According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market for polyaluminum chloride has recently seen a slight increase. The solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China was mainly quoted at around 1772.50 yuan/ton on the 18th, an increase of 0.35% from the quoted price of 1778.75 yuan/ton on the 26th. Water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas have normal production, sufficient market inventory, downstream procurement on demand, stable raw material hydrochloric acid prices, and a consolidation of the polyaluminum chloride market.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has remained stable recently, and as of December 26th, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is 112.50 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidating at a low level recently, with average cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride prices have fluctuated and risen, and the downstream purchasing willingness is good.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of liquefied natural gas in China has recently increased significantly. Frequent cold air attacks in China have been affected by cooling weather in many areas, leading to a significant increase in downstream replenishment demand and a continuous rise in liquefied natural gas prices. After snowfall, traffic flows smoothly. In terms of sea and gas, some receiving stations have raised prices. The slight increase in raw gas prices has increased cost support, driving up liquid prices.

Market forecast: This week, raw material prices remain stable, the fuel liquefied natural gas market has significantly increased, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride has fluctuated. On the supply side, Chinese polyaluminum chloride manufacturers are producing normally and have sufficient inventory; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride may be dominated by consolidation.

Zinc prices have fluctuated and risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 25th, the zinc price was 21472 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 21022 yuan/ton on December 17th. The US sanctions against Russian zinc mining giants, coupled with macroeconomic data support, have led to a general rise in the non-ferrous metal sector, causing zinc prices to fluctuate and rise this week.

US sanctions against Russian zinc mining giants

The Office of Foreign Assets Control, a subsidiary of the US Department of Commerce, released the latest sanctions on Tuesday, with Russian mining giant Sviblov becoming the latest business person to be blacklisted. The companies controlled by Sviblov dominate the gold mining industry in Russia, and those affected by Sviblov sanctions include Ozernoye, a company that is developing one of the world’s largest zinc mines. The production of this mine is expected to account for 4% of global production, and if operated at full capacity, the project will become one of the largest zinc mines in the world. Affected by sanctions, the spot price of zinc on the London Metal Exchange rose slightly by 1.4% on Tuesday, while domestic zinc prices followed suit.

The non-ferrous metal sector generally rose

The recent sharp decline in the US dollar index has made metals denominated in the US dollar cheaper for holders of other currencies. The non-ferrous metal market is favorable, while the non-ferrous metal prices are generally rising, and the zinc market is favorable.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the US sanctions against Russia have reduced expectations of zinc mine supply, which has affected the rise in zinc prices; However, due to the impact of US economic data, the US dollar index has fallen, and the non-ferrous metal sector is positive. The prices of non-ferrous metals have generally risen, while zinc prices have followed the rise of sector prices. In the future, the impact of reduced zinc ore supply in Russia may continue. However, in recent months, there has been a significant oversupply of zinc ore, and the overall zinc market is still oversupplied. The sustained rise in zinc prices lacks support, and it is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and consolidate.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price remained stable this week, with a price of 282.00 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 4.94% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly declined, downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have remained stable this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the sulfur market in the upstream has slightly declined, with sulfur prices dropping from 1110.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1090.00 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 1.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 24.83% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream market for monoammonium phosphate has slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 3500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 3466.67 yuan/ton over the weekend, a decrease of 0.95%, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.03% over the weekend. The downstream titanium dioxide market is consolidating at a low level, with a market price of 16483.33 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 3.45% year-on-year. Overall, the downstream market for sulfuric acid has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late December, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The upstream sulfur market has started to decline slightly, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has slightly declined, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.

The melamine market has remained stable this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7250.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from Monday’s price.

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the reference price of urea on December 21 was 2558.33, a decrease of 1.67% compared to December 1 (2601.67). Recently, the market price of raw material urea has slightly declined, and the cost face is generally supported by the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: Some enterprises on the supply side have shut down their facilities, resulting in a reduction in overall market supply compared to the previous period. Downstream hoarding is concentrated towards the end of the year, and enterprises have sufficient orders to be issued. Market trading is orderly, and the melamine market is operating steadily with a strong bias towards stability.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is limited, the market supply is tight, and companies are orderly shipping early orders. The market atmosphere is still good, and it is expected that the melamine market may operate steadily, with a stronger trend in the short term. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

The price of aluminum fluoride has dropped this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 21st, the domestic quotation for aluminum fluoride was 10825 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.14% from the price of aluminum fluoride on December 14th, which was 10950 yuan/ton. Aluminum fluoride enterprises have temporarily stabilized production, with sufficient supply of aluminum fluoride. Raw material prices have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased. This week, aluminum fluoride prices have fallen.

Reduced raw material costs

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the price of fluorite was 3550 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 0.70% compared to the price of 3575 yuan/ton on December 14th; Compared to the quoted price of 3612.50 yuan/ton on December 1st, it has decreased by 1.73%. The downstream demand for fluorite is sluggish, the fluorite market is weakening, and the price of fluorite is weak and falling. The prices of raw materials have fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials has decreased.

Market Overview and Forecast

Business Society’s aluminum fluoride industry analyst believes that the price of fluorite has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost of aluminum fluoride has decreased; Aluminum fluoride enterprises have stable operations and sufficient supply of aluminum fluoride. In the future, the supply and demand of aluminum fluoride are relatively balanced, and the cost of raw materials has decreased. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

Recently (12.11-12.18), the market for butadiene rubber has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34% from 11900 yuan/ton on the 11th.

The price of raw material butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has significantly declined. Downstream tire factories are operating steadily, and demand for butadiene rubber is slightly weak. In addition, the supply side has slightly decreased, and the pressure on butadiene rubber is slightly eased. The overall transaction volume of butadiene rubber in the off-season is light. As of December 18th, PetroChina Northeast Sales Company’s Daqing Shunding Northeast Warehouse has raised prices by 11600 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of Shunding rubber in the East China region is reported at 11500-11900 yuan/ton; Private polybutadiene rubber costs 11200-11600 yuan/ton.

Recently (12.11-12.18), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly decreased, and Maoming Petrochemical’s butadiene rubber plant will be shut down for maintenance starting from the 13th.

Recently (12.11-12.18), the price of butadiene has significantly declined, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has decreased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the price of butadiene was 8058 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.15% from 8407 yuan/ton on December 11th.

Recently (12.11-12.18), the natural rubber market has fluctuated and fallen, and the atmosphere in the rubber market is weak. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of December 18th, the price was at 12380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% from 12470 yuan/ton on December 11th, and the lowest point in the cycle was at 12320 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Recently (12.11-12.18), tire production has been stable with all steel tires, and the demand for rubber is mainly weak. It is understood that as of mid December 2023, the operating load of all steel tires in rubber tire enterprises in Shandong Province was 5.9%; The operating load of semi steel tires in domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Market forecast: According to analysts from Business Society, the cost of butadiene rubber has significantly decreased and the demand has weakened during the off-season. Although Maoming Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance recently, the overall supply of butadiene rubber is still loose, and it is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will be weak and consolidate in the future.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of December 18, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8733 yuan/ton. Compared with December 12 (reference price of n-butanol was 8433 yuan/ton), the price increased by 267 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.56%. Compared with December 1st (reference price of n-butanol at 7766 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 967 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.02%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (12.12-12.18), the domestic market for n-butanol in Shandong region has shown an upward trend. In early December, with the support of both supply and demand, the n-butanol market saw a broad upward trend. Subsequently, after downstream demand calmed down, the market for n-butanol fell back from a high level. Starting from December 12th, the n-butanol market has seen another upward trend, with the market’s focus constantly moving towards high levels. As of December 18th, the price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong region has been around 8700-8800 yuan/ton, with an increase of over 3% in seven days.

Analysis of factors supporting the upward trend of n-butanol market:

In terms of supply: Recently, some regions in China have temporarily shut down their n-butanol plants for maintenance, leading to a reduction in expected supply within the n-butanol plant. The pressure on the supply side is relatively low, and the supply side provides support for the n-butanol market.

In terms of demand: Recently, due to weather and other factors, logistics and transportation conditions in some regions of China have been restricted, and some downstream regions have started early stocking. Downstream demand circulation has improved, and the demand side has boosted the n-butanol market.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the exchange is still good, and the mentality of the operators is good. The inquiry atmosphere on the exchange is mild. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in supply and demand.

The price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 15th, the price of DOP was 11716.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.78% from the price of 11808.33 yuan/ton on December 8th. The prices of raw materials have stopped rising and fallen, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has decreased. This week, DOP prices have fluctuated and fallen.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell this week

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of isooctanol surged in early December, but this week, the rise of isooctanol supported a decline, and the price of isooctanol fell from its high point. As of December 15th, the quoted price of isooctanol was 12650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.36% compared to the quoted price of 12825 yuan/ton on December 8th. In early December, the operating rate of downstream plasticizers increased at a high level, leading to active procurement by major plasticizer factories. As a result, demand for rigid isooctanol increased, resulting in a significant increase in isooctanol products; As the price of isooctanol rises, plasticizer manufacturers experience a decrease in profits and losses, the operating load of plasticizers decreases, the high price support for isooctanol is insufficient, the demand for isooctanol decreases, and the high price of isooctanol falls back.

Future expectations

Business Society plasticizer product data analysts believe that currently, the DOP market for plasticizers is mainly characterized by short-term cyclical transactions. The high start of plasticizer production combined with the decrease in octanol production has led to a significant increase in octanol prices and an increase in plasticizer prices; As the price of octanol rises to a high level, plasticizer factories gradually begin to lose money, the operating load decreases, leading to a decrease in demand for octanol, a decline in the price of isooctanol, and a decline in the high price of plasticizers. Overall, in the cost demand game, short-term DOP prices are mainly volatile and consolidating. However, as plasticizer manufacturers increase losses and inventory accumulates, the enthusiasm for plasticizer production decreases. In the medium to long term, it is expected that plasticizer DOP prices will fluctuate and fall.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined this week. As of the weekend, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 10750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.15% from the beginning of the week price of 10766.67 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.73%.

Supply side: The domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined this week, with the mainstream negotiated price in various regions of the country being 10600-11000 yuan/ton. Recently, some units have been shut down and waiting for the market, and the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much. The order situation of manufacturers for hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the production of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Some manufacturers have accumulated inventory, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly decreased.

Cost side: The domestic fluorite price trend has declined, with an average price of 3575 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 1.04% from the beginning of the week’s price of 3612.5 yuan/ton. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tense mining situation in upstream mines, with some areas experiencing mining accidents. Fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and some mines are conducting safety hazard inspections, The difficulty of starting a fluorite mine has increased. With the decrease in temperature and the increase in rainy and snowy weather in the northern region, fluorite production is limited. However, in recent times, there has been strong resistance from downstream towards high priced fluorite, and the procurement situation has been average. The price of fluorite has decreased, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid has continued to decline.

The price trend of sulfuric acid in the market has declined this week, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price at 288 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 4.64%. The upstream sulfur market of sulfuric acid has declined, with some cost reduction. Downstream customers of sulfuric acid have decreased their purchasing enthusiasm for sulfuric acid, and the price trend of sulfuric acid has declined this week. As a result, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market has slightly declined.

On the demand side, the market trend of refrigerant products downstream of the terminal is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry remains low. The procurement of raw materials is not active, and the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high. Downstream procurement needs to follow up, and some enterprises have absorbed quotas in advance. The monthly average quantity of remaining quotas is relatively small, and the price trend of R22 is mainly falling. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, but the actual high-end quotations have fallen, and the purchasing atmosphere has cooled down. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 26000-28000 yuan/ton. The demand for the refrigerant industry during the off-season is insufficient, and transactions are relatively flat. The refrigerant industry is maintaining low production, and demand is poor, making it difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to improve.

Market forecast: In the near future, the upstream raw material fluorite market will slightly decline, and the price of sulfuric acid may show a downward trend; The operating rate of the downstream refrigerant industry market remains at a low level, and there is poor enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. In the short term, hydrofluoric acid prices will remain at a low and volatile level.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic sulfuric acid market prices have slightly declined this week. The price of sulfuric acid has dropped from 292.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 288.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.37%, and the weekend price has dropped by 4.53% year-on-year.

The upstream market is consolidating at a high level, while downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, and the inventory levels of manufacturers are average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has stabilized at a high level, with sulfur prices at 1060.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, prices fell by 29.96% year-on-year. The upstream market is consolidating at a high level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium phosphate market has remained stable at a high level, with a market price of 3500.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price decreased by 1.41% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market is consolidating at a low level, with a market price of 16650.00 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, the price increased by 4.50% year-on-year. The downstream market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to late December, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The downstream titanium dioxide market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream customers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. The upstream sulfur market is consolidating at a high level, with average cost support. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand, raw materials, and other factors, and the price of sulfuric acid may fluctuate slightly and fall.