiencing slight tension due to maintenance, weather, and other factors. The recent circulation of waste batteries in the field of recycled lead is still poor, with a tight supply of raw materials and significant cost pressure on recycled lead. The overall price is running at a high level due to supply constraints. In terms of demand, there is currently little change in the operating rate of battery companies. Due to the upward impact of raw material lead ingot prices, the current operating rate is relatively stable. Automotive batteries have slightly rebounded under the influence of gold, silver, and other electric vehicle batteries have not changed much. Downstream markets are generally wait-and-see as raw material prices rise, and under cost pressure, it is expected that the lead ingot market will continue to operate steadily in the near future.

On August 27th, the base metal index stood at 1213 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 24.94% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 88.94% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 19 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 34th week of 2023 (8.21-8.25), with silver (4.42%), dysprosium ferroalloy (3.46%), and magnesium (3.03%) ranking among the top three commodities. There is a total of one product that has decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-2.10%) being the product that experienced a decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 1.21%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8207 yuan/ton on August 17th, and the average price on August 24th was 8421 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 2.61%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) on August 17th was 9075 yuan/ton, and the average price on August 17th was 9450 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.13% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9150 yuan/ton on August 17th, and the average price on August 24th was 9212 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation increased by 0.68%.

Polyethylene prices have mainly increased this week, with LDPE prices experiencing a significant increase. The maintenance of high cost crude oil has a certain supporting effect on the price of polyethylene. The supply of some polyethylene grades is tight, and the prices quoted by production enterprises and traders have increased. The seasonal recovery of orders from agricultural film enterprises has continued, and downstream bargain-hunting and restocking behavior has increased compared to the previous period. The expected improvement in market demand has boosted market sentiment.

The polyethylene futures market has been mainly fluctuating and rising in the past month, which has a certain boosting effect on the spot market.

The polyethylene maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, and the operation of the equipment has increased, with an expected increase in supply side; The peak season of demand for greenhouse film and plastic film is approaching, with an expected increase in demand, boosting market sentiment. It is expected that polyethylene may fluctuate strongly, but the upward space is limited.

Domestic price trend of xylene:

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price trend has temporarily stabilized this week. As of the weekend, the domestic factory price of paraxylene was 9100 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 9100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.11%.

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70% and a relatively normal spot supply. This week’s crude oil price trend has declined, and PX’s external market has slightly declined. As of the 17th, the closing prices in the Asian region are 1006-1008 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1031-1033 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has not changed much. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the external price of PX has slightly decreased. The domestic xylene market price situation is temporarily stable.

This week, crude oil prices have slightly declined. As of the 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $80.39 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $84.12 per barrel. Crude oil has been declining for three consecutive trading days. Recently, due to weak economic data in China, coupled with unstable banking in Europe and America, concerns about global economic growth prospects have put pressure on crude oil, and crude oil prices have continued to decline. However, the decrease in crude oil supply from OPEC and Russia, as well as the improvement in energy demand, have supported oil prices. On Thursday, the crude oil market closed higher, and overall, the crude oil market price slightly decreased. As a result, the domestic xylene market trend has temporarily stabilized.

The downstream PTA market price has slightly declined this week, with an average PTA market price of around 5870 yuan/ton as of the 18th. The price has slightly declined by 0.71% this week. PTA supply has increased, with the PTA operating rate rising to around 83.5% this week. PTA factory inventory has slightly increased, and PTA market prices have slightly declined. Downstream polyester is mainly in need of restocking, and demand end textile enterprises have staged restocking actions. However, with the arrival of the high temperature season, textile and clothing consumption is in the off-season stage, with insufficient terminal orders. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving start-up rate is around 63%, and downstream PTA market prices are fluctuating and decreasing, while PX price trends are temporarily stable.

