1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was around 1021 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.13% compared to last year. On November 21, the chemical index was 847 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.50% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.64% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)/p>

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 990-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Jiangsu region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1020-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. In Inner Mongolia region, the price of caustic soda is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 2800-2900 yuan/ton (converted to 100%) for 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. This week, the maintenance and supply of caustic soda facilities in some areas are tight, supporting the current selling price. Downstream purchases are mainly based on demand.

According to the price monitoring of Shengyi Society, in the 46th week of 2024 (11.11-11.15), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell zero in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are baking soda (-1.40%), caustic soda (-0.29%), and PVC (-0.19%). The average increase or decrease this week is -0.33%.

Business Society analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating, and some areas of caustic soda facilities are undergoing maintenance. Downstream customers are mainly cautious and watching, and the overall supply and demand game is expected to maintain a consolidating operation of caustic soda in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

This week, the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuated and rose

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the DOP price was 9438.75 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 2.16% compared to the DOP price of 9238.75 yuan/ton on November 10th. The demand for plasticizer DOP is stable, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and rises. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is stable, and the off-season for downstream PVC is approaching. The demand for plasticizers has fallen, and the high price of plasticizer DOP has fallen.

Downstream demand declines

Entering the second half of the year, downstream PVC product companies are gradually experiencing a decline in production. As we enter November, which is traditionally the off-season in the market, downstream PVC production is expected to decrease. As the weather in the north gradually turns colder, demand is weakening; The downstream market has fallen, and the downward pressure on plasticizers has increased.

Raw material costs fluctuate and rise

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 18th, the price of isooctanol was 9633.33 yuan/ton, a fluctuating increase of 3.96% compared to the price of 9266.67 yuan/ton on November 10th. This week, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises decreased, the supply of isooctanol decreased, and the price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose. The supply of isooctanol has decreased and demand has remained stable. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and risen. The cost of plasticizers has increased, and the price of plasticizer DOP has fluctuated and risen.

Future expectations

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s plasticizer products, in terms of cost, the price of isooctanol has risen, the price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and stabilized, and the cost of plasticizer DOP has increased; In terms of demand, the off-season is approaching, and downstream production and inventory are expected to decrease, leading to a decline in demand for plasticizers. In the future, as the supply of isooctanol recovers, raw material prices fluctuate and fall, the expected cost of plasticizers decreases, and the downward pressure on isooctanol increases; The off-season is approaching, and demand expectations are decreasing, leading to a decrease in costs and weak demand. It is expected that the price of plasticizer DOP will weakly decline in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the xylene market first rose and then fell in October 2024. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic xylene market price fell from 5960 yuan/ton to 5940 yuan/ton, with a cumulative price drop of 0.34% during the period.

In the first half of October, the mixed xylene market first rose and then fell. On October 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 5950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.17% from 5960 yuan/ton on October 1st. After the holiday, the mixed xylene market saw an overall rebound, with external and crude oil markets rising during the holiday period, driving the domestic market to make up for the holiday. The mixed xylene market saw a rebound of about 5%. However, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market is generally low, lacking downstream support, and the mixed xylene market lacks the driving force to continue rising. Subsequently, with the decline of the external market and the general correction of the domestic market, the market maintains rigid demand trading, and prices continue to decline. Currently, the overall operation is weak.

In the second half of the month, the overall xylene market has declined this cycle, and the poor performance of the post holiday crude oil market has dragged down market sentiment. The overall supply of xylene in the market is relatively loose, and some facilities in Shandong have been put into operation, as well as overall high port inventories. In terms of demand, the downstream market tends to be rigid and weak, which has dragged down market sentiment. Spot market offers continued to decline during the week, and refineries also actively shipped, resulting in a gradual decline in market prices.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market rose first and then fell during this cycle, with international crude oil futures closing down as of October 29th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $67.21 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.73 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, which is partly due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market’s panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. The crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: During this cycle, Sinopec’s xylene quotation first rose and then fell. Currently, the company is operating normally, with stable plant production and sales. The company’s quotation remains unchanged from the previous day. As of October 30th, East China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5850-5900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5900-6000 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Phthalic anhydride and p-xylene markets continue to decline

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 30th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 7012.50 yuan/ton, which first increased and then decreased by 2.60% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride of 7200 yuan/ton on October 1st; Compared to October 9th, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped by 7400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.24%. After the holiday, phthalic anhydride customers replenished their inventory, and the price of phthalic anhydride briefly increased. As the replenishment ended, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell; In October, the production of phthalic anhydride equipment remained stable at a high level, with sufficient supply of phthalic anhydride. However, the actual transactions in the phthalic anhydride market were limited, resulting in oversupply and significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride prices; The price of ortho benzene has fallen, the cost of ortho phthalic anhydride has decreased, the price of industrial naphthalene has fluctuated and fallen, and the cost support of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has weakened. The oversupply has led to a decrease in costs, and the overall price of phthalic anhydride has fluctuated and fallen.

On October 31st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7300 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the price on September 30th, 2024. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $829-831/ton as of October 30th, a cumulative decrease of $13/ton from $842-844/ton at the end of September.

Market forecast: The crude oil market is expected to operate weakly in the near future, with weak cost support. In terms of supply, port inventories in East China have been accumulating recently, while plant construction in Shandong has increased. Refineries have accumulated inventory, which has a negative impact on the market. On the demand side, the trend of refined oil products is weak, and the purchasing intention is biased towards rigid demand. Overall, the recent bearish impact on the spot market is significant, and it is expected that the xylene market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 11666 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11533/ton, a decrease of 1.14% in price.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have fallen this month, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market is sluggish, and industry insiders mainly focus on inquiries, with a particular emphasis on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market lacks favorable support, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

Isooctanol prices fluctuated and consolidated this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of isooctanol was 9200 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and stabilized compared to the price of isooctanol on October 18th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the price of isooctanol at 8706.67 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with an increase of 5.67%. This week, the supply and demand of isooctanol are relatively balanced, with expected sales of orders from isooctanol manufacturers. The market support for isooctanol still exists, and the price of isooctanol is fluctuating and consolidating.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and stabilize

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9226.25 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and increased by 0.14% compared to the DOP price of 9213.75 yuan/ton on October 18th last weekend; Compared to October 1st, the DOP price of 8988.75 yuan/ton first rose and then fell, with a 2.64% increase. The price of isooctanol is fluctuating and stabilizing, while the cost of DOP is temporarily stable. DOP manufacturers are selling orders, and downstream demand and procurement are generally active. The price of plasticizer DOP is relatively stable. Plasticizer demand support, octanol demand support still exists, and octanol prices are fluctuating and stabilizing.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that downstream customers have increased resistance to high priced isooctanol, and market purchasing enthusiasm is average, resulting in fluctuating and consolidating isooctanol prices; Isooctanol manufacturers are operating steadily, with sufficient supply of isooctanol. In the future, the supply and demand of isooctanol market are relatively balanced, and the price of isooctanol is consolidating.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the week was 11633 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of the week was 11666 tons, with a price increase of 0.29%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers’ quotations have slightly increased this week, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. Market inquiries are active, with a focus on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market urgently needs positive support, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

In September, the dichloromethane market fluctuated and tended to rise. In mid September, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong reached a high point of 2780 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.13%, and then fell back. In late September, it remained stable and tended to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2720 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 4.82%.

The cost of raw materials has slightly increased, and the focus of the methanol liquid chlorine market has shifted upward in September; The operating rate of methane chloride units has slightly decreased. In the first half of the month, the dichloromethane market continued to rise, but the demand side’s holiday replenishment heat was average, and the overall market transaction atmosphere was weak. Downstream customers basically maintained their urgent needs for replenishment, and the company’s shipment volume significantly decreased, while inventory began to grow rapidly. Returning after the holiday, the overall market demand is mainly following suit, with manufacturers lowering prices one after another to increase market activity, and low prices driving a relatively optimistic atmosphere for market transactions. In the second half of the month, the market is stable and trending upwards, with factory prices slightly rising. As the holiday approaches, procurement and replenishment are basically over, and the ability to receive goods is limited. As of September 30th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2700-2740 yuan/ton.

On the supply side: With the low load and maintenance recovery of the equipment, the domestic methane chloride production has slightly rebounded compared to the beginning of the month.

In terms of raw materials, the methanol market in September first fell and then rose. The overall supply of goods is abundant, but the growth rate on the demand side is relatively limited. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the spot price of methanol was 2478.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.07% from the beginning of the month. The center of gravity of liquid chlorine prices has shifted upwards, and the market trading atmosphere has improved.

In terms of demand: Dichloromethane has a wide range of applications and plays an important role in various industries. The popularity of double section replenishment procurement is average, and overall essential procurement is the main focus. In the first half of the year, downstream refrigerant R32 was overused by air conditioning companies, and the demand continued to increase, easing the tight supply situation in the market. The quota policy had a significant impact on R32, and the market price of R32 rose to around 38000 yuan/ton. Channel procurement did not fall back, and the market remained strong. Positive support for dichloromethane formation.

Business analysts believe that the rise in raw material prices will support the dichloromethane market, and major factories will stop for maintenance after the holiday, which will support the upward trend of the dichloromethane market. However, due to the significant decrease in demand after the holiday replenishment, the bearish market is expected to rise, and the dichloromethane market is expected to consolidate or move slightly upward.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of the month was 11750 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11666/ton, a decrease of 0.71%.

Domestic manufacturers’ quotations for activated carbon have been weak this month, with the ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. The market is mainly driven by orders, and prices lack favorable support. The focus is on market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in applications such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially for gold charcoal, which receives a lot of inquiries from the African market; Fruit shell charcoal can be shipped smoothly from low to medium index sources. There is a recent rebound trend in imported carbide materials, and the industry should pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The activated carbon market is experiencing slow sales, and it is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 20th, the aggregated MDI maintained stable operation. The mainstream quotation for Shanghai goods (44V20, M20S, 5005) was 18000-18100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation for domestic goods (PM200) was 18200-18400 yuan/ton. The supplier’s news is quiet, and traders maintain a pace of shipment. The follow-up of new orders is weak and slowly consolidating. It is expected that the MDI market will consolidate and operate in the short term.

According to the data from the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the hydrogen peroxide market has weakened and fallen this week due to loose supply. On September 9th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 833 yuan/ton, and on September 13th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 816 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2% in price.

Loose supply of hydrogen peroxide leads to a decline in the market

This week, the domestic supply of hydrogen peroxide remained loose, and the demand for terminal procurement remained stable. Negative factors suppressed the market, and the hydrogen peroxide market weakened and fell, with an overall quotation of 700-900 yuan/ton. On September 13th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Shandong region was around 700-800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Hebei region was 750 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Anhui region is around 900 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable; The average price of hydrogen peroxide in the Fujian region is 1100 yuan/ton, which remains stable.

Business Society Chemical Analysts believe that by the end of September, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals will increase, and the future hydrogen peroxide market is expected to stop falling and rise.