Business Society PX analyst Chen Ling believes that the current oil market is a long short game, with crude oil prices maintaining a high level in the short term. However, the downstream PTA market trend is fluctuating and declining, coupled with weak demand follow-up in the textile industry, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. Overall, it is expected that the price trend in the xylene market will be stable in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the mainstream prices of styrene in Shandong have been fluctuating and rising recently. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8533.33 yuan/ton, while on the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8708.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.05%. The price has decreased by 3.76% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has increased. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has mainly increased in the past two months, and the market has continued to fluctuate and increase this week. International oil prices have risen, cost support is good, styrene inventory is low, and the market is rising.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene has decreased this week, with Sinopec’s pure benzene price at 7750 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions are synchronized). The atmosphere in the East China market is poor, and buying and wait-and-see are obvious. In the end of the day, prices rebounded due to the stop of crude oil decline. The trading mentality in the Shandong market is weak, and the intention of refineries to reduce prices and promote sales is obvious, driving the focus of transactions to continue to shift downwards.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets for styrene fluctuated slightly. At the beginning of this week, the average price of PS was 9300 yuan/ton, while on weekends, the average price of PS was 9366 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.72% and a decrease of 13.67% compared to the same period last year. Crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, while styrene rose overnight, boosting the market atmosphere. Buying sentiment was cautious, and merchants had significant resistance to shipping. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 8750 and 9600 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 9300 and 9950 yuan/ton.

The EPS market has been stable this week, and according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of ordinary materials this week is 9775.00 yuan/ton. The terminal profit is meager, there is a clear resistance to high market prices, and the follow-up of buying is limited. The overall transaction is weak, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market may mainly have a narrow and weak trend.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has risen, and the overall high level of upstream three materials in ABS has provided reasonable support for the cost side of ABS. The petrochemical plant started relatively horizontally in the early stage, and market inventory has been partially digested. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a narrow consolidation market.

At present, the news shows that the crude oil market is improving and the cost support is good. The unexpected shutdown of the styrene plant will lead to a short-term reduction in domestic supply. Under the dual benefits, it is expected that the short-term styrene market will fluctuate and rise mainly.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, copper prices have fluctuated and risen this week. As of the end of this week, the spot copper quotation is 68906.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% from the 68236.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 10.52%.

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, in the past three months, it has fallen by 4% and increased by 8%, with copper prices showing a slight increase recently.

Macroscopically, US economic data has been improving recently, with the People’s Bank of China lowering its MLF rate by 15 basis points and reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points, respectively, boosting market sentiment and preference for a rebound. China’s central bank report: resolutely prevent the risk of exchange rate overshoot, support the resolution of local debt risks, adjust real estate policies in a timely manner, boost market confidence, appreciate the renminbi, and recover the prevalence of non-ferrous metals.

Supply side: The mining side remains abundant. The centralized maintenance of domestic smelting will be completed in August, and production will return to a relatively high level. However, it will face centralized maintenance again in September. Long orders of Russian copper continue to flow in, while the arrival pace of Lomo copper is lagging due to the impact of African transportation capacity. Some smelters have export plans.

On the demand side: In July, both Southern Power Grid and State Grid saw an increase in new orders, and some orders will be delivered in August, boosting the industry’s operating rate. Some air conditioning and refrigeration enterprises have entered the stage of equipment maintenance and vacation, and consumer support has weakened. The policy of ensuring the delivery of real estate has boosted the completion data, but the front-end data is still weak and faces the risk of weak follow-up. It is still necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. In terms of electronics, demand is slowly recovering.

In summary, the domestic policy efforts continue to increase to benefit the market. In August, the domestic maintenance is completed, and production is expected to return to a new high. Demand is expected to be strong and weak, with copper prices expected to fluctuate mainly.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of August 14th, the average price of domestic industrial grade premium cyclohexane was 7066.67 yuan/ton, a narrow upward trend compared to the same period last week, with an overall increase of 3.41%. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and shipments are currently slow.

This week, the market price of cyclohexane has been operating in a narrow range, with the mainstream price around 7066.67 yuan/ton. Compared to the same period last week, the price has remained stable, with mainstream manufacturers maintaining a quotation range of around 7000 yuan/ton and a stable operating rate. Downstream demand procurement is the main focus, and the negotiation atmosphere is flat.

Chemical Index: On August 13th, the chemical index stood at 874 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 37.57% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 46.15% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Cyclohexane analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the stable operation of the cyclohexane market is the main trend, with a narrow range leaning towards strong operation.

Product name: Sulfuric acid

Latest price (August 14th): 210.00 yuan/ton

On August 14th, the domestic sulfuric acid market price significantly increased, with a price increase of 32 yuan/ton compared to August 11th, an increase of 17.98%, and a year-on-year decrease of 53.98%. The upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with increased cost support. The downstream ammonium sulfate market has slightly increased, and downstream customers have a good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. Duo Zhong Li is good, and the product trend is upward.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 230 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizer DOP increased significantly this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 11th, the price of DOP was 11600 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.19% compared to the price of 11133.33 yuan/ton on August 4th. Costs have risen, supply has contracted, and demand is cold. This week, the price of plasticizer DOP has significantly increased.

Plasticizer companies are experiencing profit losses, plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low loads, and multiple plasticizer companies are experiencing equipment shutdowns. The operating rate of plasticizers has decreased to around 40%, leading to a contraction in plasticizer supply. Downstream demand is cold, high prices of plasticizers are difficult to pass down, and the accumulation of plasticizers has increased.

The price of isooctanol has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of isooctanol on August 11th was 11240 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.23% compared to the price of 10783.33 yuan/ton on August 4th. Planned and unexpected shutdowns of domestic octanol plants have led to a tightening of the supply of isooctanol and a continuous increase in octanol prices. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. This week, the price of isooctanol has surged, and the cost of plasticizer DOP raw materials has increased. As the price of isooctanol has risen to a high level, buying sentiment has become cautious. In mid to late August, two sets of isooctanol units in Shandong and Jiangsu are planned to restart, and the supply side of the isooctanol market is expected to be loose. However, there is insufficient support for the sustained rise of isooctanol in the future.

The market of raw material phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products of the Business Society, as of August 11th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 8750 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.34% compared to the price of 8550 yuan/ton on August 4th. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, and the operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride is maintained at over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is normal. Recently, there has been an increase in export orders for phthalic anhydride, and the supply of goods has been slightly tight. In addition, the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has risen, leading to a significant increase in the price of ortho benzene and ortho phthalic anhydride. The transaction situation of phthalic anhydride is good, and the market situation is rising. The cost of raw materials has increased, and the driving force for the cost increase of plasticizers has increased.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the expected recovery of isooctanol production is insufficient support for the sustained rise in isooctanol prices. The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and increases, and the support for the increase in DOP cost of plasticizer products still exists; Downstream PVC procurement enthusiasm is cold, and demand for plasticizers is weakening; The operating rate of plasticizer enterprises is low, and the supply of plasticizers is shrinking. In the future, there is insufficient support for rising costs, the contraction of plasticizer supply and weak demand, and insufficient support for the rise of plasticizer DOP. It is expected that plasticizer DOP prices will fluctuate and consolidate at high levels.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 10, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8433 yuan/ton. Compared with August 6 (reference price of propylene glycol 7700), the price increased by 733 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.52%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week (8.6-8.10), the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole has seen a broad upward trend. During the week, the supply side of propylene glycol in China was tight, and the sales of propylene glycol manufacturers remained stable. New orders were traded well on the market, and the cash flow of propylene glycol was tight. The operators had a good mentality. The upward trend in the raw material propylene oxide market also provides support for the cost of propylene glycol. Therefore, with the support of supply and demand as well as cost, the center of gravity of the propylene glycol market continues to rise, with a price increase of around 500 to 800 yuan/ton during the week. As of August 10th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is referenced around 8300 to 8500 yuan/ton, while the higher end price is referenced around 8800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere in the propylene glycol market is good, and effective support on the market is still available. It is expected that in the short term, the overall high and stable operation of the domestic propylene glycol market will be the main trend, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. The average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China this week is 2950.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 25.00% year-on-year. On August 6th, the calcium carbide commodity index was 77.29, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 63.58% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 39.29% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly fluctuated and increased. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal is around 1100 yuan/ton, and the price is temporarily stable, with average cost support. This week, the PVC market price increased from 5992.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6058.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.10%. Weekend prices fell by 9.16% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly increased, and downstream customers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide. The downstream PVC market has a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate or rise in the aftermarket

In mid July, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate and rise in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream PVC market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and rise in a narrow range in mid July, with consolidation being the main focus